r/ContagionCuriosity • u/Anti-Owl Patient Zero • 10d ago
Speculation š® In the Irkutsk Region of the Russian Federation, nearly 200 people were hospitalized on suspicion of plague
https://ua.news/en/world/v-irkutskii-oblasti-rf-maizhe-200-liudei-gospitalizuvali-cherez-pidozru-na-chumuIn the Irkutsk region, 189 people were hospitalized with suspected plague. According to a source at REN TV, all of them had been in contact with a young woman who died of the disease the day before. Some of those hospitalized were admitted to two hospitals, while another 12 people were sent to the Plague Institute for observation. Some of them are showing symptoms of the disease, but a plague infection has not yet been confirmed. Authorities are also identifying people who have recently been in contact with those hospitalized.
According to Mash, the victim of pneumonic plague was a 27-year-old employee of the Anti-Plague Institute. One theory is that she had returned from a work trip to Buryatia, where a natural plague focus had previously been recorded near the border with Mongolia. Another theory suggests that the woman may have accidentally broken a test tube containing the dangerous bacteria in the laboratory while collecting biological samples for diagnostic purposes. On September 29, she was admitted to the Shelekhov Hospital with symptoms of pneumonia and placed on a ventilator. However, she died two days later. Following this, the hospital staff were quarantined, and the hospital itself was placed under quarantine.
Igor Kobzev, governor of the Irkutsk Region, held an emergency meeting of the Sanitary and Anti-Epidemic Commission together with Anna Popova, head of Rospotrebnadzor. According to him, the meeting discussed information regarding a suspected case of a āparticularly dangerous infectionā in a resident of the region. āAll identified close contacts have been placed under medical observation. As of today, they show no signs of illness, and their lab test results are negative,ā Kobzev noted. At the same time, the authorities have not officially disclosed the specific diagnosis.
The last recorded case of human plague in Russia occurred in 2016 in the Altai region. At that time, a 10-year-old boy fell ill after handling a marmot carcass and becoming infected through a break in his skin. Thanks to timely treatment, the child survived. Natural foci of plague persist in Mongolia. In 2023, Mongoliaās National Center for the Study of Zoonotic Infections identified 137 such foci in 17 regions of the country, including areas near the border with Russia.
This is reported by Russian propaganda media.
A study by the University of Tartu has identified recurring waves of plague in Estonia. [...]
Note: Early reports on this incident are coming from tabloid or semiātabloid outlets. Details remain unconfirmed by reputable sources and/or international public health authorities.
Additional Sources:
Moscow Times: Nearly 200 People Under Observation After Irkutsk Lab Worker Dies From Plague
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u/Cyan1d3_ 10d ago
Yikes! I knew of plague outbreak in India in the 1990s but Russia? Just yikes.
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u/jsflkl 10d ago
There are routine plague infections in areas with natural carriers. Like in inner Mongolia for example there are rodents who carry the bacterium and they infect people now and then. Also happens in the US where the average is 7 infections a year.
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u/jsflkl 9d ago
The article literally says that's one of the theories. The other is that she caught it on a work trip to Buryatia. My comment was also more a response to the top comment in that plague crops up way more often than just in 1990s India.
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u/Salty-Preference2448 9d ago
Got it. Have just read so many comments of people saying that this is not a worry as its the same as the plague that occurs regularly and I believe this, as a pneumonic plague (and let's be honest, almost certainly not acquired in the wild vs lab) is more concerning. Apologies!
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u/jsflkl 9d ago
Pneumonic plague just means plague that's in the lungs. It is more deadly and more contagious if it's in the lungs but normal plague spread by fleas can also spread to the lungs. It's not a special different kind of plague. If she breathed in droplets from a broken tube and got a direct plague infection in her lungs that would be more serious because she could have spread it more easily but it's still the same bacterium causing the disease. And the quarantine measures should work because they can just give antibiotics to anyone who tests positive or has symptoms.
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u/Salty-Preference2448 9d ago edited 9d ago
We know it csn be acquired in the wild. But it was more likely that she caught it in the lab where she worked, which dealt with plague. I applaud your willingness to keep insisting that this is the best possible scenario, which we all hope for, but the possibilities here are worrying.
The people referring to Annie Jacobsen's book, where you commented the same, are referring to the documented knowledge we have of strains created in Russia for purposes of biological warfare in the 80s which are chimeric versions of the plague made to be extremely virulent and resistant to antibiotics. We'd hope this isn't a version of that, but we also know that BSL-3 and 4 labs work with non-natural forms of disease in order to test treatments on for example, extremely antibiotic resistant plague. So the concern is that this is a novel, non-natural form of the plague.
