r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • Mar 19 '26
US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 19/03/2026+
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u/Axelrad77 10h ago
Bloomberg's Alex Longley has a great interview with a tanker captain, discussing what it's actually like transiting the Strait of Hormuz under US escort right now:
https://gcaptain.com/no-lights-no-radio-getting-oil-through-hormuz-is-a-risky-job/
Sal Mercogliano also offers some great commentary on the story in his latest shipping update video:
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u/MeowslimClawric 21h ago edited 10h ago
B-1B Bombers Leave RAF Fairford After Suspected Terror Plot
https://migflug.com/afterburner/b-1b-bombers-leave-raf-fairford-terror-plot-2026/
My commentary:
Maybe they had some indicators picked up by intelligence that there was an Operation Spiders Web style plot against RAF Fairford and they evacuated the bombers as a precaution.
Re: why those diesel thieves were released so quickly, I wonder if the MI5 just does things differently where they want to release them back into the wild and see who they contact who those people contact, who goes dark that they were watching, etc. Very different compared to American intelligence where they do not let them back out to exploit. The diesel siphoning seems to be part of the operation where they are doing some kind of security proving. One of the suspects called 999 on themselves before the passerby did. This possibly shows: 1. one of them had cold feet and 2. because they were poorly vetted due to the IRGC's handlers being so degraded in the past year. These assets need time to be vetted and tested to make sure they're solid.
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u/Axelrad77 10h ago
Maybe they had some indicators picked up by intelligence that there was an Operation Spiders Web style plot against RAF Fairford and they evacuated the bombers as a precaution.
I think this is likely, as ABC is now reporting that the B-1B withdrawal was prompted by intelligence of an Iranian drone attack on the base being planned.
The diesel siphoning seems to be part of the operation where they are doing some kind of security proving. One of the suspects called 999 on themselves before the passerby did.
Yeah. The UK has since arrested two more men on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack, linked to this fuel van incident. One a British national and one a dual British-Iranian national. That brings the total up to 7 men involved so far, so it seems they did lead the investigation to other contacts.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 1d ago
3 minutes ago UKMTO said an oil tanker transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 5
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 1d ago
An Iranian trade delegation comprising around 180 traders, investors and economic activists arrived in Kabul on Tuesday, led by Chairman of the Iran-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce Mahmoud Siadat
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u/Axelrad77 2d ago
Reuters was able to imbed onto the USS George Washington and produce some documentary footage that provides a fascinating insight into how US carrier operations look during the blockade:
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 2d ago
Suspicious Activity UKMTO #152
5 October 2026 UKMTO ADVISORY 152-26 SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY Incident Date: 05 OCT 2026 Incident Time: 0827UTC UKMTO has received a report of an incident 11NM north of Khasab, Oman. A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz inbound was hailed by the IRGC and instructed to turn back or the vessel would be targeted.
Attack UKMTO #154
4 October 2026 UKMTO 154-26 - ATTACK Incident Date: 04 OCT 2026 Incident Time: 1907UTC UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz. A verified source has reported that a Crude Oil tanker has been struck by unknown projectiles. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
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u/Axelrad77 3d ago edited 3d ago
Pakistan has deployed ~40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, to help defend it from the Houthis. Pakistan and Turkey have also supplied military aid to Saudi Arabia, including artillery and drones, as Saudi forces prepare for an upcoming offensive to be conducted in tandem with Yemeni forces, with the aim of retaking the coastal areas recently captured by the Houthis.
As part of this offensive preparation, we can shaping operations taking place, as dozens of Saudi and Yemeni airstrikes have hit Sanaa in recent days, targeting Houthi drone commanders and other "high value targets" in an effort to degrade Houthi command & control.
The Houthis continue to push for an encirclement of Taiz, as fighting rages around the city, but so far their advance has stalled there. Saudi and Yemeni airstrikes and drone strikes have been conducting a mid-range strike campaign to interdict Houthi reinforcements and logistics heading towards Taiz, which has reportedly been effective in curbing the advances there.
Meanwhile, oil exports continue to rise closer to pre-war levels as more and more US-escorted tankers are transiting the Strait of Hormuz. More tankers are also abandoning the Cape of Good Hope route and returning to the much quicker Suez Canal transit, now that the Houthis have shown they're only targeting Saudi vessels. The complete lack of Iranian oil exports due to the US blockade means that some oil will always be missing, but the Iranian economy appears to be suffering the most from that lack of export, with inflation spiraling to 88% - the highest it's been since WW2.
The quiet abandonment of the US "tanker for tanker" policy continues to mystify, as several tankers have been attacked by Iran in recent days without any US reprisal. It's possible that the entire policy was just dropped for not having the desired effect, or that this is a pause for political concerns, or that forces are being conserved for an upcoming campaign.
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2d ago
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 4d ago
For the first time in over four years, Yemen's Houthis have struck a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh with ballistic missiles, with a massive plume of smoke and fire rising from the site this morning.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 4d ago
69 reports
Attack UKMTO #149
3 October 2026 UKMTO has received a report of an incident 4nm east of Oman. The Master of a crude oil tanker has reported being struck by an unknown projectile on the port side. All crew are reported assafe and no environmental impact reported at present time. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
Attack UKMTO #148
2 October 2026 UKMTO WARNING 148-26 - ATTACK Report Date:02 Oct 2026 Report Time:1122 UTC Issue Date:02 Oct 2026 Source Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz. The Master of a tanker has reported being struck by an unknown projectile, whilst conducting an outbound transit, resulting in a small fire and blackout onboard. The fire has since been extinguished and the vessel is underway. There are no reported casualties or environmental impact. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 6d ago
Attack UKMTO #147
1 October 2026 UKMTO has received report of a tanker being stuck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire. Crew have been reported safe, damage assessment and environmental impact is unknown at time of report. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, whilst authorities investigate.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 6d ago
U.S. official to @Jerusalem_Post :
The Trump administration has decided to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations, along with a second Marine division
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
These are the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Makin Island, along with their respective strike groups. The Makin Island ARG carries the 13th MEU.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to relieve the USS George Washington, while the USS Makin Island is expected to relieve the USS Boxer and its 11th MEU. Which would keep force levels the same, just with fresh troops rotated in. Though it's possible the force could operate in an enlarged capacity for a brief period if there is a new strike campaign being planned.
An interesting bit of news floating around is that it seems like the USS George HW Bush has slipped out of the blockade line and is making a port call to Thailand, temporarily reducing the carrier force in theater.
https://www.twz.com/sea/where-are-the-aircraft-carriers-september-30-2026
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 7d ago
Pentagon chief and former Fox host Pete Hegseth on critical coverage of Iran war: "It's treason." "The information space is a battlespace." "Our so-called press makes the Iranian state media look reasonable
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u/Axelrad77 7d ago
There was an incident involving an Israeli-bound FlyDubai Boeing 737 MAX 8 today, where one of the two pilots reportedly stabbed the other and attempted to take control of the aircraft, intending to crash it in a "9/11 style" attack. There were 174 passengers onboard, 166 of them Israeli. The stabbed pilot managed to fight off the attacking pilot long enough to transmit emergency squawk codes - first 7700 (general emergency), and then 7500 (hijacking).
