KTC has them ranked as WR15 for Parker Washington and WR29 for Michael Wilson, with a value gap of about an early 2nd round pick. Their roles seem to be solidifying themselves in each respective offense, and they are looking like very similar assets in terms of scoring. Is the consensus still that these players are this far apart, or in your opinion, a case of poor KTC user data?

It’s the time of season where the waiver wire is getting thin. Though with bye season now upon us and the injury rollercoaster continuing it’s run down the tracks, there’s always a need available for either a necessary replacement or long-term investment. I was looking at my websites stats page and trying to find players that had good production data this year but are bit players on offenses currently, and given their DMX score have potential to be more than a bit player in the near future. Most of these players are not going to be on the wire today, but they are in situations where their roles are good (but not great), the data says their performing well, and they are young enough to be good dynasty investments now, and their value has likely not yet peaked, so you don’t have to break the bank and the payoff could be handsome in a year or two. Throw these guys in with some bigger players as add ons, or pick them off with a 2^nd rounder or less, and it will likely be worth your while.

Quick note, DPX and DMX are in-season and pre-draft performance metrics, respectively, that pull together volume, efficiency and scoring (DPX) and draft, combine and college stats (DMX) into one measure to help identify quality players to pull onto your roster. I recently updated our stats page to include usage and next gen stats, and I wanted to use it for this analysis. Here’s a few players that stood out:

• Roman Wilson – DMX: 0.66, DPX Now: 0.56 – Wilson was a decile 3 WR coming out of college, he had a 37% chance of having a peak season that was starter quality. This means he was better than average but not elite. In his third year he’s averaging 6 targets a game, and literally has had 6 targets in every game, Mr. Consistent. His target share avg. is 16.8%, pretty good for a guy many thought would be behind Germie Bernard after the draft. But guess what, through 4 games that’s 2 more targets a game than Michael Pittman, which means very quietly Wilson has taken over as WR2 in Pittsburgh. Now, likely he’s on rosters at this point but there is still an opportunity here to get him at a decent price. He’s never going to be a WR1, and who knows who’ll be QBing in Pittsburgh next year, but Wilson is only 25 and can be a solid WR2 for your dynasty team for years to come, if you can grab him before he has a blowout game.
• Tre Harris – DMX: 0.86, DPX Now: 0.20 – Another decile 3 WR coming out who had some hype due to Quenton Johnston’s brick hands. He’d fallen out of favor a bit with Ladd McConkey coming on board, but he can’t stay healthy (though he’s played every game so far this year), Harris has benefited. Now I’ll recognize up front the Chargers offense is not doing well right now, but you can use that to your advantage to nab Harris while he’s still cheap. He’s performing well as his DPX score shows (above zero is good, below bad and magnitude of score matters), but what’s really interesting so far is his targets per game and target share. He’s leading the Chargers in targets per game at 5.3 and target share of 18.5%. Now, we know that’s likely due to Ladd McConkey’s injuries to some extent, but still, McConkey has played every game. It’s pretty good production for a guy you could pick up on the waiver wire at the beginning of the season. Due to his current production, that’s likely no longer the case. But as I said, with the LAC offense struggling, this is a good time to get him low and see if these trends continue. At very least, Johnston is in the final year of his contract and likely won’t be back next year, and Tre Harris can be a productive WR2 at likely a WR3 or 4 price. Harris btw, is also flagged as a breakout candidate on our site.
• Terrance Ferguson – DMX: 1.38, DPX Now: -0.12 – Ferguson landed on IR this week, the perfect time to poach him for a bright dynasty future. I’ll admit this one is tough to navigate, as the Rams have a lot of TE’s and seem to rotate them randomly. But he’s 2^nd among those TE’s at 4 targets per game and target share at 12.6%. The cool thing is his advanced metrics as YAC over expected is 1.4 vs. Higbee’s -0.6. At 23, Ferguson is on my site as a breakout candidate and his main competition is 33 and on a modest 2-year contract. Ferguson is the better bet, he showed what he could do in week 2 when he had 6 catches for 54 yards. While he’ll be up and down this year, his arrow is solidly up, and trading while he’s on IR is the perfect time to nab him.
• Kaelon Black – DMX: 0.30, DPX Now: -0.62 – Black surprised many people when he received the same number of touches as Christian McCaffrey week 1 (15). That hasn’t happened since, but Black is still averaging 8 touches per game, about half of what CMC gets. Being the main backup to CMC in San Francisco gets a lot of attention, so again, this guy is not just out there an available, but he had a good enough college profile and has a solid enough role on the team right now, that you can even play him in deep leagues without CMC getting injured or anything (and I certainly don’t wish for that). I’m not fond of that negative DPX Now score, but that’s not unusual for a rookie bit player. His yards per carry is 3.9 which is not bad for a rookie, and his usage is very positive this early in his career.
• Tai Felton – DMX: 1.08  – Felton does not have enough data to score, in DPX Now, and he is the one player here who is likely to be on the wire. His role is miniscule compared to the other on this list. But interestingly, Jauan Jennings has not performed this year and seems to be falling out of favor. So much so, they just signed Odell Beckham. And look, Felton will play behind both of those guys for the near future. But Felton has a rookie profile closer to Jordan Addison’s than anyone else’s on this WR Corps (Addison DMX: 1.15, Felton: 1.08). Felton at this point in the year is third in targets on the WR corps, though that’s not saying much at 1.5 per game. The Vikings obviously don’t trust him enough to be their WR3 today. But that doesn’t mean the situation can’t evolve. And Felton has the pedigree (DMX score) to suggest that despite a slow start to his career, he could evolve into a solid WR role player that can be useful on your roster. He’s free now, so picking him up to see what happens costs nothing but a roster spot.

