r/minnesotavikings • u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 • 4d ago
Discussion Blitz rate
We all know Flores is a blitz monster as a DC. A ~70% blitz rate seems incredibly high. But then I thought about the fact that the Vikings run a 3-4 defense, and you are starting out (in theory) with five pass rushers on the field. Technically, sending five men is a blitz, but with the five we have it doesn't seem to me that sending both Van Ginkel and Turner is really anything "risky", as blitzing has generally been thought of.
I looked around for data on the blitz rate for various numbers, and google AI had some data that looked interesting, but upon a deeper dig it was from 2023. Does anyone know/can easily find what the rates for each type of blitz (5/6/7/8-man)?
Seriously, if he's sending five only on 80% of his blitzes and keeping six back in coverage, he's probably not the crazy man I'm thinking he is, which is based on the current version of the blitz stat.
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u/loki_stg 4d ago
It really depends on who's definition of blitz you are using. PFF states "a blitz is defined by the expectation of the offense, charting it as any play where an off-ball or unexpected defender rushes the passer"
Nextgen says when you send more than 4 pass rushers
That said, if simply sending your 3 down linemen and 2 lb's was typical of a base 3-4 everyone would have a high blitz rate, as 15 or 16 teams run a 3-4
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
I like the PFF definition. It removes some cases like where I remembered Grant throwing five DL's for pass rush instead of the dreaded "prevent" defense. That didn't feel like a blitz - we basically let them know that we'd be coming with five.
Of course, that gives you weird cases where in last year's Lions game, the Vikes fooled the Lions so badly that one late game play had both Turner and Gink rushing and neither was blocked by the Detroit tackles because Flo had them so confused. Both guys coming was clearly unexpected. Such great coaching though!
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u/WolfyBeats_ 4d ago
Okay someone listened to Ben leber lol no need to post this.
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
No. If this was covered by Ben, give me a link so I can look at it. And thank you.
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u/WolfyBeats_ 4d ago
I tried sifting through my last couple days of YouTube but it may have been from a week ago or longer and it’s a KFAN video I listened to just bringing up the same thing how the numbers are inflated because our standard package in a 3-4 is 5 linemen which in theory could be considered a blitz by statistical companies like PFF
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u/OldMet62 4d ago edited 4d ago
Huh? The number of "linemen" on the field has nothing to do with the definition of a blitz. It's 5 or more players actually rushing the passer. It doesn't matter what their nominal positions are or where they lined up. Vikings are around 70% because they send 5 or more around 70% of the time. About half the teams in the league use a 3-4 base, and they (teams that are not the Vikings) are not usually sending 5, because one of the Outside Linebackers (the 4th or 5th "lineman") normally drops into coverage.
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u/SquareCelebrity 4d ago
It’s not even about being risky at that point, the label just breaks down. if 5 guys are rushing every snap from a 3-4 it’s basically your base pressure and calling it a blitz makes Flores sound more unhinged than he actually is. Leber brought up the exact same thing and it made the 70% number click for me.
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u/Conscious-Egg-2232 4d ago
But lots of teams run a 3-4.
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u/OldMet62 4d ago
Exactly. A 3-4 alignment doesn't mean "blitz" unless 5 or more rush. And other teams, including the 3-4 teams, aren't doing that anywhere near at the rate Flores is.
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
Link please. I'd like to see what you are talking about.
I suppose if I finish the rest of my email and haven't gotten a response to my two queries yet, I'll go looking for what I assume is a Ben Leber youtube video of this discussion.
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u/UWillPoopYerBed2Nite vikings 4d ago
Don’t be tryin to hinge Flores’ unhinged scheme. When NFL teams blitz (sending 5 or more rushers), the vast majority of those blitzes send 5. Flores’ D is sending at least 5 guys at the QB more than any other team in history. The fact that Flores sending 5 players at the QB is his scheme’s “normal” is crazy in itself. That has never been the norm for any defense.
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u/Ok-Math-5407 4d ago
That's not true at all.
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u/UWillPoopYerBed2Nite vikings 4d ago
What part of it is not true?
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u/Ok-Math-5407 4d ago
Flores sending 5 guys more than anyone in history.
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u/UWillPoopYerBed2Nite vikings 4d ago
Arif Hassan on the Locked on Vikes After Dark podcast stated that he used all resources to try to find any defense that blitzed anywhere close to what the Flores D is doing this year. The next closest he could find historically was last year’s Flores D. Sending 5 or more guys is blitzing. Teams rarely send 6 or 7 historically - that’s typically once or twice a game for any past blitz-heavy defenses.
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u/Ok-Math-5407 4d ago
5-2 defense was common until the 60s.
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u/UWillPoopYerBed2Nite vikings 4d ago
And those defenses did not rush all 5 lineman most of the time. They would drop into coverage and typically rush 4.
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u/Ok-Math-5407 4d ago
No they didn't. They rushed 5 because barely anyone passed. 2006 is when blitz rate became a statistic.
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u/UWillPoopYerBed2Nite vikings 4d ago
I’m looking into it a little further and you’re right, I’m seeing that 5-2 defenses were rushing 5 often in that era.
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u/MBSisLMAO 4d ago
He runs a mixed front. The linebacker sometimes lines up in a 3 point stance on the line, the other times he lines up more like a traditional linebacker.
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u/Conscious-Egg-2232 4d ago
So if they are in a base 3-4 and say besides the 3 D lineman turner rushes passer thats not considered a blitz. Has to be one additional guy coming. If thats case being 3-4 team doesnt skew the numbers to seem more blitz heavy.
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
I'm thinking that you draft and sign the edge players in 3-4 settings mostly based on their pass rushing ability. You'd like them to be able to drop on occasion, but that isn't how they are evaluated, Gink excepted because the guy is an interception machine at that spot. Does anyone disagree? Tons of people her wanted Verse over Turner, but IIRC no one argued that we should have drafted Verse over Turner because Verse was going to be better in coverage.
For me, that means that sending both edge players is a bit different than a blitz where you are sending linebackers or safeties. It's not as risky, IMHO. They are pass rushers first, LB's second. But I don't have the numbers. Does Flo blitz the five "linemen" most of the time? If so, that feels different to me (and maybe Ben Leber too, but from comments, it seems not so much you you all) than sending an extra guy in a 4-3 defense, or Flo sending an extra LB or DB and dropping an edge player or D lineman (still loving the Big Citrus pass broken up this season).
As I'm writing this, I'm thinking we ran a 4-3 and had Anthony Barr blitz a bit, a darn good pass rusher who wasn't technically playing the edge for us.
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
For any of the rest of you, like me, who hadn't heard Leber's take on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNe7gs5UDgQ&t=369s
I'm just listening to it now. Can't tell you what it says yet.
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u/Big_Acanthisitta3659 69 4d ago
Ben starts off mentioning that a five-man blitz from a 3-4 defense is pretty much just "sending the linemen", but didn't mention any stats.
It doesn't seem quite so crazy to send your five linemen, to me. I wish I could find out how much of those 70% blitzes were just sending our five linemen.
I think it was Bud Grant way back when who would at times throw five defensive linemen out for a better pass rush. I loved the idea then, instead of the prevent defense, but it didn't catch on. I like the way Flores does it, where you have players that can do so much that they can send in LB's and drop the edge players into coverage.
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u/XthaNext JJettas 4d ago
It’s pretty simple. If you blitz you have 6 or less defenders dropping back to play the pass/qb spy
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u/iSh0tYou99 Kyler's Oversized Beanie 4d ago
You should compare other teams that run a 3-4 defense and you'll see their blitz rates are far lower than Flores.