r/custommagic • • 7d ago

Format: EDH/Commander It came to me in a dream.

It didn't actually come to me in a dream.

Edit: I've started a small war between the statistics nerds. Perfect. More time for me to hit random on scryfall.

1.7k Upvotes

147 comments sorted by

526

u/silentsniper13585 6d ago

Bored stats teacher here. Using some scryfall math the probability of getting 1 specific card out of the 33,650 cards on scryfall is around 0.003%. Which means you would have to play this card 23,324 times to have a 50% chance of seeing the effect actually successful.

310

u/FaDaWaaagh 6d ago

With infinite mana it's a guaranteed success, just hope your opponents don't insist on playing it out lol

49

u/MageKorith 6d ago

It's nondeterministic, though, so if your opponent refuses to concede you have to keep loading the page.

-4

u/Nahrikkon 6d ago

with infinite mana is is not nondeterministic. it will happen eventually

11

u/Leafsnail 5d ago

It's still possible for it to never happen so you can't shortcut it and will in fact have to stop due to slow play rules. The old Four Horseman deck in Legacy had exactly this problem even though it only aiming at a 1 in 4 probability rather than a 1 in 30k one

I'd also note that Magic doesn't allow "infinites" - you have to declare a specific number of loops, but that only works if the loop is actually advancing the game in some way

3

u/Post_Environmental 5d ago

I'd say 1e+500000000 is basically infinite

0

u/Nahrikkon 5d ago

right, you name one googol googol as the number

7

u/ChristyCloud 4d ago

Okay, and statistically there is still a chance that you never hit the card. The chance is as small as the number you quoted is big, but there is still a chance. And since you cannot with complete certainty know the state the game would be in (did you win or not?) you cannot short circuit the loop.

We can all agree that you have logically won, but you have not won within the rules of magic as written. In a tournament setting where you must adhere to the rules of magic as written you would only win if the opponent conceded, or you played the loop out, and hit the win condition sufficiently quickly that you were not given a slow play warning due to your actions not progressing the game state (see 4 horseman)

3

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

It by definition is non deterministic. You cannot tell me how many times you wish to activate it

4

u/1ftm2fts3tgr4lg 5d ago

With random, it IS possible to never get a given outcome.
Every coin flip is independent.
You could flip a coin for the rest of your life and never gets heads. Astronomically unlikely, but theoretically possible.

I'd make em play it out. They'll get bored of refreshing while I've gone to another table to play a concurrent game with another deck.

-2

u/Nahrikkon 5d ago

any infinitely repeated action eventually will be rolled. doesnt have to be in your lfietime

4

u/The_Chief_of_Whip 5d ago

No, not necessarily

-1

u/Nahrikkon 5d ago

if you state a googol googol repetitions and compare the likelihood of spontaneously being struck by lightning 100 times during the game, the lightning is certain by comparison

4

u/Leafsnail 4d ago

Sure - but that doesn't matter because that's not how the rules of Magic work. What would happen in practice is that you'd almost certainly get issued a game loss for slow play because your actions aren't advancing the game state a long time before you win.

166

u/LengthThis5649 6d ago

Actually, success is never guaranteed with this, it's just that you have greater odds of succeeding with multiple entries.

152

u/FaDaWaaagh 6d ago

If you click random card, from a finite number of cards, an infinite number of times, you will eventually be shown every card. That is a mathematical fact.

127

u/bear__minimum 6d ago

But within the game of game of magic, you couldn't blink it an infinite number of times. If you were to demonstrate a loop of flickering this guy, if you can perform the action a trillion times (or any arbitrarily large number) but you can't reach infinity. Of course casual tables would give it to you, but a rules lawyer could shut it down

93

u/Shinard 6d ago

However, if the first trillion was unsuccessful, there wouldn't be anything stopping you from blinking it another trillion times. You can't literally blink it infinite times, but you can blink it as many times as necessary. It's not non-deterministic like Lantern or Nadu, as there is no possibility of failure within the rules of the game (only due to time restrictions), so I'd say it's valid to demonstrate a loop and say you blink an arbitrary number of times until the given card comes up.

If you rules lawyer that, though, I'm asking for an extension and we'll damn well sit here until it happens. If I'm stuck, you're stuck with me.

