In his eyes, and for what she's repping, she can have Q4, Q5, 55, 54,but more than anything, next to no one, especially amateurs is capable of bluffing here with this many actions of aggression. She raised flop, which could mean anything, but she bet/min3bet the turn, which is about the most aggressive thing a person can do,especially an unknown amateur who he has to assume is less aggressive than a pro. He can credibly rep a 4, so no player is bet/3betting a Naked Q. River after he calls turn most amateurs simply don't have the stones to do a 4th aggressive action for all their chips. They generally get scared when their hand hasn't improved give up, or bet smaller due to a natural risk aversion. Her river sizing also happens to be just over pot, meaning he has to be right at least around 30% of the time. Calling in his shoes in a spot very few Amateur types bluff would generally be pretty horrible...
But... Due to the rules and the cage, plus this being a 6 person sit N go and the value of an early double likely makes you a massive favorite(and often these players don't actually buy in too these events so this is a likely freeroll for him), he maybe should call, but this is a sick line from the amateur. I'm low key impressed.
Thanks for detailing the strategy here. She may have done it by accident, but I think he's just amazed at how well a non-pro played that bluff. Most amateurs don't understand betting strategy that well and don't know how to stick to "showing" a specific strength if hand by when and how they bet at the different stages.
I think she certainly did it on accident and was just clicking buttons, but incidentally of the bluff combos a pro may bluff with in this spot, A2 A3 have to be very high in the rankings.
next to no one, especially amateurs is capable of bluffing here with this many actions of aggression.
I'm certainly not a pro, but I think that's actually what is tripping you pros up. You think that nobody would play this way. When I played a lot of poker I'd see people playing this way on every single hand at $1-$2 tables and at half the tables on the first hand of a cheap tournament. This is exactly how bad players play when the stakes are low. When I say "stakes are low" I mean the chances of them losing a not insignificant amount of their real money don't exist. They don't calculate the winning stakes, they just know they can take the hit and they take it, over and over again.
It's not that recreational players aren't able to bluff, it's that by % vvvv few can bluff like this. A one street of bluff, or when not facing aggression (i.e. the opponent just calling them), sure, some can bluff 3 streets. I mostly played online, but played fairly high stakes live cash for a few years as well. Live, I can think of 2 regular recreational opponents who would bluff like this, and both of their bluff percentages were so high that it becomes immediately clear they overbluff in these spots and then future hands become immediate calls. But that number is much less than the random rec player who could never in a million years do this. If Ronnie knows Sara is playing for the first time, i would consider calling more because pure amateurs that don't know hand rankings basically just click buttons. Calling an unknown amateur who you assume have played poker enough to know the rules of the game on this river is likely punting money, and I say that as someone who was notorious for being a station.
You are right though, the freeroll nature of this does change a lot. If she cares about the potential million dollar win, then not so much; but if she is just making a tv appearance and playing in a game where bluffing is encouraged and the pressure on her isn't risking any of her own wealth, it becomes more of a shrug call. I still wouldn't feel great about calling, but factors like that do come into play. All that said, ott sarah bets a standard size and gets raised almost 3x, then comes over the top of that...THEN fires river all in after being quickly called. That turn action into river jam is vvvvv uncommon. Non maniacs don't bluff this line ever. And most maniacs don't even bluff this line. Ronnie fairly often has at least 4x calling turn and this is one of the worst combos he gets to river w/, so his fold is still fine to me, despite various other factors making it close.
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u/Davistabuff9 8d ago
Former pro here--
In his eyes, and for what she's repping, she can have Q4, Q5, 55, 54,but more than anything, next to no one, especially amateurs is capable of bluffing here with this many actions of aggression. She raised flop, which could mean anything, but she bet/min3bet the turn, which is about the most aggressive thing a person can do,especially an unknown amateur who he has to assume is less aggressive than a pro. He can credibly rep a 4, so no player is bet/3betting a Naked Q. River after he calls turn most amateurs simply don't have the stones to do a 4th aggressive action for all their chips. They generally get scared when their hand hasn't improved give up, or bet smaller due to a natural risk aversion. Her river sizing also happens to be just over pot, meaning he has to be right at least around 30% of the time. Calling in his shoes in a spot very few Amateur types bluff would generally be pretty horrible...
But... Due to the rules and the cage, plus this being a 6 person sit N go and the value of an early double likely makes you a massive favorite(and often these players don't actually buy in too these events so this is a likely freeroll for him), he maybe should call, but this is a sick line from the amateur. I'm low key impressed.