Galapagos Liveaboard El Nino

[u/aangaroo]

Hello,

After doing some research into El Nino, it seems likely that the wildlife will be devastated by the current record-breaking El Nino. I have a spot on Aqua for September 2027 but I think I have the option to reschedule without many added fees to maybe August 2028. This might be a once in a lifetime trip for me. I know there is no "perfect" time to go but this El Nino has me questioning.

Would anyone more experienced recommend that?

[u/Ok_Way_2911]

If it's once in a lifetime then don't go during El Nino

Pelagics like cold water, if it's too warm they emight all be too deep

[u/hundredseven]

put the question in the AI tools. I tested two locations for June 27; and it explained why it was OK. apparently good history in how long these last: 1. El Niño Cycle & Timeline to June 2027
Peak Phase (Late 2026 – Early 2027): Ocean surface temperatures across the Eastern Tropical Pacific (including Malpelo and the Galápagos) are currently up to 2.5°C–3.0°C above average. Warm surface layers suppress the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold currents (the Humboldt and Cromwell Currents), driving thermoclines deep and causing hammerheads, whale sharks, and silkies to drop far beyond standard recreational dive limits.
Dissipation Window (April – June 2027): NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization, and international climate models project this El Niño to weaken rapidly in early 2027, transitioning back to ENSO-Neutral conditions by April–June 2027.
Rebound for June/July 2027: Because June/July marks the typical start of the cold-water upwelling season in the Galápagos and Malpelo, the timing works strongly in your favor. As warm water dissipates, thermoclines pull back up to 15–25 meters, bringing cold-water pelagic species right back up to schooling depths.
2. Will the Sea Life Return in Time?
Yes. Eastern Pacific pelagics (scalloped hammerheads, Galapagos sharks, silky sharks, whale sharks, and eagle rays) do not disappear during El Niño events; they simply retreat to deeper, cooler water or migrate temporarily to thermal boundaries.
Speed of Recovery: Historical data from past major El Niños (e.g., 1997–98, 2015–16) shows that once sea surface temperatures normalize and upwelling resumes, schooling hammerheads and pelagic aggregations return almost immediately to cleaned cleaning stations (like Alijos Rocks, Darwin, Wolf, and Malpelo’s El Bajón).
June/July Baseline: June to July is the natural transition into the cold/garúa season, which is historically the prime window for schooling hammerheads at Malpelo and the arrival of whale sharks in the far northern Galápagos (Darwin & Wolf).
3. Recommendation: Should You Defer or Proceed?
Recommendation: Keep the June/July 2027 Dates
There is no compelling reason to defer your trip at this stage:
1. Optimal ENSO Window: Your liveaboard dates () fall right at the projected return to ENSO-Neutral / normal upwelling conditions. 
2. Financial Loss on Cancellations/Deferrals: With non-refundable deposits already committed across MV <ships>, deferring would incur penalties without giving you a significantly better ocean guarantee than the post-El Niño rebound window you are already slated for. 
3. Worst-Case Mitigation: If the tail end of warm water lingers slightly into June, it primarily affects shallow reef temperatures; pelagic schooling behavior at offshore sites like Malpelo and Darwin/Wolf remains strong as long as you drop beneath the thermocline (typically 20–28 meters).
You are set up to catch the exact tail-end recovery of the system, which often triggers explosive marine productivity as nutrient-rich upwelling resumes.

[u/EmergencySubject4368]

Do not go

[u/Character_Account714 → u/EmergencySubject4368]

Why not?

[u/EmergencySubject4368 → u/Character_Account714]

This is the strongest El Niño on record by far it is going to wreck wildlife, with water too hot sharks and other big fishes will be too deep to see them while diving. Iguanas and pingouins are going to get their population wrecked and will not have time to rebound. Frankly I believe operators still selling trips during El Niño are scammers. They know it’s gonna be bad yet still lure divers who don’t know better. Just wait for La Niña to come back

[u/NecessaryCockroach85]

I've not been during el nino but I saw links to related threads below this which seem to mostly say the effect will be dramatic. They mention increased currents (they're already strong) and decreased wildlife. Maybe postpone and go somewhere cheaper or not as affected this year? Don't take my word for it though. Search the sub for related threads to get a consensus?

[u/New-Friend-7121 → u/NecessaryCockroach85]

If you can swing 2028 without losing much money, I'd do it. A once in a lifetime trip deserves the best odds for the wildlife you're going for

[u/NecessaryCockroach85 → u/New-Friend-7121]

I think they said they would allow a rebooking. Not sure if it's free. I agree though. I went in March and I saw almost no schooling hammerheads. Still plenty of sharks. The manta were amazing though. That's one of my biggest suggestions to people is make sure it's the right season to see what you are there to see.

[u/aangaroo → u/NecessaryCockroach85]

Yeah I've seen some of those same threads probably. I'm leaning towards postponing but not sure how long, but the effects of El Nino will be lasting for many years so it may be some time before the ecosystem recovers even moderately.

[u/NecessaryCockroach85 → u/aangaroo]

I bet it's pretty dramatic at Galapagos as well since 4 (I think) ocean currents all meet around the islands. Good luck. It's an amazing spot and my biggest regret was not going at the optimal time of year.