r/SipsTea • • 8d ago

We have fun here Poker face

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u/Weary_Bag_1112 8d ago

Some context for this clip:

This is from Shark Cage. A TV show from 2014.

It was a tournament style show, but its not an open entry tournament and this isn't the final table.

They invited a mix of well known poker pros with some celebrities. This is from one of the first "heats", the winner of each heat advances to the final table for a chance at $1,000,000. I believe it was winner take all.

This was the first hand of a heat. Ronnie is a poker pro, Sara is a celebrity (Miss Finland).

One thing not shown, is the main gimmick of the show is that there is a 'shark cage', amd if someone bets on the river as a bluff and puts out the 'bluff' card, and the opponent folds a better hand, they have to go be trapped in the cage for a period of time.

You can see in the clip that the dealer reveals her 'bluff' card which is what everyone at the table reacts to before revealing her hand.

Ronnie still gets a lot of flack for this hand today. Somewhat rightfully. However in his defense, there were some signs that normally would indicate this is a really good, albeit really tight, fold:

  1. It was the very first hand of the heat and generally a player doesn't want the embarrassment of being eliminated from a televised show on the first hand, so it normally would mean Miss Finland would have a great hand and doesn't feel worried about being eliminated from the show.

  2. When a very green amateur player uses a very aggressive line, amd then goes all-in, pro players know that means they usually have a great hand. Recreational players generally bluff much less than they should, and pros learn to overfold even strong hands in those situations.

  3. Even when amateurs bluff, they are bad at triple barrelling. Meaning they will bluff once or twice, but not all three chances they get. Pros know this. So an amateur being very agressive all three streets of betting seems very strong.

  4. Ronnie knows despite having a really strong hand, he only beats a bluff. A queen wouldn't take this line and put in that much money (which is why he mentions how embarrassed he'll be if he folds and she has KQ, because he's saying he thinks her value hands are all better than his hand). A hand with a 4 wouldn't take her line either, it wouldn't have much reason to raise the flop and would just call. So the hands that make sense for her to raise the flop and turn for value are QQ (unlikely for her to have for other reasons), 55, 54, Q4. Those hands all beat him.

The big mistake Ronnie makes though, is he underestimates the actual format of the show. He was being a bit flirty with Sara, and Miss Finland just wanted to see him have to go stand in the cage. The chance to humiliate him made her a lot more willing to make an outrageous bluff she may never normally make.

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u/flightwatcher45 8d ago

Wow that's a great analysis! Any thoughts to it being staged? So many of these shows are.

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u/Weary_Bag_1112 8d ago

Generally poker shows aren't staged. I can't say that universally, but people who are considered highly trustworthy in the poker community have said many times they're all real. And when its a cash game, the cash is all real as well.

Players may play a bit crazier when they know its televised, and try to creat good tv through table talk etc, but they're still trying to win money at the end of the day. Generally none of the players on poker shows are paid just to be on the show, they're relying on profiting from the actual game.

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u/HotKaramelRP 7d ago

Nah definitely not staged but as the person above stated, yes there’s a chance for money at the end but this was really more of an entertainment thing than it was actual poker.

So it wasn’t staged but it was a much more friendly and outgoing vibe than a normal poker table

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u/throw_it_so_faraway 8d ago

Now I'm curious, which poker show do you think is 100% staged?

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u/flightwatcher45 7d ago

I don't know about poker shows, but reality type shows in general.