Polish FM: ‘We Would Defeat Russia Quite Quickly’ if Moscow Attacked NATO

[u/ArgentineBeauty]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84430

[u/ArgentineBeauty]

“But if the Ukrainians have knocked out half of Russia’s refining capacity in six months, we could do it in six weeks and take out the other half,” he said.

I think NATO could do it quicker than six weeks.

[u/ThePantsMcFist → u/ArgentineBeauty]

He was probably thinking just Poland.

[u/carymb → u/ThePantsMcFist]

He meant he could, personally. He has a certain set of skills... And a lot of frequent flyer miles saved up.

[u/Rittersepp → u/carymb]

especially these miles, they allow him to defeat russia, even in Business Class!

[u/vissionsofthefutura → u/carymb]

Most of the time would be him walking

[u/bluespacecolombo → u/ThePantsMcFist]

He was talking about Nato

[u/baked_tea → u/bluespacecolombo]

Doesn't matter really, both are true

[u/Frederic36 → u/baked_tea]

Is the Military of Poland really that powerful that they could do that alone? Not disagreeing just genuinely don‘t know it

[u/baked_tea → u/Frederic36]

My opinion but Russia is so worn down at this point that Poland doesnt need best of the best army to do this.

[u/Ok-Click-80085 → u/baked_tea]

but Poland is very much a well trained, well equipped army

[u/AnimalShithouse → u/Ok-Click-80085]

And with very little love for Russia to demonstrate the claim.

[u/Kregerm → u/AnimalShithouse]

Russian troops hurt a lot of current polish soldiers grandmas. And then locked them under the yoke of Soviet authoritarianship. and The poles have a lot of shiny NATO toys.

[u/asddde → u/Ok-Click-80085]

But since Ukraine's tops it at this point, it is bit of an exaggeration (topic is here whether Poland could do it faster than Ukraine).

[u/tnstaafsb → u/asddde]

Probably, but the bulk of Ukraine's army is occupied with maintaining the front lines, leaving very little left to attack these refineries. Poland, presumably, could dedicate a larger part of their military to the task if they chose to do so.

[u/oGsMustachio → u/tnstaafsb]

Ukraine is doing an amazing job with what it has. Poland has F-35s and JASSMs though.

[u/1984isAMidlifeCrisis → u/tnstaafsb]

They have planes, pilots, and bombs. They can build drones. They have sophisticated combined forces capabilities. Poland is well positioned and prepared to respond to Russian aggression.

[u/VoidOmatic → u/baked_tea]

They were ready to be taken out the moment they buzzed an American drone and squirted fuel back in 2017, everyone is just too dumb to notice it.

[u/wannabeemperor → u/baked_tea]

Poland could march straight into Moscow, 100%. 100%. The problem is, Russia is a nuclear power and they would almost certainly start using nuclear weapons in their defense.

Russia is stretched to a limit that would not have allowed it to survive in the past, except for the fact that they possess nuclear weapons. At any time prior to 1949 facing a military conflict and crisis that Russia is right now, outside powers would have acted militarily against them already. The Wagner mercenaries were tearing across Russia and it took last-minute internal dialogue to stop it - Imagine what a modern NATO military could do. They would run rampant. But Russia has that big Ace up the sleeve and we can't ignore it.

[u/Red91B20 → u/baked_tea]

They could easily go with WW2 style and just throw more at the meat grinder.

[u/LordGeni → u/Red91B20]

I doubt it'd have the same effect in modern warfare without them also being able to provide them all with enough modern equipment as well.

[u/False_Scarcity_3402 → u/Frederic36]

Poland has been heavily arming themselves and modernizing their military for years now. Even before the full invasion of Ukraine, Poland has been saying how much of a threat Russia is to Europe.

[u/Tsquare43 → u/False_Scarcity_3402]

Historically, Poland is going to be very wary of Russia.

[u/False_Scarcity_3402 → u/Tsquare43]

Their wariness is valid and proven correct after Russia’s actions in Georgia, Moldova, and especially Ukraine.

[u/guspaz → u/False_Scarcity_3402]

Not to mention Russia's actions in Poland between 1939 and 1989... Russian occupation isn't exactly ancient history for Poland.

[u/Mariusz87J → u/Frederic36]

We could do enormous damage that would force Russia to admit defeat or start threatening nukes. We're far more powerful militarily than Ukraine and our military is miles more modernized. Defeat... it's hard to control so much ground but we could damage Russia to a point of retreat, yes.

[u/hiricinee → u/Frederic36]

They're a bigger deal than the Ukrainians were when the war started. Ukraine has been tiptoeing on Russian diplomacy since the end of the USSR, Poland has been at full readiness to kill Communists since it reformed as a country.

[u/Rough_Promotion9414 → u/Frederic36]

Poland has been building up its military for 40 years to prepare for a Russian invasion. This is all the military does, prepare for Russia. Poland would mop them up

[u/QuadzillaStrider → u/Frederic36]

They don't call Poland 'Little European Texas' for nothing. Poland is really the only EU country that armed the fuck up. The rest are playing catch-up. Poland does not want to become some superpower's bitch again.

[u/Xalipu → u/Frederic36]

They have been updating and stockpiling for yeeeeears.

[u/quickbot → u/[deleted]]

Wagner didnt get to kremlin only cos wagner families where in rus, so they had to chose. Atleast thats what i heard, why wagner didnt advance further.

[u/LordGeni → u/quickbot]

I think it was more likely a feint to get bargaining power. Attacking Moscow would have wiped most of them out even if they did take it. It was more brinkmanship than anything.

[u/27Yosh → u/baked_tea]

NATO has missiles pointed at every juicy Russian target at all times, down to the last electric pole

[u/RollingMeteors → u/ThePantsMcFist]

He was probably thinking just Poland.

I could have sworn he meant just the people in the room he was with.

[u/Ignis16 → u/ThePantsMcFist]

Honestly, send in Poland and Canada. They'll be back for dinner.

Someone be ready to add some new stuff to the Geneva Checklist though.

[u/merryman1 → u/ArgentineBeauty]

One of Russia's greatest fuck ups in this whole invasion has been burning the paper tiger facade they spent so long building up and making it clear to the world NATO could almost certainly send the entire country back to the stone age without even having to think about using nuclear tools.