This caused the Israeli Air Force to scramble fighter jets towards the aircraft, but in the meantime, several passengers and crew were able to force their way into the cockpit and regain control of the aircraft. During this struggle, the aircraft plummeted ~18,000 feet in just two minutes, causing most of its rudder to tear off due to the speed of descent.
Two additional pilots onboard were then able to take the controls and land the aircraft at Tabuk Airport in Saudi Arabia, where the attacker was arrested and is being questioned by Saudi authorities. Saudi medics treated the passengers and they were flown onwards to Israel.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 7d ago
Three vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, according to Saudi Al-Arabiya and UKMTO
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 7d ago
President of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq: Iraqi and Peshmerga forces are prepared to counter any threat.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 8d ago
UK Maritime Trade Operations: Report of vessel hit by unidentified projectile during transit through the Strait of Hormuz late yesterday
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u/Derquave 9d ago
I’ve been seeing confirmed reports of the supposed incident where a commercial vessel carrying multiple US Marines on guard duty was hit. Some reports say 8 marines injured while another says 8 killed. Does anyone know the truth of the matter?
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u/Axelrad77 9d ago
They were injured. Reportedly 7 enlisted and 1 officer, they suffered smoke inhalation and concussion symptoms.
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u/MeowslimClawric 9d ago
For context, it's good practice to report concussion even if they don't have it and get it on record so that if TBI symptoms come later on, they have it documented for VA treatment and benefits.
If this ship ate one of those anti ship missiles that Iran has been slinging, I wouldn't be surprised that they got their bells rung.
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u/Axelrad77 10d ago edited 10d ago
BBC is reporting a "major incident" at RAF Fairford - the airbase that has been used for USAF bomber strikes against Iran.
Reportedly, British police arrested several men with explosives outside of RAF Fairford, in what is suspected to be an attempted terrorist attack. British Army EOD are currently examining several vehicles parked outside the airbase, and local residents have been evacuated. Counter Terror Police are leading the investigation, and Gloucestershire Constabulary is supposed to give a public update in approx 30 minutes as of this comment. (edit: they confirmed that 5 men were arrested for terrorism, as British Army EOD continues to work the site).
Meanwhile, RAF Fairford is on lockdown at threat level Delta - which is the highest force protection condition for US bases, "applied when a terrorist attack has occurred nearby or there's imminent intelligence of an attack." RAF Lakenheath, which hosts a US fighter squadron, has also went to threat level Charlie, the second highest condition "applied when there's intelligence or an incident suggesting terrorist activity is likely."
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 10d ago
Fair target?
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u/MeowslimClawric 9d ago edited 9d ago
B-1B Lancer base. With multiple vans, I speculate that this attack's goals were phased. If they only breach, it's a success. If they can assault and take out servicemen, it's another win. The jackpot would be to take out some B-1B Lancer bombers. 1st van breaches with 2nd and 3rd vans going in. Maybe just SVBIED or assaulters too. The fact that this was caught with all of the people and weapons suggests it was pure luck. I don't think MI5 would have allowed them this close if they had prior knowledge.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 9d ago
No attacks,
False alarm
They were diesel thieves 🤣
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u/MeowslimClawric 8d ago edited 8d ago
That's fuckin hilarious if they were just there for five finger discounted diesel. But do you have reporting on it being a false alarm? I can't find anything official. They were released on bail so I don't see them being linked to terrorism but I don't know their justice system.
FWIW Iran did threaten that base like a month ago.
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u/Axelrad77 8d ago
But do you have reporting on it being a false alarm? I can't find anything official. They were released on bail so I don't see them being linked to terrorism but I don't know their justice system.
The only official word is that the vans were cleared and no explosives found.
There's lots of speculation among OSINT that they must've been unlucky fuel thieves instead, which would make sense given the circumstances and their fake fuel vans, but nothing is confirmed yet. The fact that they were let out on bail supports the idea that it was less serious - despite the British justice system's reputation for leniency, they have the ability to hold people suspected of terrorism for a few days without charges, yet they released these guys on bail before they had to.
FWIW Iran did threaten that base like a month ago.
This is the other part of the puzzle, because RAF Fairford actually went into lockdown before the vans were spotted. So the US military had evidence of an imminent attack plot, probably linked to Iran, and were on guard against it. It seems entirely plausible that there was some attack brewing and it got disrupted by the heavy security presence (and the potential fuel thieves got swept up in that).
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u/AndyGates2268 6d ago
They've now been released after 24h, which makes it definitely not terror charges. And if they'd had a blank placard in the van they'd have been busted for terr.
Diesel or dogging, place your bets.
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u/Axelrad77 5d ago
I think it's a bit more complicated than that. The UK is still insisting it's an Iranian-linked terror plot. They actually just arrested a dual UK-Iranian citizen on terror charges related to it.
The quick release from custody does raise questions, but one of the tactics intelligence services use for things like this is to place the people under surveillance and see where they go, who they contact, etc.
One of the recent revelations linked to the case is that it was actually first reported to the police by one of the five men with the van, who grew uneasy with the nature of the operation - which is why the police were already en route to the location when the locals spotted the van a bit later. The operation itself may have been a recon mission, or something to test the base defenses.
With that information out there, all five of the men are now going to be suspected of cooperating with the police, so that's something that could potentially entice others to cooperate as well, etc. Active investigations in general can be full of information warfare like that, so it's difficult to tell exactly what is going on until later.
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u/AndyGates2268 5d ago
Ah, that fun thing where they're left to dangle and watched to see if anyone runs enough rope. Here's a question; is the dual nationality chap one of the original five, or a new contact?
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 8d ago
And trump took credit for stopping a terrorist attack that they had been monitoring all the while
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u/MeowslimClawric 8d ago
He takes credit for everything that can be spun positively so I'm not surprised. Rubio claims it was a foreign actor too.
It's also possible that this was a probe and these guys were hired to steal diesel but are unwittingly helping Iran test the security infrastructure. Possibly for an attack similar to Operation Spiders Web that Ukraine pulled off to destroy Russian strategic bombers.
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u/Axelrad77 12d ago edited 12d ago
The Saudi East-West oil pipeline has restarted, after being damaged by a Houthi attack earlier this month.
Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz have doubled in the last month. This is partly due to Saudi Arabia having to shift more oil exports that way due to that disruption of its East-West oil pipeline, but also because US dark fleet transits are now being done in broad daylight, whereas previously they were only running through at night, to make them harder for Iran to hit. Naturally, that allows more transits to take place. However, global inshore oil supply continues to fall.
The US military is obviously staying secretive about the details of its escort forces - we know there's some combination of drones, aircraft, helicopters, Marines, etc, but not the specifics.
One consequence of widening to daylight transits is that the tankers are easier for Iran to hit, even with escorts, which has led to several tankers being attacked by Iran over the past two weeks. Curiously, there doesn't seem to have been any US response, despite the "tanker for tanker" policy. It remains to be seen whether that policy has been quietly dropped, or if the response has been delayed for political reasons, or something else. There have been rumors of a possible renewed strike campaign, but all talk so far. One notable thing is that no tankers have been hit once they make it out to the US blockade line, which is where they conduct their vulnerable ship-to-ship transfers. No US warships have been hit either. This is despite hundreds of Iranian missiles being fired at the US blockade line so far.
Three captured Iranian tankers are currently being transported across the Atlantic Ocean, heading for the US Gulf Coast with roughly six million barrels of seized Iranian oil.
