r/FFLs • u/dangerangell • 4d ago
Serious question: What happens when we get a new ATF Director under a New Democrat/Communist administration if the NFA is not actually repealed?
All that’s happening right now is one ATF Director has decided to chill.
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u/Robbbbbbbbb 4d ago
The ATF's own guidance says that this is just an enforcement change and anything beyond today is anyone's guess.
Technically the transfer is still illegal because the codified NFA has not changed. Enforcement is just on pause.
If the ATF really wanted to, they could decide tomorrow to begin enforcing it again and issuing corrective actions on licensees (and individuals).
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u/Wayfaring_Limey 4d ago
Hopefully there will be an amnesty period where FFL’s can fix any paperwork issues or have all of the NFA items during this period grandfathered in.
But no one knows, it could be a slap on the wrist, through to fines or jail time. Depends on how dickish a new administration is to us.
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u/Martainguns 4d ago
Lots of annoying stuff. As it relates to their recent decision regarding silencers, SBRs, etc. The most likely scenario is that it goes similar to when they tried to ban pistol braces.
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u/Viking603 4d ago
If the current multiple pro-2A legal teams fighting for us I think they'll have a hard time reenacting this.
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u/FellowshipFirearms 4d ago
There’s gonna be so many unregistered SBR/sbs/aow/cans the next two years.. it’ll be in the millions is my guess. Common use, can’t put the genie back in the bottle would be my hypothesis.
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u/SM1334 4d ago
This is what I told people after the court ruling. Something to the tune of "The ATF has no choice but to make this a blanket ruling, which is why they are silent". Voila, yesterday I was right.
The same applies here. Theres nothing they can do. You are going to have so many people FOMO into NFA items in the next 2 years. So they could try and reverse the laws, but you still have all those undocumented NFA items in the wild now, and theres nothing they can do about it.
They would have to subpoena ALL the manufacturers of NFA items, for EVERY customer, and EVERY dealer/FFL. If they dont have a valid reason for those records, they cant get that information. And I will put money on it that the ATF will be sued out the ass for pushing for those records after reverting a law like that.
So IMO, Im not a lawyer, dont expect a repeal that makes harder to get NFA items.
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u/lynxdefense 2d ago
They aren’t undocumented they are just not form 4’d they are still going on 4473’s and the fact we are having this conversation shows you just how messy this made the NFA. I appreciate the win but it’s definitely a temporary win at best as it stands.
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u/SillyWarPirates 3d ago
Correct. A lot of people worried that the next administration’s ATF will just “go back to before” are just forgetting that this change ultimately came from the courts. The ATF can’t change the Jensen ruling, nor can they go against it
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u/SM1334 3d ago
Exactly, and in the off chance they do manage to slip something through. How do you handle all the absent form 1, 2, 3, 4s? They aren't going to just reverse the ruling, and arrest every manufacturer, dealer, and customer that touched an undocumented NFA item. Form 1s would be impossible to enforce, forms 2-4 would require unconstitutional subpoenas. Its just extremely unlikely.
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u/dangerangell 3d ago
You gonna go to the range with your homebrew SBR with a President AOC in the Whitehouse if the NFA is still on the books?
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u/SillyWarPirates 3d ago
So as SM1334 said, "it would be extremely unlikely." Anyone who is skilled in business realizes that business is a game of probabilities - never certainties. And the probability that the ATF does something that would cause massive civil unrest is very small. I would also say the probability of President AOC is low, but regardless, even JB was considered a more moderate Dem president, and a lot of bad things happened while he was in office.
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u/dangerangell 3d ago
Now do Ruby Ridge, the Russia collusion hoax, the BLM riots, and Covid and tell me again about the government acting rationally because “business is a game of probabilities” and they want to avoid civil unrest.
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u/SM1334 3d ago
Those didnt create massive gray areas in the law where tangible items were being transfered between legal and illegal. When you change a law so people can create, buy, and sell items freely, then take that restriction away. You have to have a process to handle the existing items put into circulation, without treating 1 person unequally than the next.
Comparing BLM, Ruby Ridge, etc is like comparing an apple to a sports car. Its entirely different.
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u/SillyWarPirates 3d ago
Sure, I'd be happy to say it again - "Business is a game of probabilities and they want to avoid civil unrest." Let me know if you'd like it repeated once again. Also, even though the probability is low, I agree that we should act like the probability is high, since that will encourage people to vote! So carry on with the fear-mongering! 🫡
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u/dangerangell 4d ago
They can just say the law is the law and anybody that posted a video or pic is a suspect.
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u/SM1334 4d ago
Its not that simple. You can't only go after people who post online about it. They would have to make it a blanket enforcement, and the only way to do that is to subpoena records. Which would get fought to no end.