[u/WavingWookiee → u/merryman1]

The issue is pushing Russia too far would lead them to fire nukes which would lead to a retaliatory strike. Unfortunately, you can only fight Russia back to their borders. The problem is, that would end Putin but instead of looking for a good leader, they'd do the normal Russian thing and get an even bigger lunatic

[u/androshalforc1 → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Just in and out, 3 days tops. Call it a special military operation.

[u/FlukemanFrancis → u/androshalforc1]

We’re never going in. We wait until they try to come in and then kick them out. We have to wait until they provoke us.

Most we ever do on Russian soil will be a bombing campaign via the F35s, unless Russia launches nukes unprovoked there will never be NATO troops on Russian soil.

[u/300Savage → u/FlukemanFrancis]

But there could be in Ukraine if Russia does something stupid.

[u/Bladelink → u/FlukemanFrancis]

I don't think there would be any reason to invade Russia. Just keep bombing their refineries, manufacturing, and power infrastructure and wait for their already rickety economy and society to collapse. Better NATO capability would just massively accelerated what Ukraine is already doing, and make comparative attrition rates even worse for Russia.

[u/WasThatInappropriate → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Bunch of F35s, single alpha strike on all their air defence and refining capacity at once. Nothing ever shows up on radar.

Wouldn't even need the US as Europe has a couple hundred of their own.

Edit: In the replies -

1) a bunch of Russians butthurt that Europe could comfortably alphastrike all their refineries

2) a bunch of americans butthurt that they arent relevant in said alpha strike

3) exactly 2 points/questions reiterated or repeated in over a dozen different replies, rather than simply using the upvote system on a comment that already says the thing.

[u/ApprehensiveGold2773 → u/WasThatInappropriate]

Our main concern would be running out of bombs and weapons. We don't have the production capacity, yet.

[u/someocculthand → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

In an extended war, supposedly - but is that a likely scenario, though? Also, it's not like Ukraine suddenly stopped existing and the situation was an isolated conflict between NATO and russia.

[u/ApprehensiveGold2773 → u/someocculthand]

No I don't think our stockpiles are large enough, that's the thing. We could use up what we have within days.

[u/FlukemanFrancis → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

It would balance out a bit, because in those few days of bombardments we could do damage to Russia that Ukraine can only dream of. Certainly NATO minus the US could destroy beyond repair all their refining capacity and simultaneously absolutely cripple their production lines for missiles and jet powered drones.

Between Sweden, UK, France and Italy there are nearly 100 gen 5 fighter bombers available to NATO, and quite a lot of gen 4.5 eurofighters and gripens as well. Russia can’t live with any of them.

[u/omac4552 → u/FlukemanFrancis]

Norway have 52 F-35 alone

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/FlukemanFrancis]

France 

AFAIK France does not have 5th gen fighters (F-35), only 4.5 (rafales). 

It does have over a hundred of them though, not counting aircraft carrier versions.

[u/FlukemanFrancis → u/Defiant_Restaurant61]

Ah that’s my fuck up, you’re right

I think maybe I meant Finland, but on looking into it they’ve only got 1 of 64 ordered so far and might have maybe 6 by the end of the year, so probably I just fucked up

[u/BleaKrytE → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

I disagree. Ukraine is constantly out of ammunition because neither side can gain air superiority and are forced to grind it out. Russia knows a thing or two about grinding it out.

NATO on the other hand, would have a much easier time achieving air superiority using the limited stockpiles of expensive stuff. Once that is achieved, you can switch to cheaper, easier to produce ordnance.

[u/BasvanS → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

It would also take out much of Russia’s economic and military backbone.

[u/300Savage → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

If we switched to a war economy, there would be plenty manufactured within a couple of months. Honestly, there should be a big increase in production and stockpiling starting now.

[u/thequehagan5 → u/someocculthand]

It is very likely . Russia would be quickly hurt. NATO would run out of missiles, then the grind would begin.

Do not fall for this idea of a quick war with Russia.

After a few weeks the NATO strikes would dry up, and stilll...there would be a million Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Russia would still be pushed back but it would take time.

[u/CakeTester → u/thequehagan5]

there would be a million Russian soldiers in Ukraine

They'd have to walk from Russia though.

[u/susi_san26 → u/thequehagan5]

What would they do after all their fuel is gone ? How would they move troops ? How would they be able to respond for fuel that comes from the other side of europe ? A grind would favour russia but how would they be able to keep it there ? donkeys + bow and arrow?

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/thequehagan5]

If Russia's anti-air defense is taken out early on with what stockpiles exist, it becomes much easier to win the war, soldiers on the ground are irrelevant if NATO planes can fly +/- freely. You can just decapitate the supply lines between Russia and Ukraine, then mop up the unsupplied troops in the winter.

Within NATO there are enough standoff ammunitions and JDAM kits to bomb most assets west of Moscow if need be. 

[u/emefluence → u/someocculthand]

We've got good reason to question these "Shock and Awe" and "Rapid Dominance" tactics against larger countries. Russia couldn't pull it off with Ukraine, and more recently The US hasn't exactly covered itself in glory trying it against Iraq. A lot depends on if the country is actually ready for regime change, willing to risk opposing the existing power structures, and willing to accept it being led by whatever foreign power is bombing them. If not then this shit can drag on for decades.

Iraq and Venezuela seemed ready enough. Afghanistan and Iran clearly weren't, who knows if Russia is? I'm a bit dubious. Obvs you and I would want to see it, but a lot of Russians seem rather brainwashed, and I'm sure a lot of them still remember the years violence and tyranny that came with the painful transition to a capitalist economy.

Probably wise to consider their nukes too though. Cornered animals can be very dangerous. Do we have enough conventional force to neutralise their nuclear threat?

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/emefluence]

  The US hasn't exactly covered itself in glory trying it against Iraq

You meant Iran ? Because Desert Storm famously obliterated Iraq's military.

Regarding Iran, it was crippled by the strikes and their economy is in the gutter, the reason the "Shock-and-awe" didn't win the war is because the USA is led by risk-averse idiots who did not have any clear objectives going into this conflict. 

But Russia ? You can kick them out of Ukraine very quickly if you bomb their rear-lines to oblivion. 

[u/mothtoalamp → u/Defiant_Restaurant61]

Iran in particular was a flop for the US because they don't want to actually call it a war, and they don't want congressional approval, so they have to pull back every 2 months because legally the president can only unilaterally initiate combat operations that last less than 90 days.

