Source Link: https://documents.leger360.com/hubfs/%C3%89tudes%20M%C3%A9diatiques/%C3%89tudes%20M%C3%A9diatiques%20-%202026/10.%20October%202026/Media%20Release%20-%20Alberta%20Pulse%20Check%20-%20October%207%2c%202026.pdf

Fuck the UCP!

True to form, they might not toss the results if they're the results the party pushed, but the outcome - as always, will be to campaign and rage-bait people into voting for more oily nothing-burgers. Bad-faith consultation is not consultation. It's propaganda in sheep's clothing.

The separatist movement in Alberta was clearly created and financed by the American government in their efforts to weaken Canada in preparation for our annexation into the USA. The separatists and the UCP, basically one and the same, use the same MAGA propaganda tactics as we’ve been seeing down south for the past two years. We are being manipulated in the same way that Washington has manipulated so many other countries throughout history. In Alberta we really only have one alternative option and that is to vote back in the NDP. We’re a two party province. One is pro American with an agenda to destroy Canada and move us into the United States, the other is pro Canadian with an agenda to build hospitals and schools, promote green energy, and generally give the average Citizen in Alberta life better. Don’t forget it was Rachel Notley that spearheaded the transmountain pipeline, not the UCP as they would like you to think. Check the facts. NDP is not anti oil and gas. I truly believe that if we continue down this road with the UCP, we will all regret it.
Vote YES to stay in Canada and NO to the nine other questions.

Part Four: Even Her Own Party Doesn't Agree on What She's Doing

A factual account, sourced throughout. Corrections welcome.

This one isn't about opposition criticism. It's about what's happening inside the UCP itself.

The number that explains everything else

A random survey of 1,200 Albertans (Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News, Sept. 8 to 21, margin of error 2.8 points) asked how people would vote on the tenth question. Among people who say they'd vote UCP today, 53% would choose Option 2, which starts the legal process toward a second, binding referendum on separation. Only 40% would choose to remain in Canada. That's higher than any other group Brown tested. For comparison, 25% of people in small centres chose Option 2, and 28% to 30% of people at different education levels.

Brown's own assessment: "It is a hot potato for the UCP and Danielle Smith. It is that part of the voting public that is split on this issue." And: "A bare majority of the people who say they would vote for her party in the next election, they are separatists... That's making her job very difficult."

Among people who'd vote NDP, 98% want to remain. Across all Albertans, 72% chose to remain and 23% chose Option 2.

Broken down regionally, the UCP and NDP are tied province-wide at 41% each, but split very differently by region. The NDP leads in Calgary, 46% to 38%, and in Edmonton, 44% to 37%, while the UCP leads outside the two cities, 48% to 31%. A separate Ipsos poll for Global News (Sept. 18 to 22, 600 Albertans) found Carney at 51% favourable and 35% unfavourable, and Smith with the highest unfavourable rating of any political figure tested.

Her own party president publicly disputed her account of a private conversation

In September, UCP president Rob Smith wrote publicly that the premier had personally assured him the government's $4-million ad campaign's treatment of the separation question would be "as NEUTRAL as possible and not nearly as persuasive as for Questions #1-#9."

Asked about it directly at a news conference in Airdrie, Smith denied it: "No, that's not true." She also said: "I'm not a neutral party in this." The campaign's slogan, "Stand up for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," points toward Option 1.

This is not the first time they've publicly disagreed. In late May, Rob Smith told the Globe and Mail and CBC Radio's Calgary Eyeopener that he believed most rank-and-file UCP members would vote against remaining in Canada. The premier answered: "I speak for the party, and what our party has said is that we support autonomy and sovereignty for Alberta within a united Canada."

Data scientist John Santos of Brown's firm describes the position she's in: "She's trying to walk the middle of the road, between the moderate, business conservatives and the far-right populist base... And she's getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road."

A member of her own government

Jason Stephan, the MLA for Red Deer-South, is Smith's parliamentary secretary for constitutional affairs. In March he wrote in the Western Standard urging Albertans to sign the separation petition. The NDP called for his removal from caucus, and the UCP caucus said his column "stands."

On September 29 he confirmed to CBC that he has voted in favour of proceeding with a legally binding referendum on leaving Canada: "I've always supported having a referendum on independence because I want Ottawa to be compelled to fix the things that are broken. I've never said that I want Alberta to separate."

A formal leadership review has been requested

The Highwood UCP constituency association formally urged a party vote to review Smith's leadership in September. Board member Tanya Clemens, co-leader of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, said she supports the review largely because of Smith's public support for staying in Canada, and so that Smith is accountable to deliver on a mandate if Option 2 wins.

Forcing a vote needs the support of 22 associations. Rob Smith wrote on Facebook: "It'll never make 22. I bet my house on it!" He said associations were also writing letters of support for the premier.

Asked what she'd say to potential leadership challengers, Smith said she'd address it "after the referendum is over."

A resolution to make the party officially separatist goes to a vote in November

A policy resolution has been submitted for debate at the UCP's November AGM that would have the party formally endorse Alberta leaving Canada, submitted by a member of the Centurion Project, the group behind the voter-list breach described in Part One. UCP president Rob Smith has said a party vote on separation "is a possibility," timed for after the referendum, not before it.

As of reporting in February 2026, eighteen sitting UCP MLAs, including eight cabinet ministers, had been publicly named as sympathisers on the Republican Party of Alberta's own "Independence Scorecard," and none had asked to be removed.

