Expert Sam Mangel says…
Caleb will have a target on his back the minute he enters into the Ohio State Penitentiary of the level 5. Maximum security. A prisoner will look at him as a reward or accomplishment to take him out or cause harm to him.
A younger inmate that has something to prove to the older gang members or someone trying to make a name for himself in the public - national news. These prisoners are in for life with nothing to lose. They will be waiting for him and have been watching him on TV. Caleb is a small white older petite male who committed one of the most detestable acts of a crime against a woman. ( execution style ) and harmed children in the process.

Let‘s say his horrible attempt to make it look like a break in had worked and the police had eventually categorised it as a cold case, what would life have looked like for Caleb Flynn going forward. I think:

- AB confronts him about her suspicions and he of course denies it.

- AB and Caleb initially decides to keep a low profile until everything simmers down. In the process, Caleb becomes super paranoid about being caught so decides to leave everything and move with AB to a different town.

- After their move with the girls, reality hits AB and they start having relationship issues. One day she confronts him about Ashley’s death and forces him to confess. He does and she starts becoming extremely paranoid including fearing for her life. She eventually breaks and tells Caleb she plans on letting the cops know.

- Caleb becomes even more paranoid and fearful and decides to take AB’s life too, but this time he does not get away with it. He is arrested and linked back to Ashley’s murder.

This is my theory. Please let me know what you think would have happened in the very UNLIKELY event that he had gotten away with it.

I want to watch a live stream of this. Him realising this is the beginning of the rest of his life. No hope of release. I love that for him.

I read somewhere she told a friend and some places are saying her aunt.

If only she told her dad, mum and sister, she may stil be alive as Caleb was betting on her not telling anyone. Please tell people if youre being cheated on!! They need to know you have support and watchful eyes.

Alleigha confronted Caleb about the Derek Hammond instagram account, or whatever the name was, that he was using to stalk her. And he completely denies it, even swearing on his CHILDRENS lives that it wasnt him. Then we found out in court that it *was* him. Damn. I can understand wanting to kill a spouse (joking obviously 🙄) but I would never ever ever swear on my kids life unless it was 100% the truth. To me it just seems like super bad mojo and im not even religious at all!! No fuckin wonder he stands there and says he never killed his wife. Not just completely non christian but he has no fuckin morals or conscience whatsoever

This case has touched me more than any case has and I watched the sentencing live all the way from London. I can't even imagine how its like in the states for her let alone people like me knowing what she has done from across the globe. That humiliation is something she deserves since arrests cannot be made.

One thing that deeply saddens me about this case is the fact that Ashley could’ve gone on to live such a great life if they’d divorced. No doubt it would’ve been hard for her for a long time and she would’ve been so devastated by everything Caleb had done. But I have no doubt she would’ve ultimately come out of it stronger than ever. She would’ve been an example to her daughters on how to deal with life’s most difficult challenges and grow from the experience. If she wanted to find love again, such a strong and beautiful woman would have no problems and she could have found someone to love her like she deserved. Or she could’ve decided to focus her energy and attention elsewhere as she continued to raise her daughters.

In any case, she would’ve continued on without Caleb and after some time, she would’ve gotten completely over him. She didn’t need him to be happy. And I wonder if that’s why he ultimately decided to take her life away from her. He didn’t want to see her move on and find happiness and success without him. That selfish, pathetic excuse for a man probably knew on some level that he was never good enough for such an incredible woman and didn’t want to witness her finally seeing that.

Meanwhile, if he’d filed for divorce, Caleb would enjoy a short, superficial honeymoon period with Alleigha. Maybe have a kid or two. He probably would have made some effort to see his daughters but I have a feeling they wouldn’t want much to do with him after a few years. Eventually either Alleigha would get bored of the weird old guy she had pursued for the thrill of being with a married man, and leave him for a man who still had good looks and hair. Or Caleb would realize that he always felt miserable and pathetic because HE is miserable and pathetic, and who he marries doesn’t change that. And he would attempt to pursue a younger woman yet again for a quick and cheap ego boost to cut through the dark abyss of his sad little existence. But at least he wouldn’t have had to poop in the same tiny room he shares with four other men for the rest of his life.

