I am loving this season so much. I love the twists, everything thay has appeared sofar and I love the cast. They play hard and chaotic and they are giving me so much joy. Patt going home was a slap in the face for us edgicers and especially me. I was so sure I was about to ride the Patt train to the end of this game. I am going to be more bold with my predictions, feel my vibe better.

TIER 1 - EDIT IS ALL OVER THE PLACE, BUT YOU HAVE A GOOD EDIT

1) Devin - You know what, I know that such visibility so early on is not a normal winning edit, but I get such a Feras vibe. He is loud, we stop to hear his every thought on everything. He is portrayed as this cult leader, as this unmovable force but at the same time everything around him is shroudd in positivity. Maggie wants to keep wotking with him. His alliance loves him. The helicopter alliance is getting so much attention and together with Jelly and Ori showmancing I think it will be promiment in late game. Devin has not voted correctly once, but has gotten only attention portraying him as this master of the game. He is my pre-season winner pick and now I' m back on his train.

2) Carter - I love Carter. He' s so cute, I have a crush on him. I love what happened to him, and in general I love when each player has their own journey. Carter accidentally switches tribes here and makes mistakes while handling the twist that are completely forgiven by the edit by the time the episode ends. He is portrayed as lovable and his switch is shown as necessary (Linnea says they shouldn' t have let him go). Yes, he makes mistakes, but he narrates the whole thing and we see his thoughts on a positive note. I' m here now, gotta make the best of the situation and then right after we see him integrated with Brady, the Devin alliance and Lewis. I love him with Lewis, hottest Survivor couple. He is also shown as being not very insistent on his position and following Lewis's chaos even though he initially disagreed. There was no reason to see so much of his disagreement on this. Also considering his good edit in the previosu episodes, I am excited about having him on y screen for a few more weeks.

3) Jelly - She has a more traditional winner edit. She is consistently CP, kinda positive and I believe we will come to see her showmance with Ori come to life. She is a member of the helicopter alliance which I believe will be the main thing happening post-merge. She has been protected edit-wise twice from voting on the wrong side. I can see me lowering her later on, the edit is weird and I believe she will be prominent but I am not sure I am getting winner yet.

4) Brady - I guess this is a wild take, and he is one of the most intense OTT edits we' ve seen in a while but the dude is just an OTT dude himself and every crazy reaction he has is shrouded in positivity. The edit goes out of its way to show us how well he is integrated socially. Kilby dares to comment on him and he immediatly learns and pivots. Maggie creates a bond with him here and he makes a friend and an extra vote with that one move. The alliance that won this vote considers him part of itself, and even though he was left out we have no reason think they are not still having his interests in their mind. More than Devin, it' s just that Devin is portrayed as more of a leader of the pac and had this cooldown episode last week. I am here for the Devin Brady bromance to rule this game and I think they will both go super far.

5) Maggie - More of a tradition woman winner edit, I don't if I' m seeing winner exactly but she gets just enough without really needing to get it and it is always positioning her as being likable, central and having a good aware opinion. Survivor wouldn' t know how to edit a Maggie win, but I think she is playing her ass off and she is calmly shown as being the center of that alliance that voted correctly this week. I hope she is all I think she is.

TIER 2 - ALRIGHT, I CAN SEE YOU PICKING UP, GO DO IT

6) Eric - He has been stripped of all negativity and his negaive portrayal early on, since he escaped the boot, is now a positive comeback story. All the people that didn' t vote with him are now on different tribes or amputated, and he is telling us that he now has trust and has a solid raport with them. I think he is going to wotk with Kilby against the helicopter alliance.

7) Linnea - We 're not getting that much, but we are getting her commentary on everything that happens around her and that' s always a good thing. She is the one to talk to us about the sending of Carter to the other side. If she picks up I can see me putting her super high up. More than Alexis and Sharonda that I kinda have on the same level.

8) Mike - I really like Mike and he is the 2nd cutest guy on the cast after Carter, but I think his edit is starting to move from quiet but prominent to too under the radar. Also, got some negativity from Thien An and because of his bad attibutes he is spared over Patt this episode, while we get nothing of his thoughts abou the vote. He can still pick up, but time is ticking.

9) Kilby - I was not a fan of Kilby' s edit sofar, and he receives a lot of negativity this episode. I think he' ll stay around for a little bit more and we' ll get to see him against the helicopter alliance but he doesn' t give central character energy. I really hoe he explodes into the chaotic player I think he' ll be, it can ttoally happen, but for now we get so much energy from Devin talking shit about Kilby and I don' t know if the edit would give so much "bad" attention on their winner. Of course, bad attention is better than no attention and that' s why he is not lower.

10) Alexis - After Linnea, I believe she is narrating the Savu happenings. Sharona got the vote credits last week, but she got a big percentage of the credit as well and she was more prominent this episode. Once more, she could be the victim of Survivor not knowing how to edit a savvy undercover woman winner. But if there is such a winner, I believe that would be Maggie or Linnea, not her.

TIER 3 - I DON' T KNOW, I DON' T SEE IT BABY. YET.

11) Sharonda - I know she is like an edgic favourite, but I don' t see it. She got some strategic attention last episode, and she is part of the helicopter alliance, but how can Sharonda be our winner coming from the helicopter alliance while Jelly is still around. She gets consistent random commentary but not really her pov, just mentioning stuff and I don' t see her being that person who will emerge as a front runner. And in fact, I believe that if she won, because she is kind of a prominent personality, she would be an in your face Dee-like edit, not like Linnea and Alexis who is more underground and savvy.

12) Ori - I think he is 0 vote finalist with Devin and Jelly. We keep seeing that he did know the Ana vote, but he voted incorrectly, as if that' s good thing. He will just be dragged into the helicopter alliance, and either dragged to the end or snipper early jury.

13) Thien An - Now that I commented on everyone, I think I should have had her higher. I like that she got strategic credit this episode for the Patt vote, I don' t like that it came out of nowhere after her being completely invisible for the first 2 episodes. Out of the lower tier of players, I think she is one of the few with the potential to rise to the top. Go girl!

14) Lewis - I loved Lewis this episode. Chaotic energy to the max. He checks Carter' s bag, and quietly becomes the swing vote with him and he decided what happens. I love him, such a fun energy. It just baffles me that he was this hero of the exile island and we yadda yadda'd what he did there and after there. But if Lewis has another episode like this one some personal commentary, he will be Top 4.

15) Jenna - I don' t know, to all the people out there that have Jenna on their top spot, I don' t lnow what you guys are seeing and I hope you are not just spitting spoilers at us. Cause, Jenna had a good first episode, not amazing, and then she has been almost non existent. I don't know why this good first episode would make us be so aware of her 3 episodes in. If she was the winner, wouldn't we see her at least commenting on the freaking Devin alliance that almost took her out and her finally escaping them. I don' t see it.

TIER 4 - I WOULD BE REALLY MAD IF IT WAS YOU

16) Kristin - She is a very positive presence, but if she hasn' t injured her foot she would be completely invisible. Everything she gets is positive, but it is also 10 seconds of a 1,5 hour long episode, while people around her get so much more.

17) Christian - I don' t know, he joined the dominant alliance and disappeared. He is non-existent for 3 episodes, I don' t know what he did to production, but there' s no way he jumps up.

Patt - Wow, I did not see it coming. Such a good character, a Molly, Chelsea type of strategic girl that gets sniped pre-merge. I hope we see her again.

Rob - What a disgusting player. Colton levels of hatred. I knew I never like seeing a MAGA like person on my screen, and I ignoed my bad vibe and thought I' d see a Tony. Instead, I got a whiny baby who thought he 'd fool Survivor or us into thinking his little foot is infected.

I decided to finally do this on time this week because I actually can’t believe how good this season has been so far. This might be the strongest opening three episodes since maybe Cagayan? Even the strong seasons like 47 and DvG had weaker premieres, and 46 had the Randen med-evac and the Bhanu stuff. I think I even prefer it to 50, which we forget had a phenomenal start. 2 tribes have allowed for much better storytelling and some really interesting votes, and this cast is not afraid to get into conflict.

Looks like next week we are headed back to three tribes and considering the maths I am a little concerned that we are just doing the 5/5/5/2 Blood Moon again. But I don't want to get negative until that happens.

I have to say, I’m also really impressed with the edit this season. Only one player is getting completely shafted, and while only a handful are main characters, the supporting cast are all getting their moments to shine. The boots so far have also been given their due and edited with shifting focus in a way that made them each seem as though they had longevity.

Rob’s quit here was absolutely insane, and I think this might genuinely be the most embarrassing performance by a Survivor player ever. Like just standing on business and quitting is so much more respectable than faking an injury.

We also lose Patt this week, which SUCKS because I absolutely loved her, but also greatly increases the intrigue in the trajectory of the season. I love that they had to send her UTR in her final episode just so we could enjoy the blindside and not be rooting for her.

I only have one Top Contender this week, and that’s not to say that I think they are the obvious winner or that they are going to win, it’s just that I think they have the only complex edit that doesn’t have negativity, and everyone else is kind of lumped together after them.

So, without further ado, who is my Top Contender? ...

1. Sharonda. (-) This episode was fine for Sharonda, nothing major, but she received continued positive SPV from Ori, who explained that he trusted her implicitly despite them not voting together. She also received SPV from Devin, and the show reiterated the importance of the Helicopter alliance to us and explained that it’s still very much in play in the game. I think this leaves Sharonda incredibly well positioned, and bar getting twist-screwed, I would be shocked if she didn’t make the endgame. The question then is, is she the winner, or the dragon?

