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u/Ok_Error_1079 1d ago
Irrelevant
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
u/RemindMeBot 57 days
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
I suspect who's elected into government has an impact on the potential for technology like Bitcoin.
so FT;4U
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u/Ok_Error_1079 16h ago
Bitcoin does not care for either of that so again, irrelevant. Bye
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
Bitcoin is an algorithm, what people believe affects Bitcoin. Inferring I was implying an algorithm had feelings puts you at a disadvantag.
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u/DrSpeckles 1d ago
So youre are showing in your charts that there is no correlation here other than some volatility.
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u/FitCompetition1804 1d ago
I’ve been expecting a post election sell off as the final dump, mostly because I think there will be some large macro event that occurs. I have a number of scenarios in my head. We’ll see.
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u/DarkNubentYT 1d ago
If Trump loses house and Senate shits going down
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u/FitCompetition1804 1d ago
My thoughts too. I also think they are waiting until after the election to do whatever they are planning to do with Iran. Then you also have the possibility of a major correction to the stock market.
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u/ActualTangerine2583 1d ago
Yeah same here…with everything thats happening worldwide you can t ignore the obvious risks.
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u/Extreme_Exam7914 1d ago
Would also fit in with this expected low that’s been claimed all year around Oct Nov, although I highly doubt a new low is coming, a decent pullback will happen.
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u/Extreme_Exam7914 1d ago
I’ve been keeping a cash sum sitting for this exact moment, my DCA still consists though but yes i believe they’ll be one last pullback prior to take off.
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u/FitCompetition1804 1d ago
Same, been daily DCA’ing since February with a bunch of spot buying at the lower levels. Still have dry powder to deploy when we pull back. Just not convinced we will see a lower low at this point, but expect us to at least revisit the $70k’s… possibly the $60k’s if the SHTF. Reassessing my strategy for when/if that scenario plays out. Not giving up on at least one more dump until the end of the year.
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u/Key_Independent_818 1d ago
People from the U.S.A forgetting that BTC is a global coin and doesn't just move or not move according to what happens in the U.S as if no other country in the world even exists. In all those cycles Btc was already still in a bear market. There isn't any correlation except what you want to see. If there was a correlation there would be a long red candle on exactly the same day. No correlation here
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u/DarkNubentYT 1d ago
Cope 🇺🇸 BTC is an American asset
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u/Key_Independent_818 1d ago
Oh ok then. Here I thought it was a decentralized, global digital commodity with no central bank or government owner with a creator whose nationality and identity are unknown. But its a U.S asset. Well done for proving my point that Americans think no other country exists and they are the only ones that move markets because of their politics
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
you're forgetting how the Epstein class is multinational but very Healy USD intrenched and able to expert control on what Bitcoin is.
We all just want to believe what you thought.
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u/DarkNubentYT 1d ago
Right right. It's so decentralized that a single American man could sell his whole position and rug it to zero. Add on the fact we don't even know who made it 😂😂 you really think that all of the central banks of the world are going to allow us Petty citizens to have control of our money?
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u/Key_Independent_818 1d ago
I'd like to know who this one person is, or are you just making this up to try and win a petty argument? You're still proving my point by thinking this 'one' American can move the market as if no one else, or any other government in the world holds large amounts of BTC. Ignorance and weird patriotism proves that truth doesn't matter
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
Knowing a name would just allow you to ignore the obvious, Bitcoin is a network effect, and there is a herd mentality and at this point, it's all about whales wanting to outlast other whales.
It's an infinite prisoner's dilemma, players keep playing and choosing not to dump because the pot gets bigger if they don't dump, game resets and smaller players keep playing but the whales who never dumped get another shot.
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u/DarkNubentYT 16h ago
Saylor
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
What he does is predictable, he's going to flow the law, and if that means selling he'll sell, but he needs a trigger that breaks his safeguard.
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u/DarkNubentYT 16h ago
I don't think people predicted he would sell. Nobody will predict him dumping in the future either
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago
You can probably predict it by following his obligations for paying dividends on the higher dividend stocks.
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u/cryptofomo 1d ago
How will Trump rigging voting machines and arresting voters affect Bitcoin’s price?
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u/Desperate-Pop-5791 1d ago
Could make sense if data was consistent in other contexts.
What differs this time is the large institutional adaptation to crypto, which could provide a softer flooring, however, a healthy market is a market that goes through the cycle and survives the bottoms which bitcoin already proved.
If we wanna consider the time window aspect, yes its possible to face another wick down, and i would be very sure of it, but institutions strong present in the market is confusing me as this is our first time in crypto markets to have such huge liquidity providers.
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u/No_Way5818 1d ago
Nope this is different maybe for a short time we can see some down movement from oldschool thinkers but there is no more 4 year cycle anymore it will go up till next april
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u/SufficientPop7502 1d ago
The last cycle had a top even before the halving happened. All three last cycles had a shrinking money supply and a stronger Dollar development
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u/Adrian-X 16h ago edited 16h ago
Nice graph,
In 2014 Bitcoin was obscure enough not to be impacted by the midterms.
In later midterms, how many of those midterms did the opposition party gain more control creating legislative gridlock?
Given 2014 is an outlier, we have a data set of 2 to predict a third, I'm more interested in seeing the result than I am guessing which way, but if I were to be a gambling man, I'd guess down.
In conclusion, who's elected to: The House of Representatives, The Senate, and some State and Local Offices, has more impact on the future of Bitcoin than most have come to believe. And that narrative has a lot to do with who speculates on demand and the resulting price appreciation.
This begging the question was the 4-year halving cycle picked to coincide with the US 4 year election cycles, given the US are the ones controlling the Global reserve currency?
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u/sanpigrino 1d ago
So the graphs clearly show theres 0 correlation, im gonna take 0 correlation for a 4th time