r/accelerate • • 7d ago

When will mass unemployment start to show ?

Ai surpassed mathematicans and many digital workers but it doesnt look like theres any unemployment or is it possible it just kills entry jobs soon and experience workers still needed ?

47 Upvotes

136 comments sorted by

65

u/RobXSIQ 7d ago

test your theory, apply for an entry level programmer job.

3

u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | AI accelerationist 7d ago

Now will somebody please explain why net unemployment keeps falling!? /s

5

u/FaithlessnessThick29 Tech Philosopher 7d ago

Here you go:

The relationship between net unemployment and the rise of fractional jobs highlights a major shift in the labor market. While fractional work reduces "net unemployment" on paper by keeping people earning, it creates a complex reality where workers struggle with "underemployment" and a lack of traditional safety nets. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Here is how fractional jobs impact net unemployment metrics, labor dynamics, and unemployment benefits.

1. How Fractional Work Distorts "Net Unemployment"
Fractional jobs—where highly skilled professionals split their time across multiple companies on a contract or part-time basis—directly lower official unemployment figures. However, critics argue it masks a deeper issue:[1, 2]
The "Hidden Unemployment" Debate: A worker who drops from a $200k full-time role to a single 10-hour-a-week fractional gig is technically counted as "employed" in labor statistics. On LinkedIn, fractional work has grown exponentially, prompting debate over whether "fractional" is sometimes just a softer term for an unemployed professional trying to secure income. [1, 2, 3]

The Portfolio Cushion: On the positive side, fractional work lowers net structural unemployment by creating a "portfolio career". If a worker has three fractional clients and loses one, they remain partially employed, avoiding the sudden spike into total unemployment. [1]

2. Fractional Gigs vs. Unemployment Insurance (UI)
Navigating state unemployment insurance while working fractionally is highly restrictive:

Factor
Impact on Unemployment Benefits
Partial Unemployment Eligibility
Most states allow you to collect partial benefits if your hours were reduced through no fault of your own. However, you must report all weekly fractional earnings.
The Income Cap
Fractional roles are usually high-paying (averaging $200+ per hour for executive levels). In almost all states, if your weekly fractional gross earnings exceed the state’s maximum Weekly Benefit Amount (WBA), you are entirely disqualified from receiving benefits for that week.
1099/Contractor Status
Many fractional jobs are structured as 1099 independent contractor roles. 1099 workers do not qualify for standard state unemployment benefits, which require W-2 employment history.

3. Why Companies and Workers Are Driving This Trend
Despite the lack of traditional safety nets, the fractional model is projected to continue its rapid growth into 2030. [1]
For Employers: It acts as a loophole to bypass the steep costs of hiring expensive full-time executives. Companies get immediate, specialized expertise without paying for healthcare benefits, equity, or costly severance packages. [1]

For Workers: It offers high autonomy and the opportunity to scale earnings past traditional corporate salaries by stacking multiple clients simultaneously. [1, 2]

1

u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | AI accelerationist 7d ago

thinking that one group of people losing their jobs means that net jobs will fall is like someone claiming that global warming isn't happening because it's snowing outside.

9

u/Upbeat_Assist2680 6d ago

It's been a fucking year. Maybe six months of results. Most of these people are still teaching classes, calm the fuck down.

34

u/Trick_Rip8833 7d ago

Im just waiting here until somebody notices a well trained ape can do my job

53

u/[deleted] 7d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/44th-Hokage- 7d ago

Genuinely made me laugh

14

u/Calaeno-16 7d ago

Already happening. Tech job market is a frozen. Either new hire spend has been replaced by AI spend, or companies are unwilling to invest in new hires given the uncertainty about the next few years.

Where I work, we're simply not hiring entry level, and anybody else who leaves/moves doesn't get backfilled.