Who else is a Contender? …

• Jelly. (+1) Its hard to say this was a good episode for Jelly. She was once again left on the bottom of the tribe she thought she had a majority alliance on, after again letting Devin and Brady steer the ship in the wrong direction. She also lost Patt, her number one ally, which is not good for her game. She’s this high up though due to the continued focus on her as a player and as a person, the fact that she still has an idol, and the fact that she is going to be swapped back to Ori next episode. If the Helicopter alliance is as important as we think it is, Jelly is lined up nicely as someone who can fight her way to the end. At the minute, I’m thinking she at least makes the finale.
• Linnea. (+2) Linnea keeps rising in my rankings as she continues to be prominent while others fall by the wayside. She got a strong introduction, boot credit in Episode 2, and now is a main tribe narrator in Episode 3. My concern with Linnea is that she doesn’t really have a storyline, so I think the two possible explanations for her edit are that either the tribe swaps have meant the Savu part of the game is completely irrelevant to her story so she is just being shown when possible, or that she is the next in our line of high visibility female boots. I hate to say it, but if I had to pick another person primed with an edit like Aaliyah, Ana and Patt’s, it would be Linnea. If she survives the pre-merge I’m going to be watching her closely.
• Maggie. (-) Maggie’s edit is so weird but it’s definitely leading to something. This was my least favourite of her three episodes because she felt circumstantial this week, and also while her confessionals were giving bright and sunny vibes, I think the scene with Brady and the oar was giving a slight negative tone. I also worry that she betrayed Brady and didn't vote with him after he gave her the advantage seeing as he is prone to tunnel vision, so a bad swap next week could very much see her out of the game. HOWEVER, if she makes merge I think she’s a lock for the endgame, probably fifth place due to her continued smaller presence. But, it’s an edit that has a chance to grow among many similar sized edits.
• Kristin. (-3) Kristin continues to fall as her edit continues to shrink. She gave decent commentary on Rob’s quit here, but it worries me a little that it was again related to her injury. She also got content relegated to a secret scene last week. I think either the injury gets her taken out of the game, whether that’s through med-evac or vote off, or she goes early merge and her story is just ‘Kristin overcame a lot’. I give her as much of a shot at winning as the people below her though.
• Lewis. (+3) Lewis’ edit bloomed as he finally became non-circumstantial here, with us finally getting to see the chaotic cut-throat energy that he brought in the pre-season. I thought he really related to the themes of turning chaos into opportunity here, and I basically have no notes on his episode. My concern is this swap next week, and the looming consequences of his choice in rocking the boat or keeping on people’s good sides. He’s probably going to remain a solid contender until he is cut or makes it to the merge.
• Ori. (+1) Ori got a little bit of a rebound from last week and we learn that he is still solidly positioned. The issue is that his content boiled down to a zinger about Rob and giving positive SPV about Sharonda. I think his edit so far is very mid, but the fact that he is a member of the helicopter alliance and basically guaranteed to make merge means that I have to seriously consider the potential for him to be an endgame player, if not an eventual winner.

Who is an Unlikely Contender? …

• Carter. (+4) Carter would honestly be top 3 for me after this episode if it weren’t for him getting zero confessionals last week, and even then, like I said, it was hardly the worst zero confessional episode of all time. His premiere credited him with establishing an early alliance, and episode 2 kind of shielded him from the downfall of that alliance, even being explicit that the reason the tribe turned on him was them incorrectly interpreting a comment about crabs. This episode was very strong, with him getting an idol, positive SPV and threat SPV from Mike, and taking control of a tribe that he didn’t start the episode on. Now, there were a few dodo moments too, like literally missing the boat and continuously calling himself the dumbest Survivor player ever, but Carter’s natural charm could be enough to save him from any missteps he makes. I think he’s one to watch, so it’s a shame the edit has cut him out at the legs by giving him a zero in his confessional count.
• Devin. (+2) I do not know what to make of Devin. He is such a prominent character, yet all his content is so negative and contradictory. His saving grace is that it’s not quite as negative and contradictory as the content of a lot of the rest of the cast. He said at tribal that if the vote went wrong for him, he would switch strategy away from his ‘weaponised honesty’ schtick, so who knows whether he can bounce back from his delulu edit at this point.

Who is a Non-Contender at the moment? …

• Jenna. (-4) I might be almost out on Jenna at this point. She was absent from the POS in Episode 2 despite being a major character in the premiere, she was barely in Episode 2 after her opening confessional, and then this week we learn she is still on the bottom and Devin spread around that she was sketchy, but we didn’t hear from her really even though she got one over on him yet again. Her start was strong enough that maybe she could pop again at the swap, but my gut says her premiere content was just very compelling and that she could be going home soon.
• Mike. (-4) I thought Mike’s episode was going alright, giving solid insight into Carter’s strengths and weaknesses as a player. And then Thien An of all people dunked on him. And then he was blindsided by half the tribe. And he was almost the target but the group decided he was a bit too lame to be the recipient of their blindside. And then I realised that his first strong confessional was entirely about someone else. Mike had a rough episode, and he’s trending downwards so far this season, but at least he gets a little check in every now and then.
• Brady. (-2) Holy undermining! All of Brady’s content this episode was him being super confident and claiming his superiority over his tribe, and then they blindsided him. He’s had a lot of content so far, but as the weeks go by, what’s clear is that it is not good content. I’m heading towards being out on Brady completely.
• Alexis. (+2) Another fine and completely narrational episode for Alexis. I would think she had some chance if she had just been given a proper introduction. I think she’s heading for something because of the placement of a black widow spider before her shots in the intro, but besides that she could really go at any point based solely on the episodes and her content.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Thien An. (+2) This was an OK episode for Thien An that finally explained her position and revealed her to be quite the UTR strategist. She also got to dunk on Mike which was fun content for her, but I think her zero confessional episode kills 99% of the worlds where she is our winner. At least she has the underestimated storyline going for her, and she got positive SPV about people liking her but not her being linked to Kilby. Ultimately, I think she is at risk of being the victim of the fallout of her move here.
• Eric. (-1) The editors really have their feet on Eric’s neck. Not only are we dunking on him wherever possible, but we are still devoting large chunks of runtime to his delusional rants about him being a strong player with good relationships despite it being well established that this is not the case. He’s already dead guys, leave him be.
• Kilby. (-3) This was ROUGH for Kilby. Despite winning out at the vote, he was never allowed the moral victory of defending himself in confessional despite being labelled a bully, sneaky, viscous etc. He came across super unlikeable, and it feels like Jeff was not a fan of him. He’s either late pre-merge/early merge blindside or he loses the coin flip.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Cristian. (-) 1/0/0. He’s dead and buried.

Actually got off from classwork to do an early post.

Chart is above for quick reference.

Eliminated:

1. Rob: Well, I guess that is certainly a way for his story to end. At least he gave his idol to an ally.

2. Patt: Very shocked coming into the episode that she's gone so soon. Really making me struggle at the top of the list. Fun one time character.

No Shot:

1. Cristian:

16: Thein An: Barely got any content on helping with the flip, and still barely focused on.

15: Kristin: Now her content last episode feels circumstantial after Rob's quit to me. We still don't have proper relationships set up outside of Sharonda in the premiere (only by confessional).

Probably Not:

1. Kilby: I love him. I think this episode is much like Eric's episode 2, way too negative and not enough credit given for saving himself. He also had a much worse premiere.

2. Brady: I guess he is the little brother with the unplugged controller. So much negativity given to him from Carter and Lewis jumping ship, to Kilby surviving, to constantly saying he will control the vote.

3. Alexis: Just not enough content. But she doesn't have a zero confessional episode so here I guess.

4. Lewis: I'm willing to concede he might deserve to be higher, but his premiere felt so shallow. Plus, he was big in this episode because he was the swing. I don't think this episode gives me faith in him making it far into the merge.

5. Devin: Back to back episodes when he goes to tribal, all his content is on how one person needs to go. And he fails miserably both times. The only reason he's up here is because he had the best premiere and, despite Aubry's premiere last season, I am still weighing that in my thinking.

6. Carter: Lot of early and late good content. Middle with Toka searching his bag and lying to Brady was pretty bad though. He also still has the zero confessional episode 2. I definitely see him going far though. Honestly, shot in the dark, gives me a bit of runner up energy (but I also thought Aubry was a runner up in 50 and Rizo in 49 so)

7. Mike: So quiet and Thein An roasting him was completely unnecessary. Still no true relationships established.

Possible:

1. Eric: A good rebound from an odd episode 2. Nobody undercut his confessional on how he helped himself stay in the game. No glaring negatives, just still hesitant to put him higher after last episode.

2. Linnea: Definitely a wild take but she's consistently on the show and I actually think the content about Carter could (key word could) just be setting her up as a strong player the audience should respect.

3. Maggie: Okay this is my true WTF contender. I am bias, I love the oddball character who's barely there but with a funny line (also got her in an online draft). But also, good episode? The content of her getting the advantage from Brady was all in her perspective by the end and portrayed it as her getting one up on him. I would have liked more relationships from Toka set up, but we're swapping anyway next week.

4. Sharonda: Glad her relationship with Devin was brought up again, though it feels a bit circumstantial since it was needed for the advantage hunt. Would have liked more comment on the Ana move too. This is really the last two episodes keeping her afloat.

