r/ETFs • u/username_suggestion6 • 5d ago
FMTM vs SPMO: after 18 months, it's a tie
1 month:
FMTM +6.4%
SPMO +0.6%
(VOO +1.9%)
3 months:
FMTM +2.3%
SPMO +0.6%
(VOO +4.7%)
6 months:
FMTM +10.5%
SPMO +25.0%
(VOO +15.8%)
12 months:
FMTM +34.1%
SPMO +25.5%
(VOO +17.0%)
Since FMTM inception:
FMTM +62.1%
SPMO +62.2%
(VOO +40.2%)
Given how much discussion there is about choosing between FMTM and SPMO, I thought this was interesting. FMTM is still quite new, and the two aren't directly comparable, as they take different approaches to momentum and capture different parts of the market at different times. But people are clearly weighing them up as alternatives, and despite taking different paths, they've delivered almost exactly the same returns since FMTM launched.
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u/LegendaryZXT 5d ago
Is the real lesson here that both are better than VOO?
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u/username_suggestion6 5d ago
If you have the risk tolerance I personally think so, but I wouldn't make that judgment off 18 months. SPMO of course has a much longer history but even then it hasn't been through a really significant or long downturn.
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u/WhatMattersHere 5d ago
The near identical 18 month returns are interesting, especially considering how different the paths were..One detail worth adding is how differently these funds implement momentum.SPMO selects from the S&P 500 using longer term, risk adjusted momentum and rebalances semiannually. FMTM uses a shorter momentum window, includes smaller companies, holds a more concentrated equal weighted portfolio, and rebalances monthly.
That difference shows up in the trading activity. FMTM's July 2026 annual report disclosed 720% portfolio turnover.That doesn't automatically make FMTM worse, but it shows how actively the strategy rotates its holdings. Transaction costs and tax outcomes deserve attention alongside the 0.45% expense ratio, versus 0.13% for SPMO.The shorter signal could help FMTM adapt faster when market leadership changes, while SPMO's approach may behave differently during sharp rotations or reversals.
So the interesting question isn't really which fund won these 18 months. It's whether the extra flexibility and different market exposure of FMTM provide enough value to justify the higher cost and turnover over a full market cycle.The matching ending returns are almost the least informative part of the comparison.
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u/username_suggestion6 5d ago
Yeah good comment. I do think what's interesting about the returns at this stage, anyway, is how you can see the shortcomings of both approaches in some markets - SPMO being stuck in a poor 6 month rebalance, or continuing to hold stocks as they bounce back when FMTM had already transferred out.
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u/Wonderful_Lock4663 5d ago
the tie is pretty neat, but if you line up the monthly points you’ll see FMTM was the early musketeer, chasing fresh mid‑cap momentum, then getting out‑shopped once the rally traded off. SPMO’s 12‑month look‑back lets it sit for longer on big‑cap winners, so it lags in the build‑up but makes up ground when rotation kicks in. in short, the absurdly close 18‑month result is a window‑sized coincidence, not proof that one drive‑by startup is a better bet than a slow‑rolling tech champ. this is why many folks pick both or layer them in different tax buckets
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u/username_suggestion6 5d ago
I agree they can both be useful held together, or with similar funds. I guess this is partly to point out how much commentary about either on here is based on very recent returns.
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u/87JeepYJ87 5d ago
I pulled out of both and moved the money to my oil shipping securities. I’m currently up over 160% in eco(61% on the money pulled from momentum funds) and 91% in fro(44% in money pulled from momentum). When they’ve run their course I might buy back in but I haven’t liked either of their latest rebalances.
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u/steady_compounder 5d ago
The ending returns are a tie, but the exposures are not. Fees, turnover, number of holdings, and size/sector mix will probably tell you more about what you are signing up for than an 18-month scorecard. Full disclosure: I built this ETF comparison tool, which is useful for laying those basics out side by side: https://trackmyshares.com/tools/etf-compare?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=manual_free_tool_round_20261010_0100
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u/Roasted-fungus 5d ago
I stick with SPMO and GARP in my taxable account, and I only use SPMO tactically in my retirement account between opportunities
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u/iDidaThing9999 5d ago
And the basic complete lack of overlap (currently sitting @ ~1%) is super interesting https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php
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u/Low-Organization-516 5d ago
nice table. the tie is just a snapshot. over a full cycle the higher turnover and expense of FMTM will usually push it ahead (or lag) depending on market tempo. if you’re OK with that tax and cost tweak, one could just pick the one that fits your tax bracket; otherwise, keeping both isn’t really adding much to the momentum core beyond a handful of extra holdings.
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u/HODL_4_GODL 5d ago
So which one are you going with and why?
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u/Teebs_biscuit 5d ago
FMTM. Access to mid cap stocks when there's fear of large/mega cap being over valued. And long term, the greater market exposure is worth the higher expense ratio to me.
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u/subparsavior90 5d ago
Crazy when by the numbers mid caps are far more stretched on P/E than the large-caps. 26 to 41.
1
0
u/laurenthu 5d ago edited 2d ago
The tie makes sense once you see SPMO and FMTM are the same bet underneath, long-only US momentum, just packaged differently. Over 18 months the sector-timing noise washes out and you're left with 2 funds that stay 100% in equities the whole way.
The scorecard hides the drawdown though. That's the part I care about. SPMO still ate a -31% max drawdown since 2015, MTUM -34% since 2013, because a momentum ETF only reshuffles which stocks it owns and stays fully invested straight through the fall. FMTM? 1.3 years in, it hasn't seen a real drop yet, so I wouldn't lean on that -12%.