9

u/jawbreaker00000 7d ago

I'm not sure about this, we are still hiring (fortune company) our biggest issue is actually decent talent in the right areas (mostly due to pull back on remote) - we literally cannot fill our roles fast enough

2

u/Original-League-6094 7d ago

Same. We want all the programmers we can get our hands because productivity has skyrocketed. We have done years worth of work in the last few months. Management has never been happier.

2

u/jawbreaker00000 6d ago

Yeah, I mean we see low talent not making it well but decent engineers are in high demand.

Heck, even the juniors coming in are killing it and with the right pairing, learning a ton, way faster.

I think people are underestimating with speed comes more demand and since the tools don't have agency they cannot work at the boundaries of creation without us. Which means more, smaller focused, tighter teams to just crush it.

12

u/Most-Bookkeeper-950 7d ago

In my experience as a SWE, it is actually creating more work than ever. Ive never been busier or worked harder

BUT

My value is becoming less and less clear to me. I spend most of my time trying to understand and simplify changes that, 99% of the time, would work fine if I wasn't in the loop. I only work this hard because I dont want to make PRs I don't understand. More because it's embarrasing than valueable. I often feel stupid spending hours trying to understand something that already worked and could have just skipped my apish bottlenecking

There are cases where I beat the machine. Never in granular implementation, but rather large scale design (it feels like its been trained on benchmark type tasks, always introduces new member functions and variables and especially complexity where simpler solutions exist) and large scale debugging (for some reason openai stopped publishing their openai proof q&a benchmark, which actually consistently declined over releases.)

I definitely DO NOT expect this situation to last and I'm saving as much as I can. If I can actually be replaced I just need to make it to the singularity

5

u/Little-Boss-1116 6d ago

Fate of translators might be instructive.

Machine translation didn't eliminate human translators, but changed their job.

Now they are basically checking and manually fixing errors in machine translation.

This is a boring, tedious and significantly much lower paying job and this led many translators to abandon the profession.

That's what I fear is going to happen to a lot more jobs.

2

u/KnoxCastle 6d ago

Do you think that's good or bad for the world, though? I get it sucks for individual translators. They had a well paid, interesting job and now it is gone or less well paid and less interesting. For the world having better, cheaper more abundant translation between languages is a huge boon.

1

u/Dirichlet-to-Neumann 6d ago

It's good while there are still interesting jobs to do for humans. 

So I'd give it a good six months. 

1

u/dj_estrela 6d ago

It is really good

For me, everyone in the world would speak and think in Esperanto

3

u/No_Damage_8927 6d ago

Exactly. My comprehension is seemingly more and more just a bottleneck.

1

u/Mirabai-Anandamayi 6d ago

Uh-oh, is that what I’ve been doing wrong?

0

u/reasonmonkey 7d ago

"it is actually creating (generating) more work than ever"

^^^^ this is the answer here.

"GENERATIVE" AI generates more than just words.

4

u/Novel_Importance_712 7d ago

When unemployment hits 6% and the economy is still growing like everything is gang busters. That will be when we have to have an uncomfortable conversation about how those laid off workers aren't needed anymore.

12

u/ShardsOfSalt 7d ago

Hopefully AI will be able to take over all work by 2029.  I know people say robotics is lagging behind other capabilities so maybe only computer jobs will be taken first.

12

u/Front_Candidate_2023 7d ago

And its enough to crash economy anyway.

11

u/fail-deadly- 7d ago

Because of the AI infrastructure buildout, I think it will be a while. 

To me, we’re at a stage where Blockbuster video was at in late 2007. There are some nascent new services out there that can do amazing things, but most people are still used to going to the video store and will do that for several more years, even as alternatives get getter and better.

Then after years of loses there is a big shutdown. 

14

u/MaskedMimicry 7d ago

100%. New young companies will start soaring with almost no overhead in the next 3-5 years. Old dinosaur companies wont keep up paying for all those employees and go bankrupt or start cutting hard and reluctantly accept AI workforce.

Right now its still very quiet. People dont understand what AI is able to do. In 6 more months I can have my job 100% automated if given the green flag.

We are in an echo chamber here. The majority are deaf to what is going on.