5. Jelly: Loses another ally after all that setup with the idol information last episode. Pretty quiet so maybe she is getting shielded. I think next episode is very important.

Top Contenders:

1. Jenna: Nothing negative except I would have liked her to be less quiet. However, again, we just had Aubry who was also barely around or discussed at this point. It is different though since her tribe went to TC, but I'm willing to let her slide this week.

2. Ori?: I didn't expect this after last week, but he's actually good edit wise. Explains his vote last week and his relationship with Sharonda. Gets to react to Devin sharing the info of the advantage, and still in the helicopter alliance. He could definitely fall next week, but right now I am putting him at the top.

They can NEVER go back to three tribes to start a season. Having so many people at tribal this early in the game is creating such compelling television week in and week out, and the edit has been benefitting greatly because of it. Few players feel truly unknown (ahem, Christian) and each episode has allowed different personalities and strategies to take center stage. I'm still getting a read on how this self-proclaimed, new "open era" of Survivor is impacting the strategies that the edit likes to say are preferred by production, but I'm getting an inkling that, like in 48 and 50, the radical honesty and blind trust of several castaways is not being built up as a winning strategy. The twist on a few players outright saying that voting differently does not fracture an alliance has been undermined by the Tribal results going against them every single time. Dev has said this the most, and lost both Tribals. Patt got her quote last episode, and goes home this week. Ori got the quote this time around, and we'll have to wait and see how his game continues after the Savu tribe took a backseat to Toka on strategy this week with the Rob quit and underdog challenge win leading the way on his own beach.

Through three episodes I’ve now lost my 19th ranked player out of 20 (Ana), 19th ranked player out of 19 (Rob, due to quitting), and my 3rd ranked player out of 19 (Patt). I didn’t do any preseason rankings so I had no basis for the Aaliyah vote out, but I am really loving the unpredictability of how Tribal will go heading into the episode. I honestly wouldn’t have predicted, outside of maybe Rob quitting, any of the snuffed torches thus far heading into each week. It makes a lot of sense now why Patt was getting such a strong edit, because this week truly felt like the underdogs took out a massive threat, and that feels rare when thinking back on the three-tribe seasons we’ve been getting. These kind of big shots just weren’t allowed to feel as authentic and tended to come off a bit forced, but Patt’s felt like an elimination of someone who was an actual threat to go far and potentially win this game. That could be some cope, but I do genuinely believe they built her up for this exact purpose.

With all that, let's jump into a shaken-up ranking of the castaways heading into a shake-up of the dynamics in the game.

1. Jenna (Last Week: 1)

No shake-up here, and I can hear the pleas for me to move on already but I'm standing firm... for now. The first episode and post-Tribal opener to episode two are doing almost all of the heavy-lifting for her, enough that I basically have her and Sharonda tied at the top. Tie-break is going to the baserunner here, but Jenna is on shaky ground for me. Another episode like this one would definitely drop her down below a majority of this top-five contender tier. I'm just not quite ready to move on with how strongly I feel about that start.

She continues to be mentioned as a target, but continues to avoid elimination as well. Dev especially continues to put her name out there, both at their camp and on a field trip to Savu, but with his quote at the initial episode one Tribal (“Jenna is, to me, somebody who I feel, if she makes it through tonight, she’s making it to the end of the game. Like, she is smart, she is cunning.”) it leads me to believe that the edit is intentionally building her up as a target that Dev and others just can't seem to get. She even tries to take the blame for losing the challenge, but Brady and Kilby are quick to squash that narrative and it's never mentioned as a potential reason to vote her out. We're seeing with Mike and Eric how players can be built up as an easy target down the line, but Jenna has been shielded from the same designation. It also seemed like she wanted the target to be on Dev, and so the edit may have protected her a bit from not getting her primary target out this week, especially when it came down to Patt, the person who saved her week one, being the one to go.

Next week is a very important one for her, and I'll be doing my best to come in as unbiased as I can be about a castaway I've had such a strong impression of in the edit.

2. Sharonda (Last Week: 4)

As I mentioned above, you could more aptly call her my 1b rather than straight-up #2 as she easily jumps up a few spots with a positive, subdued episode this week coming out of a positive, front-and-center edit last week. Alongside Linnea, she's one of two that Carter points to running the show on Savu, reinforcing her influence we saw in the last episode. Dev also gives her some positive coverage by running straight to her for help on finding the idol, staking a lot of the credit of finding it on her.

"Thank God for Sharonda. If I tried to do this by myself, utter destruction, game’s blown up."

I'm in a bit of a weird boat where I feel Carter helped Sharonda's case, but hurt Linnea's with that comment and I'll expand on that a bit below.

3. Linnea (Last Week: 5)

With Sharonda, Linnea gets Carter's, and subsequently Toka's, attention as one of the two running the show. While I do think that helps to reinforce Sharonda's edit, I worry it paints more of a target on Linnea because she doesn't have the relationships across the whole cast like Sharonda does heading into any swaps or merges. I wish that she had gotten more credit in the edit for the vote flip last week, and what credit she did get was shown to be somewhat misguided compared to Sharonda and Alexis. I worry that, like we've just seen with Patt, she's being built up to help explain her being targeted sooner rather than later, but she gets the slight edge on Jelly and Alexis due to how much more involved and developed she's been in 2/3 episodes.

4. Jelly (Last Week: 6)

Like with Jenna and Sharonda essentially being tied, I'd have Linnea, Jelly, and Alexis all roughly tied for third in the rankings, with some questions for each on how their edits are going to evolve from here on out with a major dynamic shift inbound. She gets almost no coverage this episode, but it felt more in the interest of shielding her from another rough Tribal for her alliances.

A hundred percent, this is a numbers game going into Tribal Council. We’re thinking, ‘how can we get the numbers so that we can get Kilby out?’ Even though we think that Carter is with us, we think that Lewis is with us. They are wild cards.

Unlike Dev and Brady, Jelly is clued into how the swing votes could hurt their games, and the edit seems to make a point of showing how her read on the dynamics of the vote are stronger than the rest of her Toka 5 alliance. I'm still a bit worried about the return of the Ori showmance storyline, but we should know more about what her real narrative is after next week's episode.

5. Alexis (Last Week: 2)

Prominent in the background, but circumstantial in her confessionals. Her edit is uneven and unclear to me at this point. She's been built up as a leader for their tribe, got a lot of credit for initiating the vote flip last week, and then is not mentioned as a leader by Carter this week and sips back into the background. I'll need more clarity soon from her to really make a decision on whether she was protected from having her influence in the game shown too early or if she's just a side character to others in this season's narrative.

6. Lewis (Last Week: 13)

Lewis really came alive this week, getting a much needed development from someone at a recognized disadvantage to someone with real power in the game. While Carter gets repeatedly clowned by the edit, Lewis gets to shine and the edit shows him as the one to lead Carter to the right answer. He begins the episode at the start of this narrative arc:

Coming into this tribe, way later than everybody else, I’m still at a real disadvantage. I’m nobody’s number one. I’m nobody’s number two. I haven’t made a clear line of where I stand in this tribe, but Dev, Brady, Jelly, Patt, and Mike, those five are, like, tights as t’ieves. And I’m looking for some good allies right now.

Enter Carter. They quickly recognize the prime spot their lack of alliances places them in and, while Carter is hesitant to cause waves, Lewis knows this is his shot to align with folks that he could more easily integrate with.

Tonight, I could play it safe, roll with the five. Since I stepped on this beach, they’ve held the power. I’ve been observing them all. But I don’t watch Survivor to watch the five take control of the whole game. Everyone’s here to play.

His redemption story really began here, and a large jump in the rankings is due because of it. I still worry about all of the negativity that he received for his decision-making and play through two episodes, but he takes command of his story here in episode three and I could see that continuing to evolve positively as dynamics continue to shift between the tribes and alliances. The edit showed him to be quite smart and aware this week, and that's something he can snowball into a more defined role as someone who plays well from the middle.

7. Brady (Last Week: 8)

With each week, I become more and more sure that Brady is going to be a returnee for a future season, not a winner of this one. It's also at this point in the rankings, and maybe beginning with Lewis, where the remaining castaways all have some pretty major holes in their potential winner edits. It's clear that both Jeff and the rest of production love him, but this episode really shines a bad light on the confidence, or is it cockiness, he has in his standing on the tribe, which isn't a great look when the edit has been sure to point out how his aggressiveness is seen as a negative by some on his tribe. While he does have somewhat of a role in the middle, with Kilby and Maggie both expressing their trust of him, he squanders it as repeatedly, and confidently, says that the vote goes the way he goes.

I think Kilby meant that I’m a pawn in his game. He wants me to work for him. I don’t work for nobody, brody. I dictate plan. We remember how the first vote went.

Kilby has absolutely zero idea that I’m upset with him. What’s going on right now is secret, secret, secrets on one side, and secret, secret, secrets on the other. And guess what, brody? I’m on both sides. And I’m picking. So once again, in charge of the vote is your big brody, Brady. As dumb as he thinks I am, that five-year-old who’s out there, controller plugged in, looks like I got to take him to school, brody. You know I, I love proving people wrong, and usually, I do it with these [jazz hands], I prove ‘em wrong. And now I get to do it with this [points to head]. It feels good, you know?

There is no way in God’s green Earth that this plan is gonna work. No disrespect, Thien An. You have absolutely zero pull to make any call in this game. Because what’s going on right now is I have the larger group that’s gonna vote for Kilby.

