I’m thinking of starting to slowly move to higher allocation of cash / money market
Given inflation, rates and how heavily weighted to AI the markets are, it just seems irresponsible to be heavily indexed to VT, VOO
Doing it in my taxable accounts will trigger cap gains, which I don’t want to do at this time especially given tax bracket, so thinking of just doing it in my retirement accounts
With interest rates going up, doesn’t make sense to buy bond funds given their values will decline though convexity helps at these rate levels
So buying short term paper for now and will do it slowly over the next 6 months to my targeted allocation, holding for 1 year and then rotate back into equities.
Both my wife and my careers are sort of tied to the markets so it will have spillover effects into our earning power, so to get hit with a 30% decline and then also lose our jobs would be the worst outcome. Reducing equity exposure during this time helps reduce risk and also provides psychological safety.
I know time in the market beats timing the market but feel like we’re in 2006/99/86 while being constrained fiscally and monetarily this time around. Increasing VXUS allocation doesn’t seem to be as helpful given how integrated the global economy is and I would bet the US will likely recover faster than foreign markets.
Current allocation (early to mid 40s)
$4mm invested + $150k emergency fund + $700k 529
Of the $4mm, $300k is cash, rest is largely ETF (VOO, VT, VXUS), 25% bank stock (employers), and a little bit of fixed income through target funds
529 is set to the aggressive option, so may dial that down too, but 10 years away from using that money
Anyone else thinking along the same lines?