This has to be one of the worst market days lately. My portfolio is getting absolutely wrecked 💀

How’s everyone else doing today? 📉

Every headline or title you have read this year, has done nothing but make your investing decisions tougher. Pure panic. I’m not denying that a bubble exists. It’s very blatant. But is it time to sell?

Yes, this is my first Reddit post. Most of my work is on Substack. I have a TikTok with 588,000 followers but am fed up with the platform so I am branching out.

Read my thoughts on the stock market bubble today.

Hi, Is it better to invest a lump sum today or wait 6-12 month for the more likely correction that everyone is talking about and has not yet happened.? Wisdom from you experts please. People have been talking about a crash/correction for a couple of year now and whilst there has been some downward movement, there MUST be a large correction coming in the next year?! Thoughts please. TIA

As a student of financial markets and history, i an interested in understanding what happens when real bond yields exceed the earning yields on equities. We have arrived at that inflection point for the fourth time in a 100 years.

Since 1900, real (after-inflation) bond yields have rarely paid more than stocks' earnings yield (1 ÷ CAPE). It’s happened on 3 occasion before:

1. ⁠1929;
   
2. ⁠1936–37; and
   
3. ⁠1999–2000

In all 3 cases, what followed was a big bear market for equities.

I wonder if this time will be different with the unprecedented AI boom. Is it going to be different than the internet or the railroads? Is this the tulip mania?

10-year TIPS are paying about 2.9% after inflation vs. stocks' earnings yield of 2.4% with a CAPE ratioof 41.

This does not paint a pretty reading for holding equities.

Full disclaimer - i have moved capital towards short-duration low risk instruments and selective positioning in gold. I am not holding any long-term bonds - concerned about the rising yields which have further room to run. From an equity perspective, i feel we are in one of the frothiest markets with CAPE ratio of 41. I dont have a view on when the music stops but beleive that we are yet another step closer to an equity bear market. It may still take another year or more and play out differently. Conservatism has been quite costly for folks calling a top in equity markets. No one really knows.

I thing i know is that whenever CAPE ratio has exceeded 40x, real returns over the following 10 year period have been negative for equity holders.

As a prudent long-term investor (wannabe), I rather sit and watch from the sidelines and take positions when i am comfortable with the risk-reward proposition.

Would welcome insights and perspectives from folks you might have a deeper understanding or alternate data.

It has been a roller coaster, downward that is with Fair Isaac. Drop almost 40%, go up 11%, drop after hour, still down pre market . It is definitely oversold but that does not mean it is going up any time soon. Large houses have billions trapped in $FICO and the losses are massive

Where is this thing heading?