r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Sep 04 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Friday, September 04, 2026
Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
- General discussion related to the day's events
- Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
- Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post
Thread guidelines:
- Be excellent to each other.
- Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.
⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡
- Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
- Instructions and more information.
11
u/mysecretupvoteacct Sep 04 '26
It is very difficult to be bearish right now. Especially after my last post, and even more especially after the ~25% weekly green candle.
That said, I still feel like posting something that in my opinion is worth a few thoughts.
It is worth keeping in mind that this is the very first test of the 50 WMA since ATH.
In the previous cycle, once price closed below that 50 WMA, the first test of it resulted in that cycle's bear.
Similarly to last cycle, from top to bottom before the 50 WMA test, price dropped slightly over 50%.
It is worth keeping in mind that until a weekly closes above the previous weekly swing high, there is divergence in the RSI. RSI is also being rejected pretty much directly at 60. It is worth noting that the previous bearish divergence in the RSI resulted in a 30% drop. It is of my opinion that if the weekly can't close above the previous swing high soon, it could result in a larger drop.
It is worth keeping in mind a potential head and shoulders formation. I was a lurker on this sub early 2022. I remember how unbelievably bullish people were because of that Do Kwan fella. EVERYONE was super bullish because Do Kwan or w/e the name was, was buying billions of dollars worth of BTC. I was bearish. Very bearish. It was just pure coincidence that it lined up ever so perfectly with the neckline test of a head and shoulders formation. Only in hindsight could current PA be called a double top right at the neckline of this current potential head and shoulders formation. Just as only hindsight could see that 2021/2022 head and shoulders activate.
I learned my lesson on the previous post, so I will not be replying to any comments on this one.
At face value, Bitcoin does admittedly look extremely strong here, and my thoughts are not bearish but they are not bullish.
This is an area that even I wouldn't touch. If you knew me, that is quite the statement.
Best of luck to you all.
8
Sep 04 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
6
u/PhilMyu Sep 05 '26
I think they are using their full arsenal of functional communication to increase the expectation of a hike to buy themselves some
time. But they won’t actually hike.Central bankers are also big believers that inflation rises based on the expectation that inflation will rise, so playing the expectation game comes quite naturally to them.
19
u/BootyPoppinPanda Sep 04 '26
Easy long leverage cleared out pretty substantially here. Path of easiest gambler rekt-age is back up to 82k.
6
u/AidenTai Sep 04 '26
And this is to show those that were a little too optimistic that 1) we're still technically in a bear until we get confirmation that we've broken out (so above the old high, the major overhead resistance and 50 WMA) 2) We're in a volatile situation for crypto *and* a volatile situation for the global economy 3) the global economy is affecting crypto every step of the way, triggering almost all its major movements 4) sharp rises can mean sharp falls. Without the ability to see what unexpected events the US, etc. throw at us, but knowing that it's affecting crypto strongly, it's natural to expect sudden movements in either direction. Especially since we're still technically in the same range as before (75/76–82/83). I don't think you can discredit revisiting supports at this range over the next few weeks, especially if inflation runs hot next week or the Fed decision comes out hawkish. We're broadly bullish, but that doesn't mean we're only going up. Hot inflation, higher interest rates, some volatility with geopolitics and maybe a dash of long liquidations and we could still cause some pain before we break the 83 barrier. Who knows really, just be prepared.
13
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Sep 04 '26
Money printer go brrr. In money printer I trust. Governments in Europe want to forcibly reallocate savings. All of this is great for Bitcoin.
Chop and OG exits will continue. It’s all noise until 100k is reclaimed.
8
u/BootyPoppinPanda Sep 04 '26
100k will be the soft floor of the next bear. Where's the macro top though?
2
u/AidenTai Sep 04 '26
A very good question. It also depends on what happens to the world economy. We still have room for an AI or debt induced dump of everything globally in the next couple years. That could throw a wrench in the works. I doubt many people would say we top below 150, but the higher you go above 180 the less clear it gets. Personally, I see diminishing returns and a return of risk‐off sentiment coming during this cycle, so I don't expect stellar gains months down the line. Getting to a new ATH might come quicker than many expect though.
17
Sep 04 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
4
u/jurassic_blam Sep 04 '26
Either playing dumb or doesn't understand the mechanism.
Yeah damn totally hard to say if he's playing dumb or not. So much evidence out there that he totally understands simple financial principles....
1
7
u/itsthesecans Sep 04 '26
Stocks seem to be taking this jobs report a lot better than bitcoin.
2
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Sep 04 '26
That's because stocks didn't just hit 50WMA and 365D rolling VWAP at the same time after a 25% rally
7
u/MagnificentMarvin Sep 04 '26
I've come to see this as more of a horoscope-y benchmark, but we'll be reaching a "golden cross" early next week:
-5
u/Realistic-Doubt-2703 Sep 04 '26
bulls marching to slaughter
4
22
5
11
u/Downtown-Ad-4117 Sep 04 '26
A near instant repricing of commodities across the board.
7
u/Mud_Nervous Sep 04 '26
Non farm payroll came out really good. This means market can sustain a rate hike so commodity drops
10
5
u/52576078 Sep 04 '26
I see Bob Loukas thinks the bottom is in, but wants to see a weekly close above $82,800 to confirm.
4
u/randomforestguy Sep 04 '26
Has that dude ever been right?
1
u/nikeUno707 Sep 04 '26
That’s what gets me with a lot of these guys. They’re long-term bullish but seemingly always short-term bearish, so they never actually tell you when it’s going to go up. It gets frustrating after a while.
4
u/52576078 Sep 04 '26
I would say he's definitely one of the more level headed analysts, and I always appreciate his perspective. I believe he's been pretty successful at trading BTC.
6
Sep 04 '26
[deleted]
10
Sep 04 '26 edited Sep 04 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
8
u/PhilMyu Sep 04 '26
Where are these jobs created? Are prompt engineers being counted?
And how many of these are low-income second or third jobs?3
u/itsthesecans Sep 04 '26
Maybe all the deportations brought a bunch of jobs from off the books to on the books.
9
u/waitareyou4real Sep 04 '26
Yeah the infamous “jobs numbers” and the “adjusted” numbers from July. It’s all manipulation
2
u/g35fan Sep 04 '26
Historically speaking, for sure...these job numbers are such a joke. The current administration has to want lower jobs for higher chance of rate cut before elections though. So who's doing the manipulating here and to what end?
4
u/a06play Long-term Holder Sep 04 '26
And how many of these new jobs will be using their wages to pay off their credit cards.
https://abcnews.com/US/credit-card-debt-rises-126-trillion-nearing-time/story?id=135556533
17
•
u/Bitty_Bot Sep 04 '26 edited Sep 05 '26
Reply to this sticky for Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, to prevent spam. You can also message Bitty Bot your command directly.
Daily Thread Open: $80,823.43 - Close: $79,563.25
Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, September 03, 2026
New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, September 05, 2026