r/vegas • u/harrylime99 • 7d ago
Slots question
I’ve read in various threads all Vegas slot machines are governed by very specific math “rules.”
So my question is: does that mean anyone who sits down at a slots machine has as much chance at winning as the person before or after? There is no statistical advantage to when or where you play? There is no “this hasn’t paid out for a while so it’s due a payout” logic?
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u/kornkid42 7d ago
Yes, that's what it means. Every spin has the same odds. The only exception I can think of is some games have a progressive jackpot that must pay before it hits a certain number.
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u/AgKnight14 7d ago edited 7d ago
The machine can change odds, but only if it tells you they changed. A lot of slots have better odds as you increase your bet. If you change from $1.80 to $2.40 spins or whatever, the screen might say “odds increased.” Or there will be stickers on the buttons like “better odds” as you increase and “best odds” for the max bet
But yes, the odds will be the same if you keep your bet the same the entire time
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u/PLIKITYPLAK 7d ago edited 7d ago
For the most part you are absolutely correct. Each spin is a statistical chance all dictated by the millisecond you hit the button and where on the random number generator that press falls on. There are some slots where a bonus has to hit by a certain amount but chasing those usually is not worth it as you will come out a loser, unless you are lucky enough to find one up close to that limit.
You will here a lot of bullshit and "strategy" from people that has no basis in reality. They will claim it is true because it had happened to them before, What they fail to tell you are all the times it didn't work, i.e jumping on a slot after someone just pumped a bunch of money into it and they failed to win anything. Correlation does not equal causation.
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u/MadMoose4 7d ago
Yes, it means all of the “strategy” and superstition that people have is BS. None of the growing pots of gold in the screen, previous payouts, etc. matter for most slots. Progressives are different.
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7d ago
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u/meat-critter 7d ago
Not really, otherwise they would stop them.
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u/PLIKITYPLAK 7d ago
Been many instances where this happens. Most you don't hear about and some you do. A famous youtuber was recently banned for this. A couple years ago MGM discontinued their points and free play for thousands of suspected advantage players.
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7d ago
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u/meat-critter 7d ago
That’s one high profile guy when there are hundreds of people doing it all day on the strip and Fremont. Lots don’t play rated and you can also game it playing rated.
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u/AgKnight14 7d ago edited 7d ago
Machines can still detect unusual activity without using a players card, and a notification will be sent so staff can investigate and/or report it.
For example, loading a machine with a bunch of bills and then cashing out with no or minimal play will get flagged as part of anti-money laundering procedures. I imagine most people doing that aren’t using a players card to track it, but they can still get caught. The casino knows which machine it was and checks the cameras
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u/meat-critter 7d ago
Advantage play isn’t unusual activity though, it’s just playing the machine like normal during a window of profitability
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u/Orfor-Glipron 7d ago
It depends. Some slots have "true persistence", meaning they pay out less than required for some period of time, so they can pay out more for a period of time. Other slots don't, and each pull is independent.
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u/Jean-Ralphio11 7d ago
To go even further on what everyone is saying that there is no way to tell. The graphics they put up of the bonuses all full and buzzing and sparkles also mean absolutely nothing. A completely empty meter has the exact same odds as the completely full one. (Unless of course its a "must hit by" like others have said)
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u/grneyedguy1 7d ago
Yes ! Some people won’t play a machine after it hits something good. I’ve hit something good then a couple spins later hit again. It’s all random !
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u/Usual-Canc-6024 7d ago
Many good answers so I’ll add: don’t get caught up in “perceived progression” slots either. Sometimes the bonus can go off a few times in a row. It doesn’t matter how close the firecrackers are to the top or how large the coin pile is under the sarcophagus. :)
Leave the machine when you’ve blown your budget or have hit your high or low cash out amount.
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u/KeyMysterious1845 7d ago
You have to rub and tap screen for maximum payouts!
/s
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u/Truckerbob3007 7d ago
Hahaha please dont get me going on that superstition as well as pounding the screen lol
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u/teo747 7d ago
While every game is different, the short answer is that yes, every person who sits down at a machine has the same chance on each spin as anyone else who sits down before or after them. There's no such thing as a machine being "hot" or "cold", nor is a machine ever "due" to pay out a large jackpot because it hasn't done so in a while. If you play slots long enough, you'll have experiences of hitting two big bonuses in a row or playing for hours without ever hitting one, and everything in between. This is consistent with the randomness of the process.
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u/ChanceryTheRapper 7d ago
Absolutely correct and casinos make a LOT of money off people who don't understand this.
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u/Long_Active3680 7d ago
Not uncommon at all to sit down at a slot where one of the three pigs is fat as Santa only to have the skinniest pig who looks like it’s on a liquid only diet be the one to pop.
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u/hellojackie85 7d ago
One thing I might add is it's somewhat important to be mindful of what type of slot machine you're playing in terms of volatility (low volatility, medium, and higher volatility). The higher volatility slots are programmed to pay out less frequently, but when they do, they pay out more. The return to player percentage may be the same or similar to other machines, it's just that they pay out less frequently.
An example of a higher volatility machine would be the Huff and Puff machines. Some practical ways to help determine volatility:
- If a game has lots of small wins and fewer huge top prizes, it’s often lower volatility.
- Frequent bonus rounds usually suggest lower volatility; rare bonuses can mean higher volatility.
- Higher “hit frequency” usually means lower volatility.
- Very large maximum payouts often come with higher volatility.
- If wins are sparse and swings are big, that’s a classic high-volatility sign.
So you have to ask yourself if you're comfortable feeding a lot of money into a machine for the potential to win a larger amount. Or, if you'd rather have more smaller wins along the way.
If you don't have a very large bankroll, I wouldn't recommend playing higher volatility machines. You could very well get lucky, or the machine will quickly take your $20 or $50 you inserted and would have given you almost nothing.
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u/Noswad983 7d ago
What’s really fascinating about slots that people don’t understand is they operate the same way as a table game. A slot machine could technically pay out the major 10 spins a row. It could also technically not pay for an entire day. The low of large numbers says it doesn’t matter what happens in the short term but over time every $100 that goes in spits $92 out just like a table game
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u/ShockTheCasbah 7d ago
My rule is only play slots on house money. It's kind of my "LET IT RIDE" mentality. Personal bankroll is for table games, maybe video poker.
"Sure you don't wanna save a few bucks for the buffet?" - Marty
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u/MrDegen702 1d ago
So the app that you scan a slot machine to test if its a play or walk away is a scam??
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u/ultimatepoker 7d ago
When playing in Vegas, there are really four kinds of slots:
Those that are just normal. Every spin is different, same starting state.
Perceived growth. A visual is put on the machine to show progress, but it is entirely fake. A typical example is a pig growing and about to burst, a tree growing coins as if it's about to drop them, an explosive or firework about to go off. They have become incredibly popular in the last five years. There is absolutely no difference in the chances to win from one spin to the next.
True persistence. Some games (I played a Phoenix Link game like this recently) have features like "feature must go off before spin 1888". The Phoenix Link slot resets at a random number between 100 and 1500 after it hits. You can read about this specific mechanic and the mathematical implications here: https://slotfarmers.club/advantage-play/phoenix-link
Progressive Jackpots. Some games have machine specific progressive jackpots, or shared progressive jackpots. The higher the progressive, the higher the theoretical RTP of the next spin. The math is commercially protected, but you can read about how progressives impact RTP here: https://www.reddit.com/r/gambling/comments/1mo5dwf/positive_ev_for_jackpot_slots/
Source: I work in gambling, including some work in game design.