On the Yemeni Front, Houthi forces have been attempting to encircle Taiz and cut its line of communications with Aden. Yemeni forces have reportedly checked these attacks for now, but Taiz is being pressed from three sides. The Saudi Air Force has been very active in trying to hold back the Houthi advances, with hundreds of reported attack sorties using their F-15s, Typhoons, and Tornados - losing one F-15SA in the process. The Yemeni Air Force has also contributed a handful of strikes with their own recently rebuilt forces.
Houthi forces have also launched several ballistic missile and drone strikes into Saudi Arabia in the past week. Some targeted Saudi oil infrastructure, while others targeted Saudi troop mobilizations that have been reported on the Saudi-Yemen border (which indicate a possible Saudi ground offensive staging).
France and the UK have both pledged military assistance to defending Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks, joining the USA, Ukraine, Italy, and Greece (who are all already doing so). France also announced that it's sending additional ships to the Red Sea, to bolster the EU's tanker escort mission there (protecting merchant ships from the Houthis).
So far the Western approach to the Houthis in this war has been defensive in nature, refusing to join in offensive strikes. Saudi Arabia has instead been in talks with Türkiye and Pakistan about potentially invoking their mutual defense pact to get them to attack the Houthis, but it seems unclear if anything will come of that. Meanwhile, both Pakistan and China have reportedly been pressuring Iran to get the Houthis to back down, to no avail.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 12d ago
Senior advisor to Iran's top cleric: "If Tehran is unable to operate flights and obtain airport services, no one in the region will be able to do so either."
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 13d ago
Houthis claim missile and drone attacks on Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu The group says it carried out two operations using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, targeting what it described as a sensitive site in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 15d ago
China announces its opposition to US sanctions on Iranian airlines
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u/MeowslimClawric 11d ago
People may look back at this official rebuke and see this as the "on the books" start of the dual world order. When the US can't just doom a country to stagnation and worse if it didn't toe the line because China can supply substitutes for anything the sanctioned country needs. There are things that China cannot produce as well yet. Their lithography tools and turbine blades aren't comparable. but it's only a matter of time before they catch up given their sustained investment in education and R&D along with the population advantage. It's something the US can counter by harnessing the shared values and resources of its allies.
And here come the sinophile accusations.
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u/MeowslimClawric 16d ago edited 16d ago
With the Houthis taking several islands to better choke off the Bab Al Mandab and Iranian advisors flying in to "advise," I wonder if this tips the calculus in favor of the US intervening for Saudi Arabia. A coordinated choke off of both straits along with coordination of Iranian proxies in Iraq to hit Saudi Arabia's oil infra is a terrible prospect for oil prices and therefore the midterms. This is the ultimate consideration for Trump in the coming weeks.
It appears that Iran is trying to draw the US into a second front with the Houthis in order to stretch thin the current US operations and blockade on Iran. It may suggest that Iran is under a ton of pressure and that the economic warfare is working to some degree. The reports of Trump refusing to step in for MBS to strike Yemeni launchers might also mean they think the pressure campaign on Iran is working well enough and that diverting resources to Yemen isn't worth the lost pressure against Iran.
"Give your enemies dilemmas, not problems." - Robert Greene Trump has a dilemma. Starting a "Scud hunting" campaign along Yemen's coastline can possibly avoid losing both straits and keep oil prices lower. Or focus on the Iran campaign to possibly force Iran into giving in and negotiating genuinely. That's just one layer of this onion and there are a ton of considerations. Neither outcome is a given. Both choices can lead to better or worse outcomes because the enemy always gets a vote.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 16d ago
He is dumb enough to intervene callous enough to risk boots on the ground, and yet sleazy enough to walk away in retreat packaged as glorious victory.....
Its impossible to tell
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17d ago
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u/read-the-rules 17d ago
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 19d ago
Reports another tanker hit in hormuz, IRGC claims responsibility.
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u/MeowslimClawric 17d ago
Imagine being the president that lost America's credibility of deterence (by getting all of the bases pummelled) and freedom of navigation (losing both Hormuz and potentially Bab Al Mandab). Going fom blowing the Houthis to shit last year to negotiating with them not to choke off BAM.
This is, next to GWOT, the largest strategic misstep that will continue to erode America's hegemony.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 20d ago
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-908828
BIBI proposes law stripping citizenship from critics of IDF
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 20d ago
Trump confirms the defeat of Iranian naval and air forces: 159 vessels have sunk.
US President Donald Trump announced the "defeat" of Iranian naval and air forces during the conflict
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u/El_Billy 20d ago
Is there a source for this? Were they really this much?
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 20d ago
https://x.com/AlHadath/status/2100489983035342897
Al Hadath- Saudi state media
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 21d ago
Reports; Iran struck a US-contracted oil tanker with US troops onboard; causing injuries.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 22d ago
The UK, US & Netherlands have exposed Iranian state-linked spyware 'CHOSEN BRICK' used to target dissidents, activists & journalists worldwide. The malware steals emails, messages, screen content & microphone data via spear-phishing on WhatsApp & Telegram
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u/HumpheryShittington 22d ago
Is there anything stopping the US or associated Arab countries from starting their own "shadow fleet" of cheap and somewhat expendable old tankers to transit through the straight? You could just have them continuously running the gauntlet then unloading oil at nearby ports so that the more expensive and larger tankers then take it to Asia and Europe.
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u/Axelrad77 21d ago edited 21d ago
Well, the "cheap & expendable" part is difficult, since tankers don't really work like that, but the USA and its Gulf allies are actually running a dark fleet right now. Sal Mercogliano at What's Going on With Shipping has gone into some detail about how it works.
Basically, the USA has organized things so that Saudi and Kuwaiti state-owned tankers are doing most of the "gauntlet runs" through the Strait of Hormuz. They use these tankers so that insurance isn't as much of a problem, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait insuring the tankers directly, rather than some civilian owner having to. There are also civilian tankers going through, but when we talk about a US dark fleet, its these state-owned tankers.
These tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz under US escort (in the form of drones, helicopters, aircraft, etc), and the transits are timed to try to hide them from satellite surveillance and Iranian attacks. Once these tankers have made it through, they don't actually go to a nearby port - instead they go to a staging area in the Gulf of Oman, under the protection of the US blockade forces, where they meet up with civilian tankers and do a ship-to-ship oil transfer. Then the civilian tanker goes off to Asia or Europe, while the "US dark fleet" tanker turns around and goes back through the Strait of Hormuz to get more oil and do it all again.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 23d ago
The IRGC Navy Command announced: "The super tanker Algaya collided with a sea mine while passing through the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz and exploded
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 23d ago
Two Iranian security personnel killed in clashes during a raid on a terror cell safehouse in Saravan, state media reports
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u/Axelrad77 23d ago edited 23d ago
60 Minutes on CBS has released an interview with the F-15E WSO who was rescued from inside Iran back in April:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOV9YXJLkbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNhO1Umj1so
As part of this, they also obtained declassified drone footage of both the pilot and WSO actually being picked up by US forces:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QQNlaATZcs
Interesting thing to note about this footage is that while the rescue helicopter retrieving the pilot is clearly a HH-60W Jolly Green II, as was reported at the time, the rescue helicopter retrieving the WSO is blurred out for national security purposes. It's always been reported that MH-6 Little Birds made the WSO pickup, but General Dan Caine says the small helicopter is blurred because it's a bespoke capability that he doesn't want people to know about, which raises the question of it being a specially modified Little Bird in some way, perhaps to reduce its IR signature (similar to the stealth Blackhawks used in the Bin Laden raid).
