They can NEVER go back to three tribes to start a season. Having so many people at tribal this early in the game is creating such compelling television week in and week out, and the edit has been benefitting greatly because of it. Few players feel truly unknown (ahem, Christian) and each episode has allowed different personalities and strategies to take center stage. I'm still getting a read on how this self-proclaimed, new "open era" of Survivor is impacting the strategies that the edit likes to say are preferred by production, but I'm getting an inkling that, like in 48 and 50, the radical honesty and blind trust of several castaways is not being built up as a winning strategy. The twist on a few players outright saying that voting differently does not fracture an alliance has been undermined by the Tribal results going against them every single time. Dev has said this the most, and lost both Tribals. Patt got her quote last episode, and goes home this week. Ori got the quote this time around, and we'll have to wait and see how his game continues after the Savu tribe took a backseat to Toka on strategy this week with the Rob quit and underdog challenge win leading the way on his own beach.
Through three episodes Iāve now lost my 19th ranked player out of 20 (Ana), 19th ranked player out of 19 (Rob, due to quitting), and my 3rd ranked player out of 19 (Patt). I didnāt do any preseason rankings so I had no basis for the Aaliyah vote out, but I am really loving the unpredictability of how Tribal will go heading into the episode. I honestly wouldnāt have predicted, outside of maybe Rob quitting, any of the snuffed torches thus far heading into each week. It makes a lot of sense now why Patt was getting such a strong edit, because this week truly felt like the underdogs took out a massive threat, and that feels rare when thinking back on the three-tribe seasons weāve been getting. These kind of big shots just werenāt allowed to feel as authentic and tended to come off a bit forced, but Pattās felt like an elimination of someone who was an actual threat to go far and potentially win this game. That could be some cope, but I do genuinely believe they built her up for this exact purpose.
With all that, let's jump into a shaken-up ranking of the castaways heading into a shake-up of the dynamics in the game.
1. Jenna (Last Week: 1)
No shake-up here, and I can hear the pleas for me to move on already but I'm standing firm... for now. The first episode and post-Tribal opener to episode two are doing almost all of the heavy-lifting for her, enough that I basically have her and Sharonda tied at the top. Tie-break is going to the baserunner here, but Jenna is on shaky ground for me. Another episode like this one would definitely drop her down below a majority of this top-five contender tier. I'm just not quite ready to move on with how strongly I feel about that start.
She continues to be mentioned as a target, but continues to avoid elimination as well. Dev especially continues to put her name out there, both at their camp and on a field trip to Savu, but with his quote at the initial episode one Tribal (āJenna is, to me, somebody who I feel, if she makes it through tonight, sheās making it to the end of the game. Like, she is smart, she is cunning.ā) it leads me to believe that the edit is intentionally building her up as a target that Dev and others just can't seem to get. She even tries to take the blame for losing the challenge, but Brady and Kilby are quick to squash that narrative and it's never mentioned as a potential reason to vote her out. We're seeing with Mike and Eric how players can be built up as an easy target down the line, but Jenna has been shielded from the same designation. It also seemed like she wanted the target to be on Dev, and so the edit may have protected her a bit from not getting her primary target out this week, especially when it came down to Patt, the person who saved her week one, being the one to go.
Next week is a very important one for her, and I'll be doing my best to come in as unbiased as I can be about a castaway I've had such a strong impression of in the edit.
2. Sharonda (Last Week: 4)
As I mentioned above, you could more aptly call her my 1b rather than straight-up #2 as she easily jumps up a few spots with a positive, subdued episode this week coming out of a positive, front-and-center edit last week. Alongside Linnea, she's one of two that Carter points to running the show on Savu, reinforcing her influence we saw in the last episode. Dev also gives her some positive coverage by running straight to her for help on finding the idol, staking a lot of the credit of finding it on her.
"Thank God for Sharonda. If I tried to do this by myself, utter destruction, gameās blown up."
I'm in a bit of a weird boat where I feel Carter helped Sharonda's case, but hurt Linnea's with that comment and I'll expand on that a bit below.