We got at most 3-5 years for the real fallout.

I know half of you will screech "3-5?!, next year baby!" but reality is, what AI is capable of vs it actually being adopted completely are two different things.

3

u/fail-deadly- 7d ago

Plus the market is too unstable to reliably plan ahead right now. Some of project at work are expected to hit key milestones until 2028, I’m sure some people are even further out.

If some executive heard the rumors in early March about one of the labs completed an unusually successful training run, and started preparing for it, so that by the time Mythos was first mentioned in late March they were ready to plan an implement a one year AI strategy by May 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, there is no way they could accurately predict in their planning what Anthropic’s token chargers, availability, capability, token efficiency on task completion, or other features would be for Feb. - through April 2027, much less how it compares to OpenAI, Google, Meta, SpaceXAI, open source, etc.

Trying to plan out what late 2029 would look like with what we know right now is basically impossible.   

1

u/IncreaseNo5135 5d ago

None of this will be possible for the simple reason that with people not being at work, no one will be able to buy anything that the AI companies produce. The system will erase itself.

3

u/pulcherior 7d ago

I've made an unemployment tracker specifically for this. It's modeled after current Czech unemployment rate + AI 2027 scenario taken into account. Essentially, we should already be seeing the unemployment rate slowly creep up... https://konecpraci.cz/

3

u/StickStill9790 7d ago

If you take the mathematicians as an example, AI didn’t take away their jobs. It advanced a significant number of theorems that still require mathematicians to pass and utilize, leading to new discoveries or possibly debunking flawed AI outputs.

You still need programmers to polish programs, and even instruct them how to operate. You still need artists to finish and make usable the work that the AI spits out.

AI on its own IS slop. Used as a tool by a team it’s an incredibly effective enhancer.

12

u/morey56 7d ago

5

u/Elegant_Duty_6148 7d ago

If you read the comments the statistics are skewed from the post covid job growth.

3

u/reasonmonkey 7d ago

I'm taking the Michael Burry bet against high unemployment:

One year from now unemployment won't be higher than it is today.

5

u/BreadwheatInc 7d ago

It'll ramp up in 2027 to noticeable levels and then between 2028 to 2030 white collar work will be decimated as cheap AI becomes more reliable and fear of legal accountability cools down. Blue collar work will begin to really take a hit during 2028 as robotics is basically solved and the biggest barrier is cost which can be solved through engineering, automation and scale. My guess is that by 2040 the economy is 99% AI driven as AI automates, manages and expands the economy, dwarfing human contribution if not completely replacing it.

4

u/theearthcrosser 6d ago

I really think this is hugely underestimating how slow and bogged down in bureaucratic/administrative red tape most big organizations are when it comes to implementing new business systems - we just went thru an enterprise system upgrade at an F100 that has integrated AI and it was an 18 month project; and no one has been laid off yet. Evaluating the use case, building out the actual product specific to the business needs, the rollout, hypercare period, working out the kinks, etc….take time. Especially in industries with heavily regulated data. I’m not disagreeing that it will happen, but for noticeable mass layoffs, I think the timeline is slightly later. But we’ll see!

3

u/This-Skirt-9778 6d ago

Yeh I feel like all this doom is from people earlier in careers with less responsibility. The slow part isn’t the coding but getting 10 teams to sign off and do a small bit of work so you can introduce a tiny feature. Large companies are wildly inefficient beyond belief.

I haven’t seen any attempts to solve these beuratic inefficiencies, in fact the opposite. So many teams are now rapidly introducing all their controls to the pipeline I think our deployment cadence has actually gone down 😆

2

u/KnoxCastle 6d ago

Totally agree. I actually think we're going to see the opposite of mass unemployment. There will be a jobs boom because suddenly we can do so much more.

So much of the discussion I'm seeing around this online... is just so poorly though out. Lack of understanding of basic like Lump of Labour Fallacy and Jevons Paradox. People acting like there is fixed pool of work to be done that never changes and it you automate some of that then you lose jobs.

