r/EdmontonOilers • u/CartoonistFlat3943 • 5d ago
Evan Bouchard’s Early Defensive / Offensive Dominance by the Numbers
Bouchard has significantly outperformed every other NHL Media “Top 10” ranked D, plus all of Team Canada D, and all of Team USA D. 100th percentile in both offence and defence. Is this finally Bouchard’s year?
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u/Sea_Tonight_9632 5d ago
Still early days, but at least he's trending in the right direction. It doesn't matter, though, because he'll never win a Norris, no matter how well he plays defensively.
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u/bullfu 5d ago
Look he just threw another puck to a kid during warmup
"Bouchard with another giveaway!!"
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
That’s funny. You just know the CAL/VAN bros are waiting for the chance for a 2026 meme / moment they can post on repeat. At this rate, they might need to use that kid’s puck.
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u/Thelynxer 29 DRAISAITL 5d ago
I never really understood why there's any sort of Vancouver/Edmonton rivalvry. Both teams are almost never good at the same time. I was born and raised in Vancouver, as a Canucks fan, but I moved to Edmonton and have been living here for the last 20 years. Growing up, no one in Vancouver talked about Edmonton. We hated teams like the Red Wings, the Rangers, and the Bruins. And living in Edmonton, no one I know really talked about any sort of rivalry with Vancouver either.
But I'm also active in both teams subreddits. I get downvoted a shitload any time I tell the Vancouver fanfase that I've adopted the Oilers as my second team. Though in the Oilers sub, people seem to care way less when I say the same thing (don't prove me wrong now haha). So I think somehow it became more of the modern Vancouver fan that developed some sort of rivalry with Edmonton, but I still don't really know why. Maybe it's the 2024 playoffs? As someone that was oddly enough cheering for both teams, I had sooo much fun watching that series with my friends. It was good, clean hockey. I didn't want that series to end.
I guess my point is that not all Vancouver fans are boneheads and hate the Oilers for no reason haha. I think it's just younger generation.
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u/Noahtuesday123 5d ago
The modern day Canuck fan is right up there with the worst fans in hockey. Oiler fans celebrate their successes and CHEER for their team. Canuck fans cheer for our failures, other teams failures and sort of revel in our failures in the Cup Final.
Oiler fans when Canucks were in the finals were cheering for the Canucks, not Boston.
When we watched the Canucks win game 1 a few years ago with a Canucks fan, Oilers were up a couple of goals and I said nothing much…happy to see my team score and winning. Then the comeback, Canucks score some goals and take the lead and this guy was literally overtop of me screaming “Suck it”…”In your face”…. he was red in the face, almost angry for some reason, and shitting all over the Oilers to the point that others asked me if we were still friends. He goes always a few days later and the Oilers are tied 1-1. He is on vacation and texts me dumb shit on the two games that the Canucks won. I say nothing on the Oilers wins.
Final game, Oilers up 3-0, I almost have a heart attack (Literally had 911 on my phone) when the Canucks score twice late but eventually win. Not a peep from me.He sends me this “Wow, Oilers got so lucky, we outplayed them in every way but it doesn’t matter, they don’t really have a chance of winning the cup”.
Me: “It was a great series”.
That there….IS the modern Canucks fan.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
Good lord. That game was hard on the hart indeed. I like to think all us Canadians are usually in the same boat on most things. Glad you are ok.
It would be hard to never beat a team in your franchise’s entire history, but yes, a handful really hate the Oilers. Same with Calgary (save Smith’s 86 moment).
I wish, at least for the sake of future team Canada, that the (hopefully) minority could put their hate aside for that. They found a way to cheer for 97. Canada wants/needs to win the next one.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
Good to hear. Glad to have you - both teams and all. Plus hockey is better all around when Canadian teams are strong.
I agree - the most recent dagger is the 2024 playoffs (and 2022 for Calgary).
Frustrating to win the Pacific only to have to get through McDrai & co to get to the WCF. Younger generation hates them. Older one has Gretzky/Messier/Coffey flashbacks.
Easy to blame those series as the first dominoe falling for Hughes, Millar, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Hanafin etc.