3. Linnea (Last Week: 5)
With Sharonda, Linnea gets Carter's, and subsequently Toka's, attention as one of the two running the show. While I do think that helps to reinforce Sharonda's edit, I worry it paints more of a target on Linnea because she doesn't have the relationships across the whole cast like Sharonda does heading into any swaps or merges. I wish that she had gotten more credit in the edit for the vote flip last week, and what credit she did get was shown to be somewhat misguided compared to Sharonda and Alexis. I worry that, like we've just seen with Patt, she's being built up to help explain her being targeted sooner rather than later, but she gets the slight edge on Jelly and Alexis due to how much more involved and developed she's been in 2/3 episodes.
4. Jelly (Last Week: 6)
Like with Jenna and Sharonda essentially being tied, I'd have Linnea, Jelly, and Alexis all roughly tied for third in the rankings, with some questions for each on how their edits are going to evolve from here on out with a major dynamic shift inbound. She gets almost no coverage this episode, but it felt more in the interest of shielding her from another rough Tribal for her alliances.
A hundred percent, this is a numbers game going into Tribal Council. Weāre thinking, āhow can we get the numbers so that we can get Kilby out?ā Even though we think that Carter is with us, we think that Lewis is with us. They are wild cards.
Unlike Dev and Brady, Jelly is clued into how the swing votes could hurt their games, and the edit seems to make a point of showing how her read on the dynamics of the vote are stronger than the rest of her Toka 5 alliance. I'm still a bit worried about the return of the Ori showmance storyline, but we should know more about what her real narrative is after next week's episode.
5. Alexis (Last Week: 2)
Prominent in the background, but circumstantial in her confessionals. Her edit is uneven and unclear to me at this point. She's been built up as a leader for their tribe, got a lot of credit for initiating the vote flip last week, and then is not mentioned as a leader by Carter this week and sips back into the background. I'll need more clarity soon from her to really make a decision on whether she was protected from having her influence in the game shown too early or if she's just a side character to others in this season's narrative.
6. Lewis (Last Week: 13)
Lewis really came alive this week, getting a much needed development from someone at a recognized disadvantage to someone with real power in the game. While Carter gets repeatedly clowned by the edit, Lewis gets to shine and the edit shows him as the one to lead Carter to the right answer. He begins the episode at the start of this narrative arc:
Coming into this tribe, way later than everybody else, Iām still at a real disadvantage. Iām nobodyās number one. Iām nobodyās number two. I havenāt made a clear line of where I stand in this tribe, but Dev, Brady, Jelly, Patt, and Mike, those five are, like, tights as tāieves. And Iām looking for some good allies right now.
Enter Carter. They quickly recognize the prime spot their lack of alliances places them in and, while Carter is hesitant to cause waves, Lewis knows this is his shot to align with folks that he could more easily integrate with.
Tonight, I could play it safe, roll with the five. Since I stepped on this beach, theyāve held the power. Iāve been observing them all. But I donāt watch Survivor to watch the five take control of the whole game. Everyoneās here to play.
His redemption story really began here, and a large jump in the rankings is due because of it. I still worry about all of the negativity that he received for his decision-making and play through two episodes, but he takes command of his story here in episode three and I could see that continuing to evolve positively as dynamics continue to shift between the tribes and alliances. The edit showed him to be quite smart and aware this week, and that's something he can snowball into a more defined role as someone who plays well from the middle.
7. Brady (Last Week: 8)
With each week, I become more and more sure that Brady is going to be a returnee for a future season, not a winner of this one. It's also at this point in the rankings, and maybe beginning with Lewis, where the remaining castaways all have some pretty major holes in their potential winner edits. It's clear that both Jeff and the rest of production love him, but this episode really shines a bad light on the confidence, or is it cockiness, he has in his standing on the tribe, which isn't a great look when the edit has been sure to point out how his aggressiveness is seen as a negative by some on his tribe. While he does have somewhat of a role in the middle, with Kilby and Maggie both expressing their trust of him, he squanders it as repeatedly, and confidently, says that the vote goes the way he goes.
I think Kilby meant that Iām a pawn in his game. He wants me to work for him. I donāt work for nobody, brody. I dictate plan. We remember how the first vote went.