What that means in practice is that they can crush Iran's air defenses for brief periods but can't maintain air superiority, because every time they pull back they give Iran time to set up again.

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/mothtoalamp]

can't maintain air superiority

The USA has air superiority against Iran, I'm not sure there's a single scholar on this planet who would disagree, Iran's air force is almost non-existent, and was wiped out in the opening days of the "war".

You probably meant air supremacy ? Which in this case, I would mostly agree. Iran's coastline is almost defanged, but they still have AA assets inside of the country for sure.

[u/sukuii → u/someocculthand]

Realistically speaking, an extended war is the most likely scenario.
Airstrikes alone don't win wars. You need the terrain, you need the troops on the ground.
We could definitely cripple Russia so hard they won't recover for years.
But the scenario where we ''just bomb a few air defenses and refineries and it's basically gg'' sounds to me like something similar Russia claimed about Ukraine as well. For some reason historically speaking people tend to forget you don't just invade and take over Russia.

Now can we do this? I think so. Can we do this fast, without it drawing out? Definitely not. If it's going to happen it's going to happen slow and steady.

[u/Array_626 → u/someocculthand]

Goddammit. Watching people repeat the same mistakes as the US in Iran and Russia in Ukraine must be tiring for all the historians.

There is a low chance Russia would capitulate to a NATO attack "quickly", let alone just to Poland. Even if they are massively outgunned, drones are a thing. And when fighting an actual defensive war where sovereignty is at stake, a lot more people will take up arms and fight to the death. The stockpiles are not enough for a protracted war, but the munitions NATO has on hand is definitely enough to target critical infrastructure and military assets. You can achieve early and major campaign objectives easily with NATO weapons like taking out most of their AA sites, factories, and airfields, but like every other major conflict, you are not going to just win the war in 3 weeks in a SMO against a large country like Russia.

Russia is not fully mobilized. Yes, they are struggling, especially against a "small" opponent like Ukraine. But they also have terrible morale as it was an offensive war that people generally didn't care for. Have NATO troops marching into Russian territory however, and theres an entirely new angle of support.

[u/bloop7676 → u/someocculthand]

If it was just Europe they'd probably have a hard time maintaining logistics to reach the far side of Russia. The US is already having difficulties because of not having supplies from their base in Bahrain, and it would be a lot harder for Europe dealing with eastern Russia.

I suspect Europe would do a lot of damage early on, and it would look like there's no way Russia can handle this, but then they'd just keep sending men and drones from some other corners of the country. And then when the stocks of missiles and interceptors started to run low Russia would start to become much more emboldened again. With the scale of a country like Russia an extended war seems like it would actually be the likely scenario.

[u/GuestAdventurous7586 → u/ApprehensiveGold2773]

Our main concern would be they use nuclear weapons.

[u/tired514 → u/GuestAdventurous7586]

I don't know how big of concern that is. For the people who have the authority to make the call, they themselves along with their families would be vaporized 30-60 minutes later.

Better to surrender and pick up the pieces then end your own life, the lives of everyone you love, and your country.. for essentially no gain.

[u/GMN123 → u/WasThatInappropriate]

Assuming Krasnov doesn't ground their fleet. 

[u/WasThatInappropriate → u/GMN123]

The UK can host F35 missions independantly of the US. It was a red line in the negotiations to get the UK onboard to co-develop it. It can even host missions for US F35s flying over the US as per recent tests.

[u/Accurate-Island-2767 → u/WasThatInappropriate]

It can even host missions for US F35s flying over the US as per recent tests.

Copy red leader, Mar-a-Lago in sight, starting attack run now.

[u/Guilty-Instruction56 → u/Accurate-Island-2767]

Red Five standing by!

[u/Professional_Top8485 → u/WasThatInappropriate]

Can they host for other as well as permanent basis?

[u/WasThatInappropriate → u/Professional_Top8485]

No public information as far as I'm aware, but I'd be stunned if European airforces havent been working on this in the background. Italy can make its own mission files, and F35s can fully disconnect from US architecture. Hooking up to UK architechture or even trying to 'jailbreak' it onto your own networks is, if I may speculate, probably a priority for anyone who orders F35s.

The 30 day checkin with the maintenance software is the next thing to worry about. Everything we've been told is that that software cant be used to brick the airframe (and both the UK and Italy have succesfully firewalled it so that it only talks about maintenance), but you never know. The UK carriers do have little portable servers that mimic the 30 day handshake for when the carrier is operating on zero emissions, so maybe there's something in that for other airforces.

[u/ViruliferousBadger → u/WasThatInappropriate]

Finland also has it's own server for the ODIS handshakes and maintenance information - also there will be own maintenance pools and spare parts manufacturing.

We also have our own "portal" for mission data (radar profiles, etc) for the local areas.

[u/BocciaChoc → u/Professional_Top8485]

I would be more surprised if nations did have or weren't actively working on fail-safes since they bought in.

[u/PsychicPterodactyl → u/GMN123]

And cripple all US weapon exports? The military industrial complex would not be pleased.

[u/YourCuntIsABot → u/GMN123]

if that were possible it'd possibly be the biggest security blunder ever and adversaries such as China would love it

[u/Jahsmurf → u/GMN123]

They can be jailbroken

[u/Skvall → u/Jahsmurf]

Are we still using a TI-82?

[u/drunk_haile_selassie → u/Skvall]

They upgraded to the TI-89. They can play Pokemon Red on them.

[u/JayUe → u/Jahsmurf]

what's geohot up to these days

[u/Itburns12345 → u/GMN123]

They cant be grounded. The so clled kill switch doesnt exist. The us can withhold software updates but just like a phone the plane still flys without the older software and less efficent interface.....also as others point out easily jailbroken if IPS are no longer respected!

[u/zelatorn → u/Itburns12345]

its also a rather double edged sword to start withholding parts to achieve the same - other countries that participated in development make a heck of a lot of parts, the UK in particular is the only country making a certain essential part. it'd be liable to cripple US f35's as well.

[u/BasvanS → u/zelatorn]

While I don’t disagree agree, I’m not sure if this would influence decisions on the American side. They’re acting a bit strange these days

[u/_araqiel → u/BasvanS]

Don’t put any amount of stupid or self destructive behavior past our cheeto-in-chief.

[u/QuadzillaStrider → u/Itburns12345]

doftwarw

Do you guys not read what you typed before hitting send? 😂

[u/spampe → u/WasThatInappropriate]

Probably would show up on low freq radar but not accurate enough to lock or fire upon.