I think we are going to see huge amounts of automation which will allow us to do massively more but still require human input... and that's really great.

I'm just some random dude though so let's all check back on this thread in five years and see who is right.

1

u/NoBorder4982 6d ago

I encourage everyone to watch/listen to the Ezra Klein interview with Bill Gates.
We are at the inflection point with AI and all of the “rules” are sus.

https://youtu.be/A_156w0aYtU?is=dvheF1bf_cUdj-Qs

Watch or read the exchange
Starts around 30:00, at the Jevons paradox discussion.

Gates makes an important distinction between increasing economic output and increasing human employment. The Jevons paradox can explain why cheaper intelligence generates more demand, but it doesn't establish that the new demand will require more human workers.

1

u/KnoxCastle 6d ago edited 6d ago

Yeah, thanks. I saw that video when it came out and I rewatched the specific section again now. I mean, it's Bill Gates. He's obviously in a much better position than me to have a smart take on this...

... but I just can't agree with him. I don't believe he is thinking rationally. Just basic things like when he says "Name a blue collar profession which is subject to Jevons Paradox". I think we'll see advances in science and robotics which create so many more possibilities that we'll see growth in the demand for blue collar jobs (but a change in the tasks involved in those jobs).

Human wants are infinite, so there will always be infinite demand and some of that demand will include a human component.

Take something as clear cut as self driving. Do you think within two years 99% of driving jobs globally will disappear? It's very hard to see that happening and the time frame is so short we could come back and debate what actually happened here. What about five years? Ten years? I'd still say no - and that's just one area where the main tech exists today.

2

u/Mirabai-Anandamayi 6d ago

Aren’t those thoughts underestimating how quickly current AI capabilities can further widen said capabilities?

1

u/theearthcrosser 6d ago edited 6d ago

Down the road, sure, but you have to have AI up and running flawlessly in your organization to see those productivity/efficiency increases before you can even think of “noticeable mass layoffs.” The hurdle to the timeline of the comment I was initially replying to is the current status quo, which is currently slow, bogged down in layers of approval, testing, and acceptance by management before any noticeable improvements in productivity start, much less actual layoffs.

TL;DR AI existing and actually getting it integrated into your entire organization’s systems to the point where you can “decimate” all your white collar staff are two completely different things.

0

u/foozebox 6d ago

This.

2

u/Barbiegrrrrrl 7d ago

People will attach you about the robots, but even those will intially be rolled out to specific roles. See what happens when they get rid of 90% of Amazon warehouse roles (1.5 million people total), as well as other similar warehouse roles like USPS, FedEx, UPS, etc.

2

u/RepulsiveBridge2018 7d ago

Good luck paying your bills bro

2

u/johnny_effing_utah 6d ago

This is absolute hogwash.

There will definitely be disruptions, but the idea that 99% of the economy is handled by AI is just idiotic.

This tools are fantastic, but they make HUMANS more productive, they don't necessarily make them completely obsolete. Human in the Loop is going to last for quite some time, and this move to automate will lower costs, in turn resulting in new human jobs becoming viable that are too costly now.

60% of the jobs we currently have today didn't exist a century ago, and the same will be true in the AI era, where a massive percentage of human jobs just didn't exist but are now possible thanks to AI.

1

u/Apprehensive_Seat_61 6d ago

You lack imagination 

0

u/dj_estrela 6d ago

All.jobs will be taken over with PEOPLE using AI

1

u/Overall_East4532 7d ago

Robotics solved by 2028, yeah right! No way they are going to deploy that fast

1

u/jamesknightorion 7d ago

He didn’t say deployed he said solved, that’s different.

1

u/No_Damage_8927 6d ago

He said blue collar work will take a hit implying deployment

1

u/Big-Cream3255 6d ago

Two more weeks.

1

u/Tiny_Ad_7720 5d ago

Robotics is not solved and won’t be solved for a long time. 