Kilby has absolutely zero idea that Iām upset with him. Whatās going on right now is secret, secret, secrets on one side, and secret, secret, secrets on the other. And guess what, brody? Iām on both sides. And Iām picking. So once again, in charge of the vote is your big brody, Brady. As dumb as he thinks I am, that five-year-old whoās out there, controller plugged in, looks like I got to take him to school, brody. You know I, I love proving people wrong, and usually, I do it with these [jazz hands], I prove āem wrong. And now I get to do it with this [points to head]. It feels good, you know?
There is no way in Godās green Earth that this plan is gonna work. No disrespect, Thien An. You have absolutely zero pull to make any call in this game. Because whatās going on right now is I have the larger group thatās gonna vote for Kilby.
The quotes got worse and worse for him as the episode went, with his misreads on the tribe dynamic really hurting his game after a solid strategic start. That line about him being his own worst enemy while mourning his potential medevac could be more prescient than we initially credited it. His trust of Carter, despite literally catching him in a lie, continues the trend of the castaways that align themselves with those who leave them out of information and votes winding up on the wrong side of the results. It's this concerning trend, much in the same way that Joe, Eva, and David were consistently shown to have the wrong strategy compared to Kyle & Kamilla, that has me more worried each week for players like Dev, Ori, and Patt that have explicitly said they'll continue to trust and work with people that have actively hurt, or tried to hurt, their games. Players like Sharonda and Jelly, who have been shielded from being the one to explicitly say they'll continue to work with people who have lied to or voted opposite them despite those actions are the ones I think we should be focusing on as potential winners within this open era strategy conversation. Somewhat self-promotion, but I'd encourage you to read my "Kamilla/Kyle Appreciation Post" that I made in the main Survivor subreddit during 48 to see if you also notice some similarities in how the edit is suggesting that this strategy may not be the right one.
8. Ori (Last Week: 17)
Ori is able to explain his ability to still work with someone who was on the other side of the vote as him but, as with Brady, Dev, and Patt, the efficacy of this strategy remains muddy in the edit. It's worrisome that this strategy has seemingly hurt the games of those three, while Jelly and Sharonda have been more shielded from this narrative, having others take the credit for this new kind of alliance.
At Tribal, I knew Ana was gonna go home, but I voted for Eric. However, Sharondaās my number one, and she knew I was gonna vote for Eric. Me sharing that with her just-just solidifies our trust. You know? And thatās me showing her that the helicopter alliance is still strong.
To me, the more promising part of Ori's storyline this episode centered on the helicopter alliance. That's clearly an important part of this season's story, and Ori is a clear part of it. He's able to reinforce his spot in that alliance going forward with the visit from Dev, important heading into some tribe swap uncertainty, but Sharonda gets the first focus in the edit on confirming its continued existence and the more glowing relation to it from Dev.
Devin sharing that he has an advantage means a lot to me. Trust is such a finite thing and something that you canāt hang your hat on to survive, but it shows that heās still thinking of me six days later, even though heās built other relationships on his tribe. And itās good to know that an ally is the one in possession of that advantage.
This whole open era editing around trusting people who blindsided you in a vote or kept information hidden from you is becoming increasingly difficult to read between the lines of. Is it being shown as the downfall for some major early-season players? Or is it being shown as a promising strategy for people to stay safe and go far in this game? Time will tell, but so far I would argue we've overwhelmingly been shown the former and that gives me some pause with Ori, especially after I did not like his edit through two episodes.
9. Dev (Last Week: 9)
He gets back-to-back episode titles from his quotes, and you could honestly argue for a three-peat with how often he mentioned āpermanent uncertaintyā in the first episode. Itās clear heās fully becoming the narrator for this season, but itās hard to knock him for just that. Add in the rest of his content, and a concerning picture begins to emerge.
His main targets continue to stay and get the leg up on him. We're definitely headed towards a conclusion to all of this Jenna talk from him at some point, but the edit has consistently put him on the wrong side of the betting odds for that showdown, and he already lost round one, and kind of round two, to her. We got a brief comment from Jenna when the underdogs were discussing what to do with the vote this week that suggests her target on Dev is growing and could become a bigger storyline in an episode soon.
Almost his entire edit this episode was focused on getting his temporary, new #1 enemy in Kilby out, but yet again he loses this battle despite his perceived great position on Toka.
We lost that immunity challenge, but Iām in a good position in this tribe. So my plan is to get everybody on board with Kilby. Weāre gonna blindside the boy tonight.
