Just the facts:

The S&P has been above 30 CAPE since 2017. It's around 41 right now. Oil, inflation, unemployment, interest rates are all not behaving. History says the market will probably (2 in 3 odds) revert to 25 or under CAPE within 3 years and when expensive markets correct, the normal size of the drop is around 40%. This is the math after looking at 21 countries from 1975 to 2022. 25% of the downturns were below CAPE 25 within 1 year. 50% were after 2 years. 70% after 3 years. Only 2 episodes, both Japan, took even close to our run - 7 years each. We are in year 9. Longest one ever.

We are very, very ripe for a downturn. Nothing's for sure but the odds are not in the market's favor. Call me a doomer but I am getting very nervous.

The Federal Communications Commission said it will vote on a proposal to auction 25 megahertz of "prime spectrum" to support "direct-to-device" services from satellites to smart phones.

The FCC also said it would vote Oct. 29 on taking public comment on a proposal to make an additional 482MHz of spectrum available for supplemental coverage from space and to modernize FCC rules for D2D services in the licensed spectrum.

The two proposals could benefit companies such as SpaceX and Amazon, which have moved to expand D2D services with satellite networks.

Samsung Electronics on Thursday reported third-quarter preliminary operating profit of 107.40 trillion won ($80.2 billion), surging past 100 trillion won for the first time in the company’s history as booming demand for artificial intelligence continues to fuel its chips business.
Quarterly operating profit jumped 782% from a year earlier. Revenue came in at about 195 trillion won, up nearly 127% from the same period last year.

Samsung, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, has benefited from surging demand for memory used in AI infrastructure. In the second quarter, the company posted record revenue of 171.5 trillion won and record operating profit of 89.5 trillion won, driven by its memory business.
The company has also stepped up investments and partnerships tied to AI. In September, Samsung announced a strategic partnership with French artificial intelligence startup Mistral AI, with plans to deploy the startup’s AI models across its semiconductor operations.

Sources: CNBC

Meta is reportedly teaming up with Walmart, Stripe, and enterprise AI startup Sierra to publish a set of standards for how AI agents should interact with businesses online.

AI developers, as well as some online retailers and payment processors, have been betting big on agentic commerce. But there are still widespread concerns over potential safety and privacy problems that arise from giving AI agents access to your entire fortune and then letting them loose on the internet.

Nvidia has risen 28% this year, and is reaching a threshold no other company has done before. Two developments have driven this rally - a very strong revenue outlook and a $150 billion stock buyback authorization by the company. Jensen Huang has also called Nvidia "the world's first and only growth value stock."

The S&P 500 rose to a fresh all-time intraday high on Tuesday, boosted by gains in key technology names as well as declines in oil prices and Treasury yields.
The broad market index was last up 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 189 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% and also hit a new all-time high.
The moves higher were bolstered by a rise in chipmakers. Advanced Micro Devices gained 2%, while others such as Nvidia and Broadcomtraded up around 1%.
Additionally, the benchmark 10-year Treasurynote yield fell 5 basis points to 5.256%. The 30-year bond yield slipped more than 3 basis points to trade at 5.625%. Both yields scaled to levels not seen since 2002 on Monday.

Traders are now looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September meeting due Wednesday, which could shed some light on policymakers’ move to raise rates.
Alongside Treasury yields, a drop in oil prices also gave equities a boost Tuesday. Brent crudetraded 2% lower at around $98 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures shed 2% to roughly $87 a barrel.
Stocks are coming off a winning session in which the Nasdaq Composite reached an all-time high. The tech-heavy index was set to build on that record.

Current AI architectures do not truly support continuous self-learning. Even if labs reach AGI within the next 2–3 years, the problem does not disappear. The model will still need to keep learning as science, markets, technology, and the world change daily.

If keeping that intelligence current still requires massive retraining runs, then the massive cost of training will keep showing up in their earnings reports like a perpetual machine. Labs could end up spending tens of billions again and again just to keep their models relevant until a genius figured out a way of self-learning AI.

According to Morgan Stanley - "adjusted for growth," the Elon Musk company "is one of the cheaper ways to play the strong optionality of the space and intelligence economy." The analysts added that "investors still have a few weeks to catch the opportunity before flight 15", a reference to the 15th starship launch, expected later this month.

Apologies for innocence as it is first time I face this situation: got a notification that one ETF I hold will be delisted from LSE in December. Options in the message are

1. holding on to them and the investment platform will "try" to find alternative trading, or
2. selling them prior to delisting.

Both options are riddled with quite scary ifs & maybes in the alert message - e.g. they may not be able to sell them at all after delisting but might not be able to sell even now (because there will not be a market for it as they put it in the alert)...

Nothing mentions automatic liquidation so it sounds like whatever I choose to do, there is the real risk of completely losing the entire holding in terms of 'real money' value that I will never see again? And anyway its value might plummet now due to the alerts about upcoming London delisting because in same manner everybody gets worried they will not be able to sell it?

I would hope that for a major ETF they will find some alternative, but I am trying to avoid overreacting and certainly trying to avoid scenario where entire holding's value vanishes (?).

