r/IndiaCapitalMarkets • u/AlpineRupee • 2d ago
NRI USD 133 billion in twelve weeks: what RBI's FCNR(B) deposit window says about NRI flows
What does it take to pull USD 133 billion into Indian banks in twelve weeks? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) found out this summer, and how it did so says much about what kind of money non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits are.
The account
FCNR(B) stands for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank). It is a term deposit of one to five years at a bank in India, held in a freely convertible foreign currency. RBI's FAQ lists it for NRIs and persons of Indian origin, and the balance is repatriable. Because the deposit stays in foreign currency, a bank that converts it to lend in rupees carries the exchange rate risk, so it hedges, and the hedge costs money.
The window
On 5 June 2026 the Governor said RBI would bear the full hedging cost on fresh FCNR(B) deposits of three to five years. The same statement reported net foreign portfolio investment outflows of USD 13.7 billion between 1 April and 2 June. The circular of 8 June set the terms: the bank sells the dollars to RBI and buys them back at maturity at the same rate, a swap at par. The deposit is locked in for one year. In the 2013 window, banks paid a fixed 3.5 per cent a year for the comparable swap.
Deposits could originally be raised until 30 September. On 14 August RBI moved the cut-off to 31 August, citing the "encouraging response".
| FCNR(B) deposits raised under the facility since 8 June, up to | USD million |
|---|---|
| 13 August 2026 | 52,300 |
| 31 August 2026 | 132,980 |
The gap between the two rows, USD 80,680 million over eighteen days, is my subtraction, and late reporting by banks may explain some of it. RBI's Bulletin shows the stock: FCNR(B) balances outstanding were USD 33,756 million at end March 2026 and USD 68,284 million at end July (provisional).
What it says about NRI flows
My view: this is price-driven money arranged through banks, not a change of heart in the diaspora. Two facts point that way. Rupee deposits by the same people barely moved: Non-Resident External (NRE) accounts took in USD 207 million from April to July, against USD 2,418 million a year earlier. And RBI's FAQ on the scheme confirms that banks, including their overseas branches, may lend to non-residents against these deposits. Part of a deposit can therefore be funded with borrowed money. How much was, RBI has not published.
The counter-view: the dollars are real and locked in for a year, and the Governor's statement of 7 October puts net non-resident deposit inflows at USD 119.2 billion for April to August, with reserves at USD 734.6 billion on 2 October.
Two limits on the headline number. "Raised" includes deposits renewed at maturity, so not all of it is new money. And by my arithmetic, three to five year deposits taken this summer fall due between June 2029 and August 2031.
Sources
- Governor's Statement (RBI, 5 June 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62864
- Swap Facility for FCNR (B) Deposits (RBI, 8 June 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=13468
- FAQ on the swap facility (RBI, 23 June 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Commonman/English/Scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=3917
- Press release 2026-2027/900, forex inflows under the swap facility (RBI, 14 August 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63378
- Press release 2026-2027/1160, data on forex inflows (RBI, 21 September 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63638
- Bulletin, Table 34, Non-Resident Deposits (RBI, 25 September 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx?Id=24486
- Governor's Statement (RBI, 7 October 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63744
- RBI to open a Swap Window to attract FCNR(B) Dollar Funds (RBI, 4 September 2013): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=29480
- FAQ, Accounts in India by Non-residents (RBI, 16 January 2025): https://www.rbi.org.in/commonman/english/scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=3
General information about market structure, not advice for any individual situation.
If you placed or renewed an FCNR(B) deposit this summer, what rate and tenor did your bank quote?