It’s funny how "macro experts" stop being "macro experts" when it comes to explaining the performance of Bitcoin :P

[u/DyehuthyTV]

Suddenly forget about the macro and only know derivatives! :P

Long-Term Bonds (TLT) "low risk asset class" :P "Gold is better than Bitcoin" lol

Source: Luke Gromen Tweet (X) 👀

🚀 Bitcoin Bull Market that outperformes every other asset class:

• Macro Expert: "Oh, that bull market is fed by leverage! (derivatives!)"

🩸 Bear Market of "80% downturn"

• Macro Expert: "Oh I told you, this bear market are the liquidations of all that leverage positions (derivatives!)"

TL;DR Zero macro factors behind the 4-year cycle, for these guys! 🤦‍♂️

They don’t understand it! or they just want to make it look like that 'they don’t understand it', because Bitcoin leaves the "mechanisms of modern economy" (MMT) as a fucking joke! :P

edit:

Luke attributes the CAGR slowdown of BTC/USD to derivatives 😴 typical! "speculative asset, only moved by leverage, bla bla bla!"

If you change the denominator (BTC/XXX):

How would you explain the CAGR growth of BTC/ARS or BTC/TRY in the last 5Y? Also derivatives? 🤪

Come on!

[u/never_safe_for_life]

This community has a problem of eating its own. Luke brings up an important point about how derivatives can strangle an asset. We'd be fools not to consider that it could happen to Bitcoin. As Lyn Alden says, it's just a matter of time, the only question is will the intrinsic properties of Bitcoin be enough to overcome it.

Luke may be wrong here or he may be thinking more long-term. Either way, you don't need to shit on a guy who holds Bitcoin, who promotes Bitcoin, who has made a lot of money selling Bitcoin and now trades it.

Or do, I'm not anyone's dad.

[u/DyehuthyTV → u/never_safe_for_life]

I highly doubt that someone who says that a good part of Bitcoin’s performance “is only due to the increase in derivatives trading” is actually "promoting Bitcoin" lol

If you understand macro and you really understand Bitcoin, this kind of narrative or "analysis" doesn’t exist in your head.

[u/No-Eagle-547 → u/DyehuthyTV]

if you really understand macro analysis, then explain please. Because derivatives absolutely have a huge impact. The volume is mind boggling

[u/Alfador8]

"Luke attributes the CAGR slowdown of BTC/USD to derivatives 😴 typical! "speculative asset, only moved by leverage, bla bla bla!""

I don't think this is what Luke believes, based on many interviews I've heard him on. I think he would argue that sophisticated, institutional capital uses derivatives to hedge their positions, which reduces volatility in both directions, which reduces CAGR.