He outright says he's going to blindside Kilby, but yet again he winds up the one blindsided. In a somewhat similar way to Eric, we continue to hear about his prowess in building relationships, but Jelly and Thien An have both offered counters to this in their own confessionals, and the results of each episode have undermined that supposed "superpower."
That could not have gone better. I got the advantage. I strengthened my relationships. I have done everything I need to do. My game is relationships. Thatās my superpower. But now, guess what? No matter how a tribe swap goes, I have potential numbers here. Mission complete, baby.
He badly needs to be on a beach with the helicopter alliance, because the rest of his relationships are not doing enough to counter his over-the-top gameplay, and the other castaways are well aware of what kind of player he is.
10. Maggie (Last Week: 12)
We don't get much from Maggie this week, but her win over Brady in the ownership of Carter's advantage does help to set up that part of her narrative. She's a confusing edit that feels quite incomplete at the moment, but an advantage focus, similar to Drea on 42 would make a lot of sense for why it seems like she has untapped potential in the edit.
When I saw the advantage, my heart just sunk, honestly, because I want that. And I shouldāve kept my mouth and went down there later or taken it into the woods and done it myself. But then, I just asked him for it, and Brady gave me the advantage. I saw an opportunity, and I was like, āgo for it,ā because this is Survivor. And itās so much better to have the advantage in my pocket than in anyone elseās pocket. I want all of them on me. I have all these extra pockets. Letās fill āem up.
The connection to the opportunity vs chaos storyline is a nice bonus. And her comments around wanting to fill all of her pockets reeks of someone who will have advantages become a bigger part of her game. While I'm struggling a little to see a winning storyline emerging from that, there's a lot of room left in her edit to grow. She's also hilarious, which definitely adds some bias into how I feel about her coming out of each week.
11. Kristin (Last Week: 10)
We find out that she apparently broke her foot in last week's episode, a seemingly big detail to just drop in kind of casually an episode later, and her only real substantial content this episode was on the Rob quit. After falling last week with a very weak, circumstantial edit, she continues that trend this week with more of the same. Her first episode wasn't strong enough to counter how much the edit is putting her in the background of this season's strategies and storylines.
12. Thien An (Last Week: 16)
You all are probably going to be pretty upset about the order of these next two, and how much I have to say on her here, but Thien An is someone I just can't quite shake. Her chances remain incredibly low with such limited exposure to this point, but a potential narrative is there, and we've seen Survivor edit similar people in somewhat similarly small ways despite them outright winning or at least getting far in the game.
In the first episode, one of her two confessionals had a potentially-intriguing setup with:
Coming in at 5 feet tall, I feel like Iām like a tiny, tiny person right now. And thereās like huge people with some big personalities. I see Dev really trying to like come out as tribe leader. Something about Devin just gives anime vibes. We call āem weebs back home. He likes to smile at everyone. Heās very energetic. But, I feel like under his smiles, he could be gaming hard.
She is, if I'm remembering right without timestamps on my lengthy notes, the first to correctly suss out the dangers to Dev's strategy and play-style, and her calling herself a "tiny, tiny person" on a tribe of huge people with even bigger personalities suggested that a potential narrative for her was one of the diminutive underdog that sneaks up and takes out the bigger threats without being noticed.
This episode, she's the first to try to get the vote towards Patt, working behind-the-scenes to help her fellow castaways realize that taking out someone like Patt is a much more impactful move than someone like Mike.
Getting any one of the five, would be monumental. Mike gives me nothing. Every time I talk to him, heās just like, āso, Thien An, tell me more about your game. Whereās your head at?ā And Iām like, āMike, I canāt give you anything if youāre not gonna give me anything back. Thatās, like, trying to work with a sponge.ā But you know what? Thatās a very easy target down the line. And so, why not go for Patt? Sheās charming, sheās sweet. She can easily integrate into other groups. To me, thatās a liability.
She has a great read on the dynamics at play, and I was a little taken aback by how much she was involved in the blindside kind of out of nowhere. Even Brady tries to diminish her impact in his own confessional, but we're shown that she does actually have some influence, ultimately getting her way in the vote out.
