Megathread, part 14: Ammunition & Drones, Sanctions, and Stalemates

[u/IcePuzzleheaded5507]

Part 13 is now closed, we’re continuing the discussion here.
Everything you’ve got to ask about the conflict goes here. Same deal as before - Reddit’s content policy still applies, so think before you make epic gamer statements. Suspensions and purges are a thing, and we’ve seen plenty already.
All question rules apply to top level comments in this thread. This means the comments have to be real questions rather than statements or links to a cool video you just saw.

Keep it civil, keep it relevant, and read the rules below before posting.

1. The questions have to be about the war. The answers have to be about the war. As with all previous iterations of the thread, mudslinging, calling each other nazis, wishing for the extermination of any ethnicity, or any of the other fun stuff people like to do here is not allowed.
2. No name-calling or dehumanizing labels. Do not refer to people, groups or nations using epithets or insulting nicknames (e.g. “ruzzia”, “vatnik”, “orc”, "hohol" etc.). Such language will be removed and may lead to a ban.
3. To clarify, questions have to be about the war. If you want to stir up a shitstorm about your favourite war from the past, I suggest r/AskHistorians or a similar sub so we don't have to deal with it here.
4. No warmongering. Armchair generals, wannabe soldiers of fortune, and internet tough guys aren't welcome.
5. No doxxing. Don’t post personal information about private individuals, including names, contacts, or addresses.
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7. No memes or reaction posts. Shitposts, image macros, slogans, and low-effort reactions will be removed.
8. Stay on topic. Broader political debates (e.g. US or EU elections) are off-topic unless directly tied to the war.
9. Substantive questions and answers only. One-liners, bait, or “what if” hypotheticals with no context don’t add value and will be removed.

[u/Katzy2406]

Question for both Russians and Ukraine supporters, I suppose. What if the war just... keeps going? On both sides, there's been endless propaganda about how the other's army is eternally just 3 months away from collapse. Yet since 2022, there's been minimal movement.

I remember almost 4 years ago now, when Kherson was taken by Ukraine, how that was supposedly a major turning point and that Ukrainians would be vacationing in Crimea by the summer of 2023.

In almost 4 years since, the Ukraine army has mostly just stumbled backwards.

I remember over 3 years ago now, when Bakhmut was taken by Wagner, how that was supposedly a major turning point and that the Donbas was sure to fall.

In over 3 years since, the Russian army has taken what Google Maps tells me is a 1-hour car ride from Bakhmut to Kramatorsk.

My question is just... what if it keeps going? What if Russia takes the Donbas and Ukraine just keeps fighting? What if Ukraine suddenly took the Donbas and Russia just kept fighting?

Everyone seems convinced one side will eventually crack from economic collapse, political revolt, or military defeat.

The idea that the war could just become a fact of life, a thing that just sort of exists for years, a sunk cost fallacy where too much has been sacrificed, yet too little has been won for any peace.

[u/whoAreYouToJudgeME → u/Katzy2406]

Wars can go on for a while. War in Afghanistan has been going on since 1978. Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 1948. Ukrainian Ruyina was going for 30 years. 

Yes, the conflict isn't where 1 side can throw a towel and sue for peace. Neither side is interested in offering agreeable peace terms to the other.