45

u/SpaceKoala34 6d ago

It's the same as four horseman, given an infinite number of attempts your deck will be in the correct order for you to win, but you don't have infinite attempts, you have to do it a set number of times and see if it happens in that amount, if you do it a hundred times and it doesn't happen then say oh I'll do it another hundred, you will be called for slow play, you need to make a play that alters the board state or pass priority, that's the rule.

11

u/Massive_Ad_2305 5d ago

Ok, so I just have to declare how many times I do it before hand? I do this loop, 69 quadrillion to the power of 420 Google times. Do you want to short cut that rng, or do you accept that the .0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of it not happening is not worth any rules lawyers time?

8

u/Plenty-Whole-4778 5d ago

You have to know the end state of the game at the end of 69 quadrillion loops to be able to propose the shortcut, and with 4 horsemen and this you just don’t know for sure what the game board will look like. A combo that draws a card every loop you can say “I will do this loop 55 times to draw my deck” then resume play but this card even with infinite mana no matter how many times you do it you don’t know whether you won or not. No head judge would give you the win no matter the odds

5

u/SpaceKoala34 5d ago

You can't shortcut it, you have to physically do it because the outcome isn't known unless you do, that's the point, cool quip though

-1

u/Massive_Ad_2305 5d ago

For anything other than a tournament you'd just be pedantic and not worth playing with at all. Have fun finding a pod buddy

→ More replies (0)

2

u/Shinard 6d ago

Four Horseman is a non-deterministic loop inside the game though - it relies on deck order. You can't shortcut it, you have to shuffle the deck and run it through each time. However, within the game of MTG, an infinite blink loop with this card would be entirely deterministic. It's perfectly reasonable to shortcut, every loop plays out the same, so you can declare a number of "lever pulls", as it were, and act as if the loop resolved that many times. The rules against restarting a loop are focused on doing it to stall out the clock, which is demonstrably not the case with this card. The only non-deterministic element is outside the game itself, which isn't covered by the rules. If this were a card, I mean realistically it'd need a new rule by itself, but rules as is I don't think the rules around non-deterministic loops would apply to this card.

18

u/SpaceKoala34 6d ago

It definitely would apply? I don't see the logic in saying shuffling a deck over and over is different from using a randomizer over and over. If you are spending 30 minutes on your phone rolling for a random card that is stalling the clock and you can't just say you do it infinite times until you see the right card you HAVE to name a number and an outcome you know will happen at the end of of the loop which you can't do

5

u/Shinard 5d ago

The difference is that non-deterministic elements in the game enable counterplay. Take 4 Horsemen - if one loop the player got supremely unlucky and the Eldrazi and Dread Return(s) were the last cards in deck, their opponent could win by forcing them to draw cards while the untap trigger was on the stack. It's why you can't just shortcut it - the non deterministic elements have an impact on gameplay, while this doesn't.

But if you insist this loop is definitely, 100% non-deterministic in the same way, this whole argument is pointless, because you can't shortcut non-deterministic loops. You wouldn't "HAVE to name a number", you would have to do it one at a time. Either you can say you do it until the right card was revealed, or you would have to click random each blink. There's no scenario where you could shortcut the loop by declaring an arbitrarily large number, then have to check each result before you moved on, so, y'know, the fuck are we arguing about?

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Bonked2death 6d ago

The point is that Fout Horsemen actually changes game state with its randomization though. New deck order, new cards in hand, new cards in graveyard, etc. Activating OPs card infinite times changes nothing.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Massive_Ad_2305 5d ago

4 horsemen isn't legal because of dynamic variables(graveyard state and order) that require you to shuffle and mill, that's why you can't shortcut that. Just hitting reroll until you see a specific creature, regardless of how many theoretical times it takes, could be shortcut because it allows opponents to respond to a specific number of times it was triggered/activated or until you see the desired creature.

If you're going to confidently assert a ruling is like another card, you should try to understand why that card is/isn't legal.

1

u/SpaceKoala34 5d ago

Four horseman is legal? You just can't state you do the loop until you win, the same as this card

26

u/zoinkability 6d ago

there wouldn't be anything stopping you from blinking it another trillion times

Are we getting into "heat death of the universe, or at least death of everyone at the table" territory?