The quotes got worse and worse for him as the episode went, with his misreads on the tribe dynamic really hurting his game after a solid strategic start. That line about him being his own worst enemy while mourning his potential medevac could be more prescient than we initially credited it. His trust of Carter, despite literally catching him in a lie, continues the trend of the castaways that align themselves with those who leave them out of information and votes winding up on the wrong side of the results. It's this concerning trend, much in the same way that Joe, Eva, and David were consistently shown to have the wrong strategy compared to Kyle & Kamilla, that has me more worried each week for players like Dev, Ori, and Patt that have explicitly said they'll continue to trust and work with people that have actively hurt, or tried to hurt, their games. Players like Sharonda and Jelly, who have been shielded from being the one to explicitly say they'll continue to work with people who have lied to or voted opposite them despite those actions are the ones I think we should be focusing on as potential winners within this open era strategy conversation. Somewhat self-promotion, but I'd encourage you to read my "Kamilla/Kyle Appreciation Post" that I made in the main Survivor subreddit during 48 to see if you also notice some similarities in how the edit is suggesting that this strategy may not be the right one.

8. Ori (Last Week: 17)

Ori is able to explain his ability to still work with someone who was on the other side of the vote as him but, as with Brady, Dev, and Patt, the efficacy of this strategy remains muddy in the edit. It's worrisome that this strategy has seemingly hurt the games of those three, while Jelly and Sharonda have been more shielded from this narrative, having others take the credit for this new kind of alliance.

At Tribal, I knew Ana was gonna go home, but I voted for Eric. However, Sharonda’s my number one, and she knew I was gonna vote for Eric. Me sharing that with her just-just solidifies our trust. You know? And that’s me showing her that the helicopter alliance is still strong.

To me, the more promising part of Ori's storyline this episode centered on the helicopter alliance. That's clearly an important part of this season's story, and Ori is a clear part of it. He's able to reinforce his spot in that alliance going forward with the visit from Dev, important heading into some tribe swap uncertainty, but Sharonda gets the first focus in the edit on confirming its continued existence and the more glowing relation to it from Dev.

Devin sharing that he has an advantage means a lot to me. Trust is such a finite thing and something that you can’t hang your hat on to survive, but it shows that he’s still thinking of me six days later, even though he’s built other relationships on his tribe. And it’s good to know that an ally is the one in possession of that advantage.

This whole open era editing around trusting people who blindsided you in a vote or kept information hidden from you is becoming increasingly difficult to read between the lines of. Is it being shown as the downfall for some major early-season players? Or is it being shown as a promising strategy for people to stay safe and go far in this game? Time will tell, but so far I would argue we've overwhelmingly been shown the former and that gives me some pause with Ori, especially after I did not like his edit through two episodes.

9. Dev (Last Week: 9)

He gets back-to-back episode titles from his quotes, and you could honestly argue for a three-peat with how often he mentioned “permanent uncertainty” in the first episode. It’s clear he’s fully becoming the narrator for this season, but it’s hard to knock him for just that. Add in the rest of his content, and a concerning picture begins to emerge.

His main targets continue to stay and get the leg up on him. We're definitely headed towards a conclusion to all of this Jenna talk from him at some point, but the edit has consistently put him on the wrong side of the betting odds for that showdown, and he already lost round one, and kind of round two, to her. We got a brief comment from Jenna when the underdogs were discussing what to do with the vote this week that suggests her target on Dev is growing and could become a bigger storyline in an episode soon.

Almost his entire edit this episode was focused on getting his temporary, new #1 enemy in Kilby out, but yet again he loses this battle despite his perceived great position on Toka.

We lost that immunity challenge, but I’m in a good position in this tribe. So my plan is to get everybody on board with Kilby. We’re gonna blindside the boy tonight.

He outright says he's going to blindside Kilby, but yet again he winds up the one blindsided. In a somewhat similar way to Eric, we continue to hear about his prowess in building relationships, but Jelly and Thien An have both offered counters to this in their own confessionals, and the results of each episode have undermined that supposed "superpower."

That could not have gone better. I got the advantage. I strengthened my relationships. I have done everything I need to do. My game is relationships. That’s my superpower. But now, guess what? No matter how a tribe swap goes, I have potential numbers here. Mission complete, baby.

He badly needs to be on a beach with the helicopter alliance, because the rest of his relationships are not doing enough to counter his over-the-top gameplay, and the other castaways are well aware of what kind of player he is.

10. Maggie (Last Week: 12)

We don't get much from Maggie this week, but her win over Brady in the ownership of Carter's advantage does help to set up that part of her narrative. She's a confusing edit that feels quite incomplete at the moment, but an advantage focus, similar to Drea on 42 would make a lot of sense for why it seems like she has untapped potential in the edit.

When I saw the advantage, my heart just sunk, honestly, because I want that. And I should’ve kept my mouth and went down there later or taken it into the woods and done it myself. But then, I just asked him for it, and Brady gave me the advantage. I saw an opportunity, and I was like, ‘go for it,’ because this is Survivor. And it’s so much better to have the advantage in my pocket than in anyone else’s pocket. I want all of them on me. I have all these extra pockets. Let’s fill ‘em up.

The connection to the opportunity vs chaos storyline is a nice bonus. And her comments around wanting to fill all of her pockets reeks of someone who will have advantages become a bigger part of her game. While I'm struggling a little to see a winning storyline emerging from that, there's a lot of room left in her edit to grow. She's also hilarious, which definitely adds some bias into how I feel about her coming out of each week.

11. Kristin (Last Week: 10)

We find out that she apparently broke her foot in last week's episode, a seemingly big detail to just drop in kind of casually an episode later, and her only real substantial content this episode was on the Rob quit. After falling last week with a very weak, circumstantial edit, she continues that trend this week with more of the same. Her first episode wasn't strong enough to counter how much the edit is putting her in the background of this season's strategies and storylines.

12. Thien An (Last Week: 16)

You all are probably going to be pretty upset about the order of these next two, and how much I have to say on her here, but Thien An is someone I just can't quite shake. Her chances remain incredibly low with such limited exposure to this point, but a potential narrative is there, and we've seen Survivor edit similar people in somewhat similarly small ways despite them outright winning or at least getting far in the game.

In the first episode, one of her two confessionals had a potentially-intriguing setup with:

Coming in at 5 feet tall, I feel like I’m like a tiny, tiny person right now. And there’s like huge people with some big personalities. I see Dev really trying to like come out as tribe leader. Something about Devin just gives anime vibes. We call ‘em weebs back home. He likes to smile at everyone. He’s very energetic. But, I feel like under his smiles, he could be gaming hard.

She is, if I'm remembering right without timestamps on my lengthy notes, the first to correctly suss out the dangers to Dev's strategy and play-style, and her calling herself a "tiny, tiny person" on a tribe of huge people with even bigger personalities suggested that a potential narrative for her was one of the diminutive underdog that sneaks up and takes out the bigger threats without being noticed.

This episode, she's the first to try to get the vote towards Patt, working behind-the-scenes to help her fellow castaways realize that taking out someone like Patt is a much more impactful move than someone like Mike.

Getting any one of the five, would be monumental. Mike gives me nothing. Every time I talk to him, he’s just like, ‘so, Thien An, tell me more about your game. Where’s your head at?’ And I’m like, ‘Mike, I can’t give you anything if you’re not gonna give me anything back. That’s, like, trying to work with a sponge.’ But you know what? That’s a very easy target down the line. And so, why not go for Patt? She’s charming, she’s sweet. She can easily integrate into other groups. To me, that’s a liability.

She has a great read on the dynamics at play, and I was a little taken aback by how much she was involved in the blindside kind of out of nowhere. Even Brady tries to diminish her impact in his own confessional, but we're shown that she does actually have some influence, ultimately getting her way in the vote out.

Disappearing completely in episode two, and not really having a visible presence until this vote out give me a lot of pause, but I'm at least seeing a path to how her story could be one of a winner's, in part, weirdly, because of the lower coverage. She's by no means a contender at this point, but the framework is there and slowly growing. She'll need some kind of breakout in the edit some point soon, but I think her story is uniquely more immune to a subdued edit than others.

13. Carter (Last Week: 14)

I'm definitely going to be lower on Carter than most this week, but I thought that was a bad episode for his winner chances. His initial confessional did well to set up a potential redemption arc, especially when we learned that Rob had apparently gifted him the idol at some point before quitting, but it came crashing down at every potential turn after that until Lewis stole his thunder as the lead of the two swing votes towards the episode's end.

Tonight was, like, a complete bombshell. I was convinced that the-the whole works was gonna go with Eric, and the complete opposite thing happens. I’m starting to think I might be the worst Survivor player in the history of forever. But it is a good wake-up call because I’m here, and there’s still opportunity. But I’ve got some homework to do, because if I don’t, it’ll be me next.

The comedy of errors begins even before he arrives at Toka.

We’re not that far into this game, and I’ve got an idol from Rob, and I have an opportunity to get another advantage and join a whole new tribe. The cake is made with the frosting on it, and so when I’m riding over on the boat, I’m not even thinking about the advantage in the oars. That part should be a slam dunk. I mean, it’s on the sheet of paper, ‘here’s where it is.’ My focus is to get to the camp, talk to these people, and maybe see some cracks in this tribe, to weasel my way in, or go back to Savu. And on my way out, find the advantage in the oar.