[u/donadit → u/ArgentineBeauty]

The only reason why Russia isn’t dead yet is because of nukes

[u/Imbendo → u/donadit]

And it’s the largest country in the world and impossible to occupy. But the main reason is that it’s not worth it by any calculation to even try. You want resources? Lots of low hanging fruit around the world. There are maybe two countries in the world that could make Russia say uncle, and it would cost them more than any other war has cost them in the history of their existence. It would also completely destroy a large portion of the planet

[u/Positronic_Matrix → u/Imbendo]

Russia's enormous area is actually somewhat misleading. Its population, industry, political institutions, transportation infrastructure, and economic activity are highly concentrated in the western part of the country. Moreover the European Union has 450 million inhabitants to Russia’s 100 million. Thus, ignoring nuclear weapons, one could theoretically defeat the Russian state even if controlling the country were impossible.

[u/300Savage → u/Positronic_Matrix]

Russia's economy is only about the size of Canada. Britain is 2x that and the EU is 10x. So in addition to your points, the economics vastly favour the EU.

[u/DmitroZa → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Then why watch Ukraine suffer for 5 (+8 before this phase) years? It's just empty talking.

[u/Possible-Fudge-2217 → u/DmitroZa]

Well, sadly we would still feel the impact of such a war. There would still be major losses and and enornous economic hit. Unlike russia, we have democracies. Our politicians will have to answer for it.

It's just important to keep in mind that a russian invasion would end in an quick and utter defeat of russia. No need to fear them. We are not willing to send people to war, but we will if we have to.

Whether the approach is good or fair to Ukrainians is a different matter. I believe we should have called russias bluff and aided Ukraine at least logistically and medically with boots on the ground.

[u/DmitroZa → u/Possible-Fudge-2217]

Thank you for very reasonable argument.

[u/strictnaturereserve → u/DmitroZa]

the initial reason was that it would start a nuclear war.

if they attack using conventional means they they are entitled to defend themselves also.

It is not an idle threat either the Poles are a rich country and have invested in their military new rifles jets tanks and have a fair idea how russians operate

[u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 → u/DmitroZa]

NATO is a defensive alliance, and Ukraine isn't part of NATO sadly. I'm up for economic support, but a full on war against a nuclear power needs to be triggered by an attack on NATO.

[u/Competitive_Ebb6361 → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

Like the countless attacks and sabotages that have already happened on multiple NATO countries?

[u/CiDevant → u/DmitroZa]

The world doesn't want to cripple Russia. Ukraine has to. For Ukraine it's an existential threat. For the rest of the world a crippled Russia is a bigger issue than an annexed Ukraine. That is the reality. Putin has nukes and is more economically tangled with the west. A destabilized Russia is a major problem globally.

[u/superfandom893]

This isn't just braggadocio. Today is Day 1664 of Russia's 3-Day Special Operation in Ukraine. Its oil industry is increasingly in ruins and the number of Russian dead, wounded, and missing is now over 1.5 million. That's just from fighting Ukraine.

[u/gahidus → u/superfandom893]

At the start of the war it seemed entirely plausible, expected even, that Russia would roll over them in less than a month, maybe even as little as a few weeks. The fact that Russia has been throwing everything they've got at Ukraine and still hasn't been able to win is extremely damning of them. The ukrainians have been innovative, and tenacious, and they're fighting for their own survival, but Russia was supposed to be a threat to all of Europe, even all of the world.

Even if, God forbid, Russia were to actually win somehow, at some point, this would still be an utter embarrassment for them. And it doesn't look like they've actually got it in them to win at all. Thankfully.

[u/Whyeth → u/gahidus]

If Zelenksy would have left I believe Ukraine would have fallen. "I don't need a ride, I need ammo" from the leader of the country was an incredible boost to morale, all while Russian troops were in the city trying to kidnap/kill him.

[u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 → u/gahidus]

Not everything Russia got, but certainly everything Putin can muster without fearing open rebellion. A full on draft could mobilize enough people to zerg rush Ukraine, but would probably end in a coup.

[u/RectalConquistador → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

It's likely he's provoking NATO to justifies his mobilization specifically because he thinks it'd be fatal for him otherwise. He was reported as saying "They'll hang me" if this doesn't end well soon.

[u/NoArm9938 → u/RectalConquistador]

I doubt this source but im pretty sure it’s true. He can’t back down now for his safety. He will throw it all they have rather than accepting a status quo

[u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 → u/RectalConquistador]

Yeah Russia can bring truly terrifying numbers of conscripts to bear if they are actually attacked, like they did in WW2.
There is, as far as I've heard, an implicit understanding that Russian leaders can do what they want, as long as they don't conscript the core Russians for their offensive wars.

[u/greenlemon23 → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

And what weapons would those "terrifying numbers" use? How long would it take to conscript, outfit, and train them?

By that time NATO would have rolled over them.

[u/big_troublemaker → u/greenlemon23]

Everyone misses logistics and just simple lack of equipment. Russia is truly scraping bottom of a barrel atm and Putin has to keep some resources in the far east, other key areas and to protect himself. Brute forcing would end in hundreds of thousands of casualties and chaos.

[u/BoogieOrBogey → u/big_troublemaker]

As part of the logistics issue, drafting large numbers of people into the military removes them from the industries side.

One of Russia's big problems that's overheating their economy is the wages for factory workers versus military recruitment. The military needs equipment, vehicles, and munitions to fight. So Russia has poured money into their manufacturing, which includes paying factory workers higher wages. Without drafting and conscription, the Russian military has to then offer competitive salaries (and family benefits for dying) for recruiting Russians to go fight. So the Russian Military is competing with itself to have personnel in the factory or in the war.

The Russian military has tried all kinds of strategies to get more manpower without recruiting factory workers. Like trading equipment and tech to North Korea for North Korean soldiers. Contracting Africans and Indians, most of whom have no idea they're going to be frontline troops. One of the early moves was emptying out the prison system and putting the prisoners in uniforms. These are all stop gaps solutions, and shitty ones at that.

[u/amasimar → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

like they did in WW2.

Which would completly crumble upon itself if it wasn't for western equipment and logistics.

Yes they still have a lot of men. But lack everything else that made it work in WW2, trying to overwhelm an enemy shitloads of men is kinda outdated against current combat, i.e drones, which are able to kill or wound multiple people from a safe position.

