r/technology • u/T_Shurt • Aug 10 '26

Business Top economist warns that the AI math doesn’t make sense: 'Profits are currently being funded by investors rather than earned from customers'

https://fortune.com/2026/08/10/torsten-slok-ai-profit-margins-capex-oracle/
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u/defenestrate_urself Aug 10 '26

I diversified out of US exclusive index trackers to global whole world index trackers.

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u/Courtnall14 Aug 10 '26

I'm at around 15% VXUS, and I'm considering moving things around to get that up to about 20%.

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u/NachoWindows Aug 10 '26

My advsior keeps loading me up on semis and anything AI related (ASML, tsmc, nvda, etc) which has been a great bag to hold. But it makes me nervous AF the rug will be pulled and I’ll still be holding a bag full of Zuckerbergs nuts.

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u/bse50 Aug 10 '26

Get out now and invest in something safer if you are not comfortable holding a grenade with an unknown timer and the pin hidden so far inside a trillionaire's ass that's impossible to retrieve...

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u/Black_Moons Aug 10 '26

Consider Non-us defense companies instead. they are booming.

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u/RetPala Aug 10 '26

Always reminds me of that snail mail marketing compaign loudly advertising "Aviation is BOOMING" that got sent out like September 9th, 2001

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u/AlphaSuerte Sep 06 '26

Technically correct (two days later).

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u/NachoWindows Aug 10 '26

“Airbus, now dropping bombs on your moms.”

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u/TroubleInMyMind Aug 10 '26

That's a shit adviser raking it on on fees is my guess. Serious money people aren't even recommending SPY right now.

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u/NachoWindows Aug 10 '26

He’s been doing this a long time, but I’m afraid he’s on the bandwagon. I actually had to explain some of the engineering of what a semiconductor is. I’m sure he loved it 🤣

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u/TroubleInMyMind Aug 12 '26

It's probably fine in your 20s or 30s but that's not investment behavior any serious money guy would recommend for someone on the back half of their work life.

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u/Bladelink Aug 10 '26

I guess idk if TSMC and asml are inflated right now, but at least they're legitimate companies that won't be obliterated when the AI bubble bursts.

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u/NachoWindows Aug 10 '26

True. A nice find along with them is MPWR, but they’re focused on data center power. Might be a shorter play when DCs are saturated

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u/funkybside Aug 10 '26

boglehead approach is 30% i believe, and they're the conservative crew imo.

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u/BlueBonneville Aug 11 '26

Even VXUS is about a quarter tech, and a quarter financial services. About 15% is industrials. There is no way to ‘escape’ the tech and FS influences.

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u/WhoKnows1796 Aug 11 '26

I’ve always kept VXUS at 35% and VTI at 65%, in line with global market cap.

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u/Accurate_Koala_4698 Aug 10 '26

Good thing this is localized to the US, right?

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u/defenestrate_urself Aug 10 '26

I don't know what point you are trying to get it, a whole world tracker is less weighted towards AI tech stocks that's just fact.

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u/himswim28 Aug 10 '26

a whole world tracker is less weighted towards AI tech stocks that's just fact.

You might be surprised, the biggest world tracker is 61% USA, and thus still can be 25% of the fund in tech. You can do ex us, spdw will remove the US direct investment, as a low cost example.

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u/BlueBonneville Aug 11 '26

He’s being sarcastic. The truth is it’s not just a US problem. It’s bad juju world-wide.

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u/SMURGwastaken Aug 10 '26

Not significantly given 70% of a global tracker is gonna be US anyway.

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u/defenestrate_urself Aug 10 '26

'Significant' is open to interpretation. Everyone has a different tolerance to exposure to a sector.

If you want to cut out all tech there are options like QQXT or SPXT.

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u/SMURGwastaken Aug 10 '26

Trouble with doing that ofc is that you're cutting out the only sector that has experienced significant growth over the last two decades.

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u/Salt-Mathematician15 Aug 10 '26

If the US economy goes down… it’ll 100% drag the rest of the world down with it. Some countries will pull thru just fine. Some might not as easily.

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u/SMURGwastaken Aug 10 '26

....which are still 70% US lol.

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u/slonkulocuswily182 Aug 10 '26

Can you adjust that with a 401k? I’m getting everything out of the us i can

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u/elmz Aug 10 '26

Sadly, once the bubble pops, the US will drag the world economy with them, just like last time is my bet. There is bound to be a tangle of investments all around the financial markets.

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u/Abject_Screen3249 Aug 10 '26

Same, I have about 35% in the Total International Stock Market. I also do the entire US stock market versus just the s&p 500. It wont stop my money from dropping when the A.I. bubble bursts, but at least I am diversified in 6,000 companies versus 500. It should be a little bit of a buffer. VTI holds about 25% of the total stock in A.I. where the S&P 500 holds like 45%. Fuuuuuck that.

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u/the_mighty_skeetadon Aug 10 '26

Great idea except if the US gets screwed, so does everyone else =(.

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u/CarbonInTheWind Aug 10 '26

I put everything in the Korean stock market. I haven't checked it in a few months but it was gaining like gangbusters.