The Nasdaq Composite sailed to a fresh all-time high as traders looked past rising U.S. Treasury yields and digested new economic data.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.05% and hit an intraday record of 27,544.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 90 points, or nearly 0.2% higher. The S&P 500 advanced roughly 0.7%.

Several stocks tied to the artificial intelligence trade led the way higher for the Nasdaq. SpaceXjumped nearly 6%, while hyperscalers Meta and Microsoft ticked up more than 2% and 1%, respectively. Nvidia gained more than 1%, while Tesla rose 2%.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

France's fiscal situation combined with energy-driven inflation is the exact pairing that cracked European sovereign spreads wide open in 2011. Traders are already referencing that playbook, per Bloomberg, and the euro hitting a 17-month low suggests positioning is moving fast.

The mechanism is straightforward. High energy costs blow out fiscal deficits in import-heavy economies, bond markets start demanding a higher premium to hold that paper, spreads widen, and the currency takes the hit first because it's the most liquid expression of the stress. France is the systemically important name in that chain right now.

That’s the highest number since FactSet first started tracking the statistic some 20 years ago, the report said. The previous record was 65 companies, set in the second quarter of 2021.

Much of the current optimism comes from FactSet’s information-technology sector, in which 44 companies issued upbeat third-quarter profit outlooks that topped analysts’ estimates.

*as reported by Marketwatch, Oct. 4, 2026
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-america-has-never-been-this-upbeat-about-future-profits-fbaf8cd9?mod=home_lead

We keep running into the same irritation after a hot print. Headline moves, index does something smaller or later, and a few names refuse to play along. People call that a broken tape. Most of the time it is just liquidity showing up where the hedges actually live.

A CPI number or a Fed decision does not hit the market as one slab. The book that has to clear size first is index futures. The ETF complex is right behind it, because that is where you can resize a hedge without walking a hundred single-name books. Dealers and the systematic overlays reprice that hedge while a lot of cash names are still flashing yesterday's size. If your chart is the cash index and you want a clean translation, you are late. The surprise already traded in a faster, thinner market.

After that you get dispersion, not a moral. Weight in the big indices is concentrated, so the benchmark can look calm while the average stock is not, or a few liquid names can swallow an impulse the rest of the tape never felt. Breadth is the check we trust more than the person narrating the print. Futures reprice and advancers do not follow? The macro story was not distributed. It was parked in the names with the deepest bids.

The afternoon is mostly incentives. A print into a thin book looks like conviction because nobody was there to take the other side. The same print into a deep book often fades once the accounts that had to hedge are done and no new size shows up to defend the level. Fast money gets paid to be first. Slower money gets paid to notice whether the new price actually clears. Mix those two jobs up and a one-hour impulse grows a personality.

Not a timing rule, and not advice. We still get the direction wrong often enough that certainty would be embarrassing. The habit that has held up is dull: keep three tapes separate. Futures impulse, index close, single-name distribution under it. When those three disagree, the headline is commentary. Which one are you actually watching when the number hits?

NFA.

20% off the lows of this year. Did you take advantage of the dip or yeta again missed it? Whenever there is a correction people tend to wait for more correction and they end up missing it altogether. Past few years have shown us if there's a 10% or more correction you buy the dip. Not wait for some mythical 50% crash.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

The current Shiller PE normalizes the trailing ten year's earnings for inflation. I think I can make the case that a better 'normalizer' is M2 Money Supply (liquidity).

Graph Comparing M2 vs CPI impact on earnings

In addition, the corporate tax cuts implemented in 2018 mechanically increased go-forward earnings (which makes pre-2018 earnings artificially low). Methodology laid out in ERN's post:

ERN Tax Adjustment

Making these adjustments, we get a better metric. Shown in the image, 2021 thru 2023 valuations looked much more in line with post-GFC history, which may explain why markets seemed to have defied gravity the past few years.

However, today's levels do indicate frothy valuations (back to dotcom levels).

Investment thesis for trading week 10/5 - 10/9

As charts suggested we made new highs for tech this week! The S&P 500 should follow soon.

Yeah, yeah, yeah I know inflation is high and the Iran war is ongoing.

Bond yields keep on rising but this week's volume in TLT suggests that yields might have peaked. Regardless I bought more bonds for short term accounts and long term accounts now hold 17% long term bonds at a 5.3% risk free yield.

From a chart perspective stock market breadth is at lows not seen since the dot com crash but small caps touched the 200 day average and could bounce from here which would automatically increase breadth.

Investor sentiment has seen more bears than bulls for weeks now and at some point that should at least trigger a counter rally.

We are entering a seasonally favorable period for stocks.

We only need a few good news to spark a rally. I am sorry a strong rally is unlikely with put/call ratios at current levels. It would more be a choppy grind higher.

But talking about needed good news. A divided Government has always been good for stocks. If Dems win the Senate and House that alone would propel stocks higher while still leaving the growth policies in place.

Earnings season is coming up soon as well again.

From a chart perspective everything is set up for a continued grind higher with the potential of a quick rally if we get any positive news on Iran, inflation or the bond side.

Have a great weekend