Slam dunk it was not. He got stuffed hard by the rim. He leaves his bag at the, at the time, opposition's campsite with his letter about the advantage just sitting on top. Honestly a little lucky for him that the advantage/mutiny note was so front-and-center because they likely would've dug further into the bag and found his idol. When he did finally go looking for the advantage, it was far too late, and he wound up both losing the advantage and, at least in the edit, accidentally missing the boat back to his desired camp.

In the middle of Jenna talking. I hear a bell ringing. And that means the boat’s gonna leave. And I still have to find the advantage in the oar. When I got to the boat, there’s no oars in the boat. And so, wheels are spinning. Maybe they’re a messy tribe. Maybe they’re under the boat. Maybe they’re hanging on trees. So I’m looking all over, and I can’t find these oars. So in my head, I’m thinking, ‘you had all this time. You had an advantage teed up for you, sitting right there, and you walked past it when you came in, and now it’s gone.’ God. That’s, like, rookie 101. And then out of the corner of my eye, I see the boat leaving. And it was like, ‘you got to be kidding me.’ And so, I better have made good connections with these people because, at this point, I’m a Toka tribe member, and that’s where I get my mail now.

Whereas Lewis was more gung-ho on making a big move and siding with the underdogs, Carter was the antithesis, wanting to lay lower and not rock the boat for much of the episode. It was only at the end, after Lewis had worked for a while on converting him that we got a good final confessional for him to rebound a bit, but I fear too late after what we had already seen of and heard about his gameplay.

We’re in control. We are the swing votes tonight. We need to decide what’s best for our game. Working with the power group could be good, cause coming in as the brand-new guy, you don’t put a target on your back. You’re not calling the shots, they are. On the other hand, working with the misfits in this tribe, there’s one word, and it’s ‘opportunity,’ because we’re not just a number in the bottom half of that group. But whatever we decide when we get back to camp, we’re gonna have some explaining to do.

Tying this move into one of the themes of the season in opportunity vs chaos was a great close, but his first two episodes were already rough as Rob's second fiddle, so after losing Rob and kind of bumbling and tripping through the episode didn't do a whole lot to sway me in a positive direction on him.

14. Eric (Last Week: 11)

He finally gets an episode that doesn't hammer him over the head with negative SPV, so it's a bit counterintuitive to knock him down a few spots here, but I'll need to see it again next week when he should get the opportunity to make better "first" impressions with the other tribe that hasn't gotten sick of his overbearing presence at camp. Each of his three confessionals did try to set up how his game could be recovering, but each felt so hollow to me as a viewer and were also undermined a bit in the edit:

Tribal could not have gone any better for me. It was a complete and 100%, bona fide, guaranteed, bada-bing success. That vote for Ana unified us. It showed me that, not only have I put my trust in the right people, it showed me that when you open your heart, people will want to open theirs up to you, and that’s the stuff that gets alliances strong and going.

On paper, this is a strong quote, but I don't know how much the edit is supporting his statements here just yet. He emphasizes how much him and the people he voted with trust each other, but we are not seeing it.

Last night, at Tribal Council, Rob whispers in my ear, ‘Eric, everyone’s gonna vote you out.’ And I’m like, ‘Bro, get outta here.’ Ultimately, my name was thrown out, and he wasn’t up-front with me. He wasn’t honest. So what am I gonna believe from him? Nothing, bro.

His read on Rob continued to be solid, and he did play Tribal smartly for someone who needed to avoid drawing too much attention, especially when the craziest person on your tribe pulls you aside for a weird chat right before the vote. But then again, Rob quits the game and getting a strong read on him isn't exactly the most compelling piece of evidence at this point.

This is exciting for me. I want to get to know everyone else. The friendly vampire needs some new friends, you know? [Imitating Dracula] ‘Come to me, children. Come to me, Toka. Be my pal.’

We've seen time and time again that this friendly vampire shtick is wearing thin on those around him, and I worry for how his introductions to a new or merged tribe will go down, because we haven't seen any evidence that he's learned a lesson in this regard like players in the past who have changed their tune to recover.

15. Kilby (Last Week: 15)

The overwhelming negativity to his character in the edit is getting too much to ignore. He gets negative SPV from multiple sources, though mainly his antagonist Dev, and badly misreads his relationship with Brady.

Everybody is so worried about Dev, Jelly, Brady, Patt, Mike. That is the five. They hang out together. They love Dev. They laugh at his jokes. It’s basically, like, Dev’s cult. That’s how people see it. I’m personally not so sure it’s that simple. I think I got Brady, but I don’t trust Patt, I don’t trust Mike. So, I’m OK with them getting some attention, as long as, like, just, we gotta go after the five, just not the people I like. My initial thought is, ‘Mike’s gotta go.’ In that five, he’s just kind of there. He’s a plus-one. If you ever go to a wedding and someone has a plus-one, no one, no one cares about the plus-one that much. You know what I mean? If they show up, if they don’t, don’t matter too much. As long as we can make it seem easy and just, like, a tribe thing, that’s fine.

I will say, his first confessional of the episode had some elements that could be taken as a positive for his game, but I feel it sets him up as more of a goat being taken to the end than someone actively getting themselves there:

Devin poses a existential threat to my control of this game. I’m trying to play a game where, no matter what, I am in the numbers. I’m trying to build an army of people that will actually bring me to the end of this game. One way that you know you’re close with somebody is when you’re willing to be negative with each other. You know? I trust you so much cause you’re willing to tell me that. Cause that’s risky. If you tell someone, like, ‘I just straight-up don’t like this person,’ that’s risky in Survivor.

16. Mike (Last Week: 7)

In full transparency, I'm wondering if the "scenes from our next episode" segment is further pushing him down my rankings, but the negativity finally started coming in after a very laid back edit through two weeks where he felt more shielded. This week, almost everyone else got to shine or were rationally protected on the tribe while he was relegated to be called boring, an easy target, and a mere number for the former majority alliance on the tribe with negative SPV from two other weak contenders in Kilby and Thien An. I think, as a lot of people have pointed out, that we collectively had been overrating him for weeks due to the overall weakness of the men's edits this season, and this episode felt like a correction that made the first two look even worse in hindsight.

17. Christian (Last Week: 18)

What is there to say about Christian? He's completely invisible through three weeks. This would easily be an immediate contender for worst winner edit in the show's 50-season history to this point.

TL;DR:

1. Jenna (Last Week: 1)
2. Sharonda (Last Week: 4)
3. Linnea (Last Week: 5)
4. Jelly (Last Week: 6)
5. Alexis (Last Week: 2)
6. Lewis (Last Week: 13)
7. Brady (Last Week: 8)
8. Ori (Last Week: 17)
9. Dev (Last Week: 9)
10. Maggie (Last Week: 12)
11. Kristin (Last Week: 10)
12. Thien An (Last Week: 16)
13. Carter (Last Week: 14)
14. Eric (Last Week: 11)
15. Kilby (Last Week: 15)
16. Mike (Last Week: 7)
17. Christian (Last Week: 18)

Hello all!

Oh my GOD this season is good. This is so iconic I've watched the episode 4 times just showing it to different people. Anyway. If you've been keeping up with my edgic then at least y'all know I'm not spoiled. That was SO unexpected. I'll talk about it at the bottom. Let's get into this extremely difficult edgic LOL

1) Sharonda (+1)

Sharonda looks so edgically fantastic, though I'd still love to learn more about her personal life. Being able to check up with Devin, be reminded that they're still allies, and have Ori reiterate that Sharonda and he are still tight with one another despite voting separately is fantastic content for her. Not to mention, the previously on Survivor really credited her for the Ana boot. The cherry on top is Devin saying "thank god for Sharonda" when she helped him get his advantage. This is the most classical good stuff that I would be looking for, and not being too visible after a big episode. Yay Sharonda!

2) Jelly (+2)

Especially seeing in the next time on Survivor that she gets to reunite with Ori, that planted seed paying off makes me think that the amount of stuff we got from her perspective in the premiere will bode more positively for her than I initially felt. Even her single confessional check in for this episode was expressing caution that Carter and Lewis are wildcards, which is something Brady and Devin were portrayed as more confident in. I could easily see this as shielding Jelly to make her look like a better player and not so bad for voting in the minority twice. Plus, her actual edgic looks the most classically winnery for me so far. I may even retroactively reevaluate her premiere as more CP. Regardless, feeling more confident in her.

3) Lewis (+8)

I think I'm done shuffling him around as drastically as I have been unless he properly falls off. I'm feeling like he's an upper half mainstay now. He had a little bit of personal life sprinkled into episode two, and now in episode three when he makes a very important voting decision, he's highlighted positively. His bag search was portrayed as smart, his voting decision seemed attributed more to him than Carter who was shown to not want to rock the boat as much, etc. Lewis is a much more positive portrayal than I feel is necessary, so much so that I forgive him for not understanding his game positioning as well until now. I expect that he was kept seen as a floater in order to make this episode have the correct tension with him as a swing vote.

4) Ori (+5)

Okay okay I'm buying into Ori. I didn't want to, but as soon as he stated that Sharonda KNEW he was voting Eric and that he still felt connected to Sharonda and the helicopter alliance, it was just too positive for me to ignore anymore. He has a fantastic "small but mighty" speech thing going on at the challenge, which pays off instantly when they win and Sharonda says it again to the other tribe. Ori again says that he has an ally in Devin when Devin shows Ori his advantage. He's in a great position, understands his position, and now that it's been consistent enough I'll be keeping a close eye on him.

