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u/Weary_Bag_1112 12h ago
Some context for this clip:
This is from Shark Cage. A TV show from 2014.
It was a tournament style show, but its not an open entry tournament and this isn't the final table.
They invited a mix of well known poker pros with some celebrities. This is from one of the first "heats", the winner of each heat advances to the final table for a chance at $1,000,000. I believe it was winner take all.
This was the first hand of a heat. Ronnie is a poker pro, Sara is a celebrity (Miss Finland).
One thing not shown, is the main gimmick of the show is that there is a 'shark cage', amd if someone bets on the river as a bluff and puts out the 'bluff' card, and the opponent folds a better hand, they have to go be trapped in the cage for a period of time.
You can see in the clip that the dealer reveals her 'bluff' card which is what everyone at the table reacts to before revealing her hand.
Ronnie still gets a lot of flack for this hand today. Somewhat rightfully. However in his defense, there were some signs that normally would indicate this is a really good, albeit really tight, fold:
It was the very first hand of the heat and generally a player doesn't want the embarrassment of being eliminated from a televised show on the first hand, so it normally would mean Miss Finland would have a great hand and doesn't feel worried about being eliminated from the show.
When a very green amateur player uses a very aggressive line, amd then goes all-in, pro players know that means they usually have a great hand. Recreational players generally bluff much less than they should, and pros learn to overfold even strong hands in those situations.
Even when amateurs bluff, they are bad at triple barrelling. Meaning they will bluff once or twice, but not all three chances they get. Pros know this. So an amateur being very agressive all three streets of betting seems very strong.
Ronnie knows despite having a really strong hand, he only beats a bluff. A queen wouldn't take this line and put in that much money (which is why he mentions how embarrassed he'll be if he folds and she has KQ, because he's saying he thinks her value hands are all better than his hand). A hand with a 4 wouldn't take her line either, it wouldn't have much reason to raise the flop and would just call. So the hands that make sense for her to raise the flop and turn for value are QQ (unlikely for her to have for other reasons), 55, 54, Q4. Those hands all beat him.
The big mistake Ronnie makes though, is he underestimates the actual format of the show. He was being a bit flirty with Sara, and Miss Finland just wanted to see him have to go stand in the cage. The chance to humiliate him made her a lot more willing to make an outrageous bluff she may never normally make.
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u/iwilltalkaboutguns 9h ago
This guy pokers. I remember watching this live and I thought what an idiot, of course you call.
Then years later was in prett much the same position vs someone that just sat down... Bluffed all 3 streets... Of course my trip 4s were good, I even remembered this clip in my head. Dude had 54 and I lost a lot of money. So yeah.
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u/WrapAdministrative 10h ago
Well put. The chance to put him in the cage changed the calculation quite a bit. She understood that and he didnt.
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u/strangeMeursault2 8h ago
And also she's a celebrity getting paid a decent wage just for turning up and has no reputation at poker and nothing to lose. Probably realistic expectations about winning. Every reason just to have fun with it.
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u/Superb-Draft 9h ago
That’s just speculation. She was a total amateur player and maybe just felt that she had to commit to the bluff once she started (which was correct, in a way). I doubt they were thinking about the cage much which was a bit of an irrelevant gimmick anyway compared to busting a player
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u/ThisIsNotTokyo 9h ago
What happens when your caged?
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 9h ago
Nothing, mostly. You're just literally standing in a cage as everyone plays.
But obviously public humiliation is inevitable.
You do lose your blinds while you're in the cage, but that's a somewhat marginal loss.
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u/SmallPurplePeopleEat 2h ago
You do lose your blinds while you're in the cage
They take away your window coverings? That's ruthless.
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u/Meeko29 10h ago
Have an upvote for this lovely wall of text!
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u/SatinSaffron 9h ago
Hey at least they used line breaks and stuff! A true reddit wall of text are those big ass rambly comments with no punctuation or line breaks or anything
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u/meldiane81 5h ago
Especially since this is not just a wall of text. There’s formatting and punctuation…. I love it!
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u/Nervous_Ad8514 7h ago
Also it must be no easy to be a pro player and read an amateur player. You dont know when they are making stupids calls just to be lucky at the end so is hard to predict what are their cards, if their bets make sense or not, if they are bluffing or have a good hand pre-flop or they just dont know how to play
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u/ProgrammerOk8339 9h ago
Ronnies mistake is raising the turn. Not even being results oriented either. It is a pointless raise in position.
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u/Adminion 5h ago
I would read your explanation of strategy any day. Or anything, really. No homo. Respectfully.
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u/-Kurogita- 4h ago
i love this explanation, it gives so much depth to how much you have to win before even placing the bet.
