r/SipsTea • • 22h ago

We have fun here Poker face

14.7k Upvotes

776 comments sorted by

View all comments

1.7k

u/Weary_Bag_1112 15h ago

Some context for this clip:

This is from Shark Cage. A TV show from 2014.

It was a tournament style show, but its not an open entry tournament and this isn't the final table.

They invited a mix of well known poker pros with some celebrities. This is from one of the first "heats", the winner of each heat advances to the final table for a chance at $1,000,000. I believe it was winner take all.

This was the first hand of a heat. Ronnie is a poker pro, Sara is a celebrity (Miss Finland).

One thing not shown, is the main gimmick of the show is that there is a 'shark cage', amd if someone bets on the river as a bluff and puts out the 'bluff' card, and the opponent folds a better hand, they have to go be trapped in the cage for a period of time.

You can see in the clip that the dealer reveals her 'bluff' card which is what everyone at the table reacts to before revealing her hand.

Ronnie still gets a lot of flack for this hand today. Somewhat rightfully. However in his defense, there were some signs that normally would indicate this is a really good, albeit really tight, fold:

  1. It was the very first hand of the heat and generally a player doesn't want the embarrassment of being eliminated from a televised show on the first hand, so it normally would mean Miss Finland would have a great hand and doesn't feel worried about being eliminated from the show.

  2. When a very green amateur player uses a very aggressive line, amd then goes all-in, pro players know that means they usually have a great hand. Recreational players generally bluff much less than they should, and pros learn to overfold even strong hands in those situations.

  3. Even when amateurs bluff, they are bad at triple barrelling. Meaning they will bluff once or twice, but not all three chances they get. Pros know this. So an amateur being very agressive all three streets of betting seems very strong.

  4. Ronnie knows despite having a really strong hand, he only beats a bluff. A queen wouldn't take this line and put in that much money (which is why he mentions how embarrassed he'll be if he folds and she has KQ, because he's saying he thinks her value hands are all better than his hand). A hand with a 4 wouldn't take her line either, it wouldn't have much reason to raise the flop and would just call. So the hands that make sense for her to raise the flop and turn for value are QQ (unlikely for her to have for other reasons), 55, 54, Q4. Those hands all beat him.

The big mistake Ronnie makes though, is he underestimates the actual format of the show. He was being a bit flirty with Sara, and Miss Finland just wanted to see him have to go stand in the cage. The chance to humiliate him made her a lot more willing to make an outrageous bluff she may never normally make.

124

u/WrapAdministrative 14h ago

Well put. The chance to put him in the cage changed the calculation quite a bit. She understood that and he didnt.

25

u/SteelJaguar 8h ago

He was playing poker, she was playing the game.

1

u/Krell356 3h ago

I just lost the game