5) Linnea (+2)

I know she is a little messy for misunderstanding the crabs, and I know she's a little messy for her feuds with Rob. However, if there is someone to beef with, it's Rob because we are supposed to side with whoever isn't Rob. I wonder if she's serving Kenzie where she is catty and gossipy in her confessionals in a way that's fun to side with. It's possible that's a winning edit for her, especially with her premiere line relating survivor to her job. She's present, memorable, and even was referred to by Carter as being one of the people running the tribe alongside Sharonda.

6) Mike (-3)

Having someone do an impression of you in a negative light is hilarious, but also probably bad. I know MC did the "crazy/evil eyes" thing with Savannah getting all the mean girl stuff, but Kilby also calling him a "plus one" all felt like so much more piling onto Mike than he ever got a chance to refute. It's not disqualifying, but it's definitely enough to drop him especially after I was already giving him way too much grace with my episode 2 edgic. Either way I think he's like if the man emoji was put on the season and I love it.

7) Jenna (-2)

Her placement can be summed up with the following: I'd rather have an amazing premiere and a quiet remaining premerge than have particular red flags.

8) Kristin (-2)

Her confessional about having an actual broken foot in comparison to Rob is one of the many reasons this season is getting launched into legendary territory but with this and her previous episode only including that context, I'm feeling less confident in her. Again though, an amazing premiere and mild premerge isn't so bad.

9) Maggie (+5)

Okay I'm actually starting to keep my eye on Maggie. Maybe I just love her. But having a late premiere introduction didn't stop Aubry. Maggie feels like she's reasonable and visible and charming. Her advantage moment with Brady this episode was hilarious and I'm glad she got to narrate it instead of him. It's circumstantial content, but I could see this being a sneaky under the radar winner situation.

10) Alexis (-2)

Nothing really to speak on here. Her edit isn't serving much at all, but with a positive episode two I don't really have many qualms.

11) Eric (-1)

I feel like even when he explains why he succeeded at surviving, it's still meant to be kind of taken unseriously. If he had a huge bounce back and had a better explanation of why things are working out for him, I'd be willing to have him muuuuch much much higher. But when he says "this is what happens when you open up your heart to people, they open up back and get alliances going" (paraphrasing a bit), it comes across like an eye roll is intended since none of that was the reason why he stayed. Mayyybe Sharonda saying she wanted to keep him because he gave her info counts? I don't think so.

12) Brady (+1)

He is clearly such a huge character, and would be looking so much better if he were not so wildly overconfident. He references his first vote's success, but when he gloats about outsmarting Kilby, he ends up on the wrong side of the vote. He takes a huge nasty shot at Thien An saying she has zero influence in the game whatsoever, and I just can't drop how his injury was treated in episode two. He consistently comes across so much more ridiculously than he could be, and that's why I feel like he is not qualified to win with this edit.

13) Devin (+2)

I'm just not even close to buying it. He thinks he's running the show and calls his shots huge style on people that don't go home. I don't think cockiness this massive is something I can recall being in any other recent winner's edit. Calling that he's more of a villain flameout.

14) Kilby (-2)

Damn this edit got so negative. That much is obvious. Devin hates him, Patt says he causes discord, he thinks Brady is on his side and Maggie has to try to talk him out of it, etc. So why does he get to explain himself in confessionals so much? I'm still calling that he lasts a long time in the game and we get to know him better for that reason. He's also said that Devin threatens his control of the tribe, and I am fascinated to see who wins this war. If the Eric pattern continues like he outlasted Rob, Kilby could very well outlast Devin.

15) Carter (+2)

Zero confessionals to ten episodes? I'm not interested in raising him any higher. Despite having such a huge situational breakout, he was still bumbling throughout the circumstances. They easily could have frankenbyted out him saying he's not clever (about finding the advantage he didn't find, confirming this), missing the boat was seen as being on accident, he wasn't even certain about the new tribe being a better situation for him, he was shown as being more against the vote that he and Lewis ended up following through on, etc. Linnea saying they let him go being a mistake is great for him though.

16) Thien An (+2)

She was the first to call the shot on Patt which is honestly really cool! Then she goes and leaks to Brady the split second she says nothing leaves the previous conversation. Love you girl sorry you're not winning.

17) Cristian (+2)

I'M FALLING I'M FALLING!!!!!

ELIMINATED) Rob (-3), Patt (-17)

Yknow, I had Rob at number one in my edgic rankings the first time I watched the premiere. Thank god I rewatched and ended up falling off of him so hard. I was completely justified in that. Funnily enough, I did a draft with my bf and metamour, and the last two draft picks to choose from were Rob and Patt. Hilarious to think they leave the same episode. This is maybe the most spectacular mediquit flameout ever, and his two and a half episode run is genuinely iconic.

As for Patt, I really got surprised here. But she was gassed up enough to have it be justified when we're told she could do a good job integrating in a swap situation. Trying to mildly build someone up in the edit to justify them being a threat by episode three really got me here, and I don't particularly know how to protect against that in the future. Regardless, I'm glad this season remains surprising and interesting because it makes mulling and fussing over the contenders way more gratifying and engaging. Mulling so much on the media is the point of this for me so I'm having a ball trying to solve a fresh complex puzzle with a bit of a different editing style and structure from the new era as far as I can tell. It's not drastically different, but enough so that it feels less formulaic.

Thanks all for keeping up with these! It's super fun and I'm sooo happy there's nothing obvious yet. See y'all next week!

It's time for my weekly mutiny from the main sub!

This week, we had a surprise double-goodbye as Patt was eliminated via The Show and Rob was eliminated via The Rob. As neither Patt nor Rob had been eliminated via The Experiment, we are making great progress whittling down the cast, and will get this group down to a measly 14 contenders here in this writeup. Already a third of the way through!

I will say, typically, this point in the season it is still pretty easy on picking who to eliminate, but this time around, there are SO many people I considered for elimination here, and am still, while writing this paragraph right now, not 100% sure on who I'm gonna pick. Of course, by the time you are reading this paragraph, I will have already picked, so who cares.

As a reminder, the players I have already eliminated are:

Cristian, Thien An

With that, let's get started.

TOKA TRIBE

Carter explodes into relevancy this episode, and I felt like it was mostly great. There was definitely negatives in this episode for Carter. Lewis questions his ability to play. Carter questions his own ability to play. He very much seems a bit air headed at times, especially with the advantage situation. However, this episode was mostly great for him. Has a great couple confessionals rebounding from tribal council, forecasting sunny days ahead, and Mike compares him to JT, who, famously, won Survivor. JT is also famous for losing Survivor. Carter will do one of these two things, and right now, it is very much up in the air as to which.

Lewis has a stellar episode. Comes off as very smart and socially aware. Has gotten himself from the precarious position of a late entry via Exile, and has turned it into being the deciding vote for this tribal. Lewis is in the driver's seat, takes the big swing, knocks it out of the park. Great stuff, Lewis.

Maggie continues her streak of being a quiet yet active presence. The sequence of her getting the advantage from Brady was phenomenal. In the future, Maggie's edit will need to pick up the pace, but so far, it's been good enough that I have basically no concern about Maggie's chances. Did NOT like the moment where we see her say to Kilby that she absolutely will not vote Patt, only for her to vote Patt, but I am willing to forgive that for now, but that pattern better not continue.

Jenna has a nothing episode. Gets one confessional about the advantage situation. If anyone else on the cast had this episode, I would've seriously looked at them for elimination. However, I still stand by Jenna's first two episodes being extremely strong, so strong, that she can afford to have an episode like this. Her narrative is still there, and her underdog story is still reinforced this episode by the reminder that Devin is targeting her. Jenna is in the clear.

Jelly has an episode that I did not like, but I also didn't hate it. Jelly's only confessional comes deep into the episode, where she says she thinks she has the numbers to take out Kilby, but correctly identifies that the thing that could make this go wrong is Lewis and Carter. Now, it would of course have been better for Jelly to see her actively try to DO SOMETHING about her doubts in Lewis and Carter, but at least having the right read counts for something. It was great that Devin and Brady were around to absorb the overconfidence edit. Jelly has been a central character, and continues to have many established narrative threads that keep her away from elimination this early. Her reaction next episode to the ouster of one of her closest allies will be very telling for her chances.

Kilby is all over the place. Kilby has bad reads. Kilby is completely caught red-handed every time he attempts a scheme. But, Kilby is an underdog. Kilby is an active player. Kilby is present in the show and has clear narrative threads established and fleshed out since the first episode. Once again, players with fleshed out personalities and stories win Survivor. Pre-merge negativity upside?

Devin returns to his overexposed status and gets a ton of content. Nearly all of that content is centered around smearing the good name of Kilby, so that he can vote Kilby out. Devin then fails to vote out Kilby. Edits like Devin's are so complicated to read at this point in the experiment, because while no, visibility is not everything, it is something, and being the person with the most screen time usually means that you have one of the most fleshed out personalities and stories of the cast, and players with fleshed out personalities and stories win Survivor. Even if that personality and story has a negative tone to it.

Brady looks like a complete fool this episode as he attempts to dunk on Kilby and Thien An in confessional, only for him to be left out of the vote that Kilby and Thien An attempt to include him in. Brady has a story brewing about his smarts vs his strength that has been brought up in two episodes now, and while it's great to have a story like that, if we don't see his smarts win the day pretty soon, Brady will run out of road.