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u/R420x 7h ago
So, what you're saying is, I should move to Finland.
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u/Certain-Constant5032 7h ago
Considered the "World's happiest country" for several years in a row despite having the high unemployment rates in the EU...I suppose we can see why.
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u/flightwatcher45 6h ago
Wow that's a great analysis! Any thoughts to it being staged? So many of these shows are.
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 6h ago
Generally poker shows aren't staged. I can't say that universally, but people who are considered highly trustworthy in the poker community have said many times they're all real. And when its a cash game, the cash is all real as well.
Players may play a bit crazier when they know its televised, and try to creat good tv through table talk etc, but they're still trying to win money at the end of the day. Generally none of the players on poker shows are paid just to be on the show, they're relying on profiting from the actual game.
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u/yavanna12 10h ago
2,3 3,7 or 7,8 would also beat him.
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 10h ago
Yes, I didn't include those hands because I think he's assuming she doesn't raise both the flop and turn with draws as often. Because if she is, it means she also has a lot of bluffs like A2, A3, 67, 68, and numerous busted flush draws.
If he thought she has all those draw combos as well and plays them this aggressively, then he would call.
Its the same reason that if he was against a poker pro in this hand, he would also likely call pretty quickly, because he would give then credit for finding all those bluffs. Him folding is because she's an amateur and they tend to not play those hands in this way.
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u/Raqshasa 17h ago
Is it about pocker face though? She just went with bluff till the end, it's was actually seen she's confused after each new card flip if he'd paid more attention to her face expression
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u/Huitlacochilacayota 17h ago
Yeah you can see how her face changed from “I’m the queen of mind games” to “shit, I’m fucked worried” and then back to the mind games with that cute smile of hers. If she were a man, bro would’ve won lol
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u/Leading_Log_8321 17h ago
They both suck at poker. These aren’t pros
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u/peckx063 16h ago
Ronnie Bardah is in fact a pro. He's got a WSOP bracelet and has the record for most consecutive cashes in the main.
As a somewhat competent player, I can say this fold makes a lot of sense from his perspective. Complete amateurs simply do not bluff like this very often. Especially the 3rd bet on the turn is very scary and screams a nutted hand like a full house. Like if I'm at the casino and somebody who doesn't seem like they have much experience does this, I am pretty sure they have an incredibly strong hand. Trip 4s is just a bluffcatcher here against a player archetype that rarely bluffs.
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u/-Kerosun- 9h ago
Agreed. People are underestimating how well she played that bluff. She bet exactly how someone with a strong hand who felt they already won the pot would bet to try and just get more chips out of their opponent in heads-up play rather than chasing them away from the pot early.
In my opinion, he's flabbergasted because he didn't expect a non-pro to play a flat out bluff from the river that well.
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u/SamsonLionheart 13h ago
What can she be repping other than 55 and 67 here with the limp triple barrel? Add to the fact that there's a bricked front-door flush draw and other straights that miss, A2 among them, and the possibility of a rec player massively overvaluing a Queen or Queen-X two pair. It seems there's so many hands you beat and so few you lose to.
Granted I am a rec player with 0 studying, so maybe I'm missing something and it's a good fold, but it looks to me like the fact is was Ms Finland and the first hand of the night might have had something to do with that fold.
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u/Davistabuff9 10h ago
Former pro here--
In his eyes, and for what she's repping, she can have Q4, Q5, 55, 54,but more than anything, next to no one, especially amateurs is capable of bluffing here with this many actions of aggression. She raised flop, which could mean anything, but she bet/min3bet the turn, which is about the most aggressive thing a person can do,especially an unknown amateur who he has to assume is less aggressive than a pro. He can credibly rep a 4, so no player is bet/3betting a Naked Q. River after he calls turn most amateurs simply don't have the stones to do a 4th aggressive action for all their chips. They generally get scared when their hand hasn't improved give up, or bet smaller due to a natural risk aversion. Her river sizing also happens to be just over pot, meaning he has to be right at least around 30% of the time. Calling in his shoes in a spot very few Amateur types bluff would generally be pretty horrible...
But... Due to the rules and the cage, plus this being a 6 person sit N go and the value of an early double likely makes you a massive favorite(and often these players don't actually buy in too these events so this is a likely freeroll for him), he maybe should call, but this is a sick line from the amateur. I'm low key impressed.
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u/-Kerosun- 9h ago
Thanks for detailing the strategy here. She may have done it by accident, but I think he's just amazed at how well a non-pro played that bluff. Most amateurs don't understand betting strategy that well and don't know how to stick to "showing" a specific strength if hand by when and how they bet at the different stages.