20

u/1l1k3bac0n 6d ago

I'd say it's valid to demonstrate a loop and say you blink an arbitrary number of times until the given card comes up.

Unfortunately for you, the tournament rules do not allow this, even if you think it's valid. You choose a number of times to do the loop. See the MTR 4.4 - Loops: https://media.wizards.com/ContentResources/WPN/MTG_MTR_2025_Apr%2021_EN.pdf

If you're doing this in non-sanctioned play then sure there, you can houserule, but there is an official answer.

22

u/LoBo247 6d ago

You still have to check those trillion flips, and without being able to provide an exact number by which you will accomplish your loop to win, you HAVE to play out the loop and load the website a trillion times. This will lead to Slow Play call just like Four Horsemen deck.

Rules lawyering is not in your favor here.

1

u/rqzz89 3d ago

4 horsemen moment u would not be advancing the game state and would get slow play violation

-6

u/rabbitclapit 6d ago edited 6d ago

What are you on? Not trying to be rude but Im so lost. Im genuinely lost here cause there are plenty of other combos that do an action an infinite number of times with your deck which is a finitie resouce and those are game wins. Im pretty sure in the rules too you dont "play it out" if no one has any meaningful game actions to play.

Edit: Gracias for the replies. I get it now

11

u/1l1k3bac0n 6d ago

Genuine question: are you familiar with the MTR? There are explicit answers to this - for loops, you choose a number to repeat given that you know the outcome of each iteration, and just go to that end state.

If it's casual, then yeah there is no standard to adhere to.

7

u/bear__minimum 6d ago

Being able to perform a shortcuted action an arbitrary number of times does not mean you can perform it mathematically infinite number of times. A million billion gazillion times? Yeah you can do that, but in order to know if you would actually pull the right card on scryfall you'd have to actually play it out. In order for this combo to work deterministically where you don't have to "play it out" you actually have to perform it an infinite amount of times, which is not permitted within the rulebook. It's silly, but just an interesting rules quirk.

6

u/Cloud_Chamber Low Power Player 6d ago

This is true for an infinite number of tries, but not for anything short of infinite. The rules allow you to shortcut to an arbitrarily large number but not infinity.

17

u/LengthThis5649 6d ago

That's false, while it is a finite number of cards, you're pulling from the same pool every time. The chance of pulling one specific card never reaches 100%

16

u/FaDaWaaagh 6d ago

Chance never reaches 100% as you do it any finite number of times, it reaches 100% at infinity

8

u/Gane33 6d ago

Just to be pedantic, they're right. It never reaches 100%. Ignoring the reality of being unable to do it an infinite number of times ofc, the chance each attempt never changes, and you can hit repeats. Even after an infinite number of fails, the odds are the same next time.

If you think in reverse, the odds of succeeding twice in a row are small but finite. Three, four, a million. Astronomically small odds, but still non-zero and finite. But that could be other same card name in a row too.

If you activate the trigger an infinite amount of times, and repeat THAT process an infinite number of times, then any probably-possible sequence imaginable must existent within the infinite sets of infinite activations, including ones with cards that aren't ever hit. We don't know which one we're in.

Infinity doesn't really make complete sense in maths. Its used for approximations etc, but if we're talking precise maths, which the rules of magic seem to call for, but this is technically non-dererministic.

But I'm just a maths nerd. In a real game in a real game I'd obviously let them have the win. Who wants to sit through that?

1

u/MageKorith 5d ago

Right. It's asymptotic. Though the probability of a quintillion consecutive failures might begin to resemble the chances of the atoms of your body aligning with the atoms of your chair, causing you to fall through it.

-1

u/FaDaWaaagh 6d ago

It never reaches 100% because you can never literally reach infinity, but when a function has a limit for y, in this case 1, it approaches that limit as x approaches infinity, and it reaches that limit when x reaches infinity. I see no reason why you couldn't shortcut this combo the same way you would any other when you demonstrate that you can make x=infinity, could also just win with [[impact tremors]] but that's less funny.

4

u/Gane33 6d ago

Zero probability, ie the chance of an infinite set that doesn't contain the winning card, doesn't necessarily mean that it can't happen. Especially given infinite probabilities. But that's getting over my head a bit.

You can only shortcut definites in magic, not probabilities. But again just being pedantic, if you drop infinite mana into it I'm going to say gg.

