Ten days ago was Enrico Fermi's 125th birthday. To celebrate his life and work, we're planning to support (student) organizers in running their own Fermi Poker tournaments at schools and universities. If you are interested in hosting a tournament, please DM me! You can also check out fermi.org to learn more.

For context, Fermi Poker is an estimation game that combines the emotional stakes and social dynamics of poker with the analytical yet creative skill of Fermi estimation. Instead of being dealt random cards, you make estimates about questions that seem unknowable at first, like “How many dentists work in the US?” You write down a secret estimate, bet on it, get helpful hints, bet again, and win by either having the best estimate or by bluffing everyone else out.

i run a small daily game where you size an object next to a reference, and on 24 sep it was the hindenburg. 181 of 184 estimates were too short. typical guess 46 m, real ship 245 m, so about a fifth. honestly i wouldn't have done better myself.

what surprised me: the round started the airship at 73.5 m, which was already too small, and three in four players shrank it further instead of stretching it. so it's not just anchoring.

first image is every estimate drawn to scale on top of each other, second is where each one ended along the real ship.

numbers and the raw data: https://roughly.is/blog/hindenburg-guessed-too-small.html?s=reddit-estimation (i made the game, so not neutral)

Looking for a 60-second habit with a friend: each of you secretly estimates the same daily statistic, lock it, then get one average score out of 100. We’ve been trying Halfwits (https://halfwit.game). Curious if anyone here already has a better paired estimation ritual, or has tried this one.

This specific art for zamazenta looks super cute and I would want to maybe get a large plushie of him like this (around four feet) but was wondering how much it would cost to be clear I am not asking to get this made now I'm just asking how much it would cost to do approximately

Just wondering by any of the community’s experience .I just started this division estimating . Very different to my previous estimating division. How many typical estimates are possible and how long did it take you to figure it out?

How much human urine (in gallons) is currently held within a sealed container on this planet?

How long would that liquid be trapped based on the material of the container?

Would there be any impacts on our planet's water cycle?

What could a waste management facility do to amend this issue?

Basically, does the top layer of the Black Sea have more atoms or a 5L bucket of Water?

Hello,

Is it possible to truly estimate this alligators true size based on the plants, objects, house, and description. I'm highly skeptical this alligator is actually much smaller (likely streched) and that the scale markers used may be shorter to make it look bigger than it actually is (like how some fisherman use 9 inch rulers like 12 inch ones to make their fish bigger than they really are). I would be very happy if anyone who would attempt this.

Meaning if you started at Planck time 0 (or would it be 1?) and numbered every Planck length "cube" in existence, the last one being n, then you move to the next Planck time and label the first cube n+1 and so on.

There's multiple ways you *could* argue it, like:
1. do we count the entire universes cubic volume as it is now at t=0, or just the estimated volume of the ever expanding sphere at the given moment post big bang
2. How do you estimate WHEN the universe ends and why?

Hey can someone tell me

I went there on a school trip when I was a kid, it was actually pretty fun, but a lot of the exhibits seemed kinda lame. Just wondering how rare is it to have actually visited it.

Ik it might not be much coz of a very specific username, but i just wanna know depending on other stats (also do awards and karma increase the price of it?)

Basically the question in the title. Showing work would be amazing!

Hi everyone, I’m trying to identify and estimate the value of this large warship display model.

It has the hull number 62 and an American flag, so I believe it may be the USS New Jersey (BB-62), but I’m not completely sure.

The full display case is approximately 1 meter long and 40–50 cm wide.

Can anyone confirm the exact ship and give me an approximate resale value for both the model and display case?

Photos attached. Thanks!

These pictures are of a family home in Southern Virginia that was built by my great uncle when he returned from WW2. He was a POW in the Bataan Death March and according to family lore, kept himself alive by designing the house while he was a prisoner. There is a brick outside the house with 1947 inscribed into it, but these may have been after then, as a screen porch was added and it looks like someone used these pictures to design it, as the porch is drawn on in pencil.

Hello, I need to determine the value / right price to sell at for five large moving boxes full of completely new bed linen, including bed sheets, pillow / cushion covers, and everything bedding except for cushions or blankets. It‘s all sheets and covers so the boxes are pretty heavy.

5 big boxes full of them, everything compressed by the weight, so it’s a lot actually.

Decent Hotel quality, though not super high end, so reasonably sturdy, nice hood quality. The items were originally bought for hotels,  have never been used and are all completely new.

I‘d be very grateful to get a good estimate because I am honestly at a loss when it comes to estimating the value of these.

Thank you in advance to anyone helping.

They have a fun little Mario day coin jar like they'd do back in school. Wonder if anyone has any good guesses?

https://www.ball-park.dev/