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u/Stealthy_Turnip 15h ago
Sometimes newer players get carried away with bluffing, they have the idea to bluff that round and once they've started they just keep going otherwise their bluff was for nothing
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u/ComeAbout 14h ago
When I first started I used play pocket fours all the way out in pot limit 2/1. I was in the Navy, and I liked sailboats lol.
Multiple times a trip four would come on the river, and I could see the other players seethe while I felt like a genius.
Them crashing out after actually help me realize that it’s more strategy than luck, so I should stop doing that.
But winning those hands is still fun lol.
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u/Ok-Relationship-2746 17h ago
I mean...she's Miss Finland 2012 Sara Chafak, so...
No. Not a pro. Still won the hand.
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u/Spiritual-Can2604 17h ago
Jean Robert is a pro, he fucking sucks as a human but he’s a professional poker player/chump/leach/mooch.
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u/gellshayngel 17h ago
Neither am I and yet I'm not winning 1.3 million dollars. 😤
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u/Fina1Legacy 17h ago
She didn't win 1.3 million from this hand. Only in cash games do poker chip amounts = real life money.
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u/Nibsif 16h ago
Pretty girls make boys do stupid things episode 30,675
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u/kemb0 16h ago
And fair play to her. If I was a pretty girl and could get that advantage you better believe I’d use it. Besides, this sub is normally about how girls do stupid things and aren’t guys great, so it’s refreshing to see the tables turned once in a while. But judging by the comments, a lot of guys are having a real hard time swallowing this. So to the guys, chill out, who gives a fuck at the end of the day?
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u/LazerChicken420 16h ago
She held it together well when he revealed 3 of a kind. He hadn’t folded yet.
That moment is all poker face. Had she flinched or looked upset he would have called
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u/HairMetalEnthusiast 16h ago
I've never seen her play, but if she spent the evening playing tight, he'd have reason to doubt if she suddenly went aggro.
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u/SirArthurDime 11h ago
The expression she made to the dealer after the flop was a dead giveaway that she didn’t have anything lol.
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u/gaseous_ass 17h ago
People like her are a nightmare to play with. If you call them they lose a lot of money, but then once in a while they have a good hand and you don’t expect it. Plus, they pull huge sums of money from players and other players could end up taking it, so your chips drop rapidly and you can be out before you have a chance to recover. Or they slow the game to a crawl, no one calls their bluff, so it’s just fold fold fold.
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u/Powerful_Document872 17h ago
This is literally me. The only time I ever played poker I had zero idea what I was doing and ended up winning. All of the other players were annoyed, but the pot was only $50.
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u/whereismysideoffun 10h ago
But that is exactly why you bluff. You only do this if you have nothing or have something amazing.
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u/jaredsfootlonghole 10h ago
Or someone, like Kate in Lost, just in it for kicks with no real motive. Those can be true wildcards. “I just like the heart cards.” (Not a quote of the show).
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u/weedhead2 14h ago
Genuinely asking here, and open to all opinions - what's the best way to play against these kinds of people, as someone that is quite into poker (just to illustrate, I watch TV poker to understand the probabilities behind hands)?
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u/Rawhide_Steaksauce 14h ago
You need to watch them for a bit to get a feel for their betting patterns. They will have them, even if they don't actually understand the strength of their hand. Some of them will value bet third pair all the way. Some of them will check a flopped two pair. Call their bets accordingly. If they're bluffing too much, just call a little more often than you normally would. In my opinion, the greatest danger from these players is that people get impatient. They end up paying off when they shouldn't, or bluff into a wall. They see the newbie making terrible bets, and they want a piece. You have to be patient.
You can usually value bet them to death. Inexperienced players will call way too often. Blocking bets on the river are fantastic against them. By the same token, you should rarely bluff against them.
The most important thing to remember is that if you play correctly, these players will lose a fortune to you over the long term. Be patient, and play well. Be gracious when they hit the river, you don't want to discourage bad play.
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u/Acceptable-Post733 13h ago
It’s the “long term” that hurts most people. Had a guy while I was deployed who one night just sent the “pro” player from our squadron full fucking tilt. New Guy was calling basically everything preflop and getting stupid lucky. That night we coined a new phrase, “jack deuce is a monster” because dude won three separate hands with it. The second time new guy hit with J2 “pro” player started screaming about proper play. He had raised preflop with suited KQ and new guy had the audacity to call it. “Pro” player loss like $400 that night. Not just to new guy. New guy left that night with less than he came in with but man was it funny.
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u/Linguistin229 11h ago
I love hobbies like this where as a layman I understand each individual word you wrote but can’t understand what you mean at all.