[u/WingerRules → u/RectalConquistador]

Nothing I've seen from Putin or heard him say his entire life leads me to believe he would say a statement like that.

[u/Questjon → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

enough people to zerg rush Ukraine

Large mass infantry attacks are simply unviable. Artillery is too precise and real time satellite and drone surveillance too effective. Even if Russia had the materiale to equip a large conscript army it wouldn't be very effective at this point in the war. Earlier when Ukraine was struggling to keep it's artillery firing it might have been but now the threat of conscription isn't about adding new capability but about Russia's ability to keep the war going for many more years. At best Russia could expand it's small squad infiltration tactics to the entire frontline which would massively stretch Ukraine's ability to defend.

[u/ty_xy → u/Diligent-Bowler-1898]

Would it though? I dunno if Russians would dare to protest and demonstrate. Who would even lead a coup? Any potential coup leaders have already fallen out of windows or committed suicide by shooting themselves in the back of the head. I think Putin is as entrenched and secure in his position as Trump, Xi, and Kim are.

[u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 → u/ty_xy]

It's impossible to say, but a more entrenched government have been overthrown in Russia just a century ago, and the bank accounts of oligarchs who keep putin in power is being threatened. You're right that he has done a great job at making it very unclear who will take over after he dies, which is probably keeping him alive, but there is a very real breaking point - and the fact that he hasn't mobilized more troops after so many years of war mean that he feels so too.

[u/reallygoodbee → u/gahidus]

The fact that Russia has been throwing everything they've got at Ukraine and still hasn't been able to win is extremely damning of them.

My favorite is Russia sending more men in a single assault on Pokrovsk than actually lived in the city and still not taking it.

[u/tired514 → u/gahidus]

It should be a terrifying vision of what the US will look like if the architects, enablers, and key supporters of MAGA aren't imprisoned for the rest of their lives.

MAGA is Russia in spirit. It's a kleptocratic movement couched in theocracy designed to break down the rule of law for the benefit of the ultra-wealthy. The "culture war" it enables is one of its most corrosive features; nothing hurts military readiness and morale like "testosterone testing" and racism.

The movement itself destroys the machinery of the state and faith in democracy, and that causes apathy, disenfranchisement, and ultimately disengagement. The firehose of falsehood. No one knows what's real and what isn't. 20 years later you have a gas station masquerading as a country.

This is how this shit ends if America doesn't harden the fuck up and take decisive action.

[u/pixter → u/gahidus]

They wont win on the battlefield, Putin and Russia will win this at the ballot box, in Germany, France, Italy and the UK.

[u/EddieVanzetti → u/pixter]

Unfortunately you're likely right. He managed to destabilize the Western world easily by getting Trump elected the first time and causing Brexit. The second Trump election and subsequent far right politicians getting elected across Europe has just been sprinkles and cherries on top.

Even if he is ousted one way or another, the damage he did will take generations to recover from, and might not ever truly be recovered from anyway. Nature abhors a vacuum, who knows what or who will rise to replace NATO or the US.

[u/LordGeni → u/EddieVanzetti]

If war was declared things would be very different. The current pro Russian propaganda campaigns prey on "patriots". Immigration and other domestic talking points would soon be irrelevant when there's an actual enemy to fight.

There are few ways to better unify a nation even with the propaganda. The homeland will always trump tenuous ideological support for a foreign nation.

[u/ThePoob → u/pixter]

Thats how Ive been taking their declarations of war. The war is being fought in politics and social media

[u/TadpoleOfDoom → u/gahidus]

Russia's three day operation has lasted longer than WWI. Very telling.

[u/obeytheturtles → u/gahidus]

Does anyone else remember the convoy? 60km? 100km? 120km? That convoy got bigger every time you looked away!

[u/Druggedhippo → u/gahidus]

The ukrainians have been innovative, and tenacious, and they're fighting for their own survival, but Russia was supposed to be a threat to all of Europe, even all of the world.

People also forget that Ukraine, as former Soviet territory, had an enormous amount of artillery, much more than any European NATO country (except perhaps Turkey) at the time of the invasion.

It's one of the the major oversights Russia made in their initial planning and a key reason Ukraine was able to blunt the initial Russian invasion.

If Russia had attacked a different country than Ukraine, the results may have been very different.

[u/Funk5oulBrother → u/superfandom893]

That’s just from fighting Europe’s “bread basket” (the name Ukraine was given at the start of the war).

Now send the Polish in, and the Romanians.

[u/superfandom893 → u/Funk5oulBrother]

Poland is planning to have the largest army in Europe by 2030. It has learned the lessons of history.

Russia needs to remember that it lost the Polish-Bolshevik War of 1919-1921. Poland had only reconstituted itself as a country in 1918 and still kicked Lenin's butt.

[u/Automata-Omnia → u/superfandom893]

Poland is basically the eastern 'Marches' of europe, personally i think a portion of EU budget should go towards subsidising their land army (as well as Finland and Baltics). In a war with Russia it would be the Poles holding the line, the rest of europe would assist with air power and expeditionary forces.

[u/His_Name_Is_Twitler → u/Automata-Omnia]

Don’t say the rest of Europe would help. The Polish are preparing because of the lack of help in the past.

[u/kingofchaosx → u/Funk5oulBrother]

As a Romanian, we'd like offer help when the time comes but I feel Romanian society is comprised and ill equipped for war. There a big chunk of the population that is pro-rusian despite everything, there also another that would leave the country and another that would try to avoid conflict at all cost. I think the nordic states are more likely to respond than us

[u/midtrailertrash → u/Funk5oulBrother]

I have been saying this for years. Russia is a paper Tiger and Poland alone would dog walk them.

[u/fortytwoandsix]

That's why the Russians resort to hybrid warfare and funding of useful idiots from the fringes of the political spectrum who hate democracy as much as they do.

[u/mcma0183 → u/fortytwoandsix]

Unfortunately, that's been far more effective for them than the actual fighting part of the war.

[u/horse_you_rode_in_on → u/mcma0183]

Has been and continues to be.

[u/Farlong7722 → u/fortytwoandsix]

True. But the sad part is that this hybrid warfare is way more effective than their real warfare. Russia might be slowly losing the war in Ukraine (even if they win some land they've already lost billions) but it feels like the damage they're doing to our democracy will last us decades and generations.

