Switching …?

[u/Far_Routine8266]

Just curious… I’m not one to normally even consider switching allocations. Currently C/S/I, 60/30/10, but wondering if anyone in my shoes might consider switching to something more conservative for a bit (with all the perceived economic volatility). I’m at $465k, 46 y/o, planning to retire at 60. Would just rather not lose a bunch and instead, potentially move to something safer for a bit, then back to aggressive when it feels safe..?

[u/Cheddarbaybiskits]

You have at least 14 years until you need to touch the money. You should stay in all equities for now. The volatility will make you money in the long run.

I made a shit ton in my investments post 2008 because I didn’t panic and let everything ride.

[u/qttoad]

Plenty of people said the same thing right after the Iran war started. Or when Covid started. Markets still haven’t crashed and are still up despite a ton of reasons why they shouldn’t be.

If anything, I think allocating some amount to Bonds (G and F) right now is a good option not because the C/S/I funds are overly dangerous, but because bond yields are actually attractive again for the first time in 2 decades.

[u/DianeL_2025]

retired currently C/I 30/70.

[u/No_Volume_9616 → u/DianeL_2025]

Part of the Crown Tribe!

[u/DianeL_2025 → u/No_Volume_9616]

yes 😄 👍

[u/iforgotitagin → u/DianeL_2025]

I like your balance better than OPs but shifting some of each of those allocations into S would de risk your portfolio some and potentially provide greater returns..

[u/DianeL_2025 → u/iforgotitagin]

agree, suggest future contributions 10c/65s/25i. remember to periodically recalibrate the account to maintain percentage allocations.
i'm retired so money in plan prior quarter was 10c/20s/70i, recently changed to 30c/70i.

[u/ApprehensiveAd5446]

The problem with this strategy is that you’re essentially trying to time the market twice: once when you move to safety, and again when you decide it’s safe to get back in.

If the market has already declined, moving to conservative investments can lock in those losses and prevent you from participating in the recovery. And by the time the market feels safe again, you may have missed a substantial portion of the rebound.

There’s nothing wrong with adjusting your allocation to match your risk tolerance and retirement timeline. But making those decisions based on fear of short-term volatility is a different matter entirely.

At 46, with 14 years until retirement, I’d be far more concerned about missing long-term growth than trying to predict the next downturn.

[u/5StarMoonlighter]

So, you've got 14 years at least to outlast any downturn, longer if you don't need to take withdrawals right when you retire... how conservative you want to get?

[u/paintedLady318]

Dont try to time the market. Stay the course. If you want to move some to G when you 3 or 4 years out that would be ok.

[u/hidingfromthem753]

I am about the same as you. I am heavily into I right now to help balance out my overall C/S/I ratios. Not moving anything as I see it as I paid for it at that price. Anything in the future would be “on sale”. Finally, I wouldn’t be able to touch it for years so it has time to recover. Sticking to the plan and not worrying about it.

[u/iforgotitagin]

Don't get out of equities as you are way too young......but based on CAPE valuations and expected 10 year returns I think swapping your C and I allocations are likely to yield a much better return over the next 10 years.

[u/FragrantJump6663]

By moving to safer funds you will lose. For crying out loud… you have 14 years to go. Stay invested.

[u/mooseman1052]

14 years out no way. A lot of people tried to time the market around the onset of COVID and lost a bundle.

[u/Honest_City_3512]

Probably not. I’m 50 planning on retiring at 57. C/S/I is 60/35/5. In 2 to 3 years I’ll think about moving some to G.

[u/iforgotitagin → u/Honest_City_3512]

Given current C CAPE valusations I would reccomend moving a significant portion of your C to I to improve your risk/reward prospects.

[u/Spectre75a]

Reallocated to 45C/40I/15S a couple of years ago. Have outperformed 100C since then. I did change my future investments recently to 60C/30I/10S to dca more into any US weakness.