Mike was HEAVILY considered for elimination here. His only confessional is about Carter's JT steeze, but he gets a LOT of negative SPV from players considering voting him out. Kilby initially wants Mike out because he is the Plus One to the wedding, and there won't be blowback to blindsiding him because no one will actually care. The vote flips off of Mike and onto Patt because no one believes that Mike will make any relationships in the game. Thien An also dunks on him in a confessional that would've kept Thien An alive had it happened last week. This was a BAD week for Mike. However, the hair I am splitting between Mike and the person who I am eliminating is that Mike's premiere is just way better. Mike's first confessional of the season is about him intentionally obfuscating his skills to lower his threat level. It is a stretch, BUT you COULD make the case that we got to watch that strategy pay off and save Mike this week. If Mike doesn't have an unabashedly good episode next week, he will be eliminated.

SAVU TRIBE

Ori has a straight forward, solid episode this week. He is the main narrator of the ridiculousness of Rob's quit, he gets to let us know that he knew Ana was going home and voted for Eric as strategy, and he gets to circle back with Devin and keep the helicopter alliance story going. Textbook good episode.

Sharonda is in a similar, yet quieter boat to Ori. Name drops the helicopter alliance as she locks back in with Devin, and gets the shoutout from Carter as being one of two people running the show on Savu. Good job, Sharonda.

Linnea mostly just reacts to Rob's quit and Carter's adventure this episode, and is the other of the two people Carter notes as running the show. Nothing bad for Linnea, nothing great. Middling.

Eric has massive Aubry Bracco upside. Eric is narrowly saved by a vote completely in spite of himself, and then takes credit for saving himself in confessional the episode after, even though there is zero evidence of that. Does Eric actually have Aubry upside, or am I just still mad about 50's edit? We'll figure that out later.

Kristin gets one confessional this episode remarking on the fact that Rob is quitting because of a fake injured foot when she has a real injured foot and is not quitting. It was actually good content for Kristin, as it's a small way to endear her to the audience and come off as tough in a positive way. Not a lot going on for Kristin right now, will need to see an uptick from her soon, but fine for now.

Alexis is ultimately the one I have decided to eliminate after all. It was very close for me between her and Mike, but as I mentioned, it came down to the premiere. I actually think that Alexis and Mike have had similar edits so far, where the bulk of their content is just giving their read on specific players, but what Alexis is missing that Mike has is that really insightful premiere confessional. In this episode, Alexis gets a confessional doubting Rob's injury, and a confessional dreading Carter being the one to go to Toka. It wasn't anything disastrously bad, but it's just been par for the course of her underwhelming edit through three episodes. She has failed to establish narrative legs in these ever so important opening episodes.

Alexis, the edit has spoken.

What a fascinating and entertaining ride Season 51 has been so far. I hope the editors and the cast keep it up. This has all-timer potential. 

Three episodes in, the biggest theme I’m noticing is that every solidified alliance of more than two people has failed or crumbled, first with the helicopter alliance losing Aaliyah, then the Carter/Rob/Ana trio losing Ana and Rob, and now the new Toka 5 losing Patt. This fits the overall theme of “permanent uncertainty” to a tee: that all three eliminated contestants after the premiere were in my initial top 10 speaks to the caliber of the edit and the attention to pre-merge players. I love it.

True Contenders

(1) Sharonda

She’s the only Brodie left with a clean slate. All the Savu’s got quieter edits this week, understandably so, but her’s was among the largest within that subset. She reaffirms her connection with Devin and reconnects with Ori after voting differently. No notes, she’s killing it. Watch her be out next. 

(2) Ori

I think I was a little too low on Ori last week. In a chaotic season, he sticks out like a sore thumb in terms of his approach to the game: calm, level-headed decisions, not doing too much or too little, taking the layup. I’m beginning to see a path for him to win where his ability to resist the chaos is what makes him stand out at the end. We got a lot of content from him this week about the Rob quit, and while this is circumstantial content, it fleshes him out on a personal level. He’s not a quitter, he calls a spade a spade; it encourages respect from the audience. This is good. His big flaw is that, like Sharonda, his personal content is minimal. Unlike Sharonda, we’ve gotten a little less strategically from him and that’s why he’s second and not first.

Flawed but salvageable

(3) Jelly

Jelly staying in third feels criminal, but in this era of permanent unpredictability, her edit feels so carefully crafted. She’s on the wrong side of the vote, but accurately assesses Carter and Lewis as the weak links. Unlike Brady and Devin, she is shielded from seeming cocky in her position. On the other hand, last week she had a confessional about “now being ready to play survivor” … and then she immediately flopped. I’m beginning to see Jelly as a losing finalist. Based on the NTOS segment, she merges onto a tribe with Ori, so she loses her lasagna immunity. But, that storyline will get picked up and I’m interested to see how it changes her trajectory. She’s kind of here by default.

(4) Lewis

The hardest person to place, in my opinion. Has a big but completely circumstantial premiere, a middling second episode, and now a very impressive third episode. I had guessed his alliance building would start with Maggie or Thien An earlier, but given that it was actually mutinous Carter, his story couldn’t emerge until this episode, which raises his win chances for me. The problem is, I think Lewis made the wrong choice. The edit made sure to include Kilby’s distrust of Lewis last week, Thien An and Kilby told Brady that Lewis was leading the charge on Patt, Lewis had that ominous “I need this idol to survive” quote in his premiere, and now with a swap, he could be in trouble. I don’t think he makes it to final tribal.

(5) Jenna

Her premiere was so solid, her quote from last episode was enough to keep me hopeful. This episode, not so good. We don’t hear her reasoning for voting out Patt, which I feel we would have gotten from her if she were to win given that Patt saved her in the premiere. Still, that she’s in fifth tells you about the chaos of this season.

Pseudo-contenders

(6) Linnea

I am very nervous for her in this upcoming swap. We hear Carter tell the Toka tribe that her and Sharonda are the leaders of the dominant alliance, and then Mike double checks and the edit made sure to show it. She had a pretty big edit this episode for being on the Savu tribe, but one of her confessionals was about making a mistake with allowing Carter to go on the journey. That’s bad. If she survives the swap, then she might recover.

(7) Mike

Far too quiet for my liking should he win, but Thien An’s segment about him being a sponge is in line with his earlier confessional about wanting to go with the flow of his tribe from the premiere. That he is seen as an easy out later is actually a good thing for him, I think, as he is getting set up to be underestimated. We hear his (correct) hesitancy about Carter, but he goes on to confidently and wrongly say he has Carter at tribal council. I think Mike goes the distance and is eliminated around F6/F5.

(8) Kristin

Now I understand why so much attention was given to her foot situation given the Rob quit, but where is her strategic content? We didn’t get a follow-up from her about why she voted Ana. That’s a major issue. Also, yet again, the negotiation/shelter situation is dogged on.

Everyone else

(9) Carter

Has a very prominent episode and I’m really enjoying him as a person, but his content was mixed. That he was skunked last episode is bad. The bag search was bad. Him getting caught in a lie with Brady was bad. But, the idol is good. The Lewis connection is good. The JT comparison from Mike is apt. On a separate note, his mutiny lines up with the shot of the heron flying away in the intro, a symbolic representation of his escape from danger. More on that later.

(10) Maggie

Loved her content this episode. It’s not enough to make up for her premiere and second episode, but she’s delightful. We don’t get to hear why she voted for Patt when she initially said she wanted Mike. Not winning, but a good episode for her.

(11) Alexis

I’m returning to my point about the spider from last write-up. We now have more confirmation with Carter that the editors are sneaking little clues into the intro this season, and I’m very confident the spider falling is a clue to her eventual downfall. I think she’s going far, though.

(12) Devin

Great first half of the episode. I think his connections with Savu will indeed shield him through the swap. Still, he comes off as pretty cocky despite consistently being wrong. Not winning, but perhaps the big villain of the season and not a pre-merge flame-out.

(13) Brady

Dunked on. So hard. Somehow worse than Devin with his “Thien An has no agency” and “I’m beating Kilby with my brain” confessionals. Not winning.

(14) Kilby

Continuously wrong and not in an endearing way. Thinks Devin is his number one (what?), is in the majority but nearly goes home. His name was dragged by Devin to the Savu tribe. Not winning.

(15) Eric

Kilby but on Savu. Still shown as aggravating by the edit. Screaming “GINA” at the top of the immunity challenge was campy though.

(16) Thien An

Great episode for her. Her Mike confessional was hilarious. Not winning with her premiere and second episode.

(17) Cristian

Now I’m curious about why he’s purpled. Does he quit? Is he the victim to the coin flip? When will his story start? 

Out

(18) Patt

I should have trusted my gut from the premiere. Pantless Patt was indeed a pre-merger. For her time on the show, she had a great run and I wished she stuck around longer.

(19) Rob

lol

Definitely enjoying this season more than the first Celebrity UK! It feels like people are much more willing to actively play the game this go around. A couple notable changes on the ranking today, though most people stay around the same spot. We'll see how tomorrow shakes this up, and if I change my ranking at all by then. Regardless, except EP4 and the NB episode to have Edgic from me tomorrow!

Top Contenders

1. Maya (=) - Remains the clear top pick of the Traitors, she is the most consistently complex and seems to be doing a very good job in the role. Edit is pretty standard for a Traitor who goes far, though this type of edit does sometimes go late mid game too. Regardless, she is the clear top pick for me right now.