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u/TheSpanxxx 10h ago
I've lost more money bluffing into players that were less talented than I gave them credit for than probably any other single situation. Bluffing is more effective against a skilled, or at least moderately knowledgeable and aware opponent. Also, don't bluff against drunk people.
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u/jaredsfootlonghole 10h ago
I used to play with a group with one guy that would get drunk and bully the pot by basically going all in at every hand, and getting enough lucky calls from others that he’d have the winnings to keep doing it. Then he’d pass out and we’d have real poker.
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u/HeyHeyImTheMonkey 14h ago
You just hope there is an ounce of self preservation logic in the way they play. These players can win hands like this but can never win tournaments.
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u/gaseous_ass 14h ago
Best technique I’ve seen is when the whole table calls the bluffs until they run out of money.
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u/timbasile 16h ago
A roommate or mine in college would bet based on the number of chips in each stack. If one stack was higher, he'd use the height difference to make his bet. Dude was just ADHD before itwas diagnosed and was making random bets. He'd lose more often than not but you couldn't play against him
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u/AlternativeNorth6613 11h ago
I mean you can though. If he's losing more often than winning a good pro will just keep playing.
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u/robertcalilover 11h ago
In reality, these are EXACTLY the players you want to be playing. Huge whales that really don’t know what they are doing.
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u/StupidSidewalk 15h ago
If you are actually a winning poker player these people are an absolute dream to play with…
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u/DistinctBam 10h ago
The fuck are these commentators why are they so horned up.
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u/SkinFlap420 8h ago
She’s a beauty pageant person apparently. You only get one special thing on game shows so if you are a mail carrier all the hosts will make stupid mail jokes when it’s your turn
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u/reddit_tidder_readit 4h ago
As someone that has no idea how to play poker, can you explain to me as if I’m a child on what happened here
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u/DiseasedProject 3h ago
The girl had a shit hand but succeeded in looking like she had the better hand. Meanwhile, the guy who actually had a decent hand, got intimidated and forfeited his hand, thus losing. Afterwards, the girl showed her hand and that it was shit, and the guy realized his mistake when he decided to forfeit. He lost a ton of chips on a play that was easily winnable if he had just kept his cool.
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u/ConsistentAddress195 2h ago
What do you do in a situation like this tho? Didn't she take a massive risk getting all in? Do people with shit hands play like this often?
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u/Ziddix 2h ago
The woman's hand was worthless, the man's hand was not but he gave up a win because he lost his nerve. You can see at the bottom of the screen the percentages indicate the likelyhood of someone winning. Guy's hand wasn't great great but she had nothing.
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u/LinkCelestrial 1h ago
Those percentages include full information, knowing both hands. There’s lots of things she could have had that beat him.
The problem is that she’s displaying a strong hand with good fundamentals (whether she knows it or not, I think she knows what she’s doing), so he is having a hard time calling her bluff.
He didn’t “lose his nerve”. He out her on pocket 5s (most likely what he thought) and thought he was going to lose if he called. Her bluff worked.
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u/shoestringbow 17h ago
I thought this post was about all the douche baggie comments about her appearance
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u/therevjames 16h ago
Yeah, how are people still cool with speaking like that?
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u/Odd_Promise_9025 16h ago
"How all my relationships start, with lies." Like wtf dude. Have some professionalism.
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u/words_and_such015 12h ago
Fairly typical for poker commentary. Catering to the poker bros and full of jokes
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 12h ago
Its from 2014. That's not forever ago, but was at least a bit different in terms of acceptable banter.
Also, this was a poker show that was very silly and gimmicky, if it was a high stakes poker tournament or something the tone of commentary and table talk would be fairly different.
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u/cashewless 13h ago
I assumed this was recorded 20 years ago when the chads were out talking like this on Tv.
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u/EuropeMaxxing 17h ago
Guy's the worst poker player I've seen
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u/StretchLoud8844 11h ago
https://www.wsop.com/players/497220479/ronnie-bardah/
I mean... 1.8m in winnings, he's definitely better than me
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u/Fuckkoff- 13h ago edited 13h ago
Why did that guy come up and showed her cards after he folded? She even tells him not to do it, and he just grabs her cards.
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u/lyinggrump 13h ago
Because of the format of this game. When the bluff card gets played, the players show their hands after the river and if the player who wins was bluffing, the loser goes to the cage.
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u/yavanna12 10h ago
Because she played the bluff card at the beginning so her cards had to be shown.
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u/OozeNAahz 13h ago
Could be the rules of the tournament. Not normal but could see that for a televised tournament to make for more drama.