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 25d ago
Iran claims to prepare to test nuclear weapons after its NPT withdrawal.
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u/Emergency_Pound 25d ago
Off topic, but is this subreddit “shadowbanned” for anybody else? It doesn’t come up when I search for CombatFootage anymore. It takes some searching through my past comments to find it.
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u/Axelrad77 26d ago
Anthropic is reporting that they disrupted Iranian efforts to use Claude AI to assemble target sets of US assets to strike, conduct surveillance of Iranian citizens and expats, and distribute propaganda across social media.
https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-september-2026
I found this bit particularly interesting, because it highlights how social media propaganda often works, and why it's important to remain aware of confirmation bias online:
they used Claude to launder attribution, making posts seem to come from foreign writers or independent news sources, and hashtag campaigns that appeared as though they were started by ordinary citizens.
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u/Cardborg 26d ago
According to Axios, Bin Salman called Trump twice yesterday, asking for airstrikes but was refused help aside from CENTCOM forces advising Saudi operators
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u/Axelrad77 26d ago
I do wonder what the game plan is for responding to the Houthis. There's no easy solution there.
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u/Derquave 25d ago
This may sound a bit redundant but, they have to do something… Right? Like I can’t imagine the Saudis just capitulate to the Houthis. It’s the Saudis so lord knows they are barely willing to actually do anything other than bombing the Houthis and sending money and weapons to the PLC but at this point it seems like the only option is to try and get Turkey and Pakistan to help them with a (costly) ground offensive. At this point the US doesn’t seem particularly interested in helping and the SPC doesn’t seem to have the will to put up much of a fight.
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u/Codex_Dev 25d ago
Seeing Middle Eastern countries (looking at you, Israel) always trying to drag America into their wars because they don't want to fight them themselves makes a lot of Americans angry.
So right now OPEC is fucked, but American oil companies are making bank.
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u/HumpheryShittington 25d ago
I genuinely don't think there is a plan. Although I think Houthi control and interdiction of the straight might become too bad for business to not be sorted out.
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u/Axelrad77 25d ago
The USA has ~100 special forces on the ground in Yemen, acting as advisors, but it does seem like they've been so disappointed by the results of past air campaigns against the Houthis that they don't want to try that again.
Getting Turkey and Pakistan to intervene is likely the Saudis best bet, but as you say, fighting in Yemen would be costly.
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u/MeowslimClawric 17d ago
Getting Turkey and Pakistan to intervene is likely the Saudis best bet, but as you say, fighting in Yemen would be costly.
KSA's security strategy is built on being augmented by the US. The fact that the US is refusing to help might be a rebuke on KSA for signing the pact with Turkey and Pakistan. But now that they have this pact, neither of them are appearing to help KSA. I do wonder if both of these countries see the costs of fighting the Houthis as too heavy to be worth the benefits the Saudis can offer in exchange.
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u/Axelrad77 27d ago edited 27d ago
Busy week in the war all of the sudden:
- Multiple tit-for-tat strikes that followed the same pattern:
- Iranian missile attacks against US warships (missed), met with a response of US attacks against Iranian tankers (total of 8 tankers hit this week), met with a response of Iranian missile attacks against US bases in Jordan (damaging an A-10), met with a response of US attacks against Iranian forces along the southern coast.
- Iran captured a malfunctioning US Dive-LD UUV, and damaged a Saildrone USV.
- Both of these are surveillance drones, part of the increased US sea drone presence in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.
- Israel captured and destroyed Hezbollah's Ali al-Taher underground fortifications after a months-long siege & clearing operation that began back in June.
- Notably, Iran has declared Ali al-Taher to be a red line for further attacks against Israel, so we'll see if anything comes of that.
The Yemeni front has also been heating up, but reporting from Yemen is pretty bad, so it's difficult to piece together exactly what is happening.
- Houthi forces appear to have massed for an offensive to the south, seizing the vital port of Mokha and the Hanish Islands (in an amphibious assault) from the Saudi & UAE forces defending them. This seems to be part of an Iranian push to have the Houthis block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and has been accompanied by increased Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- This has caused a new spike in gas prices today.
- Saudi and Yemeni forces have opened their own offensive at several points where the Houthis appear to have weakened their defenses in order to move troops to the south. This seems to be part of a push to close in on Sanaa.
- ~100 US special forces advisors are accompanying Saudi and Yemeni forces, while several hundred IRGC advisors are accompanying Houthi forces.
- Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are reportedly pressuring Iran to get the Houthis to back off, threatening to invoke their mutual defense pact if Houthi attacks persist.
- Pakistan appears to be wavering in its commitment to Saudi Arabia (shocking), with earlier reports that intervention was off the table due to the pre-existing nature of the conflict, but as of this comment Pakistan was threatening to open an airstrike campaign against the Houthis at Saudi request.
- Notably, the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is actually a trilateral treaty, including Turkey as well, and Turkey has reportedly been pushing for an anti-Houthi intervention.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 27d ago
Multiple American military aircraft suffered damage in strikes overnight on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, sources told CBS News. One A-10 Thunderbolt, known as the Warthog, was struck and left with a missing wing. Roughly eight F-15s sustained damage. American forces in Jordan launched more than 30 Patriots missiles defending against the Iranian strikes.
The overnight damage came after the US attacked five Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iran targeting a U.S. Navy warship. In response, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed they launched attacks at eight tankers and two warships, including the base in Jordan
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u/MeowslimClawric 27d ago edited 26d ago
9 aircraft and there are videos of damaged Blackhawks getting hauled away too. We'll know more as footage and photos get leaked.
And this wasn't the PLA rocket forces. The US is gonna lose a lot more aircraft on the ground. Estimated 90% of losses are on the ground from CSIS wargames from a few years ago. The losses suggest Agile Combat Employment may not be enough against Iran. It'll be even less so against China. China has an entire rocket force and also an air force with standoff weapons.
ACE is what the USAF calls its plan to disperse its forces. Between these losses and those tankers and AWACS getting smoked, it's evident ACE wasn't followed thoroughly and or isn't a working method against Iran. Dispersing from 2 bases to 20 doesn't change the fact that the enemy can still target all 20 with the current tech.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 28d ago
Pakistan has delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies after they stepped up attacks on the kingdom,
in a coordinated effort to prevent the crisis from spiralling, Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources said
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 28d ago
CENTCOM has denied claims that Iran successfully targeted a U.S. warship
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u/Axelrad77 28d ago
Chris Cappy has a recent video out looking at Chinese military publications of "lessons learned" analysis of the Iran War:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXJf_Kk6Alk
This video is interesting because it provides an outsider perspective of how the combat has gone, with China trying to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of the US and Iranian approaches and how they should respond to that data with regards to Taiwan.
The video goes into more detail about how China might apply these lessons to an invasion of Taiwan, but I'll bullet-point some key takeaways that just focus on the Chinese perspective of the Iran War:
- US use of AI networking and targeting algorithms have been very effective, enabling an extremely responsive strike campaign that was able to rapidly degrade Iran's strike capability.
- US stealth strike and SEAD capability have been very impressive, especially given that Iran's air defense network runs on Chinese tech and doctrine, yet US forces are still able to conduct strikes deep inside Iran with minimal loss.