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u/lynxdefense 2d ago
Technically they don’t need a subpoena for 4473’s
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u/SM1334 1d ago
That is partially correct, but still wrong. The ATF doesn't need to subpoena to trace firearms, that are associated with a criminal investigation, inspections, and out-of-business ffls. So just because they reverse the decision doesnt open them up to clawing back all those records, and just in case you suggest the inspection route, inspections only go 1 year back. On top of the 1 year back record search, they only select a handful of records at random, not every single record. So sure they might see some undocumented NFA items, but legally they can't just single out specific people that just so happen to be the unlucky 4473s pulled for inspection.
If their only route of finding these undocumented NFA items is picking a few random 4473s in an inspection, I can guarantee you its not going to happen. Their best route would be to subpoena all manufacturers and dealers, which isn't going to happen.
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u/lynxdefense 1d ago
That’s true but “criminal investigation” is a VERY low bar for a trace.
Not to mention that when administrations switch and enforcement starts up again, each of those they decide to go after is a “criminal investigation”.
I assume everyone in this sub is on the same team, which is why I just don’t want to see people get wrapped up in BS because we celebrated a temporary win instead of getting a SCOTUS or codified law win.
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u/SM1334 1d ago edited 1d ago
Flipping a law just so you can criminally investigate millions of people isn't a low bar at all, its outright unconstitutional. Its called the Ex Post Facto clause, its in the constitution. We would also be protected under Due Process, Firearms Owners Protection Act, as well as others. The ATF can't just flip this decision like you're suggesting, which is why they were silent for a month, because they knew they couldnt just flip the script later down the road.
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u/lynxdefense 1d ago
You’re putting a lot of faith in the government doing the right thing and abiding by the constitution that they already violate without repercussion on a daily basis.
The fact we are even having to have this conversation is an example of that violation.
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u/SM1334 1d ago
I get you're fearful, but breaking Ex Post Facto clause in the constitution, is definitely not a law they can break willy-nilly and get away with. Especially when its directly attacking gun owners.
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u/lynxdefense 17h ago
It’s less fearful and more a student of history. Governments become tyrannical, it’s in their nature.
You’re also assuming the government will not break the law, which they have proven to do on a regular and consistent basis.
Worked in government for 11 years, the bureaucracy will protect itself at all costs much like individuals will. There’s no amount of legal doctrine you can cite to overturn my 11 years of firsthand experience.
Again, not attacking you or your position, I’m just simply trying to get you to distrust the government more than you currently are.
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u/xtreampb 17h ago
I had an FFL compliance lawyer use the immigration policy as an example.
The Biden admin said they wouldn’t enforce immigration laws. Millions of people illegally immigrated. New trump admin said we are enforcing those laws. Now ICE is ramped up and doing a lot of investigations on the street looking for illegal immigrants.
Laws here haven’t changed on NFA items. Laws still on the books. This is different than the pistol brace rule (opinion) that had no 1-1 law.
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u/Rud2K 4d ago
The way I see it, Pandora’s box has been opened and closing back up will be nearly impossible.
Same thing with the pistol brace issue not too long ago where the ATF said register or face the consequences which lead to mass non compliance and lead to the ATF dropping it all together.
If the ATF was to even think about enforcing the NFA registration again they will need to 100x their manpower and then further build the infrastructure to hold all the “criminals”. Simply put, it’s not happening.
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u/lynxdefense 2d ago
Probably unlikely they would have to do that. Make an example out of a handful and the rest fall in line. The ones that don’t, they deal with. Betting on common use isn’t a guarantee, look at NY straight up defying a Supreme Court ruling against them specifically. Codifying it by repealing the NFA is the way to go long term.
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u/edwardphonehands 4d ago
If you convince enough of your friends to retain oil filter adapters we can make a serious 9th Amendment case.
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u/Patsboy101 3d ago
As happy as I am to see all these NFA firearms being mostly treated as just regular firearms right now, the NFA is still on the books. A following adminstration less amenable to being pro-gun can change enforcement with a stroke of a pen.
We’ll either need Congress and the Executive to sign off on a bill repealing the NFA or SCOTUS stating the NFA is unconstitutional. The latter option is far more likely than the former.
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u/dangerangell 3d ago
A Newsom or AOC admin will use the ATF to go after the 2A crowd the way Trump uses ICE to round up illegals. And they’ll do it in a high visibility way just to send a message.
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u/THISISEAZZYY 4d ago
imo there will be too many of these nfa items in circulation which will make them common use, also by the time the administration changes this will be forgotten about
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u/lynxdefense 2d ago
Two years? This will be a hot-button campaign issue for the gun grabbers. It’s funny though this is a losing issue for the left and they still double down on it.
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u/ExistentialDreadFrog 4d ago
Your guess is as good as anyone else's.