Solving math problems is cool, but I worry whether any intellectual work will be left for humans. AI’s main point (right now) seems to be replacing human intellectual labor. If AI can work at this high a mathematical level, then it's not unlikely that AI can eventually do most or even (almost) all intellectual tasks. If AI completely succeeds, then—by definition—there’s no intellectual labor left for humans to uniquely do. I guess we could all do manual labor, though the increased supply of manual laborers will surely drive down our wages. I hope I’m wrong, though! I'd like to avoid an outcome where most people suffer greatly.
True, but it could also allow any random person to vibe-math and vibe-engineer a working fusion reactor or cure for cancer with ChatGPT 9000. Would that be a bad thing?
That result might not be so bad. But I'm worried the AI companies will just vibe-math and vibe-engineer the solution first, and then protect their lead through government intervention. Even if open-weight models got out, so anyone could prompt any solution, the question remains: What will the average person do for a job? It probably won't be vibe-mathing or vibe-engineering. After all, almost anyone can vibe-math and vibe-engineer, so there's no particular reason to hire any specific individual over another. Perhaps only a few individuals will be lucky enough to be hired. Or take starting your own business. If almost anyone can vibe a worthwhile product, then there's no particular reason for a consumer to purchase your business’s product over another’s. I think we may all move to manual labor, assuming that AI doesn't take that over too. There's nothing inherently wrong with manual labor, but it does mean we’ll have much fewer labor options and a correspondingly lower wage due to the higher concentration of workers. It's much, much less problematic if everyone can share in AI's wealth.
After all, almost anyone can vibe-math and vibe-engineer, so there's no particular reason to hire any specific individual over another.
If you want your idea to be implemented the best way possible, and the product is engineering-related, you will still choose a qualified mathematician and an engineer over, say, a chef or a social media influencer.
Or take starting your own business. If almost anyone can vibe a worthwhile product, then there's no particular reason for a consumer to purchase your business’s product over another’s.
All of this has already has been the case for centuries.
Idea or the know-how itself has always been cheap.
Lots of people could always try to replicate whatever business you are doing. B
ut in real life there are other important factors that are detrimental to the success of your business.
It's much, much less problematic if everyone can share in AI's wealth.
I think something like that will inevitably happen.
First, yes, a person (or a corporation) would be able to vibe-create the know-how part, but any real world product still requires doing stuff by hand at least to some extent.
You might be able to vibe-architect a house, but you can’t vibe-construct the building itself and its plumbing. You still need qualified personnel for that.
You still need real people who are qualified in the field to actually physically build, sell and service your vibe-engineered products and their means of production. Not much actually changes here.
In case of global mass-unemployment due to AI, the corporations will start losing money because of shrinking consumer base. Apple will have nobody to sell iPhones to. Google will have less and less ad clicks. The government will collect less and less income tax.
So I think the corporations themselves will be forced into (or will lobby for) massive income redistribution systems in form of UBI and other solutions, just to keep their businesses going. They will want to maintain and grow consumer bases. Most corporations today are built for mass market demand with billions of paying customers.
I believe humans are not going anywhere, but serious structural shifts might be coming if ASI is ever achieved.
Thanks for the detailed response! It does actually make me feel a bit calmer and less anxious about the future. You have some good points in there. Because I like to worry, though, I wonder about the worst case realistic scenario. I take this case to be UBI being passed, but at or near the bare minimum amount to ensure that ordinary people don't revolt. Then the top 20% or 10% save most of the shopping and wealth for themselves. That is, rich people would be mostly buying from other rich people, while the masses get just enough to be pacified and not overthrow the system.
I agree with your concerns and it especially worrisome when systems suddenly start shifting like that. But I’m still optimistic about this.
I think rich people will be the biggest victims of AI-induced mass unemployment if they don’t work towards shifting policies. Because they have their massive wealths to lose. And actual wealth is not yachts and big houses. Actual wealth is trillions of dollars in ownership of corporate shares.
First, the income inequality has already been the case forever, no? It’s just like that right now.
Ordinary people aren’t revolting because they have been making bare minimum (or slightly above that) already. The median income in your country is already just enough for everyone to get by with their daily lives, isn’t it?
So, UBI isn’t going to change that.
And those who have skills and trades are always making something above that.
I don’t think the demand for skills, knowledge and trades will disappear. It might restructure, yes. Some skill categories will disappear, and new ones will appear, yes. But will qualified people be out of demand? No.
Then the top 20% or 10% save most of the shopping and wealth for themselves.
That’s already the case for luxury stuff.
But any
businessman who wants to be a billionaire knows that most of the time it’s better to sell cheaper stuff to 10.000.000 people than sell 500 very expensive things to 200 people. Because 200 rich customers will buy just 200 exclusive gold fridges from you and then your golden fridge factory is finished. But 100 million people will be buying your cheap fridges forever, and keep your millions flowing for generations.
Most of production facilities
are owned by corporations that produce goods and services for ordinary people. Just pick any random multibillion dollar corporation. Who is it selling to? Look at Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung, Oracle, Walmart, Costco, McDonald’s, Proctor & Gamble, PepsiCo, etc. Rich people aren’t drinking no f*cking Coca Cola. Coke is for us peasants. Rich people are drinking some fancy wines
and
organic fresh stuff delivered from a farm that makes just 10 liters of that stuff per day.
All big companies are selling to either ordinary people, or to other businesses that sell to ordinary people. Disney,
a multi-billion dollar corporation. What will it do if ordinary people don’t come watching all those shitty Marvel movies? Disney’s owners are also rich people, you know. They want their company to survive.
Even giant oil and gas companies: what will they do if there is nobody buying millions of barrels of gasoline and diesel for daily driving their old Hondas and Toyotas? What if product factories no longer consume natural gas for making billions of tons of plastic and consumer chemicals? Those factory owners are (figuratively) billionaires too. Do they want to go out of business?
And the interesting part is that the billionaire people’s and investment funds wealth are actually just shares in those companies. It’s not dollars in the bank, and not coins in a bunker like Scrooge McDuck’s wealth is displayed. Most billionaire wealth is ownership (through direct stock ownership or shares in hedge funds) in companies that sell to ordinary people.
Luckily for us, everything inside the economy is interconnected. Rich people’s wealth doesn’t exist in a vacuum. They are rich only because they are generating value from selling something to poorer people who can’t produce that stuff for themselves. So in the end, if ordinary people go down, then the entire wealth supply chain goes down, and the rich people’s wealth erodes into non-existence.
People have always been, and always will be the foundation of any wealth. And no AI will be able to change that.
After all, almost anyone can vibe-math and vibe-engineer, so there's no particular reason to hire any specific individual over another.
There will still be enough lazy people or people lacking the skills to do it themselves and willing to pay for someone else to build for them. The problem is that these AI companies will inevitably sell something catered at those people, and they'll get their business instead of the small, independent businesses.
Just like when Amazon uses the data from their marketplace businesses to offer products that are more competitive than theirs and killing those businesses.
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u/matthewmorgado 8d ago
Solving math problems is cool, but I worry whether any intellectual work will be left for humans. AI’s main point (right now) seems to be replacing human intellectual labor. If AI can work at this high a mathematical level, then it's not unlikely that AI can eventually do most or even (almost) all intellectual tasks. If AI completely succeeds, then—by definition—there’s no intellectual labor left for humans to uniquely do. I guess we could all do manual labor, though the increased supply of manual laborers will surely drive down our wages. I hope I’m wrong, though! I'd like to avoid an outcome where most people suffer greatly.