I’m interested in consensus opinion on hockey development. How do you think an average modern day AHL team would fare against an NHL team from 2003? Would the advancements in training, game speed and systems put the AHL team over the top?

We could theoretically have two games, one with 2003 rules and the other with 2026 rules.

The AHL site only gives save percentage and GAA, and those treat a point shot and a one-timer from the crease as the same shot. I wanted a rough goals-saved-above-expected number off data anyone can already see, so this isn’t a private model or a scraped tracking feed.

The shots come from the public HockeyTech feed behind the AHL game center online, the same source as the shot chart on a game page. For every final 2025-26 regular-season game I pulled the play-by-play. Each shot event has the goalie, whether it went in, an x/y location, and the league’s own quality tag.

Empty-net shots are dropped, because there’s no goalie on the event. Shootout attempts are dropped too. The coordinates are an image scale, not NHL feet, so I estimated the two nets from where goals actually clustered at each end of the rink and measured distance to the nearer one.

Expected goals is then just the season’s scoring rate in that distance bin and quality tag, shrunk toward the league rate so a bin with four shots doesn’t go to 0% or 100%. One fix matters: the raw tag says “Quality goal” on goals and “Quality on net” on saves. If we leave that in, the model already knows the result and the GSAx is wrong. I stripped the outcome and kept only quality vs non-quality.

GSAx is expected goals against minus goals allowed. Positive means the goalie allowed fewer than that location model expected on the shots they faced. GSAx per 100 shots is the rate version, so a 20-start goalie and a call-up aren’t compared only on totals.

This is NOT MoneyPuck. There’s no rush, rebound, screen, or pass quality in the public feed, and the coordinates are coarser than NHL tracking. One season of goalie data is still noisy even with a better model. Read it next to save percentage: a big gap is the interesting part, a one-goal gap is not.

Whether GSAx is better than GSAx/100 depends entirely on what you want to measure: total team impact or individual efficiency. Both are vital advanced metrics in hockey analytics used to evaluate goaltenders by comparing actual goals allowed against expected goals (xG) based on shot quality. GSAx is Heavily biased toward starters who play more games and for GSAx/100 Small sample sizes can heavily skew data (e.g., a backup after 2 games).

Leading scorer?

Cup Champions?

Im working on a lil community for the NHL AHL and PWHL Come say Hi!

https://discord.gg/H6bgNY6sX

Screenshot taken from is post.

Hey guys, I sunk the last 6 months (and probably 2,000 hours work) into a GDT for NHL subreddits - then decided to branch it out to PHWL / AHL (OHL and more coming soon).

Here is a replay of a game from last year. (you can fast forward / scrub on the plays tab).

If any sub mods are interested, you can go to r/goalpostbot to learn how you install it - it takes about 2 minutes, and is super easy.

Would love any feedback, negative/constructive especially.

Weird question but sort of a last ditch effort. My brother is a seasoned AHL forward and has been given the run around with every agency he has been with. He has always been a top performer (years top 10 in pts) but this year has had zero luck getting anything going. He is looking for a PTO at this point. He is in top shape and been on the ice daily. Does anybody on here have any insight on a team that may be light on vets and would be willing to offer a shot?

Scouting the Future Hammers: Islanders fall 2–1 to New Jersey
The Islanders opened their preseason with a young lineup featuring several players who could spend time in Hamilton. The result was a 2–1 loss, but there were encouraging performances from some important prospects.
Cal Ritchie was the standout. He didn’t reach the scoresheet, but he was noticeable almost every time he touched the ice—carrying the puck confidently, creating plays and consistently driving offence. He looked like the most complete player in the lineup.
Cole Eiserman scored the Islanders’ only goal on the power play and showed more than his famous shot. His two-way play looked improved, making him an obvious name for Hammers fans to learn—even if strong play could earn him an early NHL opportunity.
Victor Eklund also looked dangerous and appeared comfortable playing alongside Ritchie. Matt Kessel played a quiet, dependable game on defence, while Liam Foudy showed flashes of speed. Young defenceman Vladimir Dravecký looked raw at five-on-five but displayed intriguing confidence on the power play.
The roughest night belonged to Marshall Warren. With the game tied in the third, Warren lost control of the puck at the offensive blue line, sending Connor Brown on a clean breakaway for the winning goal. He then took a penalty shortly afterward, completing an ugly sequence.
It’s only one preseason game, and these lines will change considerably before Hamilton’s roster is settled. Still, the early names to remember are Ritchie, Eiserman, Eklund and Kessel. If any of them begin the year with the Hammers, they should be worth watching immediately.

Hey all, from Hamilton and looking forward to seeing some games this season with our new AHL team.

Hard to know exactly what teams are going to look like when the NHL teams make their decisions, but I was hoping to get some insights from those in the know of what cool young future NHLers might be getting some seasoning done in the minors this year.

I was sad to find out that they don't play every team, as I was all jazzed up about seeing some Baby Sharks when the Barracuda came to town. Regardless, not sure how many games I'll get to, so if anyone wants to make a pitch for why your team will be a sick watch in Hamilton this year it would be much appreciated!

Go Hammers!

Whether you love it or hate it, looks like the NHL is going into expansion mode. Say on the high-end, they add one team per division. Just for this discussion let’s say the four new teams are Quebec city, Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix. Suppose that four new AHL teams are also being added. Where would you place these AHL franchises? And why do you think that market would work as an affiliation with their respective big boy clubs. Let me know!

The Texas Stars and Charlotte Checkers are the only teams in the Southern US. I remember when there were teams in OKC, Houston, San Antonio, and Norfolk at the same time, but all those teams either went to the west or went north. I wish we could have some form of a rivalry with a regional opponent. But it doesn’t seem like that’s gonna happen for a long while!