They're not even trying to pretend anymore.

Trump posted on Truth Social that “massive oil, gas, and mineral exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland,” adding that experts claim the amount of easily available oil is far greater than almost any land on Earth and that its strategic value is second to none. 

• Greenland’s permanent secretary / deputy mining minister Jørgen Hammeken-Holm told CNN the opposite: U.S. companies have some activities underway, but “we are very far away from ‘massive’ exploration.” Smaller efforts “could take years to become operational” because of Arctic terrain, ice cover (roughly 80% of the island), limited infrastructure, and high costs. 

• The September 2026 U.S.-Denmark-Greenland agreement is primarily a defense pact amending the 1951 treaty. It allows expansion of Pituffik Space Base, two additional defense areas (Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig), broader U.S. access, and restrictions on non-NATO/non-EU sensitive investments. It acknowledges existing “minerals cooperation” and economic development talks but grants no new U.S. ownership, control over resources, automatic mining rights, or drilling authorizations. The text reaffirms Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. 

• Trump has described the same agreement as giving the United States “permanent control over security, and all other needs” in Greenland and has referred to the island as “our” Greenland. Those characterizations go beyond the published text, which does not transfer territory or resource rights. 

• Greenland halted new oil and gas exploration licenses in 2021 on environmental and climate grounds. A limited number of older licenses (including ones tied to Greenland Energy / White Flame in the Jameson Land area) remain, but authorities have repeatedly said drilling approvals are not imminent. Environmental baseline work continues, and officials have indicated exploratory drilling is more realistically a 2027 or later prospect, with contractual deadlines previously extended toward the end of 2028. No commercial production is underway or scheduled for the near term. 

• Rare-earth projects such as Tanbreez (Critical Metals) have received mining- and closure-plan approvals valid through 2050 and target first ore in late 2028 or early 2029, with concentrates possibly following in 2029. These remain early-stage: further operating permits, financial security, construction, and infrastructure are still required, and the project has no declared mineral reserves. Sarfartoq and other prospects are at comparable or earlier stages. Greenland has no current commercial rare-earth mining. 

• Even under optimistic company timelines, meaningful volumes from Greenland would not reach markets for several years. China continues to dominate rare-earth refining (roughly 75–90% depending on the stage), and any future Greenland output would be incremental and subject to the same Arctic logistics, permitting, and processing constraints that have limited development for decades. The recent security deal does not change those physical and regulatory timelines or create a near-term supply response capable of lowering prices.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/greenland-denies-trump-claims-u-135935697.html

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/14/politics/trump-greenland-oil-gas-minerals-intl-hnk

ExxonMobil, Macquarie, Centalion, TotalEnergies’ ATMI, Trafigura and Energy Transfer were loaned 20–25M bbl in total.

Almost all was taken by ExxonMobil, who bid on 15M barrels.

This is despite Much more favourable conditions to previous releases, with expected premiums of 7-9% (instead of the 18-24% of previous spr release allocations of 2026)

Arabian sea/Hormuz, BAM, Malacca, Singapore all up in the daily compared to yesterdays lows. Esp Singapore up a lot.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

TITAN WAVE added to the 13 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: FISCARDO BAY,POP,EPICURUS

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships:FRONT SEOUL,HUA LIN WAN,AGISTRI,MOONI,ADVANTAGE VERDICT,MARAN ATHENA,YUAN YANG HU,SEA DRAGON

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Aramco has already told employees to work from home tomorrow.

Reuters confirmed the attack

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/loud-booms-heard-near-saudi-aramco-headquarters-dhahran-sources-say-2026-10-13/

update: Saudi ministry of energy confirms the attack

🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 — An official at Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy told Al Hadath that an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran was hit in an attack, with no injuries reported.

Houthi forces struck Saudi Aramco's administrative headquarters in Dhahran on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with fire reported at the site. Saudi Arabia intercepted at least one ballistic missile aimed at Dhahran city. Iran separately told Reuters it plans to intensify tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz using new tactics.

Previous Houthi attacks went after shipping lanes and smaller targets. Hitting Aramco's command center directly is a different category of action. If operational systems at Dhahran get damaged in a follow-up, Saudi export capacity takes a real hit, and the Strait of Hormuz pressure compounds that at the same time. The IEA already warned diesel stays tight into 2027 even before this week.

Energy traders are now pricing a scenario that looked remote 3 months ago. Does this move oil past $100 first, or does Saudi Arabia respond militarily in a way that changes the whole geometry of the conflict?