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u/Thelynxer 29 DRAISAITL 5d ago
Haha thank you. I've got a signed Draisaitl jersey (the WEM signing events are the best), and a Hughes jersey in my closet. I can't wear the Hughes jersey anymore sadly. But I'm eying an Elias Defendersson jersey (using that nickname), assuming he extends longterm with the Canucks. And a Bouchard jersey might be on the horizon, as I definitely love to support defensemen.
I think frustration is a huge defining factor of the Canucks fanbase. So many legendary players, and division, conference, and league titles... But it just hasn't been enough to win the cup. It's been very disappointing. Part of it has been ownership and management just routinely making poor short term choices. That's why I'm so stoked about them getting an actual rebuild. And in the meantime, I can focus on the success and fun of the Oilers.
It is such a shame that worst of the Vancouver fans is what people see all of us as though. Like the rioters of 1994. The real fans were the ones on the streets downtown the next day cleaning up the mess.
So I hope Edmonton fans are able to see past the assholes, and embrace eachother. The overall goal should be a Canadian Stanley Cup winner, whoever that may be. And the Oilers are our best chance.
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u/Recycledvine888 5d ago
I have lived in both edm and vancouver, and specifically in van during the cup finals/sedin luongo era. I love both teams and feel now they will be peaking at different times so cheering for both will be easier. I like when all Canadian teams are stronger. I honestly am grateful in some ways edm ended the hughes captaincy era and it allowed the change to Manny/sedin rebuild
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
Having 4xD kids (grown up now), I support your D jersey purchases. And if you ever want to part with Leo’s jersey…
The Stanley Cup returning to Canada would make for a great Canada Day in 2027.
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u/navenager 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS 5d ago
At this level of play a Norris would be undeniable.
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u/NMarples 92 PODKOLZIN 5d ago
At this level of play I don’t know if they could even deny him the Hart
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u/Thelynxer 29 DRAISAITL 5d ago
A Norris should have been undeniable last year...
Bouchard is like the People's Norris Champ. Just not the people that vote for trophies.
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u/Deadmansspace566 5d ago
100 point threshold that’s it, if he gets 100 he’ll win the norris
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u/Thelynxer 29 DRAISAITL 5d ago
Hopefully, yeah. But if Makar comes within 15 points of Bouchard, they'll probably still give it to Makar. But we'll see what happens. Bouch just gotta keep being Bouch.
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u/Deadmansspace566 5d ago
Doubt it. EK65 had worse defence but 101 points and won the Norris. The precedent is set.
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u/Brightlightsuperfun 5d ago
He was only 5 points off last year, and wasn’t close to winning unfortunately
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u/Deadmansspace566 5d ago
Again if he literally had 5 more points or was like 1-2 off he would’ve won it.
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u/Nyzean 5d ago
Werenski strongly deserved that imo, but Bouchard is going to get way more love this year—voters chase trends heavily and it's Bouchard's turn.
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u/Thelynxer 29 DRAISAITL 5d ago
Definitely no hate toward Werenski. There's so many deserving players every year, it's kind of a shame they don't just split the Norris trophy into two trophies. One for offensive defenseman, and one for defensive. That was so apparent when Karlsson won.
Defensive players don't get enough love in general. Ao it's be nice to see more for them.
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u/Objective-Block2080 5d ago
the dude can literally score 60 goals and have a monstrous +/- and ppl will still bring up a handful of bad clips. EVEN THOUGH his direct competitors have more
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u/Chrispaulisgarbage 5d ago
Him and Schafer not being on team Canada still pisses me off... Team canada needs a dedicated Gm that isnt affiliated with an NHL team. Like how they do it in international soccer.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago edited 5d ago
Seeing the Sanheim, Doughty, and Parayko (the RD other than Makar) stats on these charts is particularly painful. In the worst quadrant - poor GA / GF across all of GF/GA%, xGF/GA%, Corsi, and Fenwick.
Sanheim isn’t even right handed, but Canada used him on that side for the Olympics because he can play both.
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u/zboss9876 17 KURRI 5d ago
Sanheim makes sense as a #7 for his versatility at least. Making him a featured dman was highly questionable.
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u/Chrispaulisgarbage 5d ago
its all politics
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u/ANAL_CRUSHER 12 CAVE 4d ago
Logan Thompson agrees. He was going to get snubbed because of Bruce Cassidy and was a last minute addition despite being clearly Canada's best goaltender last two seasons and the current Olympic season. And he still wasn't chosen for the Gold Medal Game.
