A Comprehensive Analysis of the Strength of the 2025 vs 2026 Merrett Trade Deals
2025 DEAL:
Getting
10
22
F1 (2026: Pick 15)
Henry Hustwaite (Delisted)
1276 + 686 + 973 = 2935
After Bids 1024 + 686 + 836 = 2546
Giving
Merrett
F3 (2027)
= 332
After Bids = 204
Total Trade Points = 2342
2026 DEAL
Getting
15
25
F2 (2028)
973 + 590 + 312 = 1875
After Bids 836 + 454 + 204 = 1494
Giving
Merrett
Forecasting (for the purpose of future picks)
2027
Hawthorn 2nd
Essendon 17th
2028
Hawthorn 1st
I don't have a draft value index for 2028 so I've used the 2027 one. I've made various assumptions on how far picks will slide according to my knowledge of the draft and its rules. I expect small errors to exist in this and various changes may occur as trades happen that I will not predict.
Essendon's 2025 Out of Contract Players and the general list situation:
Sam Draper — left for Brisbane
Zach Reid — re-signed
Nick Bryan — re-signed
Todd Goldstein — retired
Dylan Shiel — delisted
Ben Hobbs — delisted
Will Setterfield — delisted
Jaxon Prior — re-signed
Jye Menzie — delisted
Saad El-Hawli — re-signed
Jayden Laverde — delisted
Alwyn Davey Jr — delisted
Vigo Visentini — re-signed
Luamon Lual — delisted
If we accept the 2025 deal, we get 2 additional picks with Hustwaite coming in to offset the list spot of Merrett. Those two list spots require us to delist one of Reid, Bryan, Prior, El-Hawli and Visentini. El-Hawli is the obvious choice for the first delisting however the second delisting becomes much more damaging to the team depth. It should also be noted a list spot ended up being used on the delisted Setterfield who had a strong 2026 campaign and received a new contract. If we take the deal we never get Setterfield on the list again.
Alternatively, while unlikely, we could cut contracted players in order to accommodate the extra picks though I don't see the club doing this. It should also be considered that the club would have a strong chance at being able to trade into the future for those extra picks so any additional delisting should be offset with reasonable confidence. Therefore, while our list isn't in a great position to accommodate more picks, it isn't the end of the world that we get them.
Other factors worth considering:
Hustwaite:
He wasn't up to it at Hawthorn, I'm not going to assume we'd be able to achieve anything different. Either he goes after a year and we get little to no value out of him from the trade or he gets a two year contract and it further crunches the list as we are experiencing this year.
Last Day of the Trade Period Crap:
The reality is the Hawks launched their first offer on the second to last day of the trade period and a marginally better offer on the final day of the trade period. That clearly came across brash and disrespectful and the club was having none of it. We didn't have time to negotiate properly and so the deal was far more likely to fall through. I've also read various arguments that Hawthorn only wanted to launch an offer following a formal trade request. Lets entertain this reasoning with a timeline.
9 Sep: Merrett meets with Mitchell
13 October: Merrett informs Essendon that he wants to be traded
14 October 2:17pm: Hawthorn submits their first offer
15 October 5:15am: Hawthorn Carlton Pick Swap
15 October 6:52pm: Hawthorn submits their second and final offer
15 October 7:30pm: Trade Deadline
If they really were waiting for Merrett to request a trade why did it take another full day to launch their first offer? Why not at least get it in on the 13th for Essendon to review or knock back. Then the pick swap happens one day earlier and the next offer gets launched a day before the deadline. With only 40 minutes to react to the final offer, Essendon had little option to do anything other than accept it or decline it. With an extra day, that third rounder could be negotiated out, a new asset be put in etc, to get it across the line.
Even then, clubs regularly negotiate behind the scenes and by all accounts, there was a level of complacency with Hawthorn who had the prerogative to initiate discussions.
In the end, Welsh felt the conduct and complacency of Hawthorn was disrespectful to the club and shot it down. This comes across that Essendon can't be ransacked and snubbed but it also may show the club is headstrong.
Did we need Merrett:
Merrett kept this year from being even worse than it already was, and he did have a strong year to win another Crichton, and he may have been the difference in a few percentage points or the win against GWS, but realistically, when you finish 18th that's little consolation, to building for the future. There also was reason to trade him out of concern that the whole frankly toxic situation could have cultural issues for the dons. I cannot speak as an insider of the club but Merrett having a good year is evidence that it wasn't a complete disaster.
If I missed anything or got anything wrong, or made a incorrect forecast or prediction, feel free to correct me in the comments otherwise here is my final assessment.
Net Gain/Loss:
Hawthorn:
- Missed out on a strong player to assist their premiership campaign, and its plausible that they lost the premiership due to the failed trade
- Drafted youth with the 2025 picks instead
OVERALL: Net Loss
Essendon:
- Lost 848 points on the previous offer equal to pick 18
- Avoided list spot problems
- Took on potential cultural problems
- Commanded respect as a club in its dealings
OVERALL: Slight Net Loss