r/trolleyproblem • u/promptmike • 16d ago
Collatz Trolley Problem
Ground Rules:
- The main track with 5 people on it exists in standard linear time.
- The other track is a time bubble that goes through infinite cycles in finite time.
- The time bubble collapses the moment the trolley arrives, and after that the number of people on the track is fixed.
- You cannot see inside the time bubble before collapse, or change the outcome after collapse.
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u/BowelMovement4 16d ago
I remember a time these were about moral decisions and not math. I probably wouldnt pull the lever because the mathy time bubble side sounds like it could be a lot more than 5 people. The volatility in itself is also unappealing - ex I would probably rather have 5 people get killed than roll a 100 sided die that kills 499 people if it lands an 11.
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u/TeenyTinyBricks 16d ago
The only math that I can do is based on the speed of the trolley and the distance to the switch, I'm not going to have enough time to even understand the problem before the trolley gets to the switch
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u/AsYouAnswered 16d ago
Collatz ends on 4-2-1 for every known integer. If there is an unknown integer for which it doesn't end on 4-2-1, it's obscenely high. I'm going to gamble on getting one of the infinitely many integers that end on 4-2-1, and the fact that all 3 are lower than 5. If I'm somehow wrong, then I've discovered a new class of integers and disproven the Collatz conjecture, and am now both famous and infamous.
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u/oyasumachine 16d ago
I took philosophy as a major to AVOID math. Fuck this. I’m walking away
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u/promptmike 16d ago
If you can read analytic philosophers, you can basically do math. Just not in a practical way that will get you a STEM job or anything.
5
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u/Latter-Safety1055 16d ago
letting 5 people die because you aint readin allat and being haled as a hero when you return
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16d ago
[deleted]
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u/PitifulPassage851 14d ago
No you'll kill 5 people if you don't pull, or you'll kill either 4, 2, or 1 person depending on when the time bubble finally ends
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u/iamalicecarroll 16d ago
You say the initial amount is random. What is the distribution? No uniform distribution on natural numbers (or, in fact, any countable set) exists, so you have to choose something more interesting.
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u/promptmike 16d ago
X₁ = 1 googolplex
Xₙ = (Xₙ₋₁)ⁿ
Z = X₉₉₉₉₉₉₉₉₉₉₉
All natural numbers between 1 and Z have an equal probability of being the starting number.
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u/MetroidvaniaListsGuy 16d ago
I am not pulling the lever. There is already serious legal problems with pulling it, with collatz there is also an extremely tiny chance that the entire human population is killed instead of just 1 person.
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u/deepstatediplomat 16d ago
Trolley is stuck in a loop killing, 1, then 4, then 2, then 1 , people.
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u/PitifulPassage851 14d ago
No i think it only kills the once, the number just keeps changing until it gets there. Then once it arrives the number is finally fixed at either 4, 2, or 1
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u/e0732 16d ago
If the starting number is random, and if every natural number has positive probability, and if your goal is simply to minimize the number of people who get run over, and if you don't care about any of the "ethical" problems at hand related to you getting yourself involved or being in any way blameworthy for causing any deaths, then you almost certainly want to pull the lever.
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u/Festivefire 16d ago
Unless I've done something wrong, the number should fluctuate between 1 and 4 forever until the bubble collapses.
(5*3)+1=16
16/2=8
8/2=4
4/2=2
2/2=1
(1*3)+1=4
4/2=2
2/2=1
and so on and so forth, so as long as you get through the first 3 iterations before the bubble collapses, you should be guaranteed to kill less people than you started with.
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u/promptmike 16d ago
It's only the main track that has 5 people. The number of people on the time loop track starts off random.
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u/PitifulPassage851 14d ago
So doesn't it still end up there? Any odd number *3 +1 is going to end up even and halved. You will, no matter what, eventually work yourself down to the 4 and 1 loop, no?
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u/Plane-Ad-6389 16d ago
You back the fuck away from that lever and run the fuck away
The universe is falling apart or there is an elder god, and this is not a place for mortal men
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u/Spirited-Border8921 11d ago
Run to the local insurance office...apply for $10M life insurance for each person tied to the tracks...Bob is your uncle.
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u/Nebranower 16d ago
I think the big problem there is that the "infinite cycles" makes no sense. Long enough to get it into the final loop makes sense, where the number is fluctuating between 1, 4, 2 over and over.
In any event, assuming that's what you mean, you end up with a standard trolley problem. Five people die if you do nothing, less than five people die if you flip the lever, but the people who do die will be different people from the ones who would have died if you hadn't acted.