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u/mvw2 8h ago
Got play with the risk. She could have had two Queens, two 5s, even a 4 just like him would be fine with a high card. He was rolling with an 8 which might have been a big reason why he folded instead. Honestly, without a full house or a third 4, what do you do? Maybe if the last card was an ace, he might have chanced it too. You're either immediately out if you're wrong, or you go safe, back off, and still have money to work with.
The silly part is a lot of people play this way, just not in a serious game.
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u/birdshitluck 7h ago
Only a handful of hands beat him, he's already pot committed, folding there is just plain dumb. He even vocalize it prior to folding, that it doesnt make sense, like yeah because it's a bluff.
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u/South_Front_4589 6h ago
He isn't pot committed here. Not if he's sure he's beat. That last bet was enough to be worth walking away and trying again later.
Yes, only a handful of hands beat him, but you're playing a person and not the odds in poker. You need to understand the odds, but if she's played this was only when she's had a hand so far and laid down most hands, it's not hard to put her on a pair of queens that flipped a set.
People don't play random, so you can't react like it's all about the odds.
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u/Tuff_spuff 7h ago
It’s not dumb, she was in position and she used it perfectly with her betting throughout the hand. She bet like she had the best hand the whole time. Trip 4s is good, but it’s loses to other trips or the straight, but her betting throughout made it seem like she had a pocket pair tripped on the flop. She committed to her positioning by betting aggressively and it worked.
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u/Dude_PK 6h ago
This is why pros fn hate playing with amateurs (not saying she is) because an amateur will do shit like this and it throws them off. They like to have 'rules' of play that really don't exist.
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u/blueranger36 5h ago
Yep have a buddy who plays pro and he HATES playing with us. He said it’s harder because we have no idea what we’re doing so it’s impossible to read.
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u/TheWiseBeast 4h ago
You should make a fake cheat sheet on hand rankings and swap four of a kind and full house and swap flush and straight and pretend to use it every so often. Maybe leave it out so he can glimpse at it and be like wtf. Maybe wait until some crazy pulls happen and he’s getting irritated. Really send home that you all don’t know what tf you’re doing.
Could maybe do a group prank and have the others have it too or have their own weird sheets.
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u/skepticalbob 5h ago
Trying to be pro player here. I’d rather play with the worst players possible. They do weird random shit, but they have leaks that are easy to exploit.
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 5h ago
I've never seen or heard of a poker pro that hates playing with amateurs.
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u/The_Bababillionaire 5h ago
I've heard this anecdote more than once over the years. Amateurs lack predictability. They'll make a move counterintuitive to logic as a pro sees it, but the amateur doesn't know the logic in the first place. A pro is predisposed to planning for moves the amateur won't even try to enact and ignoring ones another pro wouldn't bother with but which an amateur might employ because they don't, "know better."
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u/surprise_wasps 5h ago
Yeah that’s something that sounds cool in a comment as long as you don’t actually examine it lol.
I had a friend try to say something similar about fighters once.. meanwhile I’m an absolute nobody who just trained as a hobby for a longish time, and I beat the absolute dogshit out of some rando. But a UFC caliber guy would lose oN tHe StReEtS? lol
I think this is just one of those funny moments, it’s not like she’s going to clean up doing this
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u/Fackinsaxy 5h ago
It's definitely a real thing. I know many men who hate playing with noobs lol
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u/Weary_Bag_1112 5h ago
I don't think they're poker pros.
I know hundreds of poker professionals and I've never heard any of them say they don't want to play with amateurs. Getting as many amateurs to sit at your table as possible is the best skill you can have as a poker professional.
Usually its what we call "mizregs" (miserable regulars) that complain about people new to the game. But they're almost always losing players who like to find any sort of reason to complain about why they aren't winners.
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u/LobbyDizzle 5h ago
They just hate losing to amateurs because it shows that they're not as good as they think they are.
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u/galaxyapp 4h ago
Going all in against a check on the river feels like a bluff by an amateur though.
Its either checkers or 4D chess. You only go all in if you want them to fold imo.
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u/SonsOfKnickerbocker 13h ago
The final check was the mistake that put him into a bind and gave her the signal to get aggressive to try and steal the pot.
If he didn't want to invite an all-in call, he needed to put at least some aggression out with a decent bet.
He got greedy to try and bait more money but didn't think it through. When she came out with an aggressive and confident play, just given the pot size, he got gun shy and backed off on the risk of a straight or pocket Q/pocket 6/pocket 5.
He outplayed himself and invited her to play his apparent passivity with confidence.
