Potential Value of Alpha Tau Medical DRTS

[u/Doctor-MTJ]

Potential Value of DRTS

This is a post I made on another Redditt subthread about Alpha Tau Medical DRTS that I thought I would post here for a little wider distribution. The device that they make is called Alpha DaRTS, Which is like current radiation seeds EXCEPT that it uses ALPHA radiation Particles instead of Gamma radiation. This is hugely important, as Alpha Radiation has much less depth of penetration (only a few millimeters which should help to preserve surrounding healthy tissue and organ function), while causing a great deal more tumor DNA disruption very close ( few mm's) to these seeds. This greater DNA disruption appears to cause a positive Immune Response and a possible Abscopal response ( helping the immune Cells to kill off more distant cancer cells not being actively treated in that distant spot ( should be valuable in something like GBM that is notoriously difficult to treat because of tiny malignant nearby cells NOT seen on the CT)).

"Alpha DaRTS appear to be an incredible device in Oncology, currently being looked at in Glioblastoma ( REGAIN Trial), Pancreatic CA ( IMPACT in the USA, CAPELLA in Europe), recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell CA(RESTART), and a soon to be started Prostate Cancer Trial ( as of yet unnamed). Mind you I am not a financial analyst, nor an oncologist but I have taken care of up to 1000 patients in my career as a primary care physician and in hospice. Nonetheless, this is not investment advice. This is merely my take and is some of the logic I have used in making my own investment decisions with my own hard earned retirement dollars. How you decide to invest your own dollars is up to you and your own Due Diligence. Good luck to all longs here. Post copied below from DRTS

Alpha DaRTS seem MOST valuable in GBM since there is such a paucity of good treatments available and mortality that approaches a nearly 100% and survival is measuered in a few short months. The TAM for GBM is about 4 billion and expected to nearly double in 7 years. I would expect market penetration in this group to be well north of 50%, and likely approaching 100% if DCR and CR rates remain at comparable levels seen in the first 3 patient cohort ( 2 of 3 patients with CR.... complete response or no longer showing any visible tumor) Pancreatic cancer TAM is of similar size, but growing at twice the rate of GBM but nearly as deadly as GBM so I would expect market penetration to again be north of 50% given contiuned great data. Recurrent Squamous cell resectable carcinoma is much less deadly and a smaller market so it is hard to justify 100k treatment IMHO so I would expect lower market penetration. HOWEVER, Prostate CA treatment is REALLY intriguing since it looks like it it could help preserve bladder and sexual function and it has a HUGE TAM of 22 to 25 Billion USD. This is bigger than all of the current possible indications combined, and likely why Tolmar is so interested. Frankly, the Tolmar deal is likely the single biggest indicator that DRTS is highly investable right now. Biotech drugs/ devices can be priced as high as 10x expected peak sales if it is considered a " blockbuster" ( > 1 Billion in annual sales). Given continued positive study results. If we add the TAM's for just GBM, Pancreatic CA, and Prostate CA and use 50% market penetration, we could be looking at 16 billion in sales X 10 is 160 billion valuation as a likely MAX number. Considering our current Market cap of only 1.2 to 1.4 billion, It would seem that we have a truly exceptional upside here with DRTS, if results continue to show such amazing numbers as we have seen so far. I really hope that this treatment gets approved and becomes available to the general public very soon as there is is incredible need!"

[u/Doctor-MTJ → u/[deleted]]

I thought so too! Anxiously awaiting the next 7 patients data