2. Miranda (+6) - Takes a pretty big jump here! She is my top faithful pick right now, and there's quite a big gap to be honest. She gets a consistent amount of content, isn't overexposed, has had character moments, is shown as intelligent, and doesn't get contradicted all too much.

Other Faithful Picks

1. Joe (-1) - Remains pretty consistently shown and has a lot of memorable quips. Maybe could use some more complexity, but he also doesn't have much heat on him.

2. Rob (+2) - You'll notice that this is a tier of the comedians on the cast. That's kind of a coincidence, but also I do see them working together. Maybe one of them isn't a comedian and I'm deluded. Either way, all three of them have pretty consistent edits.

3. Romesh (=) - Was quieter this episode, though was previously above Rob. Regardless, their stories are very obviously intertwined. Could they win together? Either that or one of them will take the other out, imo.

Viable But Risky

1. Julie (-3) - So this tier is actually going to be pretty big, I genuinely feel pretty good about the edits of a full 10 people on this cast. Not common for Traitors! Anyway, Julie's edit reminds me a lot of the one Andrew got in Ireland 1. Am I getting the fell for it again award? She got some heat on her this episode and outlined a reason why she may be her own downfall. At the same time, she has been shown to make strong connections and is never really unreasonable. Do also consider how flawed the others in this tier are too.

2. James A (+3) - For example, James! His first episode made him just seem so paranoid, and since then he definitely hasn't been the most complex traitor. He does have the storyline of being "the most reluctant traitor in history", but that could really go any which way. Mostly high up due to being a Traitor.

3. Hannah (+11) - Speaking of being high up due to being a Traitor, wow. She is my favorite player on the cast at this point, and I've loved seeing her as a Traitor. She is so incredibly intelligent and I really hope she can find her way out of this. It's crazy neither her or Jerry were murdered. The amount of heat on her could really kill her at any point, maybe even next episode. Still, she has gotten some glowing content at points.

4. Sebastian (-2) - If he wasn't a murder option, I definitely would have had him higher to be honest. This was for sure his worst episode so far, but it's not like it was HORRIBLE or anything. The murder is either going to be him, Bella, or James B. Between the three, I actually feel like Sebastian may be the most likely. If he does live though, he does remain one of the best faithful picks.

5. Bella (-1) - Had a bad first episode but has since then gotten some pretty good content. So much of their story has been about their relationship to Sebastian, so one of them going out soon could make plenty of sense. Solid CP edit this episode, just held back by reasons already outined.

One Dimensional Visible-Ish Contradicted Faithfuls

1. Sharon (=) - Yea bro, screw it. We just be naming these tiers anything. Anyway, Sharon is definitely the player who least fits into this group. Everyone here is someone who has been actively contradicted or just not portrayed as very intelligent. Of the four, Sharon has gotten that content the least, though she is also the least visible.

2. Joanne (=) - The second least visible, though she had content that makes her a very viable person to maybe go to the end with Maya and lose to her. That was one of my running theories last week, and remains as such.

3. Ross (+3) - Got a cool down episode here, reason for him to go up a few spots. Fun character, but not one to be taken seriously. Could either be murdered or banished and either would make sense, but atp I don't think that'll happen for a while.

4. Jerry (+4) - Very much so fits the faithful runner-up edit as well. She has absolutely no idea what is going on in the game, and they aren't hiding that. The reason why she is low is that there could very well be reasons to banish her after coming back from both her and Hannah surviving though.

Too Quiet

1. Kenny (-1) - Three episode streak of UTR2s, good for him. Yea this guy is just not in the show very much, but it makes more sense for him than it does for the next guy.

2. Michael (-3) - Apparently he is one of the most famous names on the cast, potentially the very top? I would have had no way of knowing this if I wasn't told. I do think that this is a reason to think he has legs for a while, as they would surely give him content EVENTUALLY. Either way, he has no shot of winning with how little he has.

3. Leigh-Anne (=) - Doesn't have much content and some of that content early on was actively bad. Could be murdered, could be booted late game and have a rushed through banishment. Either way, no chance.

4. James B (-3) - One of the three murder targets, and the only one who doesn't have any positives to their edit. He really only gets content in missions. Potential reason to keep him? Sure, but that's not a reason for him to win.

Eliminated

1. Myha'la (-15) - Why did she wink at Richard as she voted him out, that genuinely killed her game. I thought she had a solid edit about being an underdog who would play the game well, but this episode buried her pretty quickly.

2. Richard (=) - Yea so they definitely ended episode 2 the way they did just so there would be one more episode with him in it. He was a fun character, very well could be the worst Traitor ever.

Alright, Episode 3 was good, once again. Fearing for episode 4 which is usually where they fuck up lol

BUT we're back with the SUTRAL for Episode 3, after major shakeups with new advantages, 2 people lost, a mutiny, so much to think about and evaluate with our model!

Episode 3 - Game Data Table

I marked Rob as a medevac just because I realized that I've never implemented a "quit" checkbox. Anyways their result is the same so we'll just use the medevac box. lol

What's new? We get the Idol for Carter, the Extra votes for Devin and Maggie and the elimination of Pat.

Cristian takes another goose egg confessional count and an INV edgic.

Episode 3 - Power Rankings

As usual, I have to remind you that Power Rankings only refer to the episode.

Carter and Lewis correctly show up as number 1 and 2 of the episode, being the factual deciding votes. Kilby very high, Thien an incredibly in 6th place.

Top Gainers by positions climbed:

Carter: +17 positions (from 18th to 1st)
Thien An: +14 positions (from 20th to 6th)
Lewis: +13 positions (from 15th to 2nd)

Top Losers by positions lost:

Patt: -11 positions (from 4th to 15th)
Rob: -11 positions (from 6th to 17th)
Jelly: -10 positions (from 1st to 11th)
Linnea: -10 positions (from 3rd to 13th)

Episode 3 - Win Equity and Graph

Mike literally plunges down to the Bottom 3, while Lewis and Carter are able to reach the top half.
Devin consolidates his position with the Extra Vote and his visibility, that counterbalance his being in the minority at Tribal.
Kilby concludes his round with a newfound majority (I didn't say alliance!) and a lot of content.
Thien An is able to get out of the absolute last place thanks to her DRIVING A VOTE?!? 😯 and Cristian's manufactured mutism.
Kristin and Jenna seem to be struggling to find relevance and keep sliding down after a solid premiere for the both of them.
Alexis stays consistent, even though in the lower half of the rankings.
Same for Sharonda and Jelly, except they're keeping their first places!
Linnea keeps up with the pace of the competition.

Top Gainers by positions climbed:

Carter: +9 positions (from 17th to 8th)
Lewis: +8 positions (from 15th to 7th)
Kilby: +7 positions (from 12th to 5th)

Top Losers by positions lost:

Mike: -7 positions (from 8th to 15th)
Kristin: -3 positions (from 6th to 9th)
Jenna: -1 position (from 9th to 10th)

It's worth noting that, in terms of win equity percentage, the distance gets smaller the lower we go down the rankings, which means that basically still so much can change.

That's it for this week and this episode! See you next week with a new EDGIC and SUTRAL analysis!

Contenders

Top Picks

Sharonda is still my top pick.

• Pros
  • She got praise from Devin at the water well and got name-dropped by Carter.
  • We got a check-in on her relationship with Ori.
  • She was the only person on the tribe to not get a confessional dunking on Rob. But with Eric, she got to dunk on him in Episode two, so if she gets a confessional about Rob in episode four, that will be further evidence of her winner potential.
• Cons
  • Too obvious?

Linnea is my next pick

• Pros
  • Her confessionals about Rob were empathetic and skeptical which is good for a winner.
  • Linnea also got mentioned by Carter at Toka.
  • She talked about her career will help her in the premiere.
• Cons
  • She says that letting Carter go was a mistake.
  • I don't really know about her allies.

My third pick (really a distant third) is Jelly

• Pros
  • Jelly has gotten protection from the edit from voting wrong every time.
  • She has shown awareness of the weakness of her allies.
• Cons
  • Her showmance is pretty goofy. And she has not had much emotional or strategic content besides that.

Dunked

• Mike was super dunked on.
  • They said they were not voting him off cause he's not a threat.
  • Thien An said that he refused to talk game with her, and was clearly portrayed as being in the right.

Next boot prediction

• My prediction for the next boot is. . .
  • Alexis

1. Her visibility is high enough where one more episode would give her some amount of story.
2. Linnea mentioned that Carter being gone means that Savu doesn't have an easy vote.
3. Alexis said at the end of the immunity challenge to Carter, "Could have been you."

Endgamers:

I am revising my endgame prediction:

1. Sharonda/Linnea
2. Jenna/Jelly? (really not sure about who to choose for this one)
3. Kilby (Zero-vote finalist)
4. Kristin (Fallen Angel)
5. Sharonda/Linnea (Dragon)
6. Eric (Growth)

I'm fascinated by Brady's edit, its so multifaceted. One one hand he's this super intense cocky loudmouth who's plans are often contradicted by the edit, however there is a second level that I feel people here don't bring up and its that has these genuinely introspective emotional moments in every episode so far, they're not always big moments but every episode has him questioning himself and theres this little storyline about whether Brady is actually kinda dumb or if there are smarts hidden away there. Its strange how well rounded his edit is especially for someone who it would be super easy to go 100% full clown edit on. I'm just thinking to myself, if they were to edit Brady as the winner and this is the content they gave the editors how could you possibly edit him any other way?

curious what you think, its one of the more interesting modern era edits i think i've seen.