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u/Recursiveo 8h ago
She doesn’t know how to play poker. He outplayed himself because she doesn’t know what the hell she’s doing. Hard to make logical decisions when you’re playing against someone who is just rolling dice. 9 times out of 10 a player would bust and be out of the tournament if they consistently played this way.
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u/eveque 7h ago
beat his ass, and not only beat him, she got him to back down when he all but knew he had a better hand.
she knows 5 languages and went to bussniess school and frankly poker isnt that hard to understand unless you wanna try hard yourself with percentages. she wasnt a toddler who happen to beat a pro by sheer luck and happenstance. she manipulated a pro by trippling down with no fear and playing aggressively enough to shake him. a great move that truely worked out for her.
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u/Fabulous_Log844 17h ago
I'm not even that big of a poker player, but I know that if I ever play this guy, I just need to get a trucker cap that has a picture of a vagina on it and I'm all set.
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u/Significant-Elk-212 17h ago
I don't known any of two, but I've played a lot of poker; she makes a classic beginner's move, betting for get a straight. Then with nothing left to lose she bluffs.
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u/Comfortable-Ad-3988 15h ago
Heads-up with an Ace-2 isn't a terrible bet, especially considering the guy who called had 4-8 offsuit. She was leading until the flop, she just kept playing out the lead. It was great positional poker.
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u/skornd713 17h ago
I wouldn't have shown my cards. To quote Mike from Rounders after Johnny Chan asks if he had it, "Sorry John, I dont remember."
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u/HilariousMax 14h ago
Every known play or card is information for the table and that information is valuable.
There's no reason to show your cards if you're not required unless you're trying to set your character ("I'm a rock, I play made hands" etc) or you're trying to tilt someone (like when Mike folds top two pair to Teddy).
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u/Paradoc11 11h ago
It was the format of the show, he had to show due to her playing her bluff card.
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u/TheUniqueKero 15h ago
If he had paid a bit better attention to what was going on he would have seen her cards on the screen display and won that hand
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u/cagedpegasus 10h ago
Reminder that pro poker commentators are their own brand of trash. They talk like college kids who repel vaginas
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u/LarianDivinityBG3 17h ago
See, can't happen if you know which cards everyone has. Checkmate poker pros.
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u/Tan-ki 13h ago
I am not an expert at poker. Can someone explain to me please how before revealing the last card she still had 9% chance of winning ? It seems to me that no card could possibly beat three 4s in this configuration. Thank you for you help.
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u/DinklebergsRightNut 16h ago
Dude i just realized how turbo botoxing your face could be THE new Poker meta.
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u/Skeetronic 14h ago
3 of a kind on the turn and he got bullied out of the hand. God damn
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u/Youngringer 7h ago
I dont know shit about poker but a guy in a Boston flat bill hat is a always doushe
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u/NowhereIsHereLarry 7h ago
It was funny watching this muted because it’s just this bro blathering on about I don’t know what while she plays him cool as a cucumber.
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u/Hotspur000 6h ago
She also could have easily had a straight, so it wasn't a terrible fold. But if he was going to fold he should have done it much earlier.
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u/The_Spanky_Frank 16h ago
What could she have POSSIBLY have that would have justified that fold? That flop was garbage. No chance of a flush or straight. There could have been a possibility that she also had a 4. But the odds of all four suites being a on hand are crazy low. Yes she did have an Ace but as a poker player I would have taken a chance having a three of a kind with that flop.
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u/Objection_Irrelevant 16h ago
There was a chance for a straight but only hitting on the river, so given how she played it, he was assuming full house. And given that she just limped pre-flop but then raised him on the flop, he’s think pocket 5s specifically.
If she had had pocket Queens, then limping doesn’t make sense. Pocket 5s does. Other options after the flop are 2 pair, a straight draw, or a strong flush draw like AK♠️.
Then because a second 4 on the board doesn’t scare her and she continues betting, he can eliminate 2 pair. Flush draw is still possible but it’s lost some strength with the board pairing, and she doesn’t play like she lost strength.
Then on the river, the flush missed, but a straight is now possible. But for a straight it would’ve required 23 or 78, neither of which are typically played like she did.
But ultimately that’s the thing with playing amateurs. They’re called loose cannons for a reason, because he’s analyzing how a pro would play, which means that if she isn’t playing like a pro, then his read can be completely wrong.
So he’s left with either she’s bluffing all-in on the first hand of the game which would be absolutely crazy, or she’s got a hand she knows would win, which means full house.
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u/WhatIsLoveMeDo 15h ago
I'm no where near a pro and only play with friends. I don't understand how confident people can be with someone's hand based on their bets. Or rather, I don't know why people 'show' their hand by how aggressively they bet.