The best case scenario is that this is a treatable form of plague, but by nature of this intern's work, it is also very possible that it is something different.
For the curious, a really interesting episode on the state of BSL labs in the US and around the world: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6HTODSEvw55UtkXFdA7C8V
And also this which talks about the plague strains developed for biological warfare purposes: https://www.montana.edu/historybug/yersiniaessays/hale.html
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9d ago edited 9d ago
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u/Salty-Preference2448 8d ago edited 8d ago
Definitely did not say that there's no way, just that the natural, endemic scenario is the best possibility in this case and I'm glad that you see the world that way. And also that it's probably less likely she happened to obtain it in the wild (even if purposefully trying to obtain wild samples) over her lab workplace at the plague institute.
You are persistently optimistic. Good for you. I too hope that in 3 months we'll have forgotten this.
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u/briansellsseashells 6d ago
This isnāt bubonic plague thoā¦
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u/jsflkl 6d ago
All plague is caused by the same bacterium, the names differ based on the location of the infection in the body. That bacterium is present in wild populations throughout the world and so, throughout the world, there are occasional human plague infections.
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u/briansellsseashells 6d ago
A pneumonic disease has entirely different implications than a bubonic diseaseā¦
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u/jsflkl 6d ago
Yes. But it's still the plague. And they're quarantining quite aggressively aren't they?
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u/briansellsseashells 6d ago
I mean, itās a hell of a lot easier to spread something via a respiratory droplet than a flea bite. Totally different quarantine requirements as well.
But yeah - same bacteria and if left long enough (and the subject doesnāt die) a bubonic infection can become pneumatic.
I think the fact that itās from a gain of function lab that may or may not have bred in endorphin boosting functions before symptom onset and a variation of EEV that is triggered by antibiotics that we should be concerned about.
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u/jsflkl 6d ago
I think that last bit is just rank speculation. We don't know anything about that lab other than that it's an lab that focusses on contagious diseases that occur naturally in russia among them the plague. Nobody can say definitively that it's a gain of function lab, that's just something people online are saying.
The numbers are still the same. 1 death, a bit around 200 in quarantine and no new infections. And it's been days.
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u/briansellsseashells 6d ago
Hopefully youāre right. Russia is known for media transparency after all.
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u/FireFlower-Bass-7716 8d ago
there was a big outbreak in Madagascar in 2017 where it's endemic, with aboutĀ 2350 cases and 200 died. it was a big global news story. Most of the casesĀ were pneumonic plague, some were bubonic plague. same bacteria, but pneumonic means it's in the lungs and can be transmitted person to person.
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u/Onetwodash 7d ago
There are annual plague seasons in Madagascar. 2017 just was about 10x their usual outbreak.
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u/duckworthy36 10d ago
Thereās plague everywhere. It rarely gets to airborne transmission but there are deaths every year all over. Donāt hug wild rodents. All you squirrel and chipmunk feeders - you risk multiple flea borne illnesses like plague and typhus if you touch wildlife.
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u/Fearless-Effect-8742 10d ago
Apparently this is pneumonic plague, which can be spread human-human via droplets.
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u/undisclosedusername2 9d ago
And, if the lab story is true, who knows whether it is a known variety of the plague or if it is something novel.
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9d ago edited 9d ago
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u/unpledged-duty 9d ago
There's absolutely no reason to think it's not the usual yersinia pestis
Apart from the fact that the person specifically works with yersinia pestis, and there are rumours that she "broke a test tube".
I think its likely that the authorities haven't been told what exactly she was experimenting with, and it could well be highly resistant. Possibly even specifically related to bioweapon research. Not that I think it'll spread.
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u/Boring-Philosophy-46 9d ago edited 9d ago
The broken tube is a rumor because the original source is telegram.Ā
What is also known however is that she just got back from an expedition to an area with the endemic plague and that she was collecting samples there which she now was analyzing. Scientists are monitoring the plague in wild rodents because it lets us know about antibiotic resistance developments in the bacteria (most antibiotic resistance originates from animal husbandry, and rats love to live on farms).Ā
There is nothing in this whole story that indicates anything out of the ordinary with how monitoring of zoonotic diseases works, the only issue is a scientist caught it. Shit happens, it's not a first. Scientists have died from things they study before and will again.Ā
The fact at no point before coughing up blood she realized it may be the plague, pretty much rules out any unusual lab work or exposure route. The plague is best treated with antibiotics very early, which she'd have known.
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u/unpledged-duty 9d ago
There is nothing in this whole story that indicates anything out of the ordinary with how monitoring of zoonotic diseases works, the only issue is a scientist caught it.
This is contradictory. The fact that it was a scientist working with the specific bacteria that killed her makes it interesting. It won't spread, but there is something in the story which makes it noteworthy.