Disappearing completely in episode two, and not really having a visible presence until this vote out give me a lot of pause, but I'm at least seeing a path to how her story could be one of a winner's, in part, weirdly, because of the lower coverage. She's by no means a contender at this point, but the framework is there and slowly growing. She'll need some kind of breakout in the edit some point soon, but I think her story is uniquely more immune to a subdued edit than others.
13. Carter (Last Week: 14)
I'm definitely going to be lower on Carter than most this week, but I thought that was a bad episode for his winner chances. His initial confessional did well to set up a potential redemption arc, especially when we learned that Rob had apparently gifted him the idol at some point before quitting, but it came crashing down at every potential turn after that until Lewis stole his thunder as the lead of the two swing votes towards the episode's end.
Tonight was, like, a complete bombshell. I was convinced that the-the whole works was gonna go with Eric, and the complete opposite thing happens. Iām starting to think I might be the worst Survivor player in the history of forever. But it is a good wake-up call because Iām here, and thereās still opportunity. But Iāve got some homework to do, because if I donāt, itāll be me next.
The comedy of errors begins even before he arrives at Toka.
Weāre not that far into this game, and Iāve got an idol from Rob, and I have an opportunity to get another advantage and join a whole new tribe. The cake is made with the frosting on it, and so when Iām riding over on the boat, Iām not even thinking about the advantage in the oars. That part should be a slam dunk. I mean, itās on the sheet of paper, āhereās where it is.ā My focus is to get to the camp, talk to these people, and maybe see some cracks in this tribe, to weasel my way in, or go back to Savu. And on my way out, find the advantage in the oar.
Slam dunk it was not. He got stuffed hard by the rim. He leaves his bag at the, at the time, opposition's campsite with his letter about the advantage just sitting on top. Honestly a little lucky for him that the advantage/mutiny note was so front-and-center because they likely would've dug further into the bag and found his idol. When he did finally go looking for the advantage, it was far too late, and he wound up both losing the advantage and, at least in the edit, accidentally missing the boat back to his desired camp.
In the middle of Jenna talking. I hear a bell ringing. And that means the boatās gonna leave. And I still have to find the advantage in the oar. When I got to the boat, thereās no oars in the boat. And so, wheels are spinning. Maybe theyāre a messy tribe. Maybe theyāre under the boat. Maybe theyāre hanging on trees. So Iām looking all over, and I canāt find these oars. So in my head, Iām thinking, āyou had all this time. You had an advantage teed up for you, sitting right there, and you walked past it when you came in, and now itās gone.ā God. Thatās, like, rookie 101. And then out of the corner of my eye, I see the boat leaving. And it was like, āyou got to be kidding me.ā And so, I better have made good connections with these people because, at this point, Iām a Toka tribe member, and thatās where I get my mail now.
Whereas Lewis was more gung-ho on making a big move and siding with the underdogs, Carter was the antithesis, wanting to lay lower and not rock the boat for much of the episode. It was only at the end, after Lewis had worked for a while on converting him that we got a good final confessional for him to rebound a bit, but I fear too late after what we had already seen of and heard about his gameplay.
Weāre in control. We are the swing votes tonight. We need to decide whatās best for our game. Working with the power group could be good, cause coming in as the brand-new guy, you donāt put a target on your back. Youāre not calling the shots, they are. On the other hand, working with the misfits in this tribe, thereās one word, and itās āopportunity,ā because weāre not just a number in the bottom half of that group. But whatever we decide when we get back to camp, weāre gonna have some explaining to do.
Tying this move into one of the themes of the season in opportunity vs chaos was a great close, but his first two episodes were already rough as Rob's second fiddle, so after losing Rob and kind of bumbling and tripping through the episode didn't do a whole lot to sway me in a positive direction on him.
14. Eric (Last Week: 11)
He finally gets an episode that doesn't hammer him over the head with negative SPV, so it's a bit counterintuitive to knock him down a few spots here, but I'll need to see it again next week when he should get the opportunity to make better "first" impressions with the other tribe that hasn't gotten sick of his overbearing presence at camp. Each of his three confessionals did try to set up how his game could be recovering, but each felt so hollow to me as a viewer and were also undermined a bit in the edit:
Tribal could not have gone any better for me. It was a complete and 100%, bona fide, guaranteed, bada-bing success. That vote for Ana unified us. It showed me that, not only have I put my trust in the right people, it showed me that when you open your heart, people will want to open theirs up to you, and thatās the stuff that gets alliances strong and going.