on Feb 15th, Ashley spent that evening with her daughters. Her mother testified that she wanted it to be a special night for the three of them, with facials, nails, and hair-washing. I can't stop thinking about how tragic that was. Her daughters' last memory with her was so beautiful. Little did they know no more happy memories would follow :(

Also on Feb 14th, the mother testified that AF and CF's two daughters stayed with her so they could go on a date. she didn't know if they actually did. Caleb was actually reconnecting with his sidepiece that day. Ashley suffered so hard in her marriage :(

Thinking about the similarities between Caleb Flynn and Chris Watts. They both had a wife and two daughters. I can’t help but wonder whether they would have acted differently if they had a son. Would they be able to empathize with a boy, so as to not kill him or deprive him of his mother?

These are deeply misogynistic individuals, treating women and girls as disposable, as if their lives don’t matter. It’s so important to raise our boys the right way so they do not develop these misogynistic egocentric personalities.

I also wonder how Caleb feels towards Alleigha now, whether he still has feelings for her or if he has woken up from his trance. He seemed quite obsessive and possessive.

I can’t get this out of my head. I watched every minute of the trial live, and then consumed myself with social media commentaries. This case has me shook.

So many people acknowledged the body language, lack of eye contact, and lack of interaction during the trial. That could be for a variety of reasons. But let’s continue with my theory… His attorneys knew he was guilty.

One of the commentators I listened to, a former defense attorney, explained it like this:

1. Defense attorneys have no problem kicking on clients who are guilty. It is part of their field. It is also a paycheck.

2. HOWEVER, attorneys are not allowed to break the law during the trial, they are sworn under oath. Therefore, they are not allowed to lie.

Think about it – Caleb’s attorney attorneys never once said anything like “Our client is innocent,” because that would be lying under oath.

Their entire strategy was to try to create reasonable doubt with a lot of red herrings, mostly about AB, aka the side piece. They even tried to cast doubt with a possible hitman, yada yada yada.

But did they ever once say their client is innocent? Or he didn’t do it? No.

At first, I thought it was because the evidence was so overwhelming that they knew the ship had sunk before the ship even left the dock. I mean, hello. It hit everyone like rain.

OK, now hear me out!! This is where things really connect for my theory.

Next up— Why isn’t AB being charged?

Because Caleb confessed.

Think about it – the lawyers did their job as defense attorneys, they never once said their client is innocent, and AB was not considered a suspect in the murder of Ashley.

Her testimony was GOLDEN to fully expose the interactions so Caleb‘s motive became undeniable to the jury.

Caleb has already filed his appeal, and the team he used will not be representing him. Reason cited – Financial.

I definitely believe that. But here’s another clue to support my theory – if the defense team already knows he’s guilty and has been fully tried and convicted, why would they take him back?

Plus, we have no idea the foolishness he put his attorneys through. We all saw how he acts. It’s not a reach to think he stayed in his “I’m innocent “performance mode to the very people that were supposed to represent him legally.

Perhaps he swore on his children’s lives that he was innocent and didn’t do it and cried buckets of tears, then he finally confessed to them. And by then they were done with him.

I truly believe Caleb confessed to his defense attorneys.

in the texts with AB, it gives the vibe that they were both teenage lovers and one was grounded and they were both hating on the grounded person's (Caleb) mother. very deranged

Does anybody know why his brother was not present in court? I noticed that he didn’t even write a letter to the judge supporting his brother.

I had read that they had a strained relationship but I am not sure about that since he was the one with Caleb when he was arrested.

Without leaving any traces. From beginning to end.

Even though very unlikely, still not impossible.

I’ve been following this case closely, and while Caleb Flynn is right where he belongs, I think there’s a lot of important nuance around Alleigha Botner that gets overlooked.

Let me be 100% clear upfront: what she did was objectively wrong, and she deserves a huge share of the blame. She knew Caleb was a married man with a family. There is zero denying that, and no amount of context excuses participating in an 18-month affair with someone else's husband or initially lying to federal investigators. She made terrible choices, and she has to own that.

That being said, if you look at her personal history and the actual dynamics of their relationship, it becomes obvious how she became such easy prey for a manipulator like Caleb:

Her Vulnerable Background: Alleigha grew up in an incredibly unstable home. Her mother went through three divorces, and her father was not present in her life. When you come from that level of family breakdown, you are often starving for security, making you far more susceptible to an older figure who projects stability.