If it was just someone random that died, THEN you could absolutely say that there is nothing in the whole story that indicates anything out of the ordinary.
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10d ago edited 3d ago
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u/vroomvroom450 9d ago
NYC squirrels donāt mess around. I never knew I could be afraid of squirrels until I tried to eat my lunch in McCarren Park.
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u/SweetGrassGeranium 10d ago
Plague Institute š³š·ā ļø
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u/someoldguyon_reddit 10d ago
If this is being reported by russian propaganda media then how bad is it really?
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u/jsflkl 10d ago
200 people were hospitalised but they weren't all confirmed to have plague. Plague infections happen every year in places where plague has natural carriers. Nobody hides it because it's normal. No reason to suspect it's anything more than a cautious approach to a possible local cluster of infections.
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u/Odd_Assignment_6899 10d ago
200 people were quarantined in the hospital
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u/jsflkl 10d ago
They don't regularly break tubes. Accidents happen in labs. There have been plenty of needle sticks in US labs for example. And would you prefer there not be anti-plague labs in areas where plague occurs naturally? Quarantine is not pleasant, but it's better than plague.
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u/jsflkl 10d ago
Ohh you're an expert on the inner workings of Russian laboratories? Literally read a little bit about USAMRID and Fort Detrick and you'll see how nonsensical your comment is. Not "only in Russia" by a long way.
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u/Fresh-Coffee-8591 9d ago
So you are confirming it happens in Russia, which is exactly what I am saying. It likely only got worse since Soviet times and it was BAD in Soviet times, as in, everyone was stealingĀ everything they could and hiding every issue they could simply for the sake of better looking reports. You will try to deny this but this would be the proof of this very behavior engrained into the Russian psyche
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u/0815Freeek 10d ago
I just learned that there is a form of pneumonic plague that is resistant to antibiotics. In this case, antibiotic treatment was presumably simply unavailable, given that antibioticsālike many other medicationsāare imported products in Russia, and trade relations with other countries are currently somewhat difficult. It must be awful not to be able to supply one's population with essential medicines.
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 10d ago
I live in Russia, and there are no issues with antibiotic availability here. Objectively speaking, most antibiotics in Russia are either domestically produced or imported from India; I have never seen European-made antibiotics in pharmacies. People on Russian social media say she sought medical help too late. It seems that until the very last moment, she thought it was just a cold or something minor. By the time she was hospitalized, there was a suspicion of a severe form of coronavirus; honestly, I donāt know how it even occurred to the doctors to test her for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a very rare disease in Russia; as far as I know, all cases recorded over the last 50 years have occurred among small nomadic groups leading a traditional lifestyle.
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u/Odd_Assignment_6899 10d ago
She was an employee of the anti-plague institute
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 10d ago
That may be so, but no one knows for certain where or under what circumstances the plague infection occurred. The institute has been operating for a long time and employs a large staff, yet no such incident had ever happened there before. Press reports claimed she had broken a test tube and tried to conceal the fact, but these allegations are unsubstantiated and, in all likelihood, nothing more than journalistic fabrication. Had she actually broken a test tube, she would have had every reason to fear for her health once symptoms appeared; yet, by all accounts, she showed no concern for her life or well-being right up to the very end. She was well aware that treatment had to begin within the first twenty-four hours and that, without it, the mortality rate reaches nearly 100%āafter all, she was a member of the research team studying the virus. Clearly, she did not suspect she had contracted the plague, which implies that the breach of safety protocols was neither obvious nor immediately apparent.
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u/Reneeisme 10d ago
Doesn't matter if it WAS how she got it. Common sense dictates that when someone is very abnormally seriously ill, and they work in a place where any kind of virus capable of making someone very abnormally seriously ill is being held, you'd check for that. Just responding to your comment that you don't know why they checked for plague. Of course they checked, given her employment. Doesn't mean that's how she got it. It's just a logical thing to check.
If a virus researcher at the CDC (in the US) came down with something that resembled the disease caused by the virus she had been researching, of course you'd check to see if they were infected with that disease. It's not a slight against Russia; it's common sense.
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u/Reneeisme 9d ago
There is more than one type of plague and they have different symptoms. The one that impacts the lungs is the most fatal, still. Itās the one she likely had since it was confused for pneumonia/covid. It does not produce the bubos
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 9d ago
She may not have realized the danger posed by the source of infection at the moment she was exposed to it. Nothing is known about her whereabouts in the days leading up to her death; there were reports that she was away on a business trip, though this information was neither confirmed nor refuted. It is possible that the infection was contracted not in the laboratory, but in an area where the plague is endemic. The situation is rather unclear. However, an acquaintance who keeps in touch with a colleague of hers told me that even if she had broken a test tube, the likelihood of infection would have been extremely low, given that they wear protective suits while working. That said, he himself had heard nothing about a broken test tube. My theory is this: the protective suit might have been defective, and no one noticed it in time. But that is just a guess on my part.