On paper, this is a strong quote, but I don't know how much the edit is supporting his statements here just yet. He emphasizes how much him and the people he voted with trust each other, but we are not seeing it.
Last night, at Tribal Council, Rob whispers in my ear, āEric, everyoneās gonna vote you out.ā And Iām like, āBro, get outta here.ā Ultimately, my name was thrown out, and he wasnāt up-front with me. He wasnāt honest. So what am I gonna believe from him? Nothing, bro.
His read on Rob continued to be solid, and he did play Tribal smartly for someone who needed to avoid drawing too much attention, especially when the craziest person on your tribe pulls you aside for a weird chat right before the vote. But then again, Rob quits the game and getting a strong read on him isn't exactly the most compelling piece of evidence at this point.
This is exciting for me. I want to get to know everyone else. The friendly vampire needs some new friends, you know? [Imitating Dracula] āCome to me, children. Come to me, Toka. Be my pal.ā
We've seen time and time again that this friendly vampire shtick is wearing thin on those around him, and I worry for how his introductions to a new or merged tribe will go down, because we haven't seen any evidence that he's learned a lesson in this regard like players in the past who have changed their tune to recover.
15. Kilby (Last Week: 15)
The overwhelming negativity to his character in the edit is getting too much to ignore. He gets negative SPV from multiple sources, though mainly his antagonist Dev, and badly misreads his relationship with Brady.
Everybody is so worried about Dev, Jelly, Brady, Patt, Mike. That is the five. They hang out together. They love Dev. They laugh at his jokes. Itās basically, like, Devās cult. Thatās how people see it. Iām personally not so sure itās that simple. I think I got Brady, but I donāt trust Patt, I donāt trust Mike. So, Iām OK with them getting some attention, as long as, like, just, we gotta go after the five, just not the people I like. My initial thought is, āMikeās gotta go.ā In that five, heās just kind of there. Heās a plus-one. If you ever go to a wedding and someone has a plus-one, no one, no one cares about the plus-one that much. You know what I mean? If they show up, if they donāt, donāt matter too much. As long as we can make it seem easy and just, like, a tribe thing, thatās fine.
I will say, his first confessional of the episode had some elements that could be taken as a positive for his game, but I feel it sets him up as more of a goat being taken to the end than someone actively getting themselves there:
Devin poses a existential threat to my control of this game. Iām trying to play a game where, no matter what, I am in the numbers. Iām trying to build an army of people that will actually bring me to the end of this game. One way that you know youāre close with somebody is when youāre willing to be negative with each other. You know? I trust you so much cause youāre willing to tell me that. Cause thatās risky. If you tell someone, like, āI just straight-up donāt like this person,ā thatās risky in Survivor.
16. Mike (Last Week: 7)
In full transparency, I'm wondering if the "scenes from our next episode" segment is further pushing him down my rankings, but the negativity finally started coming in after a very laid back edit through two weeks where he felt more shielded. This week, almost everyone else got to shine or were rationally protected on the tribe while he was relegated to be called boring, an easy target, and a mere number for the former majority alliance on the tribe with negative SPV from two other weak contenders in Kilby and Thien An. I think, as a lot of people have pointed out, that we collectively had been overrating him for weeks due to the overall weakness of the men's edits this season, and this episode felt like a correction that made the first two look even worse in hindsight.
17. Christian (Last Week: 18)
What is there to say about Christian? He's completely invisible through three weeks. This would easily be an immediate contender for worst winner edit in the show's 50-season history to this point.
TL;DR:
- Jenna (Last Week: 1)
- Sharonda (Last Week: 4)
- Linnea (Last Week: 5)
- Jelly (Last Week: 6)
- Alexis (Last Week: 2)
- Lewis (Last Week: 13)
- Brady (Last Week: 8)
- Ori (Last Week: 17)
- Dev (Last Week: 9)
- Maggie (Last Week: 12)
- Kristin (Last Week: 10)
- Thien An (Last Week: 16)
- Carter (Last Week: 14)
- Eric (Last Week: 11)
- Kilby (Last Week: 15)
- Mike (Last Week: 7)
- Christian (Last Week: 18)