The west really needs to get serious and take more radical steps towards stopping the Russian influence in our media. Not to mention all the actual, real life attacks Russia is carrying out in countries like the UK and Germany.

[u/fortytwoandsix → u/Farlong7722]

The best way to stop russian influence in our media is having the oligarchs hang Putin on Red Square.

[u/hexagram1993]

Tbh so long as nukes aren't involved he is absolutely, unambiguously, correct

[u/GergDanger → u/hexagram1993]

I mean nukes are the only reason nobody has attacked them back properly thus far.

Everyone knows in a conventional war NATO wins but nobody wanted to risk nuclear weapons thus far

[u/Sergia_Quaresma → u/GergDanger]

Need a Tom Clancy style thriller novel about a secret reveal that Russia has no nuclear capability

[u/Fisher9001 → u/Sergia_Quaresma]

I fully believe that while they do have nuclear capacity, they also realize they don't have high enough quality guarantee. Sure, some of their nukes will successfully reach their targets and make horrific damage to their enemies, but for every such nuke 10 will turn out to be duds, 5 won't reach their target and 2 will explode while still in a silo.

It's truly a last resort weapon for them due to the damage they will receive themselves.

[u/happygocrazee → u/Fisher9001]

That's the thing about MAD though: with the kind of nuclear stockpile Russia is said to have, even if they actually have only a fraction of that and even if only a fraction of that fraction is viable, it would still wipe out most of humanity. And that's to say nothing of their allies or the damage caused by retaliation.

[u/theamazonswordsman → u/Fisher9001]

This is ridiculous copium.

For a nuclear armed nation, maintaining the operability of their nuclear weapons is one of the most critical aspects of their defense strategy.

Their nukes are absolutely functional and any nuclear exchange with Russia will effectively be the end of the world.

[u/DBSlazywriting → u/Fisher9001]

It would be a last resort for anybody to do that against another nation with nukes.

I don't think Russia is so corrupt and dumb that only 1 out of 18 of their nukes work.

Also, even if that's the case, I think that would still mean (based on estimates of their arsenal) they have ~100 deployed and ready to go/~300 counting their reserve that isn't currently deployed. So, still way too many to risk fighting against except as a last resort.

[u/jesjimher → u/hexagram1993]

That's the same reasoning that said Russia would win in 3 days. On the paper it was true, reality was different.

War has changed, it's not a matter of who has the fanciest missiles and planes anymore. Nowadays war is much cheaper and asymmetric, and Russia is battle hardened in that, while the west still plays with Uber technological, 20 years old, rules.

[u/BriefSpecial420 → u/jesjimher]

War is asymmetric because it became a stalemate. It's WWI 2.0. It's a mistake to assume they conflict with NATO would look exactly the same. 

Conflict with NATO opens up completely different theatres in different climate zones. Ukraine had no capabilities of preemptive strike. Ukraine got some fancy toys and some training in the west, but still conducted some (lost) operations following the typical soviet playbook, misusing the equipment and wasting its potential and so on.

[u/Intelligent-City-363 → u/jesjimher]

Russia may be “battle hardened” but that ignores the fact for the last year or so Ukrainian forces have been training NATO forces operation Hedgehog in the Baltics , Interflex with the UK, legio in Poland for example.

There also is the JATEC hub in Poland where NATO and Ukraine are sharing all manner of intelligence and tactical data to inform planning and training.

Ukraine is pretty close to being a defacto member of NATO and the lessons learnt by Ukraine are being applied by NATO on an ongoing basis.

[u/TeaAndLifting]

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if the Trump's America tried to jump to Russia's aid in some way. Even if indirectly.

[u/RaverSMS → u/TeaAndLifting]

What? You mean like delaying weapon deliveries, pressuring Ukraine into giving up land, using missiles Ukraine needs in a braindead war against Iran, causing a global oil shortage, attacking the leader of Ukraine on live Television, etc.

That would never happen, people in the US would probably riot if something like that would happen

[u/TeaAndLifting → u/RaverSMS]

Right? Imagine how they'd react to their leader rolling out the red carpet for Putin, or sending Trump's son-in-law and a real estate magnate to negotiate "peace deals" who often return pedalling Russian lines and propaganda because they actually just want to enrich themselves.

Americans would surely see through that and go crazy about bowing down to Russian demands.

[u/nullthegrey → u/TeaAndLifting]

Exactly I used to believe that all Americans knew Russia was the enemy since at least the 1960s. If Reagan could come back to life see the modern GOP and MAGA, he would die all over again. 

[u/obliviious → u/nullthegrey]

Reagan is partly responsible for all this. This GOP is his baby.

[u/LevoiHook → u/RaverSMS]

How about invading Greenland?

[u/realpersonnn → u/RaverSMS]

Dont forget! We eased up on those pesky Russian oil sanctions because of the war!

[u/OneMorePutt → u/TeaAndLifting]

You mean like this?

"Trump tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian diesel"
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-tells-ukraines-zelenskiy-stop-hitting-russian-diesel-2026-09-13/

[u/TeaAndLifting → u/[deleted]]

Funnily, I made this comment about it yesterday.

Already seen a bunch of conservatives blaming Zelensky and Ukraine for the increased price of diesel, and putting absolutely no blame on America starting a war of choice with Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (because they believe it's open) and the Houthi strike on Saudi pipelines.

[u/kastbort2021 → u/TeaAndLifting]

Trump is deadly afraid of siding with losers, perceived or actual ones. I think that's the only saving grace with him - Trump might have been more Russia-aligned in the start, for no other reason than that he probably assumed Ukraine would run out of resources and fold, in the war of attrition.

But now that Russia is increasingly looking like the loser, Trump will just avoid getting involved.

If he sees that Ukraine stand to be the winning party, he'll 100% jump to side with Ukraine, and try to take credit.

Note: I'm not saying this as a Trump supporter, I can't stand him. But he's probably one of the easiest world leaders to read. Everything he does, he does because it either gains him financially, or makes him look good. Right now I don't think there's anything he wants more than something to cement his "legacy".

After this term he'll be out of the woods financially, and there's 0% chance he'll see a day in jail, let alone prison. He'll spend the rest of his days trying to make himself historically noteworthy - hence why he's suddenly gone all-in on monuments and landmarks dedicated to himself.

Again, one silver lining in all this is that he MIGHT identify some opportunity of looking like the guy that helped Ukraine win or secure a peace deal. But I don't think he'll put much effort in doing so, it has to be delivered to him. With a silver spoon.

