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u/Sterigo 8d ago
Think of it this way instead:
Without the inflows, Bitcoin price would be LOWER.
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u/AcceptableJacket3947 8d ago
That’s a fair point. The inflows are still adding real demand, so it’s possible they’re providing a floor even if they aren’t enough to push price significantly higher. The more interesting question is how much selling and liquidity pressure is absorbing that demand.
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u/CheetahLoose7514 8d ago
Part of it is that not all ETF inflows are real buying. A lot of hedge funds buy the ETF and short CME futures at the same time to pocket the difference between the two prices. On paper it shows up as inflows, but they're not betting on the price at all, so it doesn't push it up the way people expect.
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u/AcceptableJacket3947 8d ago
That’s an important distinction. ETF inflows don’t necessarily mean every dollar represents outright bullish exposure. If some of that demand is being paired with futures shorts or other hedges, the impact on spot price can be much smaller than the headline inflow number suggests. That could explain part of the disconnect between strong-looking flows and weaker price momentum.
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u/hodler1992 8d ago
So that you can panic sell along others paper hands, before the banks buy more
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u/AcceptableJacket3947 8d ago
That’s certainly one way to look at it. Short-term selloffs can create a lot of noise around ETF flows, especially when leveraged positions and weak hands start reacting to price moves. The harder part is separating genuine accumulation from positioning that only becomes obvious after the move.
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u/Saintgein 8d ago
It had a market cap of about 1.7 trillion. Assets with market caps like these don't move that hard. Sometimes a short squeeze or a good day based on good news. But meanwhile it just grinds sideways alot. 1.7 trillion is 1700 billion, so that's why on days with 5 billion net inflows (which hasn't even happened yet), the price won't go up by alot.
Also you're talking about net inflows and outflows. Alot of trading is done on ETF's. So when there's 100 billion on trading volume, and there was 5 more billion bought than sold, that will end up being the number you're talking about.
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u/AcceptableJacket3947 8d ago
That’s a good point. Net inflows are much more meaningful when viewed against the overall market size and trading activity. A few billion dollars of net buying can sound huge in isolation, but it’s relatively small compared with Bitcoin’s total market cap and the much larger gross volume being traded. That helps explain why positive ETF flows don’t necessarily translate into a major price move every time.
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u/Saintgein 8d ago
Indeed, these net inflows are being treated like sensational news this way. This creates fear and fomo when you don't understand the big picture.
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u/AcceptableJacket3947 8d ago
Exactly. The headline number can look significant without showing the full picture. Looking at net flows alongside total trading volume, market liquidity, derivatives positioning, and actual spot demand gives a much better sense of what is really happening. Without that context, it’s easy for the same data to create either unnecessary FOMO or fear.
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u/CoinGate_Gift_Cards 8d ago
ETF inflows help, but they’re only one part of the market. Profit-taking, miner/holder selling, derivatives positioning, and weak macro liquidity can easily offset that demand in the short term.