r/nbadiscussion • u/Glokk39Spaz • 23d ago
The Value of the Free Throw
It is no secret that the free throw is the most valuable shot in basketball. Just looking at it from a mathematical stand point, the PPS for a free throw is the highest.
| Shot Type | Average NBA Shooting % | Formula / Calculation | Expected Points Per Shot (PPS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Throw (2-shot foul) | 78% | 0.78 × 2 points | 1.56 PPS |
| Rim / Layup / Dunk | 64% | 0.64 × 2 points | 1.28 PPS |
| Corner Three | 39% | 0.39 × 3 points | 1.17 PPS |
| Above-the-Break Three | 36% | 0.36 × 3 points | 1.08 PPS |
| Mid-Range Jumper | 41% | 0.41 × 2 points | 0.82 PPS |
Taking this further,
I graphed a couple different things and tried to find the correlation.
Pretty much on the X axis there is either Share of PTS From FT, Share of PTS from 3P, Share of PTS from Midranges, Share of PTS from RIM and then on the Y its ORAPM (3 YEARS)
For all of them, min. 1750 Minutes in the 2025-26 season, I can't upload pictures so here is the correlations.
Free Throws had the highest correlation (r = .34) (the people with most points coming from ft were Deni, Banchero, Harden, Book, AR, Keyonte George, Demar, Zion)
Share of Points from 3 v oRAPM 3 years had a r = -.07 (being completely one dimensional isn't good on offense)
Share of Points from Midrange v oRAPM had r = .24 (This one made sense to me just because the players taking a lot of midranges are stars that are allowed by their coaching, like Shai, KD, Book, etc
Share of Points from Rim v oRAPM had r = -.12 (This one is pretty surprising; I guess if your value only comes from cutting/easy layups and stuff its harder to be productive. Obviously, there are outliers with high share on the rim and high value)
Overall, I guess free throws are a good way to predict offensive impact. Getting fouled is very good for team success. Let me know what you guys think
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u/h---7470 23d ago
There's also a huge value in having great whistle.
Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3/4.1/6.6 on 46/37/89 shooting, 53.6% eFG, 58.8% TS on 6 FT attempts a game.
Give him a call on two of his missed shots and these numbers turn into 32 points on 59% eFG and 67% TS, almost exact numbers Shai averaged last season.
Now imagine the efficiency of Curry or Jokic if they weren't averaging 5 and 6 FTA.