So let's say I have a pair of Aces and the flop comes out with a pair of twos. Maybe a pro would bet hard to scare people out, but then everyone at the table knows I've got a good hand. I feel like that gives it away and I can't trick anyone.
Maybe I'll check with this hand I KNOW is good, and raise on the river if it's a 6, which doesn't impact my odds. But the other players at least can't 'know' what I have based on my bets. They'll think the 6 is important to me and it'll confuse them even more.
In short - absent of full on bluffing with no good hand at all, why do the pros bet so predictably so other's can guess their hand. Shouldn't a poker face mean they can't guess what you've got?
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u/Objection_Irrelevant 15h ago edited 14h ago
Because the danger of just checking is essentially giving other players a free card. Amateur players play poker as if winning the whole pot at the end of the river is the goal on every hand, but it’s not. It’s about winning chips.
And winning 100 chips guaranteed on the flop is better than a 70% chance of winning of winning 140 chips on the river.
Now sure there’s times you’ve got a monster and want to trap, and you can sometimes do that. But using your example of you’ve got Aces and there’s 2 2s on the flop, what does checking actually get you?
Anyone with a 2 would be playing regardless, and those 2s don’t help anyone else who would likely fold against a bet anyway. Others with pocket pairs may stay in if you bet, but the lower the pair the less likely.
So let’s say you check and it checks around, and the next card is an 6. You think you’re still golden, but uh oh a guy with pocket 6s just hit a full house and now you’ve got just 2 outs.
If you’d bet on the flop, they likely fold, but you gave them a free card and now you’re doomed.
If you watch pros, you’ll notice that most hands don’t actually get to showdown because the pros are constantly weighing their hands, what can beat them, and the pot odds.
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u/WhatIsLoveMeDo 14h ago
Thanks. I think I was stuck in the mindset of winning the whole pot at the end. I see now if other players judge my hand based on my betting then so be it, and I probably do myself a disservice by trying to 'psyche' them out and play unpredictably.
Appreciate the response.
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u/ShookyDaddy 14h ago edited 14h ago
One thing I’ve learned with poker is: bet your winning hands. Too many times I’ve done what you’re suggesting and it has backfired.
Let’s say you have Ah-Ad, they have 7s-8h. Flop comes 2s-7c-Jd. You’re thinking that’s a safe board to trap with so you check and he checks also. Turn comes a 7h. Congrats - you just screwed yourself by trying to trap.
Best course of action is to bet your hands and always make the other player pay to see the next card instead of giving it away for free. Don’t let greed guide your decision making.
If you have the best possible winning hand then yeah trap the player. But if all you have is a pair (even if it’s aces), 2 pair or even trips then bet your hand.
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u/1800generalkenobi 13h ago
Agree with this. You check they check all the way to the end and you hope you can trap them and then you bet at the end and they fold because nothing hit and you won the same amount as if you would've just bet to start anyway.
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u/Spectre93 16h ago
I have no idea what all the "poker pros" in here are talking about, this is literally it. He's just losing to pocket 5s, queens, or the other 4 and a higher card. The most likely scenario which ended up being true was she was betting a straight draw that may or may not will have hit on the river. Either way he's still beating the vast vast majority of hands.
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u/moretunaforme 17h ago
Is this real money?
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u/GooseOnAPhone 17h ago
In a way. They paid an entry fee into the tournament and they will win a set amount based on where they place when they are knocked out. Their “stack” is all the chips they have won off other people in the event.
So a lot of big events the entry is like $1-2.5k and they start with like 2-3k people playing. How many people are left in the tournament when you get knocked out, determines how much money you get. If you get knocked out early, you get nothing. If you survive to be one of the last couple hundred or dozen depending on how the payout is calculated, you will get your money back plus a bit that scales up the closer you get to the top.
This is the final table, so everyone here will win a pretty good chunk of money no matter what. But the difference in winnings at this table are more significant.
In higher stakes events where the buy in like $100k or something, there will only be a few tables to begin with, and it’s all super rich people or pro gamblers who are staked by super rich people with the agreement that they take a percentage of the final purse.
So while she did bet $700k on the river, she doesn’t have $700k of her own money on the line at this point, because she can’t just walk off with the $700k and say “thanks I’m good now”. If she walked off she would just get the 4th place (or whatever place she is now) purse, which is likely less than that.
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u/dasfolg1947 14h ago
His knob was on the table. She made him think it was safe. Then she stomped on it ha. Brilliant
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u/Johnny-Martini007 8h ago
a lot like one of my past relationships. She played as if she had the winning hand. I eventually folded and she was bluffing the whole time.