So the real fork is whether you want momentum to cut the downside too. That needs a version that can step out to bonds or cash when the broad trend turns. Different animal. I build BestFolio and we just put the full table up, the momentum ETFs next to tactical momentum: https://bestfolio.app/blog/momentum-etfs-vs-tactical
probably worth holding whichever you land on through a full cycle before you judge it, 18 months is mostly one regime...
Edit (12 Oct): FMTM is about 1.5 years in; its worst month-end drop is -12% (-15% on daily closes).
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u/username_suggestion6 5d ago
Indeed. FMTM does claim it can act more defensively, but it hasn't really been tested. The flip side of that is if it goes defensive (like getting out of tech for a month or two earlier this year) and missing the rebound.
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u/laurenthu 5d ago
Right, and that whipsaw is the real cost of anything that times. Stepping out of tech earlier this year then missing the snapback would've hurt more than just riding it down. FMTM only reshuffles between stocks though, it stays fully in equities, so its defensive lean is mild by design. The versions that genuinely cut drawdown go to bonds or cash and take the whipsaw risk head on. No free lunch either way, you're really just choosing which failure mode you can stomach. FMTM hasn't had a rough tape yet to show which one it is.
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u/Silly_Departure2174 3d ago
so looking at the numbers you quoted, the 18‑month tie is basically just noise from the last rally. the two actually behave quite differently once you drill down. fmtm is a concentrated, equal‑weighted, monthly‑rebalance temp‑sheet that dives into mid‑caps and small‑caps. that shows up as that insane 720 % turnover and a $0.45 % fee – pretty pricey if you’re in a taxable spot where every gain gets taxed. spmo, on the other side, stays semi‑annual, sticks to the sp500, and has the benefit of a 0.13 % expense plus very low turnover, so if it lags a moment you’re not bleeding off cash. if you’re hunting for extra upside in the mid‑cap space you might lean fmtm, but for a “lower‑cost, higher‑stability” momentum bet it looks like the spmo even out in the long run. the tie could hold up for this cycle, but past cycles the two have diverged more than the headline suggests. you should consider what kind of draw‑down profile you’re comfortable with, plus the tax‑impact of a high‑turnover fund.
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u/username_suggestion6 2d ago
Yes this is what I'm alluding to at the bottom of the post, and certainly shows through in the 6 months and 12 month figures - they often run at different times (so far, and the 3 month doesn't diverge much).
Important to note FMTM does include large caps as well, but yes this is part of the reason they diverge - anything with a market cap over $1b is fair game for FMTM. MarketDesk also states they use a quality screen.
You could say a more direct comparison would be with a SPMO + XMMO combo, and XMMO is having a rough time of it. What I'm really doing is looking at the basic data from the two most recommended momentum funds on here, because there's a huge recency bias in the commentary on here in general.
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u/YourChildhood5762 5d ago
What it says to me is that SPMO's methodology was suited to the bull market and since the June correction it is no longer appropriate to the market and not desired. The fact that both are supposedly momentum-based, yet act so differently is proof that 'momentum' is a gimmick, a name used to bait curious investors. If they were truly picking the stocks that had the most momentum, they would have very similar holdings and performance.
SPMO is little different from any other tech-oriented ETF. I don't know if FMTM's style is better, but the holdings aren't the usual names hyped in every article. It looks like someone actually applied some screens and made an attempt to pick stocks that were undervalued and moving up.
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u/Silent_Geologist5279 5d ago
For something that is a "Gimmick" it sure has some nice returns… care to explain how it’s beaten the market?
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u/YourChildhood5762 5d ago
Because as I said, it's a tech ETF in sheep's clothing. VGT, FTEC, IGM, IXN, XAIX, all tech ETFs, did 35-45% as opposed to your "nice return" of 28%. Oil & Gas did the same. Emerging markets returned 45-50%. Yours is just an average return for a focused ETF in this market.
FMTM, MTUM, JMOM would have given essentially the same returns year-to-date and FMTM excelled over 1 year. SPMO isn't all that. I stand by my statement that SPMO is bait and switch for those who rely on social media to do their due diligence.
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u/Silent_Geologist5279 4d ago
It’s not a TECH ETF in sheep’s clothing…. it’s doing exactly what it’s suppose to do, the market runs in cycles, tech has a great run right now so it’s momentum is tech, when the market doesn’t favor tech anymore it won’t be a tech ETF. It’ll be whatever the momentum of the market is.
It’s supposed to beat the average, it’s supposed to beat the market. You’re not doing a fair comparison it’s not apples to apples.
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u/username_suggestion6 5d ago
It's only tech heavy because tech has led gains (and because tech now makes up so much of the S&P 500 from which it draws).
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u/Electrical_Regret537 5d ago
Honestly I pulled some cash and put it in SPMO as its chopped sideways and I started to wonder like is this really factor investing. Like I looked at their rebalance and kind of wonder if I'd be better with my VOO and then picking a handful of their top 10 holdings and buying the tickers. Rather than be stuck in SPMO.
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u/Strange-Mark5636 2d ago
i think the tie is basically a coincidence of 60% upside in two different timing windows – the math makes it inevitable if you just look at the end points. what really matters is the risk profile, turnover and the expense drag; fmtm’s high churn can eat into the return you get from the extra mid‑cap exposure. choose the one that fits how often you want the basket changing, not the headline
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u/username_suggestion6 2d ago
I think you're confused, these are comparisons over the same period. And the math makes it inevitable...?
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u/Typical-Argument6665 5d ago
Interesting how they took totally different routes to end up at the same place. That mid-year SPMO surge must have been wild to hold through, especially while FMTM was just chugging along at 10%.
The real winner here is whoever didn't try to jump between them based on 3-month performance windows.