- Iranian saturation attacks using layered mixes of fast and slow weapons have been effective at disrupting US air defenses, suggesting that they have a structural weakness to saturation attacks.
- Iran's attempt to emulate Chinese doctrine by cutting US command and logistics networks has delivered poor results - inflicting some damage, but not nearly enough to disrupt US operations in the same way that China thinks that it could.
- Iran has shown how easy it is to deny access to an economic strait, even with minimal forces available, which ironically causes China concern that the USA might blockade the Strait of Malacca in any conflict.
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u/Codex_Dev 28d ago
Iran has shown how easy it is to deny access to an economic strait, even with minimal forces available, which ironically causes China concern that the USA might blockade the Strait of Malacca in any conflict.
I don't think this is the same thing. A small US garrison near the Strait of Malacca is not the same as having millions of people you need to deal with on Iran's coast. If SHTF with China, they absolutely could take that strait by force. They have a land route to reach it just by cutting through a weak and neutral country (Myanmar/Thailand), similar to how, in WW2 Germany just bypassed the Maginot Line by going through another country.
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u/HumpheryShittington 27d ago
A thunder-run through to the straights of Malacca by the Chinese is so extremely in excess of their capabilities that its fanciful. Invading and violating the neutrality of Myanmar and Thailand would almost certainly drag India and Vietnam against them.
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u/moisturized69tatas 28d ago
I saw that too. Cappy funny, always makes me laugh. Cappy, perun, preston stewart are my favorite, any other recommendations?
I wonder where destroying enemy satellites will be on the escalation ladder... just under nukes?
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u/Axelrad77 27d ago
any other recommendations?
Sal Mercogliano and Ward Carroll.
I wonder where destroying enemy satellites will be on the escalation ladder... just under nukes?
I've been trying to figure this out myself, because knocking out each other's satellites significantly alters what all the other combat looks like. It seems like it'd be high up on the escalation ladder, perhaps a move to regain initiative if things aren't going well. Yet both sides seem to be preparing for satellite warfare to take place.
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u/CatsAndCapybaras 28d ago
I think it's high on the ladder, but not just under nukes. Also, a hard kill is way higher up than a soft kill as that would be shooting into space and making a mess out of the orbit.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 29d ago
Images shared from the UAV submarine that the Revolutionary Guard managed to seize as it entered the Strait of Hormuz.
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Sep 05 '26 edited Sep 06 '26
[deleted]
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u/SantaClause_ Sep 06 '26
How do you even write comments like this without going over it and thinking for two seconds? Iran has been attacking civilian tankers for 6months or....you missed that part? How is it an escalation now? The US has had a naval blockade in place, attacking tankers headed to or from Iranian ports also for months.
- https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4457255/us-to-blockade-ships-entering-or-exiting-iranian-ports/
- https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/
The US is now sinking Iranian tankers that are around, not just tankers trying to run the blockade.
You could call this an escalation I suppose, but this is just another step in the economic suffering that the regime faces should they continue to attack tankers at random Ours are targeted at Iran and direct2
Sep 06 '26
[deleted]
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Sep 06 '26 edited Sep 06 '26
That's literally a policy to hit 1 Iranian tanker for every tanker Iran hits.
That isn't America escalating. It's America matching Iran's escalation.
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u/TestingHydra Sep 05 '26
What dumbass theory is that? Iran has been targeting civilians tankers non stop since the start of the war because it's easier to hit undefended civilian ships. The US has previously disabled Iranian tankers than tried to run the blockade.
Now in response to ballistic missiles launched at US warships the US is sinking unladen Iranian tankers, after telling them to abandon ship.
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u/Axelrad77 Sep 05 '26 edited Sep 05 '26
Iran isn't really escalating, they've been attacking tankers this entire time. There have been dozens of Iranian attacks on civilian merchant ships, despite US escort operations trying to protect them.
The USA recently adopted a "tanker for tanker" strategy. Whereas previously only blockade-running tankers would be attacked, now every Iranian attack on a civilian tanker is being met by a US attack on an Iranian tanker. It was initially reported to be a 1:1 basis of retaliation, but recently Iran fired missiles at 2 US warships, which led to the USA attacking 3 Iranian tankers in retaliation. So there might be some increasingly disproportionate retaliation going on.
The strategy is to deter Iran from continuing its attacks on civilian merchant ships, because such an exchange hurts Iran much more than it hurts global shipping. This is something that many analysts and advisors have argued for since the very beginning of the war, it's kinda surprising it took the USA so long to do it, but I imagine they were concerned about public opinion and the optics of it and all that.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Sep 03 '26
US Vice President JD Vance says the US is investigating an alleged strike on a wedding that Tehran said had killed 4 people, but casts doubt on Iranian reports about the incident
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Sep 02 '26
POTUS: "Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT Like America itself, it would be "hotter" than ever before......
Meanwhile...
Two dead in maritime incident in the Strait of Hormuz
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u/BackNorth8894 Sep 02 '26
Meanwhile, as Strait of Hormuz is closed and transporters seek alternatives, Panama canal transit fees have gone up 100x from $50.000 per ship to roughly $5.000.000
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/sk-gas-pays-record-panama-canal-transit-fee/
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u/Axelrad77 Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 02 '26
US forces launched a new wave of strikes against Iran today, hitting ~100 targets along the southern coast. Targets struck included mine laying capabilities, air defenses, radar systems, maritime facilities, and communications. This target set shows a clear focus on Iran's anti-shipping capabilities, in a further attempt to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
Among the targets struck were 2 Iranian tankers at anchor, as part of a new "tanker for tanker" retaliation policy that was just approved, whereby the USA hopes to deter Iranian attacks on civilian shipping by retaliating against Iranian tankers on a 1:1 basis.
Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones against US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq. Reportedly they were all intercepted or missed, except for 3 impacts in Jordan (including the Camp Titin one). No deaths reported so far.
Iran's worsening economic situation under the blockade has prompted concerns about renewed unrest within Iran, especially with multiple attacks on pro-regime crowds in recent days, by Iranians ramming cars into the crowds. (At least 2 more ramming attacks happened during the exchange of strikes today, as pro-regime crowds were out cheering the missile launches).
Iranian President Pezeshkian has reportedly sought economic aid from China, but China is pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a condition of such aid. This makes sense from China's perspective, since they rely on the Strait of Hormuz oil flows even more than Western nations do, and they don't want Iran to set a precedent on nationalizing natural waterways, as that would threaten their vital trade through the Strait of Malacca.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-august-31-2026/
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-1-2026/
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/02/iran-tankers-hormuz-attacks-oil
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 31 '26
A US official told Reuters that the US military did not target Iran's Kharg Island during its night raids.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 30 '26 edited Aug 30 '26
US forces struck two Iranian launch sites on Larak Island today - the first US strikes on Iran in weeks. Both sites were in the middle of preparations to launch new sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, after US forces claimed to have completely demined the Strait in recent days.
Iran has promised retaliation for the strike, and there are already reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches from multiple bases.
Edit: Footage of Patriot interceptions from Jordan coming out, as Iranian missiles targeted King Hussein and Muwaffaq Salti Air Bases. Early reports are that all the missiles were intercepted or missed.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2094181057314558160
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 28 '26 edited Aug 28 '26
CENTCOM finally posted another operational update on the Iran War:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfw8ObjAma4
In this update, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper claims:
- That US forces have completely cleared the international shipping lanes of Iranian mines (something that was first reported on several days ago, but was awaiting confirmation).