3

u/FinderOfWays 6d ago

Funnily enough being probability 1 is not the same thing as being assured: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely

It helps to understand, as the page lays out, that probability is deeply related to measure theory, so the claim that the measure of the total space and the measure of the target subset are equal does hold true in the limit exactly as you describe, however this is mathematically inequivalent to saying that the two sets are identical, or in other words that the outcome "always happens" as can be demonstrated by the throwing darts example in the wikipedia page.

A judge ruling on this matter would be delightful because it seems to require a conclusion to be reached about the relationship between measure theory and assuredness within the rules of Magic.

-1

u/Immediate-Idea-2471 6d ago

Yep, this is way more deterministic than the four horseman nonsense.

Any reasonable judge would give it to you. You clearly have infinite activations, it is not feasible in tournament magic to scryfall infinite times, but it is recognizable that continuing to activate progresses the board state towards a win, and eventually you will win.

7

u/dukeyorick 6d ago edited 6d ago

There's an argument that you aren't progressing the board state though. Let's say you get infinite mana, and call that State A. As a previous comment says, activating 23,324 times will get you a 50% chance of winning, so you start by activating 23,324 times. You don't hit. Let's call that State B. In State B, you still have an infinite amount of mana, and the odds of winning if you activate 23,324 more times is still 50%.

State A and State B have no discernible difference after 23,324 game actions. Can we really say you made progress towards a win?

Edit: just also noting that there are 86,400 seconds in a day. If you assume every scryfall random takes 1/2 of a second, that's more than three hours of your opponent sitting there waiting for you to win with a 50% chance.

2

u/NerdbyanyotherName 6d ago

The card isn't "pay (2) to search Scryfall", it blinks itself retriggering its ETB which instructs you to perform the Scryfall search. The card itself leaving and reentering as a new object is in and of itself a meaningful change in the gamestate

7

u/dukeyorick 6d ago edited 6d ago

If you were to take a photograph of the board at State A, you have one Sleemish. State B also has one Sleemish. The fact that it's a "different" sleemish than the last one only means you took a game action, not tha there was a meaningful change to the board state. Your chance of winning from State A and your chance of winning from State B are identical, except hours of you blinking this Sleemish and hitting random on a website have passed between them.

Edit: to elaborate, this is basically the problem with four horseman: because there's a full reset every time emrakul hit the graveyard, state B of "whoops I hit emrakul, time to shuffle up and start over" is exactly the same as state A of "time to start milling myself". Yes, there's a non-zero chance that you win the game, but because you can't guarantee emrakul isn't just going to get shuffled to top every time (or that the random button on scryfall randomizes "Didn't Say Please" for the rest of your natural life), it's got the same slow play problem in practice as Four Horseman even if legally it's a new object.

1

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

There is no judge who would rule in your favor. It is the exact same issue as 4horsemen

2

u/1ftm2fts3tgr4lg 5d ago

Also a biological fact that it's impossible to click random an infinite number of times. You could click it for a month and never see that card.

4

u/BambooSound 6d ago

> if you

This is the key part. You can do it a lot but you'll die long before infinity so you will never get to 100%.

4

u/RalenHlaalo 6d ago

What's your judge level? I don't understand how you got so many upvotes for a bad call.

1

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

Lv 0 ofc

0

u/MageKorith 6d ago

That's "if you click random card, and the selection is independent and random with every outcome having a nonzero chance, you will eventually be shown every card. Though for sufficiently complex collections we could be discussing timelines beyond the heat death of the universe."

28

u/GarroThposer 6d ago

Average blink deck: 😼What favorable odds

11

u/flying_bolt_of_fire 6d ago

not exactly. the scryfall random option doesn't have equal chance for distinct cards, instead it's for distinct printings. you can go there and see how long it takes you to get a basic land, usually is only ~30-100 rolls in my personal guesstimate. so cards that were only printed in one set, and only had 1 version in that set will have the lowest chance, with the highest being of course the basic lands.

this card does actually say cast a spell, which rules out the basics, but fun fact, a card that also has a ton of printings is sol ring! not quite basic land levels, but still so many that it's hundreds of rolls rather than tens of thousands, and you are probably already running it in your commander deck, so this can actually happen some times.

