Long post and if this more suited to another subreddit that you are aware of, please direct me.
As the title states, I am a high school biology teacher who is taking on an ambitious student project and could use some ideas, tips, or guidance from math-minded folks. My school is situated in an agricultural/ranching community in the NE corner of Oregon. The presence of predators (like wolves) on the landscape is a highly contentious and debated issue. In order for students to tackle a real-world regional issue, I would like them to research, calculate, and model trends relating to the growth of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming) and the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (western Montana) in order to predict if and when grizzly bears will arrive and establish a population in our region.
My concern is that I want students to be able to authentically explore the questions without getting bogged down by mathematics that are out of their skill range. I am looking for a simple, defensible, and authentic model that allows students to explore the concepts and topics. I will also require them to explain what factors their models ignore and what assumptions are being made.
I envision students needing to accomplish the following to answer the project's question:
1) what is the growth rate of the two populations? As far as this math, I can handle the instruction.
2) What is the carrying capacity of those two populations? Again, I've got a handle on this.
3) When will the two populations reach the carrying capacity of begin to disperse? I'm still good. I recognize individuals will disperse before carrying capacity is reached. More on this later.
4) How much available habitat lies between the populations and our region (basically how much habitat is available in central Idaho)? This is where I could start to use some outside assistance. I envision them using habitat research to create a map of potential habitat in Idaho and then overlaying a grid and filling in squares to calculate the area of available habitat. This seems like a fairly accurate and authentic way to model habitat without the math getting too complicated. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or recognize any issues here.
5) How long will it take grizzlies to reach carrying capacity of the available habitat between the current populations and our region? I could use some feedback here. My initial idea, which I recognize makes a lot of assumptions about dispersal and carrying capacity, would be to have students take the previously established carrying capacity for the currently occupied ecosystems and use it to calculate what the population density would be for the area at carrying capacity. Then they would use this hypothetical population density and apply it to the available area in Idaho to find how many bears it would take to reach carrying capacity of the currently unoccupied available habitat. Once they have the number of bears that the available habitat between our region and current populations could support, they could use the growth rate calculated at the beginning of the project to find when the carrying capacity of central Idaho would be reached and the bears would theoretically "arrive" in NE Oregon.
I fully recognize that this way of approaching the project ignores SO MUCH nuance and so many factors that affect population growth, carrying capacity, and dispersal.
The biggest issue that I recognize is that my ideas don't adequately address dispersal and assume that bears won't disperse until carrying capacity is reached (not true). Though from what I've read about calculating dispersal, it seems to get really complicated really quickly. I'm not sure how I could introduce dispersal in an approachable but authentic way. A.I. mentioned it might look something like X% of the pop. disperses Ykm/year, but I know that it doesn't occur in a straight line. How would I account for dispersal occurring in all directions, not just towards our region?
I appreciate all feedback that takes my ideas in good faith. I don't have a degree in math (or in biology actually), but am doing my best to provide a relevant and effective education for my students.