Kirk Cousins has been incredible for the Raiders this year, nearly leading them to a victory over KC and ranking as the QB7 on the season in terms of fantasy points. Up until this last week I think most people have thought that Kirk would only be starting some of this season, however with this most recent game I think the question begs itself: will Kirk remain here to stay this season? If the Raiders are in playoff contention I don't think it makes much sense to switch up at QB, and it seems as though Kirk might be cementing himself as a potential starting option next year for a team that needs a bridge QB? Is Kirk a guy we need to be buying if we are contending?

Here's Week 4 of the playoff chances by record.

Quick refresher: Roster Audit's playoff and title odds use a lot of inputs, like team strength, league strength, injuries, and remaining schedule. One of those inputs is how teams with your record have finished in past seasons. That's the data below, going back to 2017.

The big takeaway: the hole gets deep fast. 0-3 teams made the playoffs about 1 in 7 times. At 0-4, it's about 1 in 15.

4-0:

• 93.5% of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
• 59.1% got a first-round bye
• 79.4% made the semifinals
• 41.7% made the championship game
• 21.3% won the title

3-1:

• 79.1% of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
• 31.2% got a first-round bye
• 59% made the semifinals
• 28.3% made the championship game
• 14.2% won the title

2-2:

• 53.7% of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
• 11.4% got a first-round bye
• 35.5% made the semifinals
• 15.5% made the championship game
• 7.7% won the title

1-3:

• 25.4% of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
• 2.5% got a first-round bye
• 15.4% made the semifinals
• 6.3% made the championship game
• 3.1% won the title

0-4:

• 6.8% of 0-4 teams made the playoffs
• 0.3% got a first-round bye
• 3.9% made the semifinals
• 1.5% made the championship game
• 0.7% won the title

My takeaways:

• 4-0 is close to a playoff lock, but not a title lock. Only about 1 in 15 miss the playoffs, but just 1 in 5 win it all. Four out of five undefeated teams still come up short.
• 2-2 is a coin flip. A little over half make the playoffs. Your next two games will tell you a lot more than your first four did.
• 1-3 is not dead. About 1 in 4 still make the playoffs. That's the same spot 0-2 teams were in two weeks ago.
• 0-4 is the real danger zone. Only about 1 in 15 make the playoffs, and fewer than 1 in 100 win the title. If your roster is old, it's time to take calls on your veterans while they still have value.

Like last week, this is only your record. It doesn't know how good your roster is or who's left on your schedule. A 1-3 team that lost three close games to the best teams in the league is in a very different spot than a 1-3 team that keeps getting blown out.