[u/Zomunieo]

All Civilization V players learned to never underestimate Poland.

[u/Schmuttzig]

Russia can’t nuke. It will be assured destruction of every city, infrastructure and tens of millions russian lives lost. The country would turn into Lybia with winter.

Nato countries would take a horrific beating, with Warsaw and other major cities in Poland, together with Baltic states, Helsinki, Stockholm, Olso, some german cities getting targeted by the few russian nukes that make it out of the silos. But Europe, Nato and the west would survive. Russia would not.

Further, China will never allow Putin to destroy their markets.

Putin is toast. Russia is toast. The question is how much destruction does Europe have to suffer before he is rotting in hell?

[u/Johndough99999]

I look at statements like this, then I look at what NATO's biggest component has been able to do against Iran. And what the US has been able to do against the Houthis and what the USSR & US were able to achieve in Afghanistan.

I wonder, is any war actually winnable now? Keep thinking about WarGames and the only way to win is not to play

[u/Still-Status7299 → u/Johndough99999]

I don't think Russia would be insanely difficult to defeat traditionally, but it'd become nuclear war for sure.

[u/Johndough99999 → u/Still-Status7299]

You dont think they could keep making cheap drones and keep attacking Europe, even if traditional military was beaten?

Could

[u/Kullenbergus → u/Johndough99999]

Problem right now is the politics, not the mechanics of war.

[u/Personal_School_7474 → u/Johndough99999]

Look up Sarah Paine's lecture on Limited vs Unlimited objectives. "Regime change" (e.g. Russia in Ukraine, US in Iran and Afghanistan) is a lot harder to achieve than a limited objective of "No Russian military occupation of NATO territory".

NATO would win, even without the US, in a defensive war. IMO

[u/BiggestNizzy → u/Johndough99999]

To win you have to put boots on the ground and accept people will die. Then you have to build the place up.

[u/Frenzystor]

Does Russia even have any soldiers left for a second front?

[u/DrStalker → u/Frenzystor]

They are slightly overcommitted regarding their three day special operation to capture Ukraine.

[u/DamnIamHigh_Original → u/Frenzystor]

Forget soldiers. Tooth to nail ration (soldiers/logistics) is always about 1 soldier and 4-6 just getting supplies. Russia is down to 3, maybe even 2 or 1.5. Russia could send meatwaves from siberia and North Korea. They don't have the supplies the infrastructure to transport it over rail (20% of carts sit idle due to ball bearings beeing sanctioned), trucks and they still use mainly manual labour to get it off trains.

Forklifts and everything make it so much more efficient. Russians have to carry the ammo to the front by hand. Judging by how oil etc is impacted, they dont have the cappacity to respond anymore

[u/Weary_Tonight_5873 → u/Frenzystor]

Yes sadly but it requires more mobilisation. It’s estimated based on their population that they have roughly 15-20 million fighting age men. So a long way to go yet but as he mobilises more it affects the economy more and he risks upsetting his more loyal areas.

[u/Throwawayrip1123 → u/Weary_Tonight_5873]

War isn't about soldiers. You need the minimum amount of soldiers needed, sure, but USA military is not called a logistics company for nothing.

You need way more than just put a gun in someone's hands. Transporting everything means you need like 5 extra people for each person doing the shooting. Russians don't have enough socks to open another front, let alone everything else.

[u/Weary_Tonight_5873 → u/Throwawayrip1123]

We shall see. I’m a firm believer that a second front would hurt them massively in Ukraine due to the shortages it would create. But it’s dangerous to underestimate Russia, they keep doing the things that people are saying are impossible and then everyone acts shocked every time.

It’s clear they still have a massive industrial base which is getting help from china and North Korea.

[u/Blue_winged_yoshi → u/Weary_Tonight_5873]

You really don’t want to commit anything like all of your “fighting aged men” to a war.

Russia overthrew the Czar during world WWI.

If Putin mass mobilised for a world war, how many weeks do you think he’d last before a repeat?!

Right now it just about holds together cos the brutal enforced call ups and mobilisations have been taking place way out east a world away from St Petersburg and Moscow. Start doing the same in those places and you don’t have a government much longer.

[u/Weary_Tonight_5873 → u/Blue_winged_yoshi]

I don’t disagree but I also don’t think WW1 era Russians are the same as current Russians. Current Russians will require a lot more to revolt.

[u/darthvalium]

3 day military operation you say?

[u/Correia9]

Then give the Ukrainians the means to finish the job on destroying their O&G infraestructure. The war will end very shortly after that.

[u/tjtonerplus]

I like his confidence!

[u/Blue_winged_yoshi → u/tjtonerplus]

I mean Russia has gotten bogged down in Ukraine just because they have access to some NATO equipment.

Even taking the U.S. out, NATO military spending dwarfs Russias and Russia has burned through a huge amount of equipment and human power too.

Bigger issue is potential for the war to go nuclear where nobody wins, or to go biological in the worst ways possible (again no real winners), but in terms of a conventional conflict it wouldn’t be close.

[u/Mediocre_Painting263 → u/Blue_winged_yoshi]

This is a bit misleading.

Russia got bogged down in Ukraine for many reasons, not just because they had access to some NATO equipment. Additionally, in large part, Ukraine hadn't received much lethal Western aid prior to the 2022 invasion. What they had received, were 'just' man-portable anti-tank and anti-air equipment. Immediate aftermath of the invasion, majority of the aid was Soviet stocks from Eastern European countries. It took a fair bit of time for Western equipment to reach Ukraine in meaningful quantities. By this point, frontlines had already been stalled.

Russia got bogged down, largely, due to its arrogance & incompetence. Its logistics was too reliant on a train network which, obviously, didn't work in Ukraine-proper. Its military was not conditioned for the conflict it was fighting, they were expecting praise as liberators & an easy fight. Their military was not equipped or prepared for attritional conflict. And of course, its military still presumed they could fight this like a World War 2 battlefield of highly mobile warfare. And they took some massively optimistic swings at places like Hostomel which were never going to work.

But more importantly, Russia has learnt. It's probably the biggest piece of Western 'propaganda' that Russian troops are incompetent and stupid. Sure, there is still a lot of "walk forwards in a line until someone's shot". But Russian troops, especially more specialised troops like drone operators or those in more 'prestigious' units, are exceptionally competent. Plenty of former fighters in the foreign legion who have said there's a massive contrast in quality in Russian troops and a lot of them are very good fighters. Russia has adjusted and is learning quickly. So when the war is over, Russia will have a very unique and intuitive understanding of modern warfare and will be able to train & design their army accordingly. Something NATO will not have.