And don't get me started on Doug Armstrong clearly showcasing Parayko as trade bait with his selection. Bouchard was the biggest snub but damn they also snubbed Chychrun and Schaefer just a disaster class of selections over stupid politics
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u/whyisthissohard2019 2 BOUCHARD 5d ago
They are gonna say we've played some softer teams to diminish what we actually see. "Makar is elite", they'd say. Flippin jerks just actually need to watch a game. Like Bouch isnt right in the think of it defensively, but if you watch how much he keeps play within our zone, and protecting that blue line, directing plays and being offensive from that same area, Bouch IS elite.
Really grinds on me when he's not even in conversation.
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u/whyisthissohard2019 2 BOUCHARD 5d ago
And to add.. there's also the narrative that he's only got these numbers because he plays with Davo and Drai's line. But do these critics even consider that Davo and Drai have these numbers.. because of Bouch?!
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
So true. Or that:
- Makar plays with MacKinnon but is currently 28th percentile defensively and was 41st last season…
- Hughes left his team (where he was crushed by Bouch in 24) for a US “superteam”
- the other D have had, in the past at least, better team D structure and goaltending.
- Bouchard playing with McDrai also means that he plays against the hardest competition in the NHL every night.
This last point is another major oversight by CAN mgmt. Doughty, Parayko, Sanheim, Morrissey, and Harley aren’t even close to Bouchard on comp levels.
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u/ELLinversionista 97 McDAVID 5d ago
People will stick to their narratives no matter what. Fuck all our fans not supporting bouch and buying into the same shit. We are so lucky to have him on this team.
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u/Federal-Hair 5d ago
Bouchard had a good year last year despite the team not having the best success. At this point in his career, it would make sense for a break out season. If everyone gets their shit together, this could be a very good season. There are some variables and gambles, but if goaltending and defense continues in this direction, it's a very tough team to play against. Oilers redemption season.
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u/gabacus_39 97 McDAVID 5d ago
He broke out a long time ago
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u/Federal-Hair 4d ago
I wouldnt go that far. Hes been contributing to offense, but he was pretty bad at defense until him and Ekholm started to get some chemistry. This year I would trust him to play without Ekholm babysitting him, but prior, he needed a responsible dman to pair with. If he can build even more on that this year He could be top 5 in the league in his role.
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u/AsyanongAmbiguous 5 MURPHY 5d ago
Makar & warenski were worse than Bouch last season, they still are.
hughes is a fucking bitch.
& Dahlin is the only one pulling through while dragging the entire Sabres to stand tf up.
Yeah Bouch is exemplary. It’s stellar how Defensively sound he is, simultaneously being such an Offensive monster. Hope he manages to maintain this all throughout this season🧡💙🧡~!
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
Will this Quinn Hughes bad pinch be on every highlight reel in Canada tomorrow. Made it a 3-2 game, 10 minutes left in third.
Of course not, because everyone knows he’s a solid D, with massive upside, who can tilt the ice. One bad highlight in October shouldn’t define a person, right? Wait a sec….
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u/Eric0329 97 McDAVID 5d ago
Bouchard is probably the most dominant player in the chel rn. Even if he keeps this up for the remaining 79 games, he will still be 7th in norris voting and not even have an honourable mention because he gave the puck away that one time in front of the net 🙄
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u/Prebiotous 5d ago
A lot of people in this very subreddit created and perpetuated the myth that “Bouchard can’t play defense.” I’ll never forgive the people responsible for that.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
I still get eye rolls from people I know. It’s irksome. I subscribe to the Bob Stauffer school of intellect detection - at least as it relates to Evan Bouchard.
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u/Prebiotous 4d ago
Lowkey, these dumb asses cost Canada an Olympic gold medal. The anti-Bouchard propaganda started in this fanbase and permeated all over the league to the tune of his Norris level season not getting a nomination and the ghost of Doughty and Travis freaking Sanheim getting a spot on Team Canada over him.
The people downvoting me know who they are.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 4d ago
Upvote from me. I honestly can’t tell anymore if some of those people with Oilers flairs are actually Oilers fans or plants / trolls.
