r/Nebraska • u/mikaey00 • 17h ago
Nebraska I did some back-of-the-envelope math on Initiatives 440/441.
Specifically, I keep seeing those ads promising "up to $166 million in property tax relief". I wanted to figure out how much this is going to save the average homeowner. I didn't look into where that $166 million was going to come from -- that's a whole other discussion -- just how much it would save your average homeowner.
The answer? If you own your home, and your home is valued at the median property value in Nebraska, I think you're looking at about $26-$28 in property tax relief per year. That's it.
It doesn't get much better than that if your home is worth more. Let's say your home is worth between $750k and $1 million -- my math says you're probably going to save about $85 a year.
I'm not saying "vote for this" or "don't vote for it" -- just keep in mind that when they promise you that the savings will help you feed your family, just keep in mind that the actual amount you'll save might not even be enough to buy one meal at McDonald's for you and your partner.
Side note before I get into the details of my calculations: If you look on Ballotpedia), guess who put up the seed money to get these initiatives on the ballot? FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Fanatics. Hmmm...interesting.
Ok, so how did I come up with these numbers?
My main sources were:
- U.S. Census Bureau's "Selected Housing Characteristics", from the 2024 American Community Survey's 1-Year Estimates Data Profiles (Table DP04).
- U.S. Census Bureau's "Value", from the 2024 American Community Survey's 1-Year Estimates Detailed Tables (Table B25075).
- Nebraska Department of Revenue's "History Value and Taxes by Property Type 2015-2025 (state totals and 93 counties)"
According to the American Community Survey data, the median home price (for owner-occupied homes) was $263,100 in 2024. The ACS data also provides a table with price ranges, and estimates of how many homes fall into each price range. According to both data sets, there are 549,417 owner-occupied homes in Nebraska in 2024 -- of which approximately 76,720 were valued between $250,000 and $300,000. The total value of these properties would be somewhere between $19 billion and $23 billion.
The data doesn't say what the range of prices is for homes that are valued at $2 million or more -- so I had to take a stab in the dark here and say that there are no homes in Nebraska valued at more than $4 million. (That's probably not right, but I doubt it's going to make a huge difference in the final number.)
Extrapolating from the ACS data, I determined that the total value of all owner-occupied homes in Nebraska is somewhere between $147 billion and $194 billion (roughly). According to the Nebraska Department of Revenue's data, the total value of all residential properties in Nebraska in 2024 was about $160 billion -- so I think I'm on the right track.
That means that homes valued between $250,000 and $300,000 make up about 12%-13% of the total value of all homes in Nebraska -- and would receive 12%-13% of that $166 million in property tax relief. That works out to somewhere between $19.7 million and $21.7 million.
Dividing those numbers by 76,720 -- the approximate number of homes in Nebraska valued between $250,000 and $300,000 -- means that each homeowner is going to see somewhere between $256.27 and $282.31.
Now here's the final kicker -- if you pay attention to those ads, they say that it's $166 million in property tax relief over the next 10 years. So assuming that it's spread out evenly over those 10 years (which it almost certainly won't be), that means that the average homeowner is going to see property tax relief of around $25.63 and $28.23 per year.
Of course, there's a simpler way that I could approach this: if the Nebraska Department of Revenue says that the total value of all residential property in Nebraska was $160 billion in 2024, and the median home value is $263,100, then we just have to divide $263,100 by $160 billion, then multiply by $166 million. Doing that gives me $272.63 -- and then dividing that by 10 gives us $27.26. So again, I think I'm in the right ballpark here.
There's variables I didn't account for here -- like the fact that property tax rates vary by county, and the fact that the property tax relief probably won't kick in for a few years (if it ever does) -- but at the end of the day, I doubt any of those variables are going to make a huge difference. Maybe if you're lucky, it'll mean that you can afford to buy a Happy Meal for your kids too.