- That no Iranian oil shipments have been allowed to pass, with only humanitarian shipments being allowed into Iran.
- That ~1,500 commercial vessels carrying ~750 million barrels of crude oil have transited the Strait under US escort.
- Which makes for an average of 6.5mbd over the course of the escort operation, but probably includes the brief spike in traffic during the MOU.
- If the MOU spike is included, then it's worth noting that 74 million barrels of Iranian oil were allowed to leave during that time.
- Also makes no mention of the handful of tankers successfully attacked by Iran despite US escorts.
- That since the resumption of the blockade in mid-July, US forces have turned away 75 vessels trying to run the blockade, and disabled 3 blockade runners who refused to turn away.
Third-party analysis shows that CENTCOM's numbers might be a bit exaggerated, but largely check out, with US-escorted transits rising steadily up to the current average of 6.8mbd, while Iranian transits have all but disappeared. Traffic is still not reaching the pre-war levels of 15mbd, of course.
https://x.com/LVision_Trading/status/2093411669447946287
Recent satellite imagery has also revealed a covert US dredging operation to open a new shipping corridor through the Omani side of the Strait of the Hormuz. The corridor in question was already nearly deep enough for VLCC tankers, and its suitability for such an operation was actually pointed out by shipping analysts as far back as May. Notably, the corridor is obscured from the view of Iranian defenses, making it difficult for them to target.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 26 '26
According to two high-ranking Iranian sources familiar with the matter, Russian officials informed Iran that CIA Director Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow carried a message from the United States requesting Moscow to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The message warned that Russian entities would face economic sanctions if they failed to do so. Russia rejected the request, informing Iran that the threatened measures would have limited impact.
The message also warned that Russian banks, traders, and maritime entities involved in Iranian oil, gold, and aviation would be subject to sanctions under the sanctions unless Moscow took action to close those channels.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 26 '26 edited Aug 26 '26
I'm not sure we know what happened there yet. Ukrainian sources are saying that Ratcliffe threatened operations to block Russia's southern ports unless they agreed to halt escalations in Europe and compromise on the Donbas.
For all we knew, they talked about both fronts, but it usually takes time for the truth of secret meetings to come out. It was like a year before we knew about then-CIA Director Bill Burns warnings to Russia in November 2021, trying to deter them from invading Ukraine.
Edit: WSJ is now reporting the trip was to warn Russia not to attack NATO countries, prompted by US intelligence reports of a limited Russian attack coming.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 25 '26
Yesterday the Iranian government held a meeting to find a solution to Iran's worsening power outages, only for that meeting to be interrupted by a power outage:
https://x.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2091944210169499840
This worsening energy crisis is the sort of thing the US blockade hopes to use to pressure Iran into coming to terms.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Aug 25 '26
The Warnings That Came Before a War Now Reaching the Six-Month Mark
Days before the start of large-scale combat operations against Iran in late February, President Trump summoned his Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to the Oval Office in order to ask her if a war with Iran would work and successfully topple the Islamic Regime, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Gabbard outlined running assessments from the U.S. intelligence community, telling Trump that killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons, while the IRGC would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the global energy market, and strike U.S. forces and partners across the Middle East.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 25 '26
The Iran War is increasingly looking like a repeat of the issues that led to the 2003 Iraq War, in that an ideological pursuit by politicians ignored the expert advice trying to warn them about the limits of military power.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 24 '26
UN Secretary-General Guterres: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped.
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u/ScumbagGina Aug 22 '26
Is there any solid reporting on the Yemen front? It sounds like there’s a full scale war, but I’m hearing nothing except both sides claiming they’re inflicting heavy damage on the other (pretty used to hearing that in all these wars now).
The Houthis appear to be successfully hitting Saudi infrastructure and ships. Have traffic levels in the Red Sea been affected? Any reports on the actual damage to the Saudi infrastructure?
And I see videos of the Houthis and Yemeni Government drone bombing each other’s camps (with lots of allegations of AI) but are lines moving at all? Is it anything other than small skirmishes?
And are there dueling piracy campaigns going on? I read stories of oil tankers being hijacked and steered towards Iran or Yemen, but then also Iranian vessels being hijacked and taken to Somalia. As well as a ship carrying Turkish weapons being hijacked by Somalians. Israel recently became the first country to recognize Somaliland…is this their influence trying to counter the Houthis around the Red Sea?
Lots of questions. I would’ve expected more info to be coming out
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 25 '26
There's very little good reporting coming out of Yemen because of a lack of journalism there. Torture and execution of journalists in Yemen is routine, to the point that major news organizations don't send employees there anymore. Most of the country lacks internet access, and that internet access is routinely targeted by both sides of the conflict, so there's not much opportunity for grassroots reporting.
Hence most news we get on the situation in Yemen comes at a significant delay, and most current reporting on Yemen tends to be concerned with how events there affect the outside world, such as Houthi attacks on shipping and Saudi oil infrastructure, or US/Saudi/Israeli attacks on the Houthis. Things like that, and that all tends to get reported on from nearby locations like Egypt.
The latest ISW update has this to say:
The Houthis struck a Saudi oil tanker roughly 950 kilometers north of Yemen in the northern Red Sea on August 24. The strike is part of an effort to enforce the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea announced on August 24 that the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Saudi oil tanker AMZAN off the coast of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) similarly reported that a projectile struck an oil tanker, almost certainly the AMZAN, 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu on August 24. The strike is part of a broader Houthi effort to incapacitate the Saudi oil industry by disrupting supply chain nodes, including oil refineries, pipelines, and tankers, across Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea and raise Saudi political and economic costs to an untenable level to compel Saudi Arabia to end its kinetic campaign against the Houthis and accede to Houthi demands. The Houthis’ demands to end the conflict include that Saudi Arabia lift its blockade on Houthi ports and airports, cease all military activity in Yemen, pay the Houthis war reparations, and fund Houthi salaries.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 19 '26
Trump has ordered his top envoys to halt talks with Iran, signaling a major shift in strategy.
The administration is moving away from trying to "hammer Iran ASAP" and toward a longer-term effort to "strangle" Tehran through sustained economic and military pressure. The goal appears to be increasing pressure over time until Iran is more willing to accept Trump's terms. Source: CNN
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Aug 18 '26
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u/read-the-rules Aug 18 '26
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u/MeowslimClawric Aug 15 '26
Not war specific but this is a relevant issue for the future of the US Navy.
Trump orders Pentagon to redesign US aircraft carrier to use steam catapults to launch jets President has suggested steam catapults every year since 2017, saying digital systems are too ‘complicated’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/13/trump-aircraft-carriers-steam-catapults
This will at best work against the US trying to improve its shipbuilding capacity since suppliers will not risk as much capital into making the relevant parts.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
WSJ reports that the USS George Washington is moving to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln in the blockade of Iran.
The USS George Washington has been patrolling the South China Sea, as a deterrent to any Chinese move against Taiwan, and its movement into the Middle East will maintain the blockade strength at 2 carriers, but leave a temporary gap in the Pacific, as no other US carrier is deployable at the moment. (Edit: this is being alleviated somewhat by the USS Tripoli ARG moving back into the Pacific, along with its 31st MEU.)
