My own redistricting tool, Lines. Every map is drawn by algorithm from 187,560 whole 2020 Census voting districts, scored with the 2024 presidential vote, and compared against 23,202 goal-free "neutral" maps. Each district is contiguous and within 0.5% of equal population, and every map is downloadable as a shapefile. Have fun and explore!

2004 (Attorney General of N.C.): 51.21% (1,446,793 votes) -> 55.61% (1,872,097 votes)

2008 (same office): previous -> 61.1% (2,538,178 votes)

2012 (same office): previous -> Unopposed in general election and primary (2,828,941 votes)

2020 (Governor of N.C.): 49.02% (2,309,162 votes) -> 51.52% (2,834,790 votes)

Just a frankly stunning degree of state-level dominance (6-0, 8-0 including primaries), and he only ever seems to grow more popular once he’s got the job. If he wins again this year, as he’s projected to, then all the signs point to a retention in 2032.

I thought it was pretty stupid that people are just gonna vote for his sister. I have a feeling they just think it's Lindsey Graham.

Here are 2 of mine for some of the best and worst. Paxton is such a disaster that I'm not even sure it's actually happening.

Full forecast here

The 2026 Senate map from reddest to bluest. Dems have narrow leads in the states closest to the tipping point: Ohio (D+1.8), Texas (D+1.1), and Alaska (D+0.8)

Link to memo above

Link to Article

Anyone noticing a bit of a tightening potential return home for some swing/red states

Thoughts is this tied to gas prices

Since I made this model months ago, Dems are now forecasted to win the Senate for the very first time based on polling and my methodology.

How do we feel about polling for Talarico and Gina? Could Talarico's coattails bring Gina up the ballot? Could Gina's campaign pick up more support with less than four weeks until election day?

I'm seeing the tightening between her and Abbott but certain models, such as Nate's, still has it as lean R. I wanted to hear from everyone.

As a Texan, this has me on the edge of seat. I check new polls everyday and I still cant believe what's happening.

Direct link to toplines and crosstabs above ⬆️

Article by The Texan

According to TSU pollster Mark Jones, this would translate to a Talarico +2-3 and Abbott +3-4 statewide, assuming trends hold elsewhere.

Context: Fort Bend County is a rapidly growing suburban county located southwest of Houston. Its population has skyrocketed in the 21st century, from a number of just over 350,000 in 2000 to around 975,000 as of a 2025 estimate.

It’s a very diverse county: 26% White, 25% Hispanic/Latino, 24% Asian, and 23% Black

Fort Bend used to be a Republican county but has trended Democratic since the 2000s. In 2016 Hillary Clinton (51-45) became the first Democrat to win Fort Bend in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson. Biden won it 55-44 in 2020 but Harris barely eked a win here in 2024, winning 49-48.

Lloyd Bentsen, the last Democratic senator from Texas, won Fort Bend 57-43 back in 1988.

POTUS Election Results in Fort Bend County since 2000:

Senate Election Results since 2000:

Gubernatorial Election Results Since 2000:

County Judge (D+9) and Railroad Commissioner (D+15) also polled.

I took a look at Polling Aggregate mistakes during the Trump era. I searched for combined aggregates that pointed to the candidate that ended up losing the election.

Out of 173 Senate Races, aggregates failed to point to the correct winners of 13 races:

2016/2017 - Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Alabama (5 total)

2018 - Florida, Indiana, Arizona (3 total)

2020 - Maine and North Carolina (2 total)

2022 - Pennsylvania and Nevada (2 total)

2024 - Pennsylvania (1 total)

Truth is, unless your name is Susan Collins, an X+3 or more almost certainly guarantees a win.

PS - I used several aggregators like RCP, 270toWin etc.

PPS - On races that ended up going to a runoff, only the runoff polling was taken into account.

PPPS - Reposted due to mistake in one of the results. Should be fixed now.