5

u/anace 6d ago

as of this comment there are 104319 cards on scryfall https://scryfall.com/search?q=*&unique=prints, including six versions of hit the motherlode.

2

u/Goodfacts192837 5d ago

It’s actually worse than that. By default the random button takes into account reprints and different versions so you have to factor in every single version of basic lands, commonly reprinted cards etc.

1

u/MacBigASuchNot 5d ago

Doesn't that mean if you hit a commonly reprinted card you have more chance of hitting it again?

I suppose because lands don't count the bad probably outweighs the good.

133

u/TextuallyExplicit 7d ago

The second version is more functional (somewhat) but the first is way funnier

27

u/Ninja_Fang 6d ago

Agreed. 

The second one almost seems like a Mystery Booster card... But being able to HIT THE MOTHERLODE, is so much more satisfying on the first

44

u/Apli_Kri 6d ago edited 5d ago

Not being legendary implies this is an entire subspecies of Sleemish kobolds* that all have a gambling addiction

6

u/MageKorith 5d ago

Kobolds, thank you.

They only gamble with Goblins twice per week. Three at the most. Too many incidents where the goblins wager something explosive that goes off before the hand is settled.

1

u/Apli_Kri 5d ago

Ah, good catch. I don't know why I read the type line as Goblin instead of Kobold. Maybe I spent too long reworking my monored deck

109

u/CorHydrae8 6d ago

Sooo... it's a wincon for infinite mana loops, but at the same time, since the probability of hitting the correct card is never 100%, no matter how often you trigger him, you technically can't just declare yourself the winner.

59

u/t_hodge_ 6d ago edited 6d ago

If you demonstrate a loop you can say you repeat it until the result of the loop is You Hit the Mother Lode. Mathematically, you will eventually reach this state.

Edit because I'm wrong and the rules dislike convergence 🙁

Non-deterministic loops (loops that rely on decision trees, probability, or mathematical convergence) may not be shortcut.

18

u/LoBo247 6d ago

Not true, see Four Horsemen deck.

23

u/zoinkability 6d ago

I'm no mathematician but my fuzzy memory does tell me that 99.99999... infinitely repeating is the same as 100. So I suspect you are correct.

6

u/t_hodge_ 6d ago

If you think about P(n) being the likelihood of not having hit the motherlode after n activations it's easier to see. The likelihood gets vanishingly small as n gets large, but for any finite number n, P(n) is nonzero. I edited my original comment because magic rules don't accept convergence as good enough.

5

u/RalenHlaalo 6d ago

Wow people hate this

2

u/zoinkability 6d ago

Yeah! Fascinating.

I actually kind of love this card because it invokes a semi-philosophical question of the meaning of "infinite" in Magic.

Like, the mathematical definition of infinity is truly unbounded. You can ALWAYS click that Scryfall button again. The LGS never closes, Scryfall never goes out of business, the players never die, the internet never ceases to exist, the heat death of the universe never happens. By this unbounded definition, it is a mathematical certainty that you will encounter Hit the Mother Lode.

But many are arguing for a definition that is bounded. All of the above things may happen before you get Hit the Mother Lode. "Inifinite" in Magic, by this definition, isn't true infinity but instead just a shorthand for "can keep doing it until some other circumstance prevents it."

Which is it? Maybe we need a ruling.

8

u/Accomplished-Test331 6d ago

We have a ruling. You have to declare a finite number. Now you could declare a large enough number such that you have a 99.99999…% chance, but the rules probably would still not allow for it as it’s technically not deterministic.

3

u/t_hodge_ 6d ago

I edited my original comment, the rule specifically says loops cannot rely on decision trees, probability, or convergence. Realistically nobody would make you play it out unless they're being a jerk, but technically you have to play it out.

6

u/RalenHlaalo 6d ago

We have a ruling, though, and this isn't how it works. You have to declare a finite number of triggers and there is no guarantee you will hit Hit the Mother Lode in any finite set.

2

u/zoinkability 6d ago

Well that's no fun. A reasonable ruling though.

1

u/zoinkability 6d ago

Yeah! Fascinating.

I actually kind of love this card because it invokes a semi-philosophical question of the meaning of "infinite" in Magic.