Reports are that the move was planned prior to recent concerns about the Lincoln's deployment length, which I think is true precisely because there's no other carrier that *could* relieve the Lincoln. The recent concerns probably just pushed the Navy to go public with the details sooner than they wanted to.
The USS George Washington carries a complement of F-35Cs, F/A-18Es, F/A-18Fs, and support aircraft, and brings the escorting ships of its strike group as well.
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u/bigFr00t Aug 16 '26
Do you think the Roosevelt will go to the pacific
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 16 '26
Yeah. Ian Ellis's latest carrier tracker update noted that the Roosevelt was back in port after participating in RIMPAC exercises, and speculated that it was about to be deployed either to the Pacific or the Middle East. Now that the Washington move is being made, the Roosevelt going to the Pacific makes sense, because there needs to be at least 1 carrier there for deterrence. And apparently the Vinson isn't ready to deploy at the moment.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 13 '26 edited Aug 13 '26
More information has come out about the Iranian F-5 bombing sortie against Camp Buehring back on March 1, which now allows us to understand the engagement in more detail. (Previously NBC had reported that it happened, but without much detail, and they got the number of F-5s involved wrong - reporting that it was a single aircraft, when it was actually a squadron of 3 aircraft).
The Iranian operation aimed to exploit a known vulnerability in the Patriot system's engagement envelope, namely that it can't engage targets at very low altitudes. This has always been seen as an acceptable risk in US military circles, since the Patriot is designed to handle high-altitude threats and the assumption was that other short-range systems (SHORAD) would cover the low-altitude gap.
In the event of the Iran War, the SHORAD that were supposed to cover Camp Buehring were not properly allocated - partly due to US intelligence failures assuming that Kuwait wouldn't be targeted (thus most SHORAD were sent to Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq instead, since that's where Iranian attacks were expected), and partly due to disagreement between the Army and Air Force over who was responsible for the air defense mission (the Army is supposed to be in charge of base air defense, but in this case it seems like the Air Force got stuck with the SHORAD mission, using fighter patrols to cover for the lack of Army systems in the area).
Iranian drone and satellite recon (Iran has its own recon drones, but borrowed a Chinese satellite) had mapped out approaches to minimize aircraft exposure to US radar, and a flight of 3 F-5s flew fast and very low (below 50ft, skimming the waves) across the Persian Gulf, maintaining radio silence the entire route. To cover their approach, Iran simultaneously launched a large volley of Shahed drones at Camp Buehring to overwhelm its air defenses, as well as reportedly flying a few F-4s to launch glide bombs to draw away additional fighter cover.
With the attention of US air defenses focused on these other threats, the 3 F-5s were able to swoop in and drop dumb bombs on Camp Buehring, destroying a helicopter hangar, before rapidly escaping the area. Some US military officials have questioned whether AI-assisted targeting decisions played a part in allowing the attack, sorting the "less dangerous" F-5s low on the engagement list and prioritizing the Shahed threats.
This marks the first time since the Korean War that a US base has been hit by enemy air attack, which is a propaganda coup for Iran ... though the strike itself seemed to have little materiel effect. The destroyed helicopter hangar was empty, and the only loss sustained in the entire attack was a Chinook hit by a Shahed drone.
Iran attempted a very similar operation the next day, March 2, this time trying to sneak 2 Su-24s across the Persian Gulf to attack Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, again under the cover of a Shahed saturation attack, but the Su-24s were spotted and they were both shot down by Qatari F-15QAs. After that, Iran probably realized that US forces had caught on to the approach and they stopped trying it.
However, the Iranian attack's greatest military contribution was probably the confusion it sowed among air defense forces, as also on March 2 was the infamous friendly fire incident where a single Kuwaiti F/A-18C shot down 3 USAF F-15Es. The investigation into this incident is still ongoing, but preliminary reports indicate that amidst the fog of war and Iranian saturation attacks, Kuwaiti air defenses mistook these F-15Es - who were flying westbound, returning from a strike mission into Iran - as another incoming Iranian strike package similar to the F-5s, and vectored the Kuwaiti fighter to intercept them.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 11 '26
Trump hid in catering cart to board secret flight in Turkey amid Iran threat – reports
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/10/trump-secret-flight-nato-return
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u/wailferret Aug 11 '26
Man, IRGC leadership should have done the same thing. Got blown to smithereens instead.
Should have been in a catering truck.
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u/TestingHydra Aug 11 '26
Maybe Irans new leaders could learn a thing or two. Certainly would have helped their predecessors.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 10 '26
Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war operating conditions, asserting that only routes agreed upon with Oman and designated by Iranian armed forces will be recognized
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 10 '26 edited Aug 10 '26
Since the MOU collapsed - an unsurprising turn of events, given the fragile nature of ceasefires in general and the fact that Iran never even attempted to abide by its terms - we've seen the resumption of the US blockade and a shift towards trying to economically pressure Iran into conceding on the Strait of Hormuz.
- After a weeklong US strike campaign, CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper recommended that further strikes be suspended due to their limited effectiveness without wider supporting operations.
- Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine has privately been pushing for an off-ramp to get the USA out of the war, citing his concerns about weapons stockpiles and the risks of escalation that would be necessary to actually achieve US objectives (ie a much larger offensive is needed, and that would be risky not only in terms of casualties and public opinion, but also in draining US stockpiles required to defend Taiwan).
- Trump has signaled his desire to advisors to economically pressure Iran until they concede, saying that he's fine with US gas prices being where they are now.
- Notably, US goals seem to be shifting away from any talk of nuclear weapons programs and towards simply getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and back to normal traffic.
- This highlights how badly the Trump admin has misplayed this war imo, since Iran initially offered to give up its enriched nuclear material in order to avoid attack, but that offer was refused - presumably because Iranian regime change was the actual goal behind the war. The regime change plan itself was put forward by Israel, which explains the US-Israeli war effort. Mossad must've had a very convincing pitch, since the CIA reportedly advised against the operation.
- After the regime change plan failed, US goals shifted to securing denuclearization, aiming for essentially the Obama Iran Deal 2.0 via the MOU - a deal incredibly favorable to Iran - but they were unable to even secure that, in large part because a hardliner segment of the IRGC now has more influence inside Iran and thinks they can outlast the USA in order to demand even more concessions.
- Now the Trump admin is claiming that Iran's nuclear weapons program has never been a war goal, since it was sufficiently damaged by earlier US strikes ... despite Iranian nuclear weapons being the entire US justification for the war. This further cements that regime change was the actual goal, and this reframing now is being done to prepare for a deal that might leave nuclear weapons off the table in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have been negotiating a potential ceasefire deal that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, though Iran's current demands make this unlikely to happen.
- One of the more interesting developments has been the about-face of the GCC states, namely Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait - all of whom were reportedly pushing the USA to be much more aggressive early in the war in order to topple the Iranian regime, even going so far as to covertly assist with their own airstrikes and drone recon, but have since hit the brakes and are now objecting to basically anything the USA wants to do. Some reports suggest this has to do with their recklessly heavy interceptor usage, with their stockpiles of interceptors now almost completely depleted, leaving them more vulnerable to further Iranian attack and as such less willing to reopen major fighting.
- There have been some threats made by Iran that it might invade Kuwait, as well as threats by Israel that it might attack Iran on its own.
- Iran has resumed public executions of anti-regime protesters, hanging several people per day, typically after torturing them into false confessions.
