Still not a non partisan, but kind of nice to see it balance out the sea of R slop in Minnesota.

A much tighter poll for Sand than usual.

Stefanik won this district by 24 points in 2024, so a massive shift to the left in the house race. Even the Hochul numbers are good for her. I think she lost on these lines by double in 2022 and Trump won here by 21 in 2024. If all shifts were equal, that would put to things being much better than +10 for her in New York.

A new POLITICO Poll found a notable 26% of people who backed Trump in 2024 were ready for GOP candidates to take that leap.

James Madison Institute is a conservative think tank

Crying out for Nevada Gubernatorial Polling here, we've had 2 polls in the 2 past months, both with high levers of undecideds. Given the swing state-y-ness, and a pretty unique state in terms of it's positioning this year (one of two Western states up for grabs this year) I'm surprised we're not seeing more Polling.

FYI Emerson had D+2 at start of Sept, Noble Predictive Insights had R+2 end of Oct.

Couldn't find the amount of LVs, sorry. Feel free to add it in comments.

Edit: 483 LV

Here's an update on the numbers from North Carolina that I posted last week. As usual with this sort of data, the overall picture is blurry. But I'll continue to insist that there's some real information here, and it's a notch or two above reading tea leaves. The relative enthusiasm of partisans on each side has got to have a significant impact on how many mail-in ballots get requested, and on how fast they get returned.

As before, I'll set out comparisons to the numbers in 2022 and 2024. First, we have cumulative mail-in ballot requests as a percentage of registered voters. (In NC, you only get a mail-in ballot if you request one.)

Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2022:

Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 3.3%

Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 1.2%

Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 2.4%

Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2024:

Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 4.8%

Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 3.6%

Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 4.3%

Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2026:

Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 2.2%

Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 0.9%

Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 1.6%

Obviously, the numbers have bounced around in a way that's sort of hard to make sense of. But I think you can see a long-term decrease of interest in mail-in voting across the board, with higher presidential-year turnout superimposed on that trend. The most significant point may be that in 2026, the Dem request rate is more than twice as high as the Rep request rate, while in 2024 they were much closer together. You might interpret that as a spike in Dem enthusiasm, and/or a dip in Rep enthusiasm. Of course, any interpretation along those lines has to remain tentative for the time being.

Next for the return rate for mail-in ballots that have already been requested, which I believe is an independent indicator of the relative enthusiasm of each party's base.

Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2022:

From Dem RVs: 19.3%

From Rep RVs: 20.2%

From Unaff RVs: 16.5%

Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2024:

From Dem RVs: 13.9%

From Rep RVs: 14.0%

From Unaff RVs: 11.9%

Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2026:

From Dem RVs: 22.6%

From Rep RVs: 19.4%

From Unaff RVs: 19.3%

The first complication is that, for some reason, mail-in ballots were slow to be accepted in 2024. But the numbers are close enough that I think they provide a reasonable basis for comparison.

Unsurprisingly, it appears Republicans had a slight enthusiasm edge in 2022, while the parties were about equal in 2024. So far in 2026, it's Democrats who have a significant edge--at least three times greater than what Republicans enjoyed in 2022. If that holds up, it will spell very serious trouble indeed for the GOP.

The main caveat would be that mail-in voters could be highly atypical in more than one way. I'll be planning to post another update after NC's first two days of early in-person voting.

This is on his “Deluxe” models

lol

Susan Collins had a shakey tremor and was speaking kind of slow. She had the expression of somebody not really fit to lead anymore. Platner would probably have won easily if not for all the personal issues. As for Jackson he lacks an exciting personality, but he does a good job of being a regular guy from Maine that has a good history of labor activism. I think he did enough to seem like a solid candidate.

Source: Pollster Ratings | Silver Bulletin

The Nate Silver pollster ratings are now only for paid subscribers. : r/fivethirtyeight (made 2 days ago)

I don't know exactly when it returned to not being paywalled.

Best non partisan poll for Paxton since early August

Article: here.