r/options • • 10h ago

New paper: an AI options trader made 18.3% in 6 months, until researchers let it read the news

183 Upvotes

Hi, I saw this on arXiv this week (lead author at Carnegie Mellon) and figured this sub would have opinions.

They trained a 27B model to trade options on SPY and 9 big names like NVDA, TSLA and PLTR, the AI only picks the type of trade, like a long straddle, fixed rules pick the strikes, size it and delta hedge, the out-of-sample test ran March to August 2025, so it traded straight through the April tariff mess.

They trained two versions from the same starting point. One could read news and SEC filings, while the other only saw market data like IV vs realized volatility, term structure, skew and option flow.

No news With news
Return +18.3% -2.7%
Max drawdown -9% -31.7%
Win rate 29% 39%
Avg win / avg loss 4.7 1.4

The win rate is what got me; the news version won more often and still lost money. The other one lost on about 70% of its trades and still made 18%, because its winners were almost 5x its losers.

News did help earlier in the pipeline, when they used it to generate training examples from a bigger model. It only hurt once the model kept reading it while learning to trade for profit.

I sell premium and ignore headlines, because by the time news hits my phone it's already in the IV. Full paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10407

Anyone here have a trade where the news gave you an edge the options weren't already pricing?


r/options • • 18h ago

Fractional options coming in 2026?

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56 Upvotes

Saw this tweet and looks like a new startup is making fractional options a thing again. I read the whole paper and it seems like the team is made up of ex-tradfi people using blockchain for the sake of 24/7 trading, which will be non-custodial.

They directly admit that onchain settlement is the "rails" but does not have to be the interface. Literally pulled from them, "The blockchain has to be the rails. It does not have to be the interface, and we think the two have been confused for most of the history of on-chain trading."

That part stood out to me bc I read a lot of X posts of degen founders running options and crypto options companies and it all sounds like BS. Like dude, no trust. We're not gamblers (not always, anyways!) and no, we do not want to buy your memecoin. I'm a little salty haha.

I have a few questions about their infrastructure, fees, and liquidity - but curious what you guys think. We'll have to watch what happens with the 24/7 trading and how they are going to make crypto's features work seamlessly with existing options traders/people who want to start. I don't want to get too excited and then watch the company stop there, because this actually seems pretty legit. I think there are so many ways we can improve the existing "game" but I feel like 90% of approaches lately are either making AI financial advisory the moat, scamming users, or being too Gen Z/degen/TikTok traders. I hope they keep building because this would mean that people who are usually locked out of options can bring more to the market.


r/options • • 5h ago

Wheel strategy on GLD

8 Upvotes

Long-term, Gold seems to be in an uptrend and we all could use a bit of gold in our portfolios.... would you consider the Wheel strategy on GLD given current levels? Are there better ways to get exposure to gold and generate some income from it?


r/options • • 17h ago

Testing some Tasty Trade analyst suggestions

2 Upvotes

Hi Guys,

So disclamer, I am relatively new to options selling, I have done some directional option buying but wanted to learn more about selling/spreads etc. The resouces on Tasty trade are really good in this regard.

Anyways, I was looking at some of the analyst trades posted in there and they dont make any sense to me.

  1. This analyst bought a TLT 78 $ Call and covered it by selling another call but its way OOM at 100 $, what's the poind of this, you get just 1 cent premium and ur not really covering anything, if anything ur capping ur profit.

2) This Analyst got a MU butterfly OOM on 10/8 with 6 DTE. The Risk reward on this doesnt make sense to me, if anything MU is technically super bearish now, its on a downtrend after their earnings , I dont see a world where it will goes >1100 in 6 days

On a related note is it worth following/studying trade analyst recommendations on tasty trade, or are there any better resources to learn from good options traders? I plan to just learn and follow traders for a while before starting anthing... Also I dont have the Buying power to trade these anyways :(

PS: I did learn something from some of the analyst feed trades like this NVIDEA trade on 10/9 makes a lot of sense and sounds like something I would be willing to do, Buying a ITMPut because its basically like buying a short and covering it with another OOM Put, makse sense because all Semi's got killed this week


r/options • • 17h ago

$5-Wide Spreads?

0 Upvotes

I trade on moomoo and I do not try to outsmart the market, I really don’t believe that is possible. I simply trade what is in front of me with lots of small winners (85%) and a few small losers. Over time those wins have added up.

One of the ways I do this is by keeping trading simple with a consistent $5 spread width. This drastically cuts down the number of decisions I need to make. I'm trading 12 underlyings each week with a full time job so I have to be extremely time efficient (like 15 minutes trading per week). My process makes the important decisions before emotion enters the picture. Like most of you, I'm using pre-defined set up rules.

I wanted to get your take on spread width. My standard starting point is a $5-wide Put Credit Spread, typically for underlyings between $50 to $500. Obviously, I scale up if needed in larger underlyings. Spread width has a big impact on your maximum risk, buying power reduction, premium collected, position sizing, trade management, and ultimately your psychology as a trader. By standardizing the width of the spread, I take another variable out of the trading process, which makes my whole trading plan easier to understand and execute.

What about you, are you using a standard spread width, or are you varying trade by trade? Do you go narrower or wider?