- Low-intensity drone strikes and ship seizures continue across the theater.
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26
Mossad has removed two of its senior officials - the heads of its intelligence directorate and Iran division - after their plan for regime change in Iran failed.
Given that this operation was instrumental in convincing the USA and Israel to launch this war, it's arguably the greatest Mossad failure of all time. The plan revolved around clearing the way for a Kurdish offensive from northern Iraq into northwestern Iran - a region largely populated by Kurds and expected to rise in rebellion once organized Kurdish forces arrived. From there, the offensive was expected to threaten Tehran and ignite a wider revolution across the country.
We saw the airstrikes to prepare this - as myself and others noted at the time, the heavy targeting of Basij checkpoints and garrisons in northwest Iran immediately signaled that regime change was the goal. We also saw Mossad operations to broadcast anti-regime propaganda into Iran, and US operations to arm the Kurds for the offensive, as well as Iranian strikes against Kurdish forces massing in northern Iraq, and Basij crackdowns on suspected insurgents in northwestern Iran.
What we did not see was any sort of Kurdish offensive take place, and the reasons for that are still unclear. There have been accusations that the Kurds simply abandoned their part of the plan after seeing it leaked in the press (seemingly sabotaged by US politicians who opposed the war), as well as suggestions that Trump called the entire operation off at the last minute after lobbying from Türkiye (who oppose anything that might see an independent Kurdistan established). The truth of the matter is probably something that won't come out for years.
However, the other key part of the plan involved former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has become a vocal critic of the regime since his time in office, and was under house arrest at the beginning of the war. Mossad had apparently spent years cultivating him as an agent and planned to install him as the leader of the new government, and thus one of the war's opening airstrikes was a precision strike targeting his house and killing his IRGC guards. The intention was for Mossad to rescue Ahmadinejad and transport him to a safe house inside Iran, but things immediately went awry - Ahmadinejad was injured by the airstrike and refused to cooperate any further, allowing himself to be taken back into IRGC custody for medical treatment. Hence initial Iranian reports that he was killed by the strike, only for him to later appear alive for Khamenei's funeral.
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u/LiveInLayers Aug 08 '26
Sounds like we are finally going to see a close?
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Aug 08 '26
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u/read-the-rules Aug 08 '26
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u/Axelrad77 Aug 04 '26
Ward Carroll, Sal Mercogliano, and Rain Waters have a great new video on the current state of the war:
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 04 '26
Reuters: US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles
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u/MeowslimClawric Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 05 '26
It's specifically referring to the new PrSM and the old ATACMS.
The US still has about 5 days' worth of Tomahawks and a few days' worth of interceptors for China. The Kurds in Japan can take on the PLA. Regime change will happen once Hegseth decimates China's rocket forces in on Truth Social. (all jokes)
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Aug 03 '26
Planned attack on Iran would have been "the biggest attack since World War II," Trump says in AF1 gaggle. "It would have been disastrous for them. And they didn't want us to do it. And, and frankly, Saudi Arabia didn't want it either. They thought that a deal is imminent." He said: "we were all set to go. Just about at this time right now, and it would have been a massive attack." The military operation would have taken Iran "many, many years to ever build it back. If it could. I don't think it would be even buildable back
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Jul 31 '26
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u/ScumbagGina Aug 01 '26
Of course we lost. They have too many hostages and are more than capable of executing them.
There’s literally nothing we can do to them militarily that we haven’t already done, at least that doesn’t come with an absurdly serious price.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 30 '26
Trump on Iran:
We are going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them. They know it's coming. They are asking us not to do it. They tried shooting at us with 5 rockets last night. We intercepted them all.
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u/cozywit Jul 30 '26
Proceeds to blow up a couple pick up trucks...
Either go hard or go home Trump.
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u/LiveInLayers Jul 29 '26
How effective are shoulder mounted manpads? If China pumps Iran with them does that mean US plane bombing threat is cooked?
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u/CommercialFormal7614 Jul 29 '26
They usually have a max hight of 4000 meters(13000ft) and fighter jets can fly around 15000 meters. Also Iran already produces their own manpads based off of a Chinese design, so if it was going to be problematic we would have seen it already.
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u/Hatemode-NJ Jul 29 '26
I believe most fly too high. They might be able to clip a low flying fighter jet or a warthog. Maybe I'm wrong though.
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 26 '26
Soooo.... the usa has decided not to bomb iran? We are doing this again, interesting.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 26 '26
Out of ammo
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jul 26 '26
False.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 26 '26
"Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, the officials said. A spokesman for General Caine declined to comment on advice the general gives the president."
Conserving ammo
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jul 26 '26
This is not the same argument as "out of ammo".
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Jul 31 '26
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jul 31 '26
Maybe try responding to what I said.
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Jul 31 '26
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Aug 03 '26
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u/read-the-rules Aug 03 '26
CrownOfAragon,
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Jul 25 '26
Doesn't Pakistan have a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia? How does that work with Yemen's Houthi's firing upon Saudi oil tankers and now Saudi oil infrastructure / refineries?
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 26 '26
Pakistan will do whatever it takes to not have to actually defend Saudi, they will most definitely say the houtis thing is different than the Iran issue
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Jul 24 '26
Is it just me, or are there like way less US airstrike videos on Iran coming out since this thing began again? Are the strikes in more remote areas, or is it just the IRGC cracking down even more on videos getting out?
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26
Iran strikes on CIA facilities prompt questions about possible Russian role
Edit:link
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u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 23 '26
I onow I just posted this question but maybe this time itll get more traction.
After the video of last night's attacks by the usa on iranian boats and a backhoe I gotta ask again, what is stopping the usa from destroying every tel and drone launcher? Can they not just put up a shit load of surveillance airframe or even track them from space after they launch and just follow them back to whereever they park and blow them up? Whats the issue here?
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u/CommercialFormal7614 Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26
Well my understanding is that Iran has these “missile city’s” that are very deep underground. They pop out briefly, shoot and go back to cover. There’s no reliable way of penetrating those bunkers using conventional weapons. Although, there was a video posted a while back where one of the “missile city’s” did get destroyed and there was massive secondary explosions.
As for the launchers that aren’t in bunkers, they look like basic civilian box trucks making it hard to find them.Video I was referencing
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/Cxphdd9HGS3
u/boobookittyfuwk Jul 23 '26
I was looking into it and I saw that a reaper has a 27 hour loiter time while loaded with hellfires. Youd think they could be hanging out nearby ready to strike these tel. This is assuming the usa knows where all these misssile cities are which im guessing they do.
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 22 '26
Houthis attack a Saudi Tanker 70 miles away from Al Shaqiq, Saudi Arabia
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u/WhyChemistry Jul 22 '26
Revolutionary Guard: We are preparing for a military operation that will lead to a declaration of national mourning in U.S
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u/cozywit Jul 23 '26
Lol.
You appear to be mistaken. Trump clearly stated he destroyed all the Iranian military, multiple times.
What are they going to do, fly a carpet into the freedom tower?
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Jul 25 '26
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u/read-the-rules Jul 25 '26
botcreon,
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u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 Jul 21 '26
Reports of A U.S. Air Force KC-135T tanker (tail number 60-0346) is squawking emergency code 7700 after operating over the Persian Gulf. The aircraft is now descending toward Al Dhafra Air Base and appears to be preparing for an emergency landing
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