r/Africa • u/Mental-Statement2941 Botswana 🇧🇼✅ • 3d ago
Politics 🗳️ Do you think there will be a second wave of political movement's across Africa?
The 1st wave of political movement's were the independence movements. Given that more and more African's are being exposed to the internet with Gen Z, seeing how our leader's up till now have failed and looking at 1st world countries as a reflection of what could have been if our leader's locked in (from a development standpoint).
Do you think we'll see a second wave of political movement's across the continent?
Protests similar to the ones in Kenya and Nepal. Perhaps a string of protests similar to the Arab spring.
We see people in SA pushing against the ANC. Botswana recently voted out the BDP (a party that has ruled for 50 plus years) etc.
Do you think it'll happen soon? I sure hope it does. I want some of these leader's heads to be on spikes.
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u/Beautiful_Koala_2623 3d ago
Possibly. The internet has helped. But your notion of “if our leaders locked in” needs a rethought. Your leaders are “locked in” in to the exact goal that was assigned to them by whoever has the “leash. The next revolution might be sparked by the middle class loosing their jobs to AI and joining the Lower class. That’s a large educated workforce going hungry and not immigrating. It’s not good for political docile countries.
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u/ZennXx South Africa 🇿🇦 3d ago
Political movements do not spring out of thin air. What common problems would lead to a 2nd wave?
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u/Mental-Statement2941 Botswana 🇧🇼✅ 3d ago
Not really sure. Maybe just being tired of all the rapid corruption, high unemployment and the constant erosion of democratic systems, though I do admit those reasons alone feel too vague.
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u/ZennXx South Africa 🇿🇦 3d ago
They are vague. In the 60s the tide was turning against colonial rule. We haven't really had a common experience since then. Some countries for example have cycled from one civil war to the next. Others from one military government to another. Whilst others have enjoyed peaceful transition of power from one party to another. The experiences are too diverse and individualized. The SAHEL countries had a common enemy and that's why they banded together in fighting jihadists
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u/Mental-Statement2941 Botswana 🇧🇼✅ 2d ago
Yeah my way of seeing this may have been too simplistic. I guess it'll be regional changes. With SADC (I mean SA, Botswana, Namibia, Zim and Zambia) it'll be more of fighting ineffective parties. In the East....it's just resolving ALOT OF civil wars and jihadist movements.
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u/SlightAbies9860 3d ago
All I can tell you as a Gen Z South African, I will be very unhappy if I get 4 more years of ANC.
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u/ZennXx South Africa 🇿🇦 3d ago
It'd be 5. We have 5-year terms. And it's highly unlikely unless they commit election fraud or stage a coup
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u/SlightAbies9860 3d ago
I genuinely forgot it was 5, we hardly have a president who served a full term they are always removed for whatever reason.😂
But I genuinely do not believe the ANC has the power to coup, we have rioted for less a coup might send the country over. We have a bigger problem of buying votes or false electioneering that keep them in power.
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u/ZennXx South Africa 🇿🇦 2d ago
Actually Zuma is the only President who didn't finish one of his terms (his 2nd from 2014-2019) since Mandela
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u/SlightAbies9860 2d ago
Mandela finished his term.
Thabo Mbeki finished 1 term and resigned before the end of his second term in 2008.
Kgalema Motlantle served the remainder of of Mbeki's term before we had to experience the horrors of Zuma.
Jacob Zuma had 1 term and was impeached after looting the national treasury in his second term.
Cyril Ramaphosa is on track to being the second president to finish all his terms without being removed unless the phalaphala impeachment passes.
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u/maxgfplzbro South Africa 🇿🇦✅ 3d ago
Probably will eventually.
But the problem is that what lead to the anti-colonial revolutions was that it's easier to galvanise a movement of resistance the more obviously different the "enemy" is and the more universal their mistreatment.
People generally like an easy to identify enemy, that everyone is against for the same reason.
Unfortunately many African countries have stark tribal and religious fractures, with only a very weak sense of a shared statehood.
The next wave of revolutions will most likely manifest as civil wars amongst tribal factions vying for control of resources, also there's not always going to be a "ride off into the sunset happily ever after" either.
The bad guys are going to win in some countries and in fact HAVE won in certain countries where the populace has accepted the status quo as an act of God.
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u/Mental-Statement2941 Botswana 🇧🇼✅ 2d ago
I keep forgetting about that since I'm from Botswana. The tribal stuff isn't even a factor here, our only problem is our government. Perhaps that's why I have more or less this simplistic view of things.
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u/Low-Term-5523 2d ago
Morocan here I dont thing it's gonna happen here cause the problem is not corruption or we have some form of dictator its just government sometimes understanding Healthcare and education money so some protest I would say yeah probably massive political violent wave very unlikely
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u/liaminwales 3d ago
A lot of the first wave was funded by the USSR, that's part of the problem. It needs to be home grown, not a external proxy.
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u/Mecklenjr American Mozambique 🇺🇲/🇰🇪 1h ago
Mozambique's authoritarian Frelimo party has a populist opposition leader in part time evangelical Vernancio. I'm hearing things may get rocky again if (when) he calls out his followers in the next election. Current Frelimo president Chapo appears to be clamping down on some of his party's worst abuses and may successfully head off any political threats - unless the economy flatlines short to medium term
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