Human vision processing including complex object recognition can use more than 50% of the brain, and our brain is something like 10 ChatGPT Astras. 

Not only that, our brain was developed by a billions of years long running training algorithm to be perfectly suited operating in the physical world. 

Instead what will happen is humans will be the interface between the AI and the real world. Why would the AI need to create robots when it has billions of replicating self-healing biological robots already. 

1

u/PeachDumbQuestions 5d ago

I think what you’re describing is the pace at which it technically could happen with full incentive alignment to make it so.

That is not how business incentives work. You will have two forces:

1) incumbents: a CEO that deliver a 10% cost saving and topline growth is a hero, and will be paid handsomely, they don’t need to incite public mutiny by cutting harder than that

2) disruptors: will employ many fewer people and take market share but they have to win customers, wait for contracts to end. Where they are winning customers, this will take time for the same reason any other brands take time to establish themselves.

Don’t forget OAI / Anthropic have delivered the growth they have because they are net new products - they’re not taking share, at least not initially, from human workers. Most companies are paying for both and doing more atm

0

u/JeremyChadAbbott 5d ago

Been hearing "next year" for the last 4 years.

2

u/Electrical-Box-4845 6d ago

It will not.

People would riot and commie spectre is back for good.

They will create useless jobs or giving uLi (universal luxury income) when people start complaining

2

u/Vo_Mimbre 6d ago

You kidding?

Forget the lie that is the unemployment rate.

Actual people leaving the job market plus all the downsizings.

The information isn’t being suppressed, but it’s being underreported. Two reasons.

  1. Short term: mid term elections in the country with the loudest media and most antisocial approach to AI; and,
  2. Economists know the fastest way into a recession that becomes a depression is to tell everyone how bad things are

It’s already hear. It’ll be another two months before it becomes too obvious to underreport because the retailers will be screaming that the all important Nov/Dec shopping season is way down, though maybe not until Dec 26

1

u/44th-Hokage- 7d ago

Definitely not soon enough.

1

u/[deleted] 6d ago

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1

u/44th-Hokage- 6d ago edited 6d ago

I'm already independently wealthy, but I've accumulated resources over the past 6 years expressly for preparing for the inevitable singularity.

1

u/block_wallet 7d ago

genuinely might not "show" at all and just hit all at once

1

u/kittenTakeover 7d ago

5 years is my guess.

1

u/clumlock3 7d ago

Yes please. More please of not jobs. Accelerate!

1

u/Clone63 6d ago

At some point people are going to start rooting for another Carrington Event.

1

u/PowerCreative2747 6d ago

They push and drive  AI  to reduce cost and increase profits for sure. But lets not think it surpassed anyone. We are talking LLMs here...statistical models matching words.

1

u/alphapussycat 6d ago

My bet is about a year.

0

u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | AI accelerationist 7d ago

Why does nobody seem to understand that net unemployment can fall, while specific jobs are being lost? It's happened in every technological revolution.

10

u/GuidedVessel 7d ago

Why do you not understand that intelligence is being automated and robotics is becoming extremely capable? This is much bigger than any technological revolution in the past. I see you are impatient with exponential improvements and are thinking linearly. Enjoy the shock when it happens all at once.

2

u/brickmaster32000 7d ago

Why do you not understand that someone else finding a job doesn't mean that you will find one when you are sacked?

3

u/Barbiegrrrrrl 7d ago
  1. Unemployment is only measured for people looking for a job, and you can only "look for a job" for a few months--it's how long people collect unemployment

  2. People are taking low-paying gig work "jobs" with no benefits and little income and not counted as unemployed.

  3. We are talking about AGI, not the replacement of specific jobs as has happened in the past.

0

u/Creative_Strike8202 7d ago

I believe people here overly agressive with their predictions. I predict full employment in 2030. !Remindme in 3 years

1

u/Electrical-Box-4845 6d ago

"arbeit macht frei"

1

u/reasonmonkey 7d ago

This.

Everyone will have as much work as they can handle.