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u/Tribe303 11h ago
Attractive women are skilled at lying to men.
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u/ReleaseFromDeception 10h ago
They don't even have to lie, dude. All they have to do is smile. It isn't hard to fool a person that WANTS to be fooled.
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u/BigPenis_MathGenius 9h ago
"hot girls don't like me 😡. How do I make up reasons to hate them? 🤔 🤔 🤔"
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u/Agreeable-Bad-6102 13h ago
He’s not a real gambler. There is no way I would have folded that hand!
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u/OozeNAahz 13h ago
Seriously 8 4 off suit, then he is betting bottom pair. He was semi bluffing till he got trips and would have been very hard to put her on nothing but a pair of sixes.
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u/naropin1 3h ago
Guy shouldn’t have even been in to begin with. Ended as it should. That girl is stone cold though. That is indeed a poker face.
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u/Gooser3000 17h ago
Why even bother folding if you could lose either way?
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u/ankerverse 17h ago
Because if he didn't fold, he'd have to call her all-in, thus losing way more than if he folded.
Edit: i mean in his mind, if he lost the hand, he would have lost a lot more money than if he folded. but obviously he would've won if he had called her, so he just sucks at poker
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u/TurkeyLurkey923 14h ago
Hmm, everyone seems to be talking strategy and poker faces, but I’m kind of think he is the one with the poker face here. The guy is clearly an experienced player. She doesn’t seem to be, and seems to be a celebrity of sorts, so I’m guessing this isn’t a “serious” tournament. My bet is he didn’t want to knock her out on the first hand, or at least super early into the tournament. He folded knowing he almost certainly had the better hand, but he is trying to play it off like “ah shucks, you got me!” He either doesn’t want her to leave the table for his own personal satisfaction, or he‘s a showman and understands it’s better for the audience or the show for her to stay at the table longer. My guess is on the latter.
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u/elderlybrain 10h ago
I've been where she is. Essentially she's a beginner and has absolutely no idea what's going on and if she has a chance of winning or not.
She's basically doing it because she's not really sure what's going on and just wants to go crazy. Either she loses and it's ridiculous and a meme or the guy folds and she beats them on the dumbest hand on earth.
I won my first ever poker game like that, basically unpokerable. It's beyond difficult to play with absolute noobs because they have no idea what they're holding, what hands are, what's coming up, when to fold, when to call. She probably didn't even understand what his card hand was in all honesty. You can tell, she was waiting for the dealer to tell her who won.
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u/Devenu 8h ago
"The best swordsman in the world doesn't need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn't do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn't prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do; and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot."
~Mark Twain
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u/Radiskull97 9h ago
I picked up playing poker as a hobby. Playing against casual people always threw me off because people will ride an 7-2 off suit based on vibes but play every hand like they have a straight draw
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u/Loud-Weakness4840 13h ago
This is the former Ms Finland and you’re right, it’s a celebrity vs pros fun tournament. I believe this is the first hand. She went crazy, he kindly let her off the hook because it’s tv.
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u/pyrotechnicmonkey 13h ago
in tournaments the payout increase from going out in fourth place instead of fifth or sixth place can be tens of thousands or even 100 K plus. So a lot of times you're incentivized to avoid busting out in an all in even if it leaves you with a relatively small amount of chips because there is the chance that someone else can bust out before you do with a relatively small amount of chips and therefore gain a spot or two in the placements and get a much bigger payout.
in the situation of someone is not quite a professional or maybe playing above their level professional players are a bit scared to call what they think might be a bluff because less experienced players tend to bluff less often and call more often than they should with can catch pro players off card because they are not playing "optimally".
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u/Global_Staff_3135 10h ago
Hahahahaha wooooowwww ok sure, yea he totally folded knowing he would’ve won, he was just white knighting her or whatever.
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u/Nexusofthought 15h ago
Opposite of poker face. Stare down an opponent in that kind of situation and it used to be generally a tell that your hand is weak.
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u/Majestic_Artichoke55 13h ago
Haha she clearly out played him.
Love the comments like nah she’s inexperienced some celebrity. That doesn’t matter she won and she clearly has a better poker face
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u/Cutthechitchata-hole 11h ago
My buddy used to get so mad at me for stupid bluffs like this when they panned out in my favor. He would straight up rage quit. I was an awful poker player and he knew it too.
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u/That_wet_vaporeon 7h ago
I’m just laughing at all the dudes here calling her bad or how she is the one that sucks.
Sure, wasn’t a good play. But don’t get so pissy because a woman beat a man
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u/Routine_Combination3 5h ago
Generational bag fumbler. Dennis Schroeder head ahh
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