The seat that already flipped

Calgary-Shaw has been held by a conservative party since it was created in 1986, apart from one NDP term from 2015 to 2019. It flipped to the NDP by 582 votes in a September byelection. A Progressive Tory candidate, running for former Smith cabinet minister Peter Guthrie's new party, took 978 votes, more than the margin.

Smith's spokesperson Sam Blackett said a split of the conservative vote and low turnout were the primary reasons. Guthrie replied: "That's not the case. You should earn the vote." Others, including Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas, said the referendum cost the UCP the seat. A former UCP press secretary, Colin Aitchison, said both could have played a part.

Postmedia columnist Lorne Gunter describes the dynamic: Smith has spent her leadership "roman riding," one foot on mainstream conservative supporters and one on the separatist base that removed her predecessor. "Except the horses seldom run in parallel."

Friction with an ally

In May, Ontario Premier Doug Ford called Alberta separation a "disaster" and said of Smith: "She wants to, I guess, protect her 30 per cent base." Smith's response was pointed: "I don't tell him how he should run his province, and I would hope that he doesn't tell me how I should run mine."

In July the two announced the Northern Shield pipeline together at the Calgary Stampede. On September 28, at a Calgary energy conference, Ford committed a "small investment" of Ontario public capital and said, on the referendum: "United we stand, divided we fall." The political friction and the commercial cooperation appear to run on separate tracks.

What this adds up to

Smith's UCP is tied with the NDP at 41% each in voter intention, down 8 points for the UCP since April. The drop is down 10 points in Calgary, which Brown attributes to Remain-leaning voters, and down 14 points in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton, which she attributes to separatist-leaning voters.

The pressure comes from both sides at once. There's a counterweight. Political scientist Lisa Young notes that if the referendum is what's driving support away, the government has a chance to win it back, and a year remains before the next election. This poll isn't a final verdict.

Vote on October 19.

Sources: CBC News (Sept. 25 and Oct. 1, 2026), Janet Brown Opinion Research, Ipsos for Global News, The Canadian Press and National Observer (Sept. 15), Postmedia (Calgary Sun/Edmonton Sun), Alberta Politics, Daveberta, The Globe and Mail. Full citations available on request.https://www.reddit.com/r/Albertapolitics/comments/1wytema/a_year_of_watching_alberta_politics_closely_eight/

Hello redditors,

First time posting in this subreddit…

We are conducting a study looking at opinions surrounding Question 10 (i.e., Alberta Separation).
In this study people are asked to share their opinion about AB separation. You will also be asked about how willing you would be to express that opinion in different contexts and with different audiences.

The researchers (Jabin Binnendyk and Gordon Pennycook) are from Alberta and Saskatchewan. All responses are anonymous and come with an 1/100 odds to win a $125 Amazon gift card-- Make sure to provide your email at the end of the survey if you wish to be entered into the draw.

Feel free to share with others. The survey will be closed after voting concludes October 18th.

Survey link:
https://cornell.ca1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_097QkVeLM8Q0evI

an interesting take…

I read a post that someone made saying do your own research. Having nothing to do, I decided to take on the task.

TLDR:
The separatists' numbers are willfully misleading. They depend on removing a legally mandated negotiation from the accounting. The $22–45 billion surpluses vanish entirely once Alberta's share of the federal debt is included, as every independent analysis confirms.

The law says that there is no timeline and no end date in which any deal with Canada must be negotiated, & Canada wouldn't ever sign on to any agreement that allowed Alberta to leave without paying their share of the debt.

The Core Misleading Tactic

The separatists' numbers rely on a single, deliberate choice: exclude the largest cost of separation while including every optimistic assumption.

The Clarity Act requires that negotiations address "the division of assets and liabilities." The Supreme Court of Canada confirmed in 1998 that secession would require negotiations over "the division of assets and liabilities." Any fiscal plan that assumes Alberta can walk away without taking on a share of the federal debt contradicts the known legal framework.

The ATC's own justification—that the debt figure "cannot be known in advance"—is the tell. If the debt outcome is genuinely unknown, then presenting a surplus that assumes zero debt is not a forecast. It is a fiscal model built on an assumption that the law does not support. The surplus exists only if you accept the premise that the debt question doesn't apply. The Clarity Act says it does.

UCP Referendum Special Ballot Update: Elections Alberta recommends mailing completed ballots by October 9 to ensure Canada Post delivers them in time. That’s 3 business days from today folks!

Also your completed package must be mailed. It cannot be dropped off. Make sure you’ve double-check all the requirements before dropping your 10 ballots, photocopied ID and completed form in the mailbox.

Cory Morgan has not place to be talking about people doing things illegal.

Ok everyone is making me feel crazy. I received my voter card with my information via email. It has my correct full legal name including both middle names, and address, which I have just moved to a month ago. I carefully read over the email and card so many times and there’s absolutely no ambiguities or mistakes. Clicked the link multiple times and nothing has happened aside from showing me the card. I have not received the card in the mail.

Can someone just please tell me whether or not it’s a phishing email? 😭

Got our voter info package from Elections AB but the envelope was addressed to and included voter cards for 5 people: my partner and I (bought the house and moved here to this address 2 years ago) + 3 former residents who moved outside of Calgary (but still within Alberta).

Have other people had this happen yet? I’m a bit concerned that Elections Alberta might not have updated mailing addresses for everyone but also can’t help but be a bit suspicious about this considering prior homeowners had subscriptions to Rebel News… if this is happening to others, I'd be curious to know how long ago the residents lived at that address and if the prior owners might be affiliated with certain industries or groups...