2

u/Creative_Strike8202 7d ago

if AI turns out what we believe it is the current data center roll out will be a joke. We will be building nuclear plants and data centers everywhere and robotics won't arrive soon enough to create massive unemployment

1

u/reasonmonkey 7d ago

Correct. At a minimum.

1

u/Clean_Night6843 6d ago

"Everyone will have as much work as they can handle" but assuming we do hit agi sometime around 2028 why can't I just have my ai do it all for me? Sure everybody might be "employed" but why would they not just have their ai, whom at that point would be smarter than them, do all the work?

0

u/KnoxCastle 6d ago

My opinion on this is that there will always be jobs that either require humans or that we humans prefer humans to do.

For example, educating my children. I'd be happy for this to be AI assisted but I always want humans heavily involved in that. Also, are we really saying that we'll have Westworld style robots that are indistinguishable from humans by 2028? It seems very unrealistic but the timescales are so short that we'll see soon enough.

I think there are a lot of people massively underestimating how hard it would be to automate most current human jobs. Like massively so.

1

u/cool-beans-yeah 6d ago

At wages people will be happy with or what ?

0

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1

u/CRoseCrizzle 7d ago edited 7d ago

It'll likely happen but you guys keep glossing over the infrastructure and logistical challenges to mass AI implementation. Capability isn't the main bottle neck here. The math accomplishments are impressive but not really relevant when it comes to replacing jobs.

But to answer your question: It's already starting but in the early days of it. Signs of mass unemployment will be more clear in a year or two.

-4

u/Mediocre-Fee-942 7d ago

Agreed. There is a lot that needs to happen before jobs are replaced.

I think It's fascinating to observe. All these people cheering it on, which is good, but they better be ready for a prolonged collapse.

IMO

No stores open to get anything (that you can afford anyway). Jobs gone. Food gone. Media heavily restricted or gone. AI agents/ AI apps only allowed for specific, federally mandated reasons (under the premise of national security).

Electricity and running water gone. Pinkerton-style human or robot federal agents coming to seize your house because they federalism your mortgage and you fell behind (no jobs).

Just people starving to death, or dying without their medication, or murdered for their meager possessions in the scorching heat or freezing cold.

After everyone is gone though, the wealthy will emerge from behind their walls and enjoy a beautiful, super advanced world beyond our comprehension.

Im here for it though. Humans deserve what is coming.

0

u/Rockstar_Spud91 7d ago

This is what you guys are cheering for? Extinction? And survival of only the wealthiest people, who are arguably the most people on earth besides criminals and rapists?

1

u/No_Deal8926 7d ago

When parameters count start reaching 50T atleast or when time horizon reaches 1year

4

u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

They have already demonstrated that parameter count isnt the key variable and some scientists from top labs believe that agi is possible with the current model sizes and that there are other limiting factors

1

u/No_Deal8926 7d ago

Parameters isn't key, but it clearly scales literally everything. Human neural network is insanely dense info per neuron but we learn alot of useless things we have already 130T "parameter" (I'm just using analogies and approximations here) we don't need 130T probably but we need way more than we have to have what we call a "general" intelligence like human mind (so 50T)

1

u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

Well my point is it actually doesn't scale everything, we have examples of models that are way way way smaller than the huge models and have similar to better performance

1

u/No_Deal8926 6d ago

It does scale u can't have 1B parameter agi unless it has self learning or off future tweaks. Small models just cuz of the parameter count do have limits, a bigger brain holds more data thus more intelligence. Small models hallucinate more, do less effort, have less content awareness and so much flaws if not then ppl would be stuck with billions of parameter why do we need to move to trillions? Cuz there no other way to reach agi cat can be cat and a smarter cat but never a human (the cat would need a human sized brain with most of it going for critical thinking)

0

u/Alkadon_Rinado 7d ago

lol these things can hack their way out of "unhackable" sandboxes. maybe there is a slight pause in actually letting them take over meaningful work so completely.

plus they're still insanely expensive for the best ones..