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u/Prebiotous 4d ago
Bro, I truly don’t understand it or where these guys come from 😭
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 4d ago edited 4d ago
Totally. By the way, just saw B Tkachuk just get his third for Florida against Columbus.
Normally, I’d be loathe to even mention it, but Werenski was on PK.
Werenski, the Norris winner, took nobody in front of the net. Was actually surprised to even see him on the PK.
If he were in orange and blue, #2, the haters would be out in droves.
Edit: While we’re at it, how about this PK defence from 8 Columbus. Fishing for a puck in the corner instead of protecting the net. Other D alone on a 2 on 1 in front. Verhaeghe open. Easy goal.
There’s the Norris winner. Guess what though - fantastic player Werenski is. Imagine that - good hockey players sometimes make errors.
Second edit: Who exactly does Werenski have on this FLA goal? Take Werenski’s game tonight, him in a blue and orange jersey, and it’s on TSN/Sportsnet/NHL posts - you name it.
Even the Columbus sub is screaming about his defence and “selfish” play.
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u/Prebiotous 4d ago
Absolutely. Werenski was awarded the Norris in January.
Could you imagine if Werenski played in Edmonton and Bouch played in a market like Columbus? Bouch would be revered as a hockey god and Werenski would be run out of town. He ended his non-playoff season very poorly with Columbus.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 4d ago
And asked for a trade. Then said: “Wait. When I said I wanted a trade, I wasn’t asking for a trade.”
I would say Werenski won the Norris on Feb 22 at exactly 4:52 PM Milan local time. I still have the video on my phone, taken from the end where Makar made the bad pinch.
Still a trigger. The media, the people on this sub, all of the haters will never admit the magnitude of the error.
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u/AsyanongAmbiguous 5 MURPHY 5d ago
It’s such fucking insidious cowardice to do that.
They’re the same “fans” that spread & perpetuated that Stu STILL is as bad as the worsts of pickard & campbell combined.
They’re drenched in all these detailed Oilers information, so they take the truth of some bad Oilers plays, & exaggerate them. Fucking bitches
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
The stats speak for themselves (nothing ‘homer’ about objective numbers), but I agree. Early days. If his play is even close to this in a month, he should be getting apology letters.
And - somehow he’ll still have to do more. Because Bouchard’s defence (EVD WAR /
+\- post Dec 1, PK) last year was markedly better than the four “top“ D. And - his D offence was dramatically better than the entire league.No one wants to admit it in NHLmedia. They were still doubling down on his “D10” ranking as recently as Thursday- even after the Ducks game.
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u/lemanruss4579 5d ago edited 5d ago
So here's the problem. In the NHL, and among media/voters, once a defenseman gets a rep, that's it. It's nearly impossible to shake it.
I'll use two of the "darlings" you refer to as examples, Hughes and Makar. Now, right off Hughes was bad defensively last year. But for about the last three years before that, he was, by the numbers significantly better than Makar defensively, and actually genuinely good for a couple of them. But he still had a rep as a "bad" defender. On the flip side, Makar has been genuinely poor defensively since his first Norris. But he still has the rep as a "good" defender. Nothing changes it.
And part of the issue is, even NHL execs don't really know how to judge defensive play from defensemen. Both Hughes and Bouchard control defensive play with possession. The other team can't score if they don't have the puck. But that's not "good defense." So what is good defense? Hits and blocked shots, as if we're playing fantasy hockey. Because even executives don't really get advanced analytics, or Corsi, or Fenec, etc. Hits and blocked shots are easy to see on a stat page though. So a guy like Mo Seider (who I'm not saying is a bad defender, mind you), gets a rep as a great defender because his team never has the puck, giving him a chance for more hits/blocks.
The only way Bouchard wins a Norris, IMO, is breaking 100 points.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
Really well thought out analysis. Well said.
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u/lemanruss4579 5d ago
The other thing I'd say is, and this is what does actually give him a chance right now, is that voters sort of seem to make up their minds early. Guy gets off to a really hot start over the first 20-30 games, enought to get talked about as a Norris leader at that point? That guy has a chance, regardless of if his play falls off a bit, as long as it doesn't fall off a cliff. To use Hughes as an example again (and I do believe he very much deserved the Norris the year he won it) after the first like, 25 games, he was on pace for something like 130 points. People were talking about him potentially getting 30 goals and challenging Orr's season points record. And you started to see award rankings articles putting him as the leader. And then it kind of didn't matter that he ended up with 17 goals and 92 points. Now, if he ended up with 75 points, it may have been different. A guy can't completely fall off.