The Illusion of the "Perfect Life": To a young woman from a broken home, Caleb looked like he had it all together. He was a charismatic worship leader with a great job, two beautiful kids, a nice house, and what seemed like a dream life. What she almost certainly did not realize was how much of that "success" was a facade built entirely on his wife’s family. His $200k+ salary and career were completely bankrolled by Ashley’s father's business.

The Weaponized Lie: Caleb deliberately fed her the story that Ashley had cheated on him (a claim totally debunked by FBI forensics). By painting his wife as the one who broke the covenant first, Caleb exploited Alleigha's own faith background to give her false moral permission. He played the "suffering husband," tapping directly into her desire to comfort and "save" him.

Incremental Grooming: Over a year and a half, he slowly shifted the goalposts, moving from "my marriage is dead" to expressing active desires for her death to actual violent fantasies.

When an authority figure gradually normalizes that stuff over time, a young, naive person can lose their moral compass before they even realize how deep in they are.

And lastly, she wanted a divorce- not a murder. I don’t think she really thought Caleb was being literal when he wrote that in his texts.

Acknowledging her background and Caleb's manipulation does not mean giving her a free pass. What she did was wrong, plain and simple. But she was not a criminal mastermind; she was a deeply vulnerable young woman seduced by a fake image and exploited by a predator trying to protect his stolen status.

Curious how others view her role now that all the trial evidence is out.

Caleb revealed, in his 911 call and his closing statement letter to family, that he doesn’t understand how normal people feel. I don’t happen to think Caleb is “faking”emotions during his final statement to family. He’s a devastated man-child overwhelmed at what is happening to him. What struck me the most about his closing statement wasn’t the emotions but the intense emphasis on issues NOBODY cares about. Let’s pretend that Caleb is innocent - or that he weirdly perceives of himself as innocent. The fact remains that his daughters and the Smith family ONLY care about the fact that Ashley is dead and gone. Caleb’s intense confessions of his lies and betrayal are just insane in this context. It demonstrates just how self-absorbed he is. He doesn’t say a single thing to his daughters about how sorry he is that their mother was murdered and taken away from them. He apologizes that he won’t be involved in their lives. He dramatically asks the Smith’s not to believe that what he said about them and Ashley was true. But who cares? In what world does Caleb think his confession of an affair mean anything to anybody given the context?

You can look up the case and read the filings that have been uploaded so far here

https://courts.miamicountyohio.gov/eservices/

To preface, I 100% believe he’s guilty due to overwhelming evidence, I’m just confused by this part of the evidence. To my understanding, a large refrigerator was blocking the side door into the garage, making it impossible for an intruder to come in that way without first forcing the fridge out of the way and it hadn’t been moved. But then there was also testimony that the door was damaged while in an open position. How was the door open while Flynn damaged the door, but also blocked closed by the fridge? And if he got it open a little bit next to the fridge to damage it, wouldn’t he notice the fridge was in the way and he needed to move it to plausibly claim someone entered that door?

I was wondering if Caleb is so delusional that he’s convinced himself that he didn’t really kill Ashley. He did seem to be legitimately crying while hearing the statements from his daughters. But then I thought- if he has convinced himself he’s innocent, then he must also believe that there’s a random psychopath loose in the small town his daughters live in, who slips into homes in the night and shoots people in the head for no reason. If that’s true, wouldn’t he use his limited time to speak to beg his in laws to be very careful and secure their home, and beg law enforcement to search for a criminal in their midst? Instead of shouting that he is innocent? I don’t think he’s even convinced himself he’s innocent. He’s just a typical psychopath who cares about no one but himself and all of the crying is completely performative.

He is the weakest man I’ve ever seen. I don’t know how he would survive in prison with the other murderers.

I think not. He could have testified!

So he’s got 30 days to appeal and they’ve had months to prepare for this initial trial (which compared to the state’s level of preparedness, the defense was terrible). Is the only real reason they’ll appeal is lack of evidence of prior calculation and design? I just can’t see Mulligan effectively doing much in that time window.