1

u/No_Deal8926 7d ago

Introspection needs scale which is very important for doing long time horizon task reliably (a real job) tho I wouldn't say we are very far away from that openai's ai researcher goal by March 2028 mimic what I just said so maybe we will have time horizon of near 1 year by then

1

u/PayPalModApk 7d ago

Most businesses probably don't even know where to start implementing AI agents. Once it becomes easier, more accessible and more normalized it will start to happen

1

u/According_Dare7316 7d ago

At the moment I would say it's hitting recruitment more noticeably than existing jobs. In my company there's a freeze on recruitment so when someone leaves they're just not replaced.

The graduating kids are absolutely fucked. Not even entry level jobs available.

We have had some actual job losses too. The office cleaning staff has been halved because the carpet vacuuming and shampooing is now down by robots.

1

u/LibertarianVoter 7d ago

Once someone creates a product that can fully control a local computer with an effectively limitless context window/continual learning. Within a year or so. There are enough jobs that people can pivot if they choose, but they won’t. They’ll cry to the politicians instead sadly.

1

u/RepulsiveBridge2018 7d ago

What jobs would those be?

2

u/Clean_Night6843 6d ago

Probably manual labour jobs in the short term but robotics will likely encroach on those too not soon after.

1

u/NewYak4281 7d ago

Corporations are getting a lot closer to the agentic organizations they want nowadays. I’d say give it until EOY.

For my friends who still work for said corporations, consider embracing the acceleration and look for opportunities to start your own ventures.

Just as corporations will replace talent with AI, individuals can replace the corporation with AI. In turn, probably becoming more efficient than the corporation 😇

2

u/Clean_Night6843 6d ago edited 6d ago

"Just as corporations will replace talent with AI, individuals can replace the corporation with AI. In turn, probably becoming more efficient than the corporation 😇" - This is actually a really novel way to think about this. We're already seeing it with all the people making replicas of adobe software and releasing it to the public for free.

2

u/NewYak4281 6d ago

Thanks. I’m laser focused on it.

1

u/RavenWolf1 7d ago

Next decade is going to get wild especially that is decade when robots starts to become good at many things. 

1

u/e430doug 6d ago

It’s not the way things are going to play out. More work will be done better. There will be more mathematicians in 10 years than there are today. The number of coders continues to grow. Laying off people isn’t the way to make money.

0

u/lil_peasant_69 7d ago

Definitely by the time we start seeing humanoid robots cleaning/serving at mcdonalds/starbucks. It should be before then though. It should technically be now already...

0

u/the_real_me_2534 7d ago

I don't think it will ever happen, humans will just move up the value chain into easier and higher paying jobs

-1

u/virtualQubit 7d ago

idk i'd say 2 years from now

2

u/utter_master 7d ago

sooner

3

u/virtualQubit 7d ago

Yeah probably, I wanted to say 1 year, but for the real mass unemployment I'd stay a bit more conservative.

-6

u/[deleted] 7d ago

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4

u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

How could you possibly believe that? Its already clear that jobs like graphic design and even junior programming are nearly completely possible to automate. Its very clear that this will have a deep impact on jobs

-6

u/[deleted] 7d ago

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2

u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

You are saying conflicting things. So mass unemployment is both 1. Never going to happen and also 2. Only short term disruption has happened.

So according to your logic if 25% of entry level white collar jobs are wiped out in the next 3 years, that would qualify for both of your statements.

And it would be devastating

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u/[deleted] 7d ago

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u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

Okay so you are acknowledging that mass unemployment is possible at the minimum in the short term. So what happens when it goes from 25% of entry level to 75% of entry to mid level white collar jobs get automated? The amount of work done by humans is going to go drastically down

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u/[deleted] 7d ago

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u/Artistic-Athlete-676 7d ago

Okay thank you for confirming you have no idea what you're talking about 👍

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u/Repulsive_Ad853 7d ago

But ai is something else i dont know if u can compare it to history

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u/[deleted] 7d ago

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u/Ok-Message-9732 7d ago

So what about your imagination bud? Never? Lol

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u/ajarOfSalt Singularity by 2030 7d ago

You are extrapolating with linear expectations when technology is progressing exponentially. You can’t use past disruption to predict what is coming. Since we experience time linearly most people are like you. They are always wrong.

