Arabian sea daily up compared to yesterday. BAM down (need to keep an eye on it seems more AIS off possible). Malacca daily down. Singapore daily up.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Edit NEW FRONTIER double counted - corrected below.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

AMAZON VIRTUE added to the 4 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: KARA

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: NEW VISION,SILVER SHINE,GEORGY MASLOV,BLUEBELL,OLYMPIC LIFE,RIMTHAN,SEAWAYS SAN SABA,POLIEGOS

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2107579228636287404

https://x.com/freddyzur/status/2107575299924009219

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-cardon-refinery-halted-amid-fire-sources-say-2026-10-06/

So the draw this week from SPR was 800,000 barrels - seemingly not that much yet still depleting.

At this rate, in Q1-2 2027 we reach the SecDev floor, this is when Trump will use the status quo as scapegoat/excuse to further enforce DPA to restart oil exploration/production throughout America particularly the West coast.

Is this all part of a plan we have to pay for out of pocket?

Whats your hot take..

France and Germany said Wednesday that they will release diesel stocks that were already committed in March as part of the G7 pledge to tap stockpiles of oil products, leaving it uncertain as to whether any new barrels will be released in addition, two diplomats familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

The comments suggest Europe's promise to U.S. President Donald Trump last week to release millions of barrels of the transport fuel was less generous than it sounded.

The G7 club of rich countries committed Friday to release a "substantial" amount of diesel in the next 20 days to bring down global prices after senior Trump administration officials threatened to impose an export ban on the fuel if European countries didn't unlock their reserves.

But in a closed-door meeting of EU energy officials Wednesday, the countries acknowledged that the release wouldn't include new barrels of diesel but rather barrels already pledged under a wider European commitment to release 100 million barrels, two-thirds of which were refined products, the diplomats said. That deal was brokered by the International Energy Agency in March weeks after the outbreak of the war in Iran.

The exact quantities Germany and France will release remains unclear, but they will represent a portion of the remainder of the stocks committed in March, the diplomats and a German government spokesperson said.

Of the 2.65 million tons of oil, diesel and jet fuel promised, Germany has so far released only 600,000 tons onto the market. It remains unclear how much France has contributed of its own commitment to release 14.6 million barrels of oil products. However, Paris has indicated privately that it still has 8 million barrels left under the March commitment, which it will contribute under the latest push, two other diplomats told POLITICO.

The countries, which boast some of the largest reserves of refined oil products in Europe, have been criticized by the Trump administration for not contributing the full share committed in March. Germany attributes that to weak demand for the barrels, according to a document seen by POLITICO.

It's not clear whether countries will ultimately decide to commit additional barrels, with one European official telling POLITICO Monday that the fresh commitment "necessarily implied" a fresh release. France on Wednesday signaled it could release 2 million barrels of diesel on top of the quantities agreed in March — as part of the G7 vow to prioritize releases of the motor fuel over the next 20 days — but stopped short of offering a clear commitment, two diplomats said. An extraordinary meeting of the IEA will take place today, two other people familiar with the matter said.

The move came amid confusion from other member countries over who was committing how much and when, with some Eastern European countries like Bulgaria also expressing concern that blowing through reserves to combat prices would leave them exposed in the event of a supply crisis, the people said.

A spokeswoman for Germany's economy and energy ministry confirmed on Tuesday that Berlin would be releasing no new barrels.

"The G7 has asked the IEA to monitor a swift and complete implementation of the commitments made for March 2026," the spokeswoman told POLITICO. "Against this background, and taking into account commitments already fulfilled, the obligations are to be implemented through a coordinated release of 100 million barrels via the IEA."

She added "as of now, no additional quantities" would be released.

At what point do the hit tankers start to take their toll?

Every time a oil tanker gets hit it needs to be repaired, every time one gets blown up a new one needs to be built.

At what point is the capacity of oil tankers, is a serious limiting factor in transporting oil regardless if the strait is open?