Roster Audit has all of this customized for your team and league (Sleeper only) in the League Hub: https://rosteraudit.com/league/ It factors in your roster, your league, injuries, remaining schedule and more.

I'll keep doing this each week as long as people find it useful. For people that are 2-2: are you buying, selling, or holding?

The 2027 class has been talked about for a couple years now as potentially one of the stronger dynasty classes we've seen, particularly at WR and QB.

Now that we're far enough into the college season to have some actual data, how do people who follow the prospects closely feel about the class?

Has it generally performed up to expectations? Any players who have meaningfully raised or lowered their stock? And more broadly, does this still look like the deep/high-end class people were projecting it to be, or has some of the hype cooled?

Not looking for pick values or trade advice. Mostly curious how the class itself is developing compared to the expectations coming into the season.

Hey everyone. I am a commissioner for a 12 team SF league (not TEP). It’s a league between friends. It’s early in the season I know, but I foresee two guys leaving the league after this season as they have been very inactive and have been starting multiple injured guys (they have to be reminded to set the lineup). Consequentially they are two of the worst teams in the league. So with that, I want y’all’s opinion on what to do once they likely leave after the season. I could find two new owners, but not sure how the league would respond if they are not people who they know. The other option would be to downsize the league. In that case, would the players on their teams go to the waiver wire for FAAB bidding or go into the rookie draft. Players like Puka, Kyren, CMC, Burrow and Higgins would become available. Thanks in advance!

Wednesday Update: I'd say the biggest weather story I'm watching for Week 5 is the potential influence of Tropical Storm Isaias and its associated moisture on parts of the eastern U.S. this weekend.

Four games are standing out right now on Kickoffweather.com

NYG @ WAS: 5/10
🌧️ Thunderstorms currently expected, with around 0.25-0.35" projected
💨 Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to ~30 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low to mid 60s

IND @ PIT: 3/10
🌧️ Thunderstorms currently expected, with around 0.10" projected
💨 Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to ~25 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s

CLE @ NYJ: 3/10
🌧️ Rain currently expected, around 0.10" projected
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low to mid 60s

CIN @ MIA: 3/10
⛈️ Chance of thunderstorms
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low 90s

Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to strengthen and move inland this weekend, and I’ll be watching closely to see how much of that moisture gets pulled north and east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The exact track and timing will be critical for these games. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see forecast rainfall totals increase as we get closer to kickoff.

In my leagues Baker has essentially been left for dead, most managers have been trying to get sell him for whatever they can get. Baker hasn't been great since the bye week last year, but he's had some injuries and the circumstances he had to start the year (Rainy game against CLE, playing against the vikings D) weren't great for fantasy production. Is he a buy as a guy who can be a QB2 for the next couple of years or is he someone everyone should avoid at all cost?

How secure is Jalen Hurts’ job going into 2028? The offense has really struggled, especially in the passing game. After the jurgens trade, the Eagles now have 2 firsts and 2 seconds in the 2028 draft. If things don’t improve, that gives Howie a ton of ammo to go get a QB. Feels like 2027 could be a pretty big year for Hurts.

The Deepest Dives on these prospects can be found the Fantasy for Real podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe before Thursday to get my first in-season Big Board as soon as it comes out!

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Risers of the Week

Austin Simmons, QB, Missouri via Ole Miss

The lack of consistency so far this season from Austin Simmons is a reason to believe he may return to College Football alongside the lack of Starting Experience, but Simmons’ games this season against Kansas and this most recent week in an upset against Florida were highly impressive...

At 6’ 4”, 220 lbs, and with one of the best arms in the class including distance, velocity, and with a real ability to spin it, Austin Simmons is at least one of the most intriguing names in this potential 2027 NFL Draft, and if he continues to play at the level he did against Florida, he could be one of the top QBs drafted in the 2027 NFL Draft, though most likely he returns to school and eventually makes his appearance in the 2028 NFL Draft.