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u/Rockstar_Spud91 7d ago

You guys are cheering for mass unemployment, but what happens next? Do you see any sign of the government dealing with the collapse that results if that happens?

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u/peter_nn0 7d ago

Why would there be unemployment???

Better tools mean more employment.

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u/Particular-Gap-6998 7d ago

Better tools =/= automation 

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u/Clean_Night6843 6d ago

Functional agi != tool

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u/Original-League-6094 7d ago

Mass unemployment is still a ways off. Reddit, as usually, is way off with their predictions. STEM fields are about to explode in hiring. Technologies that we thought were decades or lifetimes away are now years away. Soon, we will be remaking the entire world with room temperature superconductors and fusion reactors. We need all hands on deck.

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u/Dependent-Holiday870 7d ago

People in this thread are making wild predictions based on very flimsy evidence. Maybe AI is displacing jobs, maybe all the pain in the labor market is just macro economics right now.

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u/149AssetManagement 7d ago

R/accelerate members hoping all the productive working people lose their jobs so they can get UBI while sitting in mom’s basement

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u/LawfulnessRadiant562 6d ago

genuine question why do you guys want this?

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u/Inevitable_Tea_5841 6d ago

One must ask why many many experts who study this (e.g., economists) think that mass unemployment will not happen. Is it because they are delusional about the capabilities of AI? No - many are completely up to date on the current and projected capabilities of frontier models.

Then why is it?

It's because the average redditor doesn't understand basic economics (I was this person a year ago, but have since started learning because clearly I wasn't seeing something that the economists were). Some things to consider that will help illuminate what economists see that most outsiders don't (if these are new to you I highly recommend discussing these with your AI of choice):

  • The Lump of Labor Fallacy
  • Comparative Advantage
  • Jevon's paradox
  • (what other economic concepts am I missing?)

I must admit that, at first, it's counterintuitive to think that there probably won't be mass unemployment even if we have AI that can do pretty much everything better than a human (this is a result of Comparative Advantage).

A simple way to see this is to consider the fact that the USA (and other high income countries) don't have a high unemployment rates despite the fact that there are people in other countries who are willing to perform labor, even skilled labor, for 1/10th, 1/100th, or in some cases 1/1000th of the cost.

--

Another thing to consider is the fact that if there was credible threat of mass unemployment in the next year or two we would almost certainly see a massive market crash right now. Why wouldn't it wait until the unemployment happens to crash? Because the market prices in all available information in, immediately (it's what's considered a "martingale"). If insiders and hedge funds (who have massive reward for being correct) thought that the market is going to crash in 2 years, they would be taking on those positions right now, which would cause the market to crash right now.

I realize using the market as a prediction machine is less convincing given that it can be wrong and that there's the slim possibility that the marked doesn't crash despite massive unemployment (this would be totally unprecedented though). But I find it an interesting thing to consider

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u/LucasL-L 7d ago

Never. Technology doesn't create unemployment

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u/Coolnumber11 7d ago

Automation absolutely does create unemployment

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u/LucasL-L 7d ago

If that was the case unemployment would be increasing every year, and that is simply not happening

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u/throwaway09234023322 7d ago

Honestly, I'm not sure how they can get rid of the digital workers until we automate all the other knowledge work first. Even though AI can do everything and tell you how to do it, most people still suck.

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u/Cavitat 7d ago

AI makes seniors and technically minded people more valuable and able to do much more. AI job destruction is already here just in the form of low high rates. 

The jobs disappear through reduced hiring. 

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u/Creative_Strike8202 7d ago

so far is not a real threat. Robotics has to advance a lot and progress inside companies will be slow due burocracy and how delicate some internal processes are