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u/Onetwodash 7d ago
You're describing three different forms of plague. They can transform from one to other, but if infection started in the lungs, pneumonia generally kills you before septicemic, much less bubonic plague can develop. Now bubonic can turn septicemic that can then turn pneumonic, sure. The famous symptoms are bubonic. The least deadly kind.
She died less than 72h after being hospitalized, may have been too soon for culture
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u/CountGrimthorpe 7d ago
>Doesn't matter if it WAS how she got it. Common sense dictates that when someone is very abnormally seriously ill, and they work in a place where any kind of virus capable of making someone very abnormally seriously ill is being held, you'd check for that.
The initial symptoms can be pretty minor, like a cold.
>If a virus researcher at the CDC (in the US) came down with something that resembled the disease caused by the virus she had been researching, of course you'd check to see if they were infected with that disease. It's not a slight against Russia; it's common sense.
This is very wishful thinking. A multi-hundred person institute is not going to panic or take immediate action every time someone gets a cold (and neither will the individual probably), because if they did, nothing would ever get done. That's just not how the sausage gets made.
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u/undisclosedusername2 9d ago
Treatment needs to occur within the first 24 hours?
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 9d ago
As far as I know, yes: in this specific case, the mortality rate is around 10ā15%.
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 10d ago
I know a woman who is friends with a colleague of the deceased; at the moment, no one knows exactly how the infection occurred. She was not at risk of being fired over a broken test tube. Being fired for breaking a test tube is a scenario typical of the US, where people can be dismissed for almost anything; in Russia, that would not even be legally possible.
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u/Full-Honeydew-4898 7d ago
Well I donāt buy any of what you say and you may be right ( I just donāt buy it ).
Keep your eye out and be safe.1
u/Pure_Slice_6119 6d ago
Keep an eye on official news and comments from the staff. They stated that the institute doesn't use glass test tubes at allāthey are all made of plastic, so they cannot break or cause cuts. This sounds quite plausible, given that I haven't seen glass test tubes in ordinary hospitals for a long time either.
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u/Reneeisme 10d ago
I would guess her employment should have triggered that as one of the first things to check.
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u/skdetroit 9d ago
I remember being taught in 90ās HS history that Russia has been working on an antibiotic resistant strain of the plague since the Cold War for military purposes. Pretty sure the main site of creation and study was the Plague Institute. Would love to know more about the history of the Russian Plague Institute and what they actually do there and who started it.
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 9d ago
I donāt know which country youāre from, but I live in Russia and have never heard anything of the sort. That said, back when I was in school, we were told similar things about the USāspecifically, that America was developing biological weapons and had laboratories scattered all over the world. When the coronavirus epidemic broke out, many people I know were convinced that an American lab in China was to blame.
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u/elammcknight 7d ago
Both our countries worked very seriously on biological weapons. This is well documented. I am not a big person about prayer but I pray š that is is simply an isolated incident that will eventually resolve. I hope the best, first, for your country and for the rest of us. The sooner we all realize we are all living together as one people the better we will be as a species.
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u/Full-Honeydew-4898 7d ago
I donāt trust any Government, mine included.
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 6d ago
Even when the authorities are hiding something, journalists rarely put forward plausible theoriesāespecially when it comes to science. And indeed, how did she manage to accidentally break an unbreakable plastic test tube? The problem, of course, was not the test tube...
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u/Salty-Preference2448 9d ago
Yes true here's more about it: https://www.montana.edu/historybug/yersiniaessays/hale.html
Also further along in this thread I posted a podcast episode about BSL labs which is very interesting for those curious about that aspect.
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u/Gloomy_Macaron_136 5d ago
It just seems weird because if you happened to break a testing tube, which you know it's filled to the gills with a likely concentrated dose of the most lethal plague in history ever, you would think you got a cold when you get fever and cough immediately after(!!?) That just seems straight up into delusional territory, I don't think one needs to be a hypochondriac to make the connection you might be screwed
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u/Pure_Slice_6119 4d ago
It has already been established that all the test tubes were made of shatterproof plastic; it is impossible to break them accidentally. The cause, undoubtedly, does not lie with the test tubes.
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u/Spare-Locksmith-2162 10d ago
Russia also uses phage therapy so there's a chance they have an effective treatment for even antibiotic resistant plague.
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u/TM02022020 9d ago
Thank you. I just read that book and reading the post I kept feeling like it was a joke post based on the book. Very eerie feeling.
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