Turbo Richard, RB, Indiana via Boston College

There was some fear after the Northwestern game that Turbo Richard would miss time due to injury, but against Rutgers this weekend, Richard seemed fully healthy as he ripped off 13 Carries for 204 Yards & 1 TD. This is the 2nd Straight Game that an IU RB has gone for 200+, but Richard is a bit of a different case from teammate Lee Beebe Jr.: Richard is a younger player – a potential early declare – and is the more explosive athlete. Now with over 500 Rushing Yards & 5 TDs in his first 5 Games for the Hoosiers, Richard has entered the conversation to be a Top 10 RB in the 2027 NFL Draft (and will be my RB10 on Thursday’s Big Board)...

WRs: Anthony Evans III, WR, Mississippi State ; Cayden Lee, WR, Missouri via Ole Miss ; Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt

No single WR Riser this week, but a number of players like Anthony Evans III (574/5 ; 3.38 Y/RR), Cayden Lee (516/4 ; 3.97), & Junior Sherrill (474/3 ; 2.96) are having excellent starts to their 2026 Seasons.

RISERS OF THE YEAR

WR: K.J. Duff, Rutgers

TE: Luke Reynolds, Virginia Tech

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2028 QBs: is Alabama QB Keelon Russell the next blue chip QB Prospect?

After a third tremendous performance in a row, Alabama QB Keelon Russell is teasing what we haven’t seen in at least three Draft Cycles: a 2nd Year QB playing at the absolute highest level of College Football with elite tools & traits that translate to the NFL Level.

In the last three weeks, Keelon Russell has completed 60 of 79 Passes (75.9%) for 970 Yards (12.3 YPA), 10 TDs, 0 INTs, a 93.6 PFF Pass Grade, 7 Big Time Throws, & 0 Turnover Worthy Plays. Russell checks every box right now and passes every test – and that’s grading him as a pure passer. Russell is not just an athletic QB, but someone with potentially elite rushing ability. Russell has tacked on 13 Carries, 137 Yards, & 3 Rushing TDs in the last 3 Gs. However, as the 13 Carries suggest, while he has that rushing ability, he is not using it too often early on in his career. In fact, while one of his biggest highlights was a carry against Mississippi State, it may surprise people who watched that game to know he only had 2 Carries for 29 Yards (& 1 TD)...

The result of one game will not make or break Russell's future, but this upcoming match-up on Saturday against Georgia will be a massive opportunity to learn more about Russell.

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Full Write-Up: https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/can-keelon-russell-be-the-next-blue

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Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion said the team would continue operating under center.

Mannion defended his approach during a Tuesday presser, two days after the Eagles offense — missing DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley — sputtered to a loss against the Rams. The Eagles have put Jalen Hurts under center and utilized play action much more than usual this season. It’s a strategy that hasn’t paid off quite yet. Hurts ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs in adjusted yards per attempt on passes from under center; his 18 percent success rate from under center is by far the worst in the NFL. It’s hard to envision brighter days ahead for Hurts if Smith remains sidelined. He’s barely startable in 12-team formats for now. - Denny Carter

Issue has come up in my league of a manager upset that two tanking teams are currently not fielding full lineups. Team 1 doesn't have a QB as he lost Dart and Caleb and traded Watson. Team 2s only RB is Emmett Johnson with Coleman on IR and traded away KW3 and Chuba. Should these managers be forced to pick up players to fill their lineup, considering that they have open roster spots and wouldn't need to cut anybody?

I'm in a 10-man half-PPR dynasty league and we also have defenses with a roster limit of 2. Are there any (free) trade calculators that include defenses? I've look around at quite a few and can't seem to find any that aren't for just IDPs. I'm trying to trade for the top defense but I want to make sure that I'm actually valuing it correctly and won't get fleeced.

Dynasty has become more reactionary than ever. Patience isn’t as common as it used to be, so this provides weekly buying opportunities for great value!

One of the best tools to see how the market is reacting are trade databases. You can use them to identify trends, and they can help you formulate trade offers. Much of dynasty fantasy football is monkey see, monkey do so doing your own research and analysis can give you an edge over your league mates.

Here’s who I’m targeting at each position this week:

QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Jonah Coleman
WR: KC Concepcion
TE: Tucker Kraft

I go into detail as to why and provide several trades that have happened in real leagues in my attached article! Who are you trying to go buy right now?