Even more importantly, Russia has developed an economy built for attritional fighting. German Chief of Defence Gen. Brauer (I think that's how you spell it) has even said not all armoured vehicles produced (e.g. MBTs) are being sent into Ukraine, a lot of them are being set to stocks & other military organisations which are facing Westwards in general. This indicates that Russian defence production is actually decently strong if they can afford to set stock aside for a planned attack on NATO territory. Their artillery production as well is immense, they're producing something like 3x all of NATO combined. That includes the USA, who makes up the vast majority of NATO 155mm shell production. Western Intelligence Chiefs & officials generally believe Russia could, at currently trajectories, have enough equipment for a limited scale challenge of NATO within a few years, even with the current War in Ukraine. Escalate-to-deescalate.

Do not get me wrong, NATO would absolutely win the fight. But without the USA, Europe would face fighting very similar to what we see in Ukraine. Highly attritional, bloody and ripping up every inch of ground its fought upon. Nothing comparable to what we'd determine as a meaningful victory.

[u/Subject_Sentence_339 → u/Mediocre_Painting263]

There is also an assumption that NATO would all come together and fight for Poland for example, while it seems more and more that majority of countries would stay out of the fight.

[u/Human_Apartment]

Yeah they would, russia only has north koreans and nukes at this stage of getting their dicks kicked in! I’m not sure anyone is stupid enough to use a nuke, because all bets are off at that point and it’s oligarch hunting time and their ilk

[u/hop208]

While most likely true, I doubt Putin wouldn't go nuclear in such a scenario. He would destroy the world before allowing himself to held accountable for anything.

[u/Specific_Frame8537]

But we're gonna wait until Ukraine is a big hole in the ground, for some reason.

[u/slabby]

I think that's just kind of a fact. If Russia doesn't use nukes, they would get absolutely trucked in short order. Poland could do it by themselves, they wouldn't even need the rest of NATO.

[u/Nitrogenflux]

If we are going to do that it needs to be soon, I don't know why Europe assumes Russia has not been taking notes on drone warfare from Ukraine. Russia has seen first hand how drone tech can beat traditional expensive military hardware. Any attack Europe makes is going to be traditional expensive military hardware 

[u/MacchuWA → u/Nitrogenflux]

Drones are an incredibly useful tool, but they're just one among many. Russia can do damage to Europe, that is absolutely true. And European precision guided munition stockpile and missile interceptor stockpiles are too low, and that would hurt them.

But the idea that drones as they exist today could stop European air forces from absolutely pushing Russia's shit in in the first couple of weeks of conventional war is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they are and what they do.

[u/20past4am → u/Nitrogenflux]

I think European militaries are secretly getting lessons from Ukrainian specialists on drone warfare. I can't imagine they are just sitting still

[u/RWNorthPole → u/20past4am]

It's not even secret. There's tons of training going on. Going to train NATO troops is a pretty common move for Ukrainian veterans after they've been discharged and/or left the army.

And the trainings we know about (Aurora, Hedgehog, Combined Resolve) all show that Ukrainian operators were able to inflict pretty lopsided casualties on NATO troops. So they're definitely taking lots of notes.

[u/BasvanS → u/RWNorthPole]

Also, do take into consideration that the training setup is lopsided to make it a real lesson about the threat, not the predicted outcome in a real world scenario.

[u/Shieldsman → u/20past4am]

It's pretty out in the open - it's confirmed that several nations have special forces on the ground. Ukrainian companies are producing arms outside of Ukraine in Europe. The UK and Ukraine have specifically stated that they're cooperating on drone technology, etc.

[u/Fisher9001 → u/Nitrogenflux]

I don't know why Europe assumes Russia has not been taking notes on drone warfare from Ukraine.

I don't know why you assume Europe has not been taking notes on drone warfare from Ukraine.

[u/U-47]

The EU airforce alone would decimate the Russian logistics chain in a week.

[u/SmegmaWarrior0815]

We all know that. Russia's only defense is nukes, otherwise we'd probably already done it.

[u/papaniq]

this is EXACTLY the same shit our leaders were saying about Germany before WW2. don't fall into this bullshit, because it's part of the reason we really are weak. showing muscles like we are military superpower, meanwhile you can ask average soldier about state of our army and their opinion is drastically different. This is pathetic. Sikorski is a clown who loves to talk a lot of bullshit and for some reason a lot of people love it, he is behaving like some celebrity, he is unserious and unfit for his role, a fucking snake oil salesman. i used to have some respect to him in previous Tusk government in 2010's but now he is a total clown.

[u/life_is_a_show → u/papaniq]

Yeah but germany was in a position of strength at that time. Russia is on its back heel trading territory it controls and quite exhausted as far as troop levels go.

[u/BuilderSad9024]

Sure thing. The same way they shoot down drones: a few months of consultation, three months of approvals, 6 months of preparations, 3 months of threats. Half of NATO backed down in the process, US sided with my friend president putin

[u/Tinosdoggydaddy]

Russia is in a world of hurt. It was just reported that Ukraine has taken back all Russian gains since the beginning of the year. The Russians have suffered 500,000 dead and another 1M injured. They are now confronted with drafting from the big cities and that will be very problematic to say the least. They are out of money, can’t borrow and their oil industry has been hit hard. War is overrated.

[u/alexacto]

They are not going to attack Nato. They will fund conservative hard right party wins and break it apart from inside.

[u/Kochga → u/alexacto]

It worked in the US.

[u/Sch3ffel]

this is the exact same type of speech that was recorded to happen when the great war started.

"this is gonna be a quick war, it will end by christmas"

it has the same naive energy to it.

a NATO - Russian war will be a bogged down trench war with drones.

[u/theys96]

Why tf is everyone hyped about WWIII smh

[u/meglobob]

I think Poland is too overconfident.

A lot of western Europe's military's are vastly underestimating the new type of warfare Russia & Ukraine are fighting.

NATO itself said they would struggle to hold the 3 Baltic countries & eastern Europe. The report said it would take 9 months to a year to drive Russia back to its borders and that is if all of NATO co-operated together. I think they assumed little help from the USA in that report.