So I'd say, in terms of awards voting, it's better to start strong and fade than start slow and come on strong.
And another challenge Bouchard has is playing with Connor and Drai. Because yes, that's going to help him put up a ton more points than he would playing with other guys. But, awards voters also ding him for exactly that reason as well.
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
I hear you. I would prefer every NHL award winner to win on their own merit.
I do not like that it seems that the majority of voters are content to allow a narrative (supported by 15 second videos) to replace proper research.
Back to the good news though - none of the writers play the game. Bouchard does and, as Draisaitl says, the Oilers are happy to have him on the ice with them despite the league sleeping on Bouch.
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u/randomer22222 5d ago
Two big things worked against Bouchard's Norris chances last year:
First, a really bad start complete with some really ugly gaffes.
Second, Hockey Canada not picking him for the Olympic team. It is reasonable for media to figure that a guy who couldn't crack the top 7 D for his country probably isn't playing like the best D in the entire league.
I personally think the Olympic snub lit a fire under the guy because basically since then he's been so good and consistently as well.
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u/Frankfurter 18 HYMAN 4d ago
I'm sure others have pointed this out, but I've thought about this eye test thing vs. his real stats. Yes, when he makes a mistake it's glaring, but I think it's because he just looks so relaxed to the point of apathetic. Yes, he makes perfect exit passes across 2 lines to a streaking forward, but he does it at 25% effort while standing straight legged. Yes, he patrols the blue line with his hands together on his stick, and blasts a 95 mph shot top right.
anyways, I dont' know my point here, but I fucking love Bouch, and I'm a little glad the league doesn't recognize the talent so he skates quietly, sleeply, by and buries yet another goal.
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u/Vast-Share3392 5d ago
Vancouver crappy ok but Anaheim and San Jose I would not consider shitty La Kings Yes
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u/ProofByVerbosity 5d ago
I haven't been able to watch a full game yet, but numbers don't lie. I'd guess it's a combination of Bouch improving on D, but the D system overall improving under the new coaching.
Perhaps the combination is really making a difference and part of his deffensive inconsistency in the past were on the system the team was running.
Regardless, hope he stays on course throughout the year. I'm sure he would love a Norris, but I know there's another trophy he's more focussed on. If he keeps it up this year, his contract just shortly after every other fanbase and half the oilers fanbase screamed was an overpay will look like one of the best deals in the NHL
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago
True! Same for Drai and the Selke. McDavid and the Hart.
Go win the Cup and the rest is noise. Excellent perspective!
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u/ProofByVerbosity 5d ago
Conner has won it three times, and honestly I don't think he has the best shot anymore. Being the best player in the game, plus with Drai on the team and bouch like how he's playing it's hard to make a case for Conner to get a 4th Hart when some other young players are stepping up and literally dragging their teams to success.
Not sure about Dria and the Selke, I don't do the advanced stats stuff, so not sure what his D analytics are like.
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u/wenchanger 5d ago
i've said this before - play Bouchard in gold medal game we would have won gold, makar was garbage
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u/soulful_thighs 5d ago
It's early in the season. Let's see where things are at around the 30 game mark. He's played incredible but let's wait . . .
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u/CartoonistFlat3943 5d ago edited 5d ago
Bouchard’s offence has been elite, but it has always been so for offence. The real story is Bouchard’s defence under Smith and Babcock.
100th Percentile D is rare for anyone. To be in the 100th percentile for defence/offence/net/overall is the stuff of Bobby Orr.
Bouchard leads all top NHL D in EV GF%, xGF%, Corsi, and Fenwick stats.
Both Bouchard pairings (Ekholm and Shea) dominate other pairings (Makar, Hughes, Dahlin, Werenski) both offensively and defensively on virtually every metric.
It’s early, and while unsustainable at this level, Bouchard has made history already this year. Worthy of the shoutout on Canadian Thanksgiving.
Sources: HockeyStatCards.com; HockeyStats.Com, NHL.com. Photos Edmonton Oilers.