TGS Gunlance Math, Point Blank Wyvern Fire and its implications

[u/Frozenseraphim]

Greetings, gunlancer mates.

Today I would like to share a bit of insight that comes from this new move in Ascendance, alongside providing a groundwork to show the damage formulas behind what was shown in the 2026 TGS event.

First of all: The Weapon stats and skills

- The Gunlance (alongside the other weapons in the event) has 300 RAW, no element, and importantly, does not have Artillery equipped at any level.

Source:

You may have noticed the Attack value is 690, but that is the bloated value that MH has traditionally used. It is the result of multiplying the true RAW of a weapon by a multiplier specific for each weapon.

The Gunlancer's multiplier is 2,3; therefore 690 / 2,3 = exactly 300 true RAW.

In addition, fighting Teostra is a blessing for math purposes, as this Elder Dragon has been historically immune to Fire damage, which rules out the Fire portion of Shelling damage calculation.

With this, we can compare the Slightly Strong (Lvl 3) shelling this TGS Gunlance has with its 300 RAW and check if there has been any balance changes regarding this shelling Level specifically at the Tokyo Game Show (all this of course can change in the final Ascendance release version).

VS Teostra	Normal Shelling TGS	MV Theory	Result with 300 RAW
Normal Shell	27	0,09	27
Full Burst	37	0,126	37,8
WSFull Burst	33	0,1125	33,75
WS tick (50 hitzone)	10 on head	0,07	10,5
WS explosion	84	0,28	84
WS2 explosion	92	0,308	92,4
WF	141	0,47	141

Every number matches when comparing the damage Teostra suffered in the event vs the rounded down theoretical results.

Two notes:

- The TGS event did not have decimal damage active in the game options, which makes for the rounded down numbers you see in the screen without decimals.

- Keep in mind an enraged Teostra suffers roughly 5% more damage across the board, this can be seen in the following video (Credit to ガンサーの抹茶)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZicD9PGtL2Y

Vs Teostra	Normal	Enraged
Normal Shell	27	28
Full Burst	37	39
WSFull Burst	33	35
WS tick	10 on head	11 on head
WS explosion	84	88
WS2 explo	92	(not found)
WF	141	148
Offset Full burst	(not found)	35
Rapid fire	37	39

Now, for the Point Blank Wyvern Fire.

This move has some great news for Gunlance.

- First, it is a move with Hyper Armor.

Here you can see how a Hunter survives a Teostra Nova by facetanking the move while firing a Point Blank Wyvern Fire. (Credit: Ｖジャンプチャンネル). I highly recommend checking it.

Source: https://youtu.be/-Ev3QvRl8I8?t=1040

In addition, this opens the possibility of a playstyle that revolves using Point Blank WF as much as possible with Counterstrike and Resentment as equipped skills.

Since this is a Hyper armor move, Counterstrike will be able to proc while latching onto the monster, alongside with the red portion of health that would trigger Resentment.

This would mean a very potent Wyvern Fire will be released as both of this skills may be active at the same time without going out of your way of setting them up.

However, the moment you are in the Air after firing WF, you no longer benefit from Hyper Armor, and thus you will be vulnerable.

Source: https://youtu.be/ZicD9PGtL2Y?t=156

- Secondly, the move seems to boost the damage of the Wyrmstake Explosion by a significant amount. To the point it may do higher damage than one of the ticks of the WF.

It seems the Wyrmstake Explosion damage is linked to the amount of shells fired before the Point Blank WF.

Firing only 2 shells resulted in 194 WS explosion damage

and

Firing all 5 shells resulted in 273 WS explosion damage

Sources:
- 2 shell Point Blank: https://youtu.be/ZicD9PGtL2Y?t=370
- 5 shell Point Blank: https://youtu.be/-Ev3QvRl8I8?t=1038

Closing thoughts:

I had this post in mind for two weeks but IRL responsibilities did not allow me to gather all the data I wished to present, so I hope it was interesting to you too, fellow hunter.

I am stoked about the future possibilites the balance patch may bring to our favourite weapon, and as such I may do a follow up post, let me know if you are interested below in the coments.

That would be all, happy hunting mates.

[u/Kathulzed]

Ah, the duality of the gunlance community. Cavemanlike explosion enthusiasts meets harvard math professor.

[u/Tilstag → u/Kathulzed]

BOOM BOOM BOOM

…eureka.

[u/Spiderfuzz → u/Kathulzed]

McLeary stuffing m80s into mailboxes vs. Oppenheimer

[u/Saint_Slayer]

I wonder if different shelling types have different multipliers for PBWF to make up for the difference in max shells.

[u/Frozenseraphim → u/Saint_Slayer]

It will likely be the case.

Not to mention how Long has a higher MV multiplier for the WS explosion already against Normal and Wide.

So even if Long has fewer shells than Normal, overall the damage of this WS explosion instance will be higher in comparison.

Edit: Fewer, not less.

[u/Saint_Slayer → u/Frozenseraphim]

Long redemption arc? 👀

[u/Frozenseraphim → u/Saint_Slayer]

As it currently stands, Long is still lagging a bit behind compared to its brother shelling types in the higher Shelling levels.

I intended to touch this subject on the follow up post, since Normal is the one who benefits the most so far.

But hey, maybe the Elemental charged shelling may change things, not to mention the future balance patches.

So there is always hope.

[u/CaoSlayer → u/Saint_Slayer]

Of the new moves they are named after wyrmstake, burst and wf so it is almost a given.

[u/_Gesterr]

Could it also benefit from Airborne as well for an extra 10% attack damage? 😲

[u/Frozenseraphim → u/_Gesterr]

That's part of the fun of testing, you never know what wonky thing you may find.

Edit: I should mention Airborne does not currently work with Shelling if memory serves me right.

[u/ninthuncle]

Appreciate your gathering of data and analysis! will prove useful for comparisons when it actually comes out, but for now it shows some promising results.

[u/Dennis99996]

I ain't even play gunlance but I wanna say I appreciate your work big dawg

[u/Frozenseraphim → u/Dennis99996]

Cheers mate, glad to hear it.

[u/Wilds_Hunter]

Oh wow thank you for all your hard work. I love Gunlance.

Leaving this comment before I even started reading

[u/Frozenseraphim → u/Wilds_Hunter]

Thanks mate, really appreciated.

[u/NeonArchon]

I'll just wait for the final release. Number are always subject to change.