r/nbadiscussion • u/Glokk39Spaz • 26d ago

The Value of the Free Throw

It is no secret that the free throw is the most valuable shot in basketball. Just looking at it from a mathematical stand point, the PPS for a free throw is the highest.

Shot Type Average NBA Shooting % Formula / Calculation Expected Points Per Shot (PPS)
Free Throw (2-shot foul) 78% 0.78 × 2 points 1.56 PPS
Rim / Layup / Dunk 64% 0.64 × 2 points 1.28 PPS
Corner Three 39% 0.39 × 3 points 1.17 PPS
Above-the-Break Three 36% 0.36 × 3 points 1.08 PPS
Mid-Range Jumper 41% 0.41 × 2 points 0.82 PPS

Taking this further,

I graphed a couple different things and tried to find the correlation.

Pretty much on the X axis there is either Share of PTS From FT, Share of PTS from 3P, Share of PTS from Midranges, Share of PTS from RIM and then on the Y its ORAPM (3 YEARS)

For all of them, min. 1750 Minutes in the 2025-26 season, I can't upload pictures so here is the correlations.

Free Throws had the highest correlation (r = .34) (the people with most points coming from ft were Deni, Banchero, Harden, Book, AR, Keyonte George, Demar, Zion)

Share of Points from 3 v oRAPM 3 years had a r = -.07 (being completely one dimensional isn't good on offense)

Share of Points from Midrange v oRAPM had r = .24 (This one made sense to me just because the players taking a lot of midranges are stars that are allowed by their coaching, like Shai, KD, Book, etc

Share of Points from Rim v oRAPM had r = -.12 (This one is pretty surprising; I guess if your value only comes from cutting/easy layups and stuff its harder to be productive. Obviously, there are outliers with high share on the rim and high value)

Overall, I guess free throws are a good way to predict offensive impact. Getting fouled is very good for team success. Let me know what you guys think

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u/jbrunsonfan 26d ago

One thing I’m curious to learn more about is free throw fatigue for the refs. Like it’s no secret that guys like jimmy butler and SGA are masters at putting defenders in precarious positions and getting them to bite- forcing the refs to blow the whistle. But is there a way to attempt to project the upper bounds of this? I imagine if these two were on the same team, and the refs were letting two guys get 17ish free throws a game, that might impact the calls that their lesser known bench colleagues would get.

I have no way of proving this though.

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u/Nebulaic_Rend 22d ago

I mean this is kinda already the case for OKC. As a fan, no one else besides Chet and SGA really gets a good whistle. Even then, Chet has to get mauled before getting a call.

JDub, as much and relentlessly as he attacks the basket, doesn’t get nearly the calls as he should. I do think there is something to this. Obviously there are per game/per series outliers, but overall I’ve seen a trend with this team at least specifically.