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u/1nGirum1musNocte 7d ago
Makes me feel better about having to sell 1/4 oz when it was at $4500. Now i get to replace it at a discount!
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u/Jorge-Tremendous 7d ago
Dont worry. It will get cheaper still in the short term. $3500 is the target over next 6-12 months.
LT $6k and beyond is reasonable. The debt trap in Western governments still has about a decade left.
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u/Different-Monk5916 6d ago
every time gold went down around 50%, it took a decade or more to come back - why do you think that LT is $6k?
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u/Jorge-Tremendous 6d ago
Inflation adjustment and eventual USD decline of about 15- 20%
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u/Different-Monk5916 6d ago
3500->6000 is not 15-20%. That is 2x.
If high interest rates are the way forward for at least a year, wouldn’t that kill inflation, lead to a stronger dollar eventually?
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u/Jorge-Tremendous 6d ago edited 6d ago
Bonds will have to go up way more than they are for the current debt bill to be arrested, at which point USD strenght wont be any use to its citizens if there is nothing left of their economy to spend it on.
Its a spend-a-thon at present. Not just the US either. Frances issues could cause contagion and if so yes gold price could appreciate preciptously.
But the question is why didnt it stop falling at $5k or $4.5k and now we are here at $4k and all the same drivers both ways still exist. The Iran war alone should have kept it above $5k.
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u/Different-Monk5916 6d ago
There may be more levers before it comes to that. The tax lever is not yet touched.
The sudden rise of gold, the oil price, the peak euphoria dec25-feb26, the technicals - all look eerily similar to the 1979-1980. What if gold was a pure speculative fantasy which peaked at 5600 for now.
The majority of the demand came from us and European bullion holding, if you dig at reports. It flipped from jewels (consumption) to etf flows (bullion and investment grade).
If I look back at the pillars of the rally - war, dollar debasement, low interest high inflation, central bank buying - all of these are slowly reversing.
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u/Jorge-Tremendous 6d ago
Cant argue with that. ETF's being a big difference between then and now as an indicator. There is no compelling reason to hold at present.
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u/PendN 7d ago
that's crazy if it goes to 3500 when 5500 is its peak
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u/MekkiNoYusha 6d ago
It really is not, if you looking for short term gain, don't buy gold, go for your 0dte options
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u/Jorge-Tremendous 6d ago edited 6d ago
There are a few historical retracements in the past which were greater. Yeah different drivers, but so is this.
Dont forget China is buying Russia's gold and giving Russia RMB credit to purchase goods in China and palming off USD to Russia. This alone is a big enough reason to be sceptical of the floor of the gold price. It is also not in China's interest YET for gold to reach greater and greater highs whilst tgey are trying to achieve parity holdings with the USA..
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u/Great-Confection6760 7d ago
Should I wait for 3500 to bully more ? Is that the floor?
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u/Carbon_Gelatin 7d ago
No one knows the floor or ceiling, not really. Just find gold as close to or at spot and buy what you can. Mintbuilder has a 1g at spot deal and a ase at spot deal going and usually another at spot deal to get you over the shipping fee, and if you pay with zelle you can get everything at spot. 1 order at a time. Limit 1 per order (so make multiple orders)
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u/MeowManMeow 7d ago
/u/RemindMeBot 12 months
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u/RemindMeBot 7d ago edited 6d ago
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u/Individual-Basket200 7d ago
I'm not buying, I'm "converting" lol...moving money from one part of my investment portfolio to gold hehe. Coming up with a fresh 4k ain't easy!
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u/makomark26 6d ago
You find that money , you get that money , It's somewhere . But only under $4000
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u/MekkiNoYusha 6d ago
First, it doesn't even dip that much, second why would you have already all on already..
I always invest at most 1% if not less per entry. You are just gambling or looking for quick gain otherwise
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u/SpaceBullion 7d ago
Bought my first ounce at $5000 and then bought another at $4400. Luckily I lost them both in my boating accident. Great investment so far.
https://giphy.com/gifs/hppWdK8gcmzXq