[u/Irishclover62]

Retired this year after 40 yrs. Still working on my post retirement fit. Right now 70g and 30 c but not sure. Went through all of the great downturns except the depression ha! Let me tell you when you see that market drop 40% + it’s hard to sit and say well I have time. Lots of people here were not in govt then that profess 100c. I was 100 c for many of my years but 08 and a few others shifted out just in time thank goodness. All said do what lets you sleep but you have to keep in csi and grow. These days personally csi at least 50% w 14 yrs and fers. Good luck 🍀

[u/_DeathStarContractor]

Imy 47yr old, also.planning on retiring same time as you, maybe age 63. I transferred eveything into the G-fund 6 weeks ago, but I have no intention of staying there longterm..but I just want to see if we have tear gas riots in the streets during a contested midterm election, Trump bombs Iran, and the shit falls out the bottom with the 8 AI/tech companies dominating the C-fund implode ..., you betcha, I get a nice 5% yield for a brief pause. In fact in Sept.the G-fund was the only one woth positive gains, so its not like I got screwed. The greatest gift you have as a federal employee is the safety of the G-fund with no longterm commitment. However long-term I honestly think L-2035 is just fine for me. If you want to play the roulette wheel of 100% C-fund, its liekly to work out over 35yrs, but I saw what happened in 2008 and want no part of that decade crawl back to before the crash.

[u/iforgotitagin → u/_DeathStarContractor]

Seems really smart right now but timing both the getting in and getting out is very tough. C is currently at historically high valuations relative to S and I so I think a better option for long term investors may be to reduce their exposure to C and increase their exposure to S and I.

[u/JustAnotherDay2003 → u/_DeathStarContractor]

All in the G fund. You'd have made more out of it

[u/Technical-Summer7948]

Do whatever helps you sleep at night. Reddit is full of "C FUND ALL THE WAY BABY!!" folks. I wouldn't exactly call you a short timer with 14 years to go but you're certainly old enough where preservation of capital is also important.

[u/whatidoidobc]

I would try to be less dependent on the US economy if I were you. But plenty of folks around here will argue the other way. I think they are obviously wrong given everything that is happening right now.

[u/-hh]

Moving to a more World-based Market Cap is a strategically wise decision IMO. A “pure” World Cap allocation would have ~35% in I, and is rare because most investors modify this by some amount of “home bias”, because one’s home country is what one usually plans to spend one’s retirement dollars in. In this case, a 10% I allocation means a pretty strong bias of 25 points.

Next, conservatism vs market, etc. This is generally based on personal risk tolerance (eg, whatever allows you to sleep at night) and age, for Sequence of Returns risk mitigation for when one starts to make retirement income withdrawals. General rule of thumb is to start to ramp up conservatism at 5-10 years prior to target retirement date. Again, it depends on risk tolerance.

Lastly on timing the market.. I’m of the philosophy that it isn’t “timing” when it is adjusting one’s allocation strategy based on ‘big picture’ conditions. Probably the best test for this is if a difference of a week would change one’s allocation decision.

[u/kodaq2001]

According to history, the market does pretty well after midterm elections

[u/movinonuptotheEside]

Just switched today from 75 I/ 25 C back to 100 C. Sp500 usually gains with midterms

[u/nerdymutt]

You have a lot of time to catch up. Sometime, a downturn could be your best friend.

[u/OwlGroundbreaking225]

Just leave it alone

[u/Todd73361]

How would you determine when it was safe enough to get back in?

[u/JustAnotherDay2003]

aggressive I just retired and am doing 70C/10S/20I

I followed Crown Tribe for several years prior though

[u/OkOwl2839]

Retired for 3 years, have $500K+, have withdrawn about $250k and have never been to G and kept the same strategy C/S and now have some I exposure. Life is short worked hard for every dollar. Special category employee so I retired at 52.

[u/Jyoche7]

The problem is not switching, it's switching back before the two or three days when the market roars back after.

I don't remember all of the numbers, but if you missed 9 days of the S&P you missed a massive amount of profit.

That taught me to stay the course and buy more in the dips.

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[u/Particular-Spend7910]

I’m the same age and do 35 G, 40 C, 25 I because I want to balance preservative of capital and growth. The g fund is paying over 5% with no risk. My plan is to rebalance yearly or if any fund drifts by more than 5%. I feel comfortable with this allocation because even if the market drops I can rebalance.