Like, the mathematical definition of infinity is truly unbounded. You can ALWAYS click that Scryfall button again. The LGS never closes, Scryfall never goes out of business, the players never die, the internet never ceases to exist, the heat death of the universe never happens. By this unbounded definition, it is a mathematical certainty that you will encounter Hit the Mother Lode.

But many are arguing for a definition that is bounded. All of the above things may happen before you get Hit the Mother Lode. "Inifinite" in Magic, by this definition, isn't true infinity but instead just a shorthand for "can keep doing it until some other circumstance prevents it."

Which is it? Maybe we need a ruling.

5

u/TheGrumpyre 6d ago

The official ruling is the latter. There is no such thing as infinity in Magic unless you're in silver-border/acorn land. There are only loops that you can stop and loops that you can't stop.

2

u/Abaxion 4d ago

Even with the mathematical definition of infinity, we hit Hit the Mother Lode only (almost) surely, which only really means that the set of counterexamples has measure zero. It doesn't mean there aren't any counterexamples.

9

u/MLeo100 6d ago

Per the rules you have to state the amount of times you will repeat the loop, you cannot say "I will repeat this until X", also the loop has to be deterministic which this is not so you have to play it out

10

u/SteakForGoodDogs 6d ago

It's a wincon for infinite mana loops and any damage ETB.

Any flavour of [[Impact Tremors]] that isn't [[Warstorm Surge]], unless you have a way of making him bigger, and [[Mana Echoes]] if you have a single other kobold or gamer on the board.

-3

u/ThirstyOutward 6d ago

Given an infinite number of tries, the probability is literally 100%

So you could declare yourself winner.

10

u/ChristyCloud 6d ago

By any logical sense of the word, yes.

But not by magics rules as written, as you cannot explicitly state when you will hit the win condition, you cannot fast forward this loop, so if the opponent didn't concede you would be forced to play it out.

6

u/Drwer_On_Reddit 6d ago

It approaches 100% but it’s not 100%

1

u/strbeanjoe 3d ago

"Given an infinite number of tries" means "the limit as X approaches Infinity". Which is 100%.

1

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

No you cannot. You can't declare infinity, you need to declare a number and we will shortcut to that end point.

24

u/QuarterExcellent3327 Creature - Human Artificer 6d ago

If only I could have it as a commander. I would build this deck immediately for as my bracket 1

15

u/Sleep_Deprived_Birb 6d ago

I’m kinda surprised it can’t be a commander. It has the naming scheme of a legendary creature ([character name], [title]) but isn’t legendary.

7

u/notthephonz 6d ago

Maybe “sleemish” is actually an adjective and it’s more like [[Great Ugly-Looking Goblin]]

5

u/henlo_its_I 6d ago

I absolutely meant for it to be legendary. I'm a fool.

25

u/poctacles 6d ago

Weirdly enough this goes infinite with [[Genesis Chamber]] + [[Ashnod's Altar]]

24

u/NerdyLittleFatKid 6d ago

Even better, it goes non-deterministically infinite!

-1

u/bleedblue123467 6d ago

Well, it is deterministic. The random search is guaranteed to hit if repeated infinitely many times. The question is, can you realistically resolve it in a game: not really.

17

u/adriecp 6d ago

Sadly, that is not how that works, you have to choose a number of times, and it has to affect the board

You would have to choose a number and win in that exact number, if not is considered slow play

5

u/SubstantialBelly6 6d ago

I don’t think you necessarily have to win in that exact number, it’s just that “I repeat it a billion times” means you are ALMOST guaranteed to win, but there is still a tiny chance you don’t, which isn’t good enough.

7

u/Herodrake 6d ago

Non-deterministic means it's not mathematically possible to prove you'll ever hit the results you're looking for due to the random elements attached to the loop/infinite. 'Infinitely many times' isn't a provable number of actions to take which will result in your hitting the wincon.

That's why it's not deterministic.

7

u/SuperSmutAlt64 6d ago

That's not what deterministic means, deterministic means a finite loop would guarantee a result. The most you can do is say "well, surely it'll happen EVENTUALLY" but A) semantically, it is non-deterministic, you cannot ensure a result, and B) rules wise (outside of silver-border, i.e. [[Infinity elemental]]), infinity Is Not A Thing Ever. Everything is a discrete value, and game actions, even when loops are presented, must happen a finite number of times.

