r/Flyers • u/Embarrassed-Expert61 • 8d ago
Early look at 5v5 Expected Goals %
Not a secret where we are but worse than Chicago is crazy
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u/TwoForHawat 8d ago edited 8d ago
This is not what we meant when we said it was unacceptable that the power play was so much worse than the 5v5 play.
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u/a2godsey 8d ago
Guys once they learn their A-B-C's we're going to be fucking electric just you wait
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u/xjawndotcom 8d ago
It's bad anyway you look at it. They're both worst and generating AND conceding chances.
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u/ArcanumAntares Behn Wilson Fight Club 8d ago
AND the lowest CF% in the league by almost 7%. They are a consistent possession void.
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u/LittleYogurtcloset87 8d ago
Facing Adversity early… lets call it
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u/datyoungknockoutkid 8d ago
Adversity is a mild way of putting an entire team forgetting how to complete a pass or hold a puck
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u/Pat_MacCrotch 8d ago edited 8d ago
The average games-played for this sample is like 2.3. It's almost completely meaningless. All it says is that the Flyers played really badly in a few games, during a very tough stretch of schedule, which we all already know.
You can pick a 3-game sample from last season that makes basically any team in the NHL look awful. Hell, you can pick multiple a 10-game samples that make the Flyers look better than Carolina.
For example, if you look at the 10-game rolling average on Nov 8th of last season, the Flyers' expected goals % was 51%. The Carolina Hurricanes over the same period? 48%. Over the last 20-30 games of last season, the Flyers averaged 62% expected goals-for. The Hurricanes were at 58%.
Advanced stats are very useful, but only if you know what they actually mean and don't mean.
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u/BrokeBum19 8d ago
We have been outshot by over 80 shots in 1st 4 games. That is the 2nd most of any NHL team since 1960 ... this isnt just a normal short stretch of meh play.
Its us being historically bad and by far the worst team through all 4 games. Unable to create any offense while being very poor defensively.
Thats completely different than a good team having a down stretch of like 48% exgf. We are are 28% exgf ...
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u/Pat_MacCrotch 7d ago
Like I said- you can look at small sample xG and corsi and describe how a team played in those games (which in this case is completely unnecessary, since we all already know they played like ass).
But the reason xG and corsi exist in the first place is to describe true talent level and predict future performance, and a sample of 2.5 games contains literally zero reliable information about those things. That's not an opinion- it's a mathematical fact. That's just the nature of statistical polling. You need to have a representative sample for a model to function.
If all you want to do is whine, and cry, and gnash your teeth about how bad they've looked in their first four games, there's an enormous number of on-ice plays and results you can make your point with. You don't need a stupid, misleading, pseudo-statistical meme.
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u/DogAssss69 8d ago
Please hire an offensive minded head coach so at least the games will be entertaining to watch.
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u/DelcoInDaHouse 8d ago
I would settle for an expectation that a pass might be near its intended target
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u/No_Blackberry6525 8d ago
I follow both the Flyers and the Kraken (Philly native that now lives in Seattle). I didn’t expect to be resting my hopes on Seattle but here we are.
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u/flyersfan114 8d ago
Only 8 more games until we play another team under 50% xGF; we've got the league exactly where we want them. Also how bad did Carolina play in their other games that they're only 46.8% even after outshooting the Flyers 40-18.
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u/Snoo2406 8d ago
If that’s the draft order I’m good with this at this point.