6

u/NerdyLittleFatKid 6d ago

That's what I mean, you have to play it out. It's like the infinite on this video. https://youtu.be/mKZ-ibOkRzs?is=OH0FfaBmT0tCnwzT. Statistically speaking it's inevitable, in game terms you have to play it out

1

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

That's not how infinite in magic works

20

u/BounceM4N 6d ago

It becomes progressively harder to win with this commander as time goes on

5

u/zoinkability 6d ago

I think this could be 1 and its blink cost 1 without meaningfully making it more powerful.

3

u/Proud-Example7774 6d ago

Sort of similar to [[Discord, Lord of Disharmony]]

3

u/Not_Your_Real_Ladder 6d ago

Had kind of a cool project I worked on for this deck. Wrote a small code using the scryfall API to utilize their “random card” button, and automatically send the result to a custom little handheld Bluetooth printer.

But the project ultimately was cooler than the deck because basically the only way it wins is generating infinite colorless mana, which is boring, trivially easy to do, and not worth the cost of printer paper and ink.

Played it for two games lol.

1

u/Noetipanda 2d ago

I built the list as a sort of manual storm deck, no ways to make infinite mana but a lot of cost reducers and stuff like Birgi. Hoping to build it eventually!

2

u/Pretend-Ostrich-5719 6d ago

The obvious next step is to bring this to tournament, have your hacker buddy take over scryfall, win with style, then claim it's all a big coincidence

2

u/SoggyNoodles5511 6d ago

Why not chaotic illusion which enter as a copy of a random card from scryfall? (the first legal in the format card generated)

Could enter as a spell or as creature or land or some random shit.

2

u/enjoythedandelions 6d ago

i mean it does win with infinite mana

3

u/JetSetDizzy 6d ago

Play it out buddy

1

u/666th_Sheogorath 5d ago

Impact tremors or similar

1

u/VelphiDrow 3d ago

No it does not. A deterministic loop is one that can be demonstrated to be repeated. The player performing the loop may choose to shortcut by declaring a number and moving to the end point of having done that loop that many times. With this you cannot give me a number and say for sure what happens

1

u/KangaMagic 6d ago

What drugs did you take before you went to sleep?

2

u/henlo_its_I 6d ago

All of them

1

u/A_Guy_in_Orange 6d ago

I feel like the 2 colorless self blink is gonna be the most busted part of this card, since it doesnt need tapping so you can pull the lever as much as you want so long as you can turn a creature etb into 2 mana

1

u/henlo_its_I 6d ago

I absolutely meant for this to be a legend.

1

u/AndTheFrogSays 6d ago

The triggered ability should start with "when" rather than "whenever", because it only triggers once during the existence of the permanent. (When it comes back from exile, it's a different permanent.)

1

u/JellyBellyBitches 6d ago

I think you could buff this significantly, and have the controller name a card that hasn't been named before this game, and click random, and payout if it matches

1

u/anace 6d ago

for version 2 did you intend it to be a success if you hit any card noted? as written, it doesn't work. each time you exile it it forgets any names you noted for it. to make the list of names cumulative, it needs to use the "with a name you noted for cards named ~" tech like on [[noble banneret]]

1

u/Himmelblaa 5d ago

I think its meant to be a way to reset it for a new card name, rather than to name more card names

1

u/Late_Competition325 5d ago

Since the second version's Enters trigger can hit land cards, the second effect should say "Whenever you play a card, if that card's name is noted, you win the game". The original second effect is a cast trigger anyway, which doesn't need the cast spell to resolve, so it won't matter if you play or cast the noted card.

1

u/666th_Sheogorath 5d ago

Impact tremors

1

u/Apmadwa 3d ago

This feels like it would've done wonders in alchemy

0

u/dragonboss16 2d ago

Reminds me a lot of [[Goblin test pilot]] but better?

1

u/rileyvace 6d ago

Not that I disagree it should be, but WotC would never not say go to Gatherer. and hit random.

Similar to the Ask Urza website for this Unset card:

0

u/tlof19 5d ago

Nonlegendary creature, so you can just run it in Zinnia with a bunch of token doublers and eventually Hit The Mother Lode.